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Antero Resources Corporation (AR)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 25, 2016

$38.70

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Antero Resources Fourth Quarter and Year End 2015 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. All participants will be in listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael Kennedy, Senior Vice President of Finance and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir. Michael N. Kennedy - Vice President-Finance & Head-Investor Relations: Thank you for joining us for Antero's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Investor Conference Call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteroresources.com where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call. Before we start our comments, I would like to first remind you that during this call Antero management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied, or forecast in such statements. Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO; and Glen Warren, President and CFO. I will now turn the call over to Glen. Glen C. Warren - President, CFO, Secretary & Director: Thank you, Mike, and thank you to everyone for listening to the call today. In my comments, I'm going to highlight our recently announced 2016 capital budget and guidance, provide or review fourth quarter price realizations and expectations going forward and cover our…

Operator

Operator

Our first question will come from Holly Stewart of Scotia Howard Weil. Please go ahead.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen. Glen C. Warren - President, CFO, Secretary & Director: Good morning, Holly.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

First question maybe for Glen, just is the balance sheet and financing has been such a relevant topic in this commodity environment. You've outlined the budget. It looks like you'll have a bit of an outspend, but obviously ample capacity on the revolver to handle it. But there is some funds drawn, so any thoughts on other ways of financing for this year? Glen C. Warren - President, CFO, Secretary & Director: Yeah, Holly, we don't have any plans to issue equity in the near-term. I think the exception to that would be if we do participate in some of the consolidation that we think will happen in the Appalachian basin over the course of the year. That would be the exception where we may consider issuing equity. But otherwise we just plan to draw on the revolver for the time being.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Okay, great. And then maybe more topical for today with the announcement of Mariner East II being delayed, you began recovering some methane this quarter, any maybe thoughts or shifts in strategy with that pipeline being pushed out? Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Holly, I think we're supporters of Mariner East, of course, and see that that project is going to be strategic for us. I think we'll continue to just maximize our netbacks within the pool. We are considering some alternative projects as well to also move our NGLs to export markets, so we'll keep those in mind. But it's really, stay in the Appalachian pool as well as transport out of the pool to maximize net returns to different destinations, whether it's Midwest or towards the Gulf.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then maybe last one for me, Glen, any thoughts around the upcoming borrowing base redetermination period? Glen C. Warren - President, CFO, Secretary & Director: We are quite positive on that. You know as in quarters gone by given the hedge book that we continue to add to in the out years and the pricing relative to the bank price deck in addition to the PDPs that we add each quarter, we foresee a positive outlook there on the borrowing base. We'd expect to see actually an increase in the borrowing base in the spring determination for us. I don't think we'll ask for additional lender commitments but the borrowing base may go up. So we feel pretty good about that spring season for us.

Holly Barrett Stewart - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks, guys Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Arun Jayaram of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Good morning. I wanted to ask you about the debates that's kind of been brewing in earnings season regarding the appropriate well spacing in the Utica to get the optimal drainage. Was wondering where you stand and perhaps, if you could comment on that? Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Where we stand, we have done pilots on 750, 1,000 foot and even 500 foot in a lateral distance. We see that as long as we're drilling the wells at the same time that 750s worked quite well. I will say in the Utica all of our reserve bookings are more conservative they are all on 1,000 foot inter-lateral. So we continue to watch but right now our economics would say, 750s work as well as 1,000s and in a PV world, they're as good if not a little bit stronger, we will continue to watch that

Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

But your inventory is on a 1,000 foot basis? Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: That's right

Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And my follow-up question just on the marketing expense, it picked up in Q4 but you highlighted how that should trend down as we think about 2016. I was wondering about your longer-term thoughts regarding marketing expense in an environment where takeaway should get better from an industry perspective and the industry is slowing down as a whole. How do you think that should trend over the next couple of years? Glen C. Warren - President, CFO, Secretary & Director: Well, there is still positive spreads if you look at the futures market. There's plenty of spread there over the next few years to capture in terms of mitigating our marketing expense, which we've been doing in the past and continue to do. So we feel good about that and I agree the trend is to flatten out a bit in terms of supply but some pipes I think we'll get delayed as well. So it's a very dynamic equation. We due to our hedge position can continue to grow pretty rapidly. So we will fill up our capacity over time. So it does go away for us at some point, so it's not a real long-term issue in terms of needing spreads for five years, ten years out there. It's really just the next few years and that looks pretty good, right now.

Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And just my final question just maybe some of your thoughts on the gas macro. We did see a smaller draw today than expected but I just wondered if you could maybe comment. Obviously you've seen a real sharp pullback in activity in the Appalachian Basin, there are a lot of ducks but maybe your views just on gas over the next 12 to 18 months? Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, of course, we like the rest of the industry are watching those variables. We are looking at, we follow, of course, rig count and local production as well as nationwide production and but I do think one of those variables that a lot of people struggle with because it's a bit of an unknown is how many ducks and what are the company's plans in completing those ducks? So that's a little bit of the X factor, the variable that's hard to fill in. But we do see very dramatic drop-off in rig activity in Appalachia, and so we're all watching for the rollover and the flattening if not the decline. So, those are our views. Watching it carefully and there is still going to be more production than we'd all like in the near-term but over time it will work itself out. It's definitely – just as across the world the weaker countries are going to fall back on oil and gas production, particularly oil just because the projects don't cut it at these prices I think you will see the same thing in microcosm in North America that we can all see the rigs dropping preferentially in the weakest plays and so it will be where the lowest cost structure is that the activity can continue and that's where we are.

Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay, thanks. Very helpful, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from James Sullivan of Alembic Global Advisors. Please go ahead.

James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. My quick one I just want to go to the FT here and I recognize this is your FTPs on your general corporate presentation on page 37 is a graphical one, but I think it's a piece of ANR that comes out of service or comes out of your FT stack partway through 2016. Can you just give me a little color on that and when it comes back in in 2017 is it the same demand charge on that piece of pipe? Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. So part of our agreement with Energy Transfer as we signed on to the Rover project was that Energy Transfer takes over the ANR piece beginning July 1 and holds it until Rover is complete to our Seneca location, and so we project that to be about a year. As we see it now, the tariff will remain the same when we take back the ANR capacity. There is an ANR rate case out there and so we will see how that is worked out to possibly increase the tariff by a little bit. We do see right now the spreads are not there on the ANR south piece very strong spreads on ANR north to Chicago and Michigan (37:01) but to the south the spreads aren't there. The question will be what will it look like in a couple of years what will flood that area with gas in the Midwest that will need to get to the gulf. It will be the REX new capacity that drops off in places like Shelbyville. It will be the Rover capacity that drops off gas at Defiance and it will be the lack of pipe that goes into Chicago. So we could see there can be a pretty strong buildup of gas in the Midwest that will need to find its way to the south and so we project that those spreads could go positive on ANR within the next year or two.

James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you. That's a lot of great color and also thank you guys on the incremental FT and marketing disclosure that was really very helpful. The second question I had was you guys have talked in your prepared remarks and I think you even talked about in the budget disclosure or budget release a week ago or so about expiring drilling and completion crews if you compare the rates you guys are paying which are obviously longer term contracted legacy rates. You compare them to today's rates there's something like I think it was 10% or 12% of potential cost savings that you guys could capture and that was going into 2017. Is there any appetite on your part or have you thought about approaching them and trading term for a little bit closer to market pricing, which would basically just be to kind of accelerate marking to market your service rates? Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. There is definitely those kinds of discussions that are underway.

James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Okay. Great. And if I could just squeeze one more in here? I just – today, the Mariner East delay notwithstanding, I know you guys obviously have the option on the Mariner East front for the propane and butane to take yourselves up to 112 Mboe a day. But can you comment at all on your interest in the capacity expansion? The East II expansion that's been bandied about – have you guys looked at that? What's your take on it, and what's your sense of the risk of putting too much uncontracted U.S. light feed into the European pet cam market? Is there any sense in which the market has its own decelerators in terms of demand, things like co-product production and whatever that might retard demand for U.S. imports coming from the U.S.? Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Those are certainly good questions and good considerations. As you're aware, we do have the right to double or there are increments that don't lead up to quite a doubling of 50,000 barrels a day on Mariner East. But certainly, there is available capacity or there would be available capacity on Mariner East. And so, I think discussions are underway and one can incrementalize, one can do shorter-term deals, one can do interruptible. So, there is a lot of flexibility there. We're looking at the arb. Of course, we watch it all the time on the arb to northwest Europe and Far East, and those have been positive lately. And you followed the shipping costs and how that's going down dramatically. So we do see the potential there, but you're right. There can be dynamics. There can be upsets in the world markets where for some period of time, whether it's months out of a year, that that can go negative. So, we're definitely cognizant of that, and we'll be keeping that in mind as we consider whether to enter into more firm commitments or do it on a more interruptible basis.

James Sullivan - Alembic Global Advisors LLC

Analyst

Okay, guys. Thanks very much for the complete answers. I appreciate it. Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from Jeoffrey Lambujon of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Company. Please go ahead. Jeoffrey Restituto Lambujon - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Thanks. Good morning. First, just a few follow-ups on some of the earlier questions. On Mariner East II, could you talk more about the alternatives that you're assessing, just given the industry shift, the dry gas drilling and really the significant drop-off overall in the industry, as you mentioned? I'm just curious about what the opportunity set looks like and how you see that changing kind of in the near term? Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I think those are still confidential projects that are going in different directions. So, there's a host of operators that are sponsoring those, going pretty much in most compass directions out of Appalachia. So, we have discussions underway. They look like valid projects. But until the operators themselves or the project developers announce it, we'll keep it confidential. Jeoffrey Restituto Lambujon - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Fair enough. And then one more clarification on the spacing comments from earlier is that – the 750 foot that you feel comfortable with – is that more respective to the wet gas window? I know you're kind of earlier days for the dry gas drilling, but wondering if is meant to kind of apply across the portfolio or again, more specific to the wet gas? Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I'd say where we've done most of our drilling is right on that transition. So, that's where we've seen our results that my comments are on is in the 1,150 to 1,250 range. So, not in the deeply rich gas and so those would be the comments there and looking on the map right here, that's about the right BTU range 1,150 to even 1,225. So there, we certainly run our economics and our returns and 750 foot works well for us. And there are trade-offs, but that's what we see as the best answer at this point. We haven't gone as far down dip in Ohio as many of the other operators, so whether 750 or 1,000 is appropriate as you go further east – not sure – we'll have to judge for ourselves.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

But we are booked on the 1,000 foot inter-lateral in terms of our feet. Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Right. Right. Jeoffrey Restituto Lambujon - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Understood. And then one last one from me just on Rover. Obviously, another pipe that the industry continues to focus on. Just given the financial distress in the Northeast right now, how do you think about that capacity and the build out and the timing going forward? And for you guys specifically, do you see benefits of that potentially sliding to the right further, just given your portfolio of ample capacity on other lines? Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, Rover right now is – we project it to come to be operational to Seneca and the Utica by mid-2017 – and so far, they are on track for that. As you may be aware, the draft EIS was issued the other day. So, as you step forward with the expected waiting periods between now and when construction could begin in the fall, it seems to still be on track operationally where it could happen by mid-2017. First of all, what if it doesn't, what if it's delayed? Then we'd have a lot of flexibility to shift capital more preferentially over to the Marcellus. We have some good takeaway projects there that we can take advantage of. So, we have good flexibility there. Then, as far as delays and whether it can help some folks, it's possible we still have plans to fill that Rover capacity ourselves pretty quickly out of the Utica once it becomes operational. Within the first year, we'll have filled up our Rover capacity. It can bode well if there is more open space that could be discounted by others for us to go beyond our contracted capacity, so it could be an advantage for us longer term. Jeoffrey Restituto Lambujon - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Thanks for the detail.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Kevin MacCurdy of Heikkinen Energy. Please go ahead.

Kevin MacCurdy - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC

Analyst

Hey guys. Given the lower level of completions in 2016, will you guys run into any minimum volume commitments from the water business? Glen C. Warren - President, CFO, Secretary & Director: Yeah. We will likely have some MBC payments in I believe in the $10 million to $15 million range for this year is the forecast. So, it's not terribly material

Kevin MacCurdy - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC

Analyst

Okay. And just one more, does your 2016 land budget include any additional acreage or is that just to maintain current acreage? Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: It's additional acreage. We picked up 29,000 net acres this last year and we expect to be continuing our success in base leasing through our trend it's both infill and extension. And so that's what the dollars are targeted towards.

Kevin MacCurdy - Heikkinen Energy Advisors LLC

Analyst

Okay, thanks guys Paul M. Rady - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks. Glen C. Warren - President, CFO, Secretary & Director: Thank you

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Mike Kennedy for any closing remarks. Michael N. Kennedy - Vice President-Finance & Head-Investor Relations: Thanks for participating on our conference call today. If you have any further questions please feel free to contact us. Thanks again.

Operator

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.