Stephen Clarke
Analyst · Oppenheimer and Company. Please go ahead
Thank you, Greg and welcome everybody to the 2016 year-end conference call. One of the headlines today is that the first ever AquaRefinery located at Tahoe Reno Industrial Center, has moved from commissioning to operational. That means that we are breaking batteries and making lead from the batteries that we've broken, both from -- both metallic lead and Aqua-refined lead. It’s continuing to ramp-up. We are not at full scale yet and there is more work to be done. But this does mark a pretty incredible milestone. It’s just over 18 months since we’ve broke ground on that facility and we have the first ever AquaRefinery up and running. We have product ready to ship and it’s a pretty exciting milestone. I know that headline, that I’m going to talk about is obviously our agreement with Johnson Control. And that really has two key aspects for us that I want to talk about. The first one is that it provides the feed and off take for the additional facilities that we've been talking about for the past two years. It fills AquaRefinery long term capacity and it moves us forward in the additional AquaRefineries that we want to build on and upgrade ourselves. But more importantly it transitions us to the start of a really exciting new phase of the company, which is licensing. So I’m going to talk a little bit about both of those. I've laid out the following agenda. Let me give you a recap of our business strategy for those who are new to the story. I’m going to go into a little bit more detail on the status of the business. I’m going to talk a little bit more about the JCI agreement, and what that mean for us. I’m going to hand over to Thomas Murphy, our CFO, to talk through the financials and then I’ll just recap with a summary. So moving on. So those of you who followed the company for some time will recognize the two graphs on this slide. But it really underpins why we started out to do what we do. The chart on the left shows the production capacity in the world of batteries, not the production value, which tends to overstate some of the newer technologies particularly, Lithium but it shows the installed production capacity by battery chemistry and what it demonstrates is that currently 96% of the world’s batteries when measured by capacity are lead acid, and despite all of the incredible growth in lithium Ion it represents somewhere in the region of 4% of batteries produced. And the chart in the right shows the growth in the production and reuse of lead over the past 20 years. And the key point is that I came up with these comparisons something like four years ago and it was something that was definitely [indiscernible] triggered the idea of building AquaRefining but it's remained true and that's one of the key points that the lead acid battery production is continuing to expand. And just recently JCI announced the $450 million in US capacity and in the last week Joe Walicki mentioned to the Wall Street Journal that JCI is continuing to expand its Chinese production. And the background to that is that one of the fascinating things about the lead acid batteries is that lead at 100% recycled. 80% of the lead or thereabouts, 80% of the lead in North American lead acid batteries has been recycled. The issue is that dominant recycling technology is smelting. It's inefficient, expensive to make environmentally complaint and produces a product which must be further refined. And that said, given that lead is already 100% recycled, there is an opportunity that for Aqua Metals to become a leader in sustainable battery technology and an innovator in the circular economy by solving the issue of finding a better faster, cheaper way of making a high performance lead. So basically, there is a $22 billion global opportunity waiting for better lead recycling technology and that's why we started out to do what we do. Looking at that market, we've been talking since inception about building a single AquaRefinery and then building a total of 800 tons a day of capacity and then rolling out with the licensing model. And the table at the top shows the relative values of those. So Aqua Refinery number one at Tahoe Reno Industrial Complex is starting out with planned capacity of 120 tons of lead per day and we're expecting to expand that to 160 tons a day. To do that we'll require 32 arc refining modules and one is at full scale at 160 tons a day. That will represent just 0.2% of global lead production and generate a revenue potential in the region of $100 million to $120 million a year. We chose and we believe it's important to grow the company to 800 tons a day. We believe the 800 tons a day is a credible global supplier of lead -- represents the credible global supplier of lead. And we started out thinking maybe we'll do that with 10. The current thinking is we’ll do that with a total of five AquaRefineries for 800 tons a day. That would require a 160 AquaRefining modules and when constructed that would be just 2.1% of global lead production representing $500 million to $600 million a year in revenue. If you look at the global lead market, the total capacity is 38,000 tons a day, and that represents something like 7,500 AquaRefining modules. That's obviously 100% and that represents $22 billion a year. So when we look at that, that kind of set the tone for our business model, which is to start with build out and operate and proved out the technology. And then move into licensee model where we provide our modular equipment on a fee per service model. And essentially what we're trying to do here is bring a brand new technology to what is essentially a commodity material, that operates in a price data market. And if you look at the occasions where a game changing technology is brought there in a similar situation, if you look at Bessemer and Nucor, what Siemen's for silica wafers while and what Pilkington did for glass. And the successful model varies to build down and operate yourself before you roll out licensing. And that's essentially what we set out to do. So moving on, building the first AquaRefinery was the key to our business plan. And we chose to start at Tahoe Reno Industrial Center. Reasons for doing that is there is a population of $33 million within an 8-hour drive. It's a growing hope for data centers and aerospace and clean-tech. There is a lot of very interesting stuff going on in the Reno Basin. It's got phenomenal infrastructure talent in logistics. It's been a historical center of excellence, the mining technology. Mining technology gets hydro metallurgies and electric chemical engineers and people who know, how to move large amounts of material through a facility. It also comes with low energy cost, phenomenal support from the State of Nevada and it's just 50 minutes by air and three hours by car from Alameda, California. Although I got to say today it's four hours by car as both the main routes are struggling with the results of the storms. But we thought it was a good idea to build there and it's turned out to be absolutely that. With that built and operational, I'm going to say more about that in a minute, we plan to expand on three fronts. The first one was to build additional facilities in North America, as I mentioned earlier, to get up to 800 tons a day. The planning basis for that is to build a number of 160 ton a day facilities. The numbers that we're looking at for that is that we expect each one of those to cost somewhere in the region of $54 million, to generate $90 million to $120 million in revenue and $20 million to $30 million in EBITDA. And this is important, our goal is to primarily fund this with debt or other non-diluting capital. And we are and have been evaluating the package of up to $250 million in non-dilutive finance to build out additional facilities. I'm going to talk a little bit more about that; as we go through the presentation. And then the next stage in our expansion is to start providing AquaRefining equipment to third-parties on a service license basis and the goal was to start with U.S., develop a blueprint for expansion internationally. One of the challenges in that is that China is the currently the largest battery market in a -- just the largest battery market. And anybody familiar with technology licensing in China knows that it's a very problematic flow with danger. So one of our biggest challenges with how are we going to start licensing in China and making a success. And then the last part of the expansion is to move to higher value products and markets. And we've noted in a number of calls, that AquaRefining can produce levels of purity, way beyond that of smelting. In fact we've produced five nines purity way than what we are very close to being able to produce commercial quantities. So four-nines purity, we are in very close, stages of producing commercial quantities of five-nines pure lead. That is phenomenal level of purity and opens up some quite high value markets. One of the other areas that we're very attractive in is the morphology and particularly, developing lead nano structures. These have the potential to significantly increase the performance and lifecycle of lead acid batteries. And the two areas where we think that could be really important is in data center backup batteries and good scale storage. There has been a presumption for a long time that lead-acid has no role to play in what could be a huge market for grid scale storage batteries. We actually disagree. We would look to the data center world, where lead-acid batteries dominate and provide everything that’s required for data center. We believe that there is scope to take a data center style battery and advance its cycle life or lifecycle performance, such that it would be a valuable good storage battery. So you will have seen us talking about data center, there is method in that. And then the last point is that, what we've done with lead. It shows that there is viable alternative to smelting in electric chemistry. That's not escaped the attention of significant players in the copper, zinc and nickel mining world, where mines are often or rather ore bodies are often remote from existing smelters and currently concentrates are shipped around the world to areas where they can be smelted. And so, in particular Nevada, parts of Australia and other parts of the world have got interesting copper, zinc and other ore bodies that are remote from smelting, where's there a little chance of building a smelter there and so there is a quite a lot of interesting, adapting our technology to displace smelting in some of those markets. This is really early stage work, but what we’re finding fascinating is the success that we have had in lead, and this actually driving a pool from all the mining companies. So moving on. So let’s talk about our Tahoe, Reno facility. As I mentioned at the start, it's now running we have transitioned out of a mostly startup phase into a commissioning phase, into an operational phase. So basically what we think we have done there, I think a key to that, we feel an incredibly experience team which is drawn from established recyclers and leading electric chemical engineers. And one of the things that we had repeatedly a number of times is that it typically takes 18 months to install commission and dial-in a battery breaking and separations machine and we have done that in less than six months. And the reason we have been able to do that, is entirely down to the insights and hard work and dedication of the management team, at the Tahoe Reno Centre, of Mike Krickel and his staff, incredibly experienced battery recycling individuals. And that’s been backed up with a pretty strong team of leading electrochemical engineers who have operated a large plant. We’ve mentioned in the last earnings call, that we have expanded that potential capacity from 80 to 120 tons a day and we’re now looking at expanding from a 120 tons to 160 tons a day. We have produced and validated 99.99 pure lead by validated that means we have sent it to battery companies. We assay everything before it leaves our facility. We knew that we produced 99.99, but that doesn’t count until the battery company says, wow you really did, and that happened. And as I mentioned we are working on 99.99% pure which is a real interesting a very high lifecycle lead acid batteries in some of the higher value applications. A key point in establishing this facility, was the Nevada EPA determined that AquaRefining is not subject in this shop and I am going to say a bit more about that in a minute. That's a really important precedent that should help our roll out and expansion, as we look to build facilities to 2 through 5. And we have moved from a single shift production to second shift and that was scalable to four shifts. I am not trying to give the impression that we’re full scale and everything is done and we’re completely on to the next one, there’s going to be quite a bit of learning and additionally - and hard work as we move forward. In particular with respect to the announcement of JCI, we are contemplating a very significant roll out of AquaRefining equipment and essentially that means that TRIC is going to have two roles now. It's going to be running as an operational facility, but it's also going to be the cornerstone of way we testing and test improvements and implement improvements like the red 1, the Red 1.2, the Red 1.3 and so on of AquaRefining before we finalize a blue print and start rolling out equipment with that parties. So, let’s talk a little bit more about some of the lessons learned in smelting, but before I do that, I am just going to recap what a smelter looks like. So we got some sense of what we are doing is different. And so the slide I am showing is a very simplified diagram of how batteries are broken and recycled in a conventional smelter. So it shows on the left, used lead acid batteries coming in, filling into a little box that says break. So and flow and I don’t really wish that was little box, in fact it’s a huge machine with a very complex series of gravity and other base separations processes that take a battery, pound into parts, separate out the lead paste, that’s a lead oxide and sulfate the - material from the lead [indiscernible], which is the grade in the top lead connectors, from the plastic, from the separators and from the acid and that’s a very complicated machine, it takes typically 18 months to dial-in. What comes out of that in a conventional smelter is lead and lead paste and that than goes into a series of processes that are entirely based on handling dry powders. They essentially, the lead paste from a battery breaker in the smelter operation is going to end up in a smelter that operates at 1,400 C. You cannot put wet product into a smelter at 1400 C, it has to be dry. So what that essentially means is that smelters dealt with a challenge of handling dry busty lead containing materials. And because of that there is above the year environmental law call the National Standard for Hazardous Air Pollution otherwise known as NESHAP which is have to regulate the mission of those lead dust and over air borne pollutants. One of the biggest challenges a smelter has to deal with there is the fact that they got dry powders. The key point is I mentioned dry powders - the other key point of the smelter is all of the lead whether it's lead chip or lead paste has to go to the smelter and then the lead produced from a smelter is known as secondary lead and that required further processing steps to turn into something that could be used in a battery. So our process is fundamentally different. We use a breaker while we use exactly the same source and equipment but our process runs wetter. And what we produce from our breaker is different in a key respect. We make the lead paste which is the active material in a batteries, lead acid, lead sulfate and spongy lead and co-compounds of those. We also separate out metallic lead which is the good lead and the top lead. That is actually quite high value lead alloy, it’s going to be produce back into good lead and it starts soft as good lead and one of the advantages of our process is we don’t have to do anything more to that, other than [indiscernible] turn into ingots and sell it as lead alloy. The other stack is that lead paste runs through a process that we’ve been calling desulphurization and then from there runs in to AquaRefining from which it's ingoted. One of the key point here is that the process that we call desulphurization in many respect is fundamentally different from the processes that operate in a smelter. We have to take -- we choose to take much higher level of the sulfur out and we do some other proprietary steps to that paste before we put into our AquaRefining process. So one of the key process is here that that we have to develop and scale was that multi-step desulphurization process. So moving on and talk a little bit about what we learned along the way. So it was the first kind, and we were surprised. There were a number of surprises encountered as we built this and we are a few months later than we hoped we would be in commissioning and transitioning TRIC from startup to operations. And I’m just want to talk about some of the lessons learned there. So starting with the input side, we spent some time dealing with jams on the conveyor belt for the breaker, calibrating the several sourcing steps in that. We had some issues with seals and bearing which required redesigns and change outs. And we accomplished all of that in six months, which I believe is quite remarkable given industry standards. Then in the processes, transporting the lead paste from the breaker through desulphurization we had a number of redesign issues around pumps and materials handling and various other aspects as we learned that there are some differences in handling our paste input to desulphurization from a convention dry powder. The desulphurization itself is a multi-step process. I’m not going to break it down because it’s proprietary but this really was the first time that we operate this at scale. We’ve been able to run the AquaRefining systems because it’s modular for several years now and to dial that technology in one of biggest challenges we had is that the desulphurization process operates in 40 to 80 tons a day of throughput. This is something you can’t really pilot or even test in a lab. It has to be built or worked out in real-time. It’s a unique process and the big news is that we’ve got that dialed in now and it’s operating. That means that we can provide feedstock to the AquaRefiners and make AquaRefined lead. And then along the way we've chosen to take that high 8% in operation to look at design improvements and other improvements to the AquaRefining system to support what is now going to be an accelerated licensing rollout. So we learned a lot, we're going to continue to learn. One of the new roles at Tahoe-Reno is going to be make sure that we are the best we can be before we start rolling out Aqua-Refining equipment to JCI under the licenses. So now I'll talk about the JCI agreements. There is really three phases to this, the first agreement is a tolling and lead purchase agreement in which JCI provides feedstock on a tolling basis. That means they provide the batteries and provide a fee for us to convert those batteries into lead that we provide back to JCI. Separately JCI has agreed to purchase pretty much all of the lead output from Aqua Metals is merchant in business that means when we buy batteries, take ownership of them and turn into lead JCI is interesting in buying all of that. We probably have agreed to limit that to the all --business in the first instinct but it's not completely limited to that we can supply through our applications as well. Aqua Metals will continue to promote pure AquaRefined lead, the station reapplications and that's one of the things that I mentioned earlier. We think there is massive growth in lead acid batteries in datacenters and grid scale storage. And once we required for that high purities of lead we're exploring that. But the bottom line about the JCI lead tolling lead purchasing agreement is that it secures the feedstock and off take for us to build additional Aqua Refineries in big partner the largest battery company in the world. We secured the feedstock and off take that we need to build out in North America. Then we look at the equipment supply agreement. This is a non-exclusive equipment supply agreement but it is also provides first mover advantage to JCI. We are viewing it, very much like my experience in a former life in aerospace, where when you build the new engine and putting onto an aircraft, you chose the launch customer very carefully with them to make sure that, that engine works on that airframe and it meets the requirements of the airline that the customer wants to. So it is a partnership and in which you develop a blueprint for how you provide the engine to other airframes and other airlines. So that's essentially the nature of this agreement. It's starts with retrofitting existing smelter facilities and they'll building a new AquaRefining facility for JCI in North America. And the scope as JCI and its supply partners in NAFTA, China and Europe. So the first mover advantage clauses of the supply agreement essentially mean that we will work with JCI not the China or Europe before rolling out to other licensees. And there's really two phases to this, the first one is to retrofit an existing NAFTA based facility and use that to develop a blueprint. It is important to know that once we have built a Greenfield AquaRefinery nobody has taken an existing smelter and converted into a wide -- process. So we expect this to be a big learning exercise. One of the things that we're thrilled about is and working with JCI we're got a highly credible North American partner in which we can collaborate to figure out what is the optimum way to bring AquaRefining into smelter. And then when we figured out that blueprint we're going to roll out in the rest of Nafta China and Europe based on that blueprint. And then the final part of the agreement with JCI was an investment in Aqua Metal's 939,000 shares for 11.33, for a total of over $10.5 million -- and that represents just under 5% of Aqua Metal's outstanding shares. And we think that is a pretty nice agreements together for us it's remarkable and we'll really, really excited to be working with JCI on this. What does it all mean? Well, we have been working on this agreement with JCI for a number of months now, and looking at the tolling lead purchase agreement, I alluded for this a moment ago, it pretty much gives us all the supply. If we take what we've got with Interstate Batteries and Battery Systems Inc., and then lay on top, the demand and supply and off-take with JCI, it gives everything that we need to scale from 160 tons to 800 tons a day. As we've been talking to JCI for a number of months, we've been talking to providers of debt and non-dilutive finance for a number of months and we're looking at a $250 million package of finance, which really needs a high credit worthy third party to supply the batteries and take a lead. And so we believe that the bond we have with JCI and Interstate and Battery Systems Inc., actually meets a prerequisites for the supply and off-take part of a $250 million non-diluting finance package that will take us from AquaRefinery [indiscernible] there is a lot promising to actually close any particular debt finance package, but it certainly moves as a giant step forward to be able secure that. The second point is partners with the world’s largest battery company as our first licensee and I don’t think anybody could wish for a better partner to start licensing. And we believe that with JCI, and looking at retrofitting, we can absolutely transform the supply chain or reverse logistics of a $22 billion industry, there is no better partner to start with. But it’s also a key to our China strategy, you may recall a few minutes ago that as I said, when we looked to licensing one of the biggest challenges is how do we go to the largest market, when the largest market is China, and so many companies have failed in taking technology to China. So the important thing for us is JCI I has, already has extensive money factoring facilities in China and it stated last week that it wants to add more capacity. So, basically JCI gives us a low risk entry into another wise challenging market. It gives you the partner that we feel worth with entrust we can develop a blueprint in North America and then establish not just a foothold, but a significant presence in China through our relationship with JCI and then we can expand that into other trusted the parties in China. And last but not least. It provides us a trusted partner to evaluate the high performing materials that we are alluded to earlier. So moving on, I’m going to hand over now to Tom Murphy, who will take you through the year-end.