Bill Stone
Analyst · Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Please go ahead
Thanks, Ghen. And thanks to all of you for joining our call. I am going to start today by providing you with specific data points on what is happening in the business right now and how we're ramping into the December quarter, our highest volume quarter of the year. Second, I will then discuss some operational details on each of our business segments in the September quarter. Third I will review our guidance and finally wrap up with some more strategic thoughts on where we see the business going and how Digital Turbine fits into that. Andrew will take you through the numbers before we open it up for Q&A. First, in what's happening in our business today; we just finished October, recording our strongest month in the history of the company at $7.8 million in revenue. And early November has continued on the same trend. Although we are only in the first week of November, our DT Media, Appia Core and content businesses are all now equally contributing to our revenue reflecting the rapid growth in our DT Media business. Our October results are 340% organic growth on a reported basis and 82% higher on a pro forma basis compared to last October assuming we had owned Appia for all the entire year. Our October results set us up for a good holiday selling season. I am excited that we have strengthened our financial flexibility to feed our long-term growth with our recent financing. The material drivers for our top line growth including specific improvements in yield per device, number of devices sold, new customers and demand from advertisers are all happening right now and we are very excited about the business we are building. Specifically, all of our U.S. carrier partners are currently running at least eight slots on nearly all their devices. Assuming they continue with the eight slots, we anticipate this should yield, a yield per device exceeding our $2 guidance range for the fiscal year. Combined with the expected increase in volumes of holiday device sales, overall DT Media revenues should materially ramp in the December quarter. We expect that ramp to continue as we launch our Ignite folders that will further expand slots in a more organized fashion. We're collaborating with the device OEMs to launch this feature during the March quarter with our larger operator partners. With the recent announcement of our AT&T contract, in the past 90 days we've added new distribution partners for Ignite that have over 500 million mobile subscribers. These customers will begin to materially ramp as we get into calendar 2016, as we have visibility into their deployment plans. I will come back to those deployments in a moment. On the advertiser side demand for inventory on the home screen continues to be robust. As discussed previously, we have strong advertising demand from brands such as Uber, Lift, Pandora, King and so on, but are also adding brands and applications such as Starbucks, eBay, Walmart, Walgreens and Open Table. With our improving targeting capabilities and advertising spend for the holiday season, this should also help drive improved CPP and CPI rates. Let's now get started on some operational details around each of our businesses for the September quarter. First, the overall Content business had a strong September quarter that was up 6% sequentially in constant currency driven by growth in new partners in DT Pay and Marketplace. The DT Pay business continues to be robust as carrier billing is a strategic necessity for many content providers wanting to have direct relationships with their customers. For example, in Australia and Southeast Asia, we're working with Electronic Arts to help acquire new customers with direct mobile advertising campaigns and then using DT Pay as a simple direct billing method. This is promoting content and applications directly to the customer, outside of the traditional app stores. As consumers in Australia migrate away from carrier portals to purchase content the Australian Marketplace business is beginning to decline but this is being offset by the growth of Pay in Australia and Marketplace opportunities in other markets. In particular, we have won all the existing games business from Globe in the Philippines using our Marketplace platform. Today this is worth over $1 million in existing revenue per year to Globe and we expect that move to be completed in February. As part of our expansion into Southeast Asia, we have grown our Pay connectivity into all the key markets. In particular, we expect to launch in India, in January, with multiple services and partners and expect to add another 20 customers in Southeast Asia over the next six months. We are working on further expanding Pay connectivity to scale globally and provide our existing global publishers with the ability to monetize via carrier billing and expect this to also launch in the March quarter. Given the geographic shift we are seeing occurring from Australia to Southeast Asia in the Marketplace and Pay business we expect to drive double-digit growth in the Content business for the second half of this fiscal year. Now turning to our Advertising business. First, for Appia Core as I mentioned above, we saw nice 14% growth from the June quarter to the September quarter driven by strong spend by numerous customers, including Pandora. While our install location metrics can fluctuate a bit from quarter-to-quarter we are now seeing over 70% of our installs occurring outside the United States. This is important as it shows our ability to leverage the DT infrastructure for the Appia sales efforts outside the U.S. as well as our growth from Chinese publishers. Outside of one event driven quarter in 2013, this was Appia's best quarter in the history of the company including the historically strong holiday quarters of years past. We are very focused on adding additional supply sources to meet the over $10 million of demand we have from advertisers today. Short-term we're finding the biggest barrier to accelerating growth in the Appia Core business in ensuring we have supply of sufficient quality to which to run all the advertiser demand. From an industry perspective as many of you know, there are many supply channels who just resell traffic to other supply channels. This can cause an advertisers demand to run on undesirable channels which hurts the brand of the advertiser and the performance of the ad. One of Appia's core competencies is managing this dynamic by ensuring only quality supply is running at the front end. More strategically the launch of programmatic and real-time bidding which are planned for early 2016 will add quality supply sources as we will be able to use quantitative metrics to bid on quality traffic versus solely striking business development relationships on a syndicate network. This investment is a use of proceeds from a capital raise that will both improve the revenue growth in the March quarter and beyond, while also improving gross margins by keeping the volume running through on algorithms. For DT Media, which includes our Ignite and IQ solutions, we saw 27% top line growth quarter-over-quarter. While still representing a ramp we were not pleased with this result as device sell through dipped our projections and yield per device was $1.32 due to a combination of factors; including, running some free apps for operators, some sent away for the holiday season, some contribution globally from developing markets that pulls the weighted average down and finally some advertisers waiting for more specific segmentation, which is now live. This targeting of campaigns is generating material increases in CPP or cost per placement. When we don't use targeted campaigns we see advertisers willing to pay us anywhere between $0.30 to $0.50 CPP. When we use targeting we are now seeing average CPP rates rise to $0.60 to $0.70. Further we now have the operational infrastructure to launch these campaigns at scale as we have integrated our back end Ignite, Appia ad serving and targeting tools into a single system. Combined with the expected slot expansion we do expect yield per device to meet or exceed our $2 guidance for the full-year and we will continue to provide updated yield information and empirical data to help investors more precisely forecast this important growth driver of the business. As mentioned in today's press release, we expect all of our Americas customers to expand their slots for the December quarter to between 8 to 10 from an average of four in the prior quarters, which should materially impact the DT Media ramp. For example, if we had four slots at $0.46 CPP times 1 million devices, that is $16 million of revenue. If you have eight slots at $0.40 times 1 million devices, that is $32 million of revenue. While we need to ensure their administrative return on each incremental slots in terms of open rates, CPP rates, et cetera, in simple terms more slots means more growth and performance. We're also focused on our international ramp-up of Ignite revenues. Although still not as material as we would like our October Ignite and IQ international revenues were 50% higher in October compared to September. The ramp-up of international existing customers is a major focus for us to improve and to begin that improvement we will be expanding our relationship with Deutsche Telekom for four additional markets in early 2016. Vodafone continues to perform strong in Australia and our Philippine business is ramping each month. While our relationship with MSAI India is the perfect strategic solution to address the fragmented Indian device distribution market, as we have mentioned in previous calls, we continue to have operational and commercial challenges coordinating DT Ignite integrated on the dozens of OEMs in China and other emerging countries that sell devices into India. This is a dynamic we continue to work to improve and I plan on personally meeting with one of the MSAI founder's to ensure we are addressing this. It's an enormous opportunity for both us and MSAI, but we just need to lean in further and execute on it. And finally our recent announcement of new customers has helped strengthen our pipeline. As you have heard me say many times, winners in the technology space win disproportionately as momentum creates additional momentum. As a result of our recent announcements, we have had incremental inbound interest from numerous new potential customers. We need to balance our ability to execute, launch and scale the customers we have against this new potential demand. But the bottom line is that the thesis of great timing and winning tends to create more winning is now being validated. We continue to install IQ on new T-Mobile and Vodafone Android devices. Our key learning today is the importance of placement. On both operators when we place the IQ widget on the right swipe of the home screen we see 75% higher revenues for that device compared to an IQ is put in the operator app folders. Given it is in everyone's interest to dive additional engagement revenue we're working on placement been consistent across all devices. Regarding new customer deployments, in the past few months we have announced new relationships with mobile operators that account for over incremental 500 million subscribers globally. We have also recently launched with both Clearwire which is here in the United States and 2degrees in New Zealand. Both are relatively small operators with over 1 million combined customers, but are important strategically for a couple of reasons. First, Clearwire is a very flexible innovative partner who is collaborating closely with us on numerous trials and experimentations that will allow us to bring those results to larger partners without disrupting the more predictable revenue streams we have today. Clear is employing both IQ and Ignite on all their new Android devices. And 2degrees has launched Ignite on existing versus new devices. This is an important case study we use with other customers that Ignite is not just for new devices but can be used on devices already launched in the marketplace. Now I'd like to talk about our fiscal 2016 guidance. As we have discussed before when we have solid empirical data our forecasting of future revenues is on or above forecasts. This includes Appia Core, Content and our larger Ignite customers. Where we have had revisions is around applying the correct discount rates of risk for the exact launch and timing dates and ramps of new customers. The Appia Core, Content and existing stable of Ignite and IQ customers are all ramping in the recent edition of U.S. Customers and their expansion of inventory slots is extremely promising. We are expecting to be on eight or more slots across all of our U.S. customers for the holidays which is potentially eight figure incremental impact on our revenues this year. The risk here however is that any customer can decide to change the number of slots lower or higher any time. While we know four slots is the floor, the ceiling could vary by device by operator and so on. Further we can't predict device sell through without accuracy and we want that better empirical data and visibility to drive our guidance. So we currently have a revenue outlook of $110 million to $130 million in the public domain for this fiscal year ending March. We are not adjusting it or reaffirming it today. As I mentioned earlier we are off to a strong quarter with October at $7.8 million and given that we're in the midst of a seasonal build towards holiday selling we want to avoid the risk of which [sign our analysts and] investors are planning to come back to investors in December. We will have a call to review current quarter performance to-date and give you an assessment and update of our outlook for 2016. At that point we will have the following three things. First, we will have early holiday device sales and sell throughs. Last year the five-week period from Black Friday until the end of the year accounted for over 50% of the Ignite devices sold in the entire quarter. Having this early holiday selling season visibility, will improve our visibility to the full year. Secondly, will be the expanded slot impact that we can provide actual results to better forecasts against our empirical data. And finally we are going to have better visibility into the precise timing of new customers we've announced plus some we have not announced. We anticipate having very specific devices and customer launch dates confirmed over the next 30 days. All of this will allow us to come back to you with more precise figures on the annual guidance versus risking over under shooting numbers that are highly dependent upon factors we don't 100% control. We are committed to improving expectations management and trust this effort will provide greater clarity for investors. For the longer term we expect the new contracts we have signed for all these new customers will be worth tens of millions of dollars in revenue in fiscal '17 at gross margins in excess of 50%. We expect the see MTS, Millicom, American Movil and Cricket to positively impact our March quarter and AT&T to impact our June quarter. Cricket will be implementing our silent Ignite install solution which is similar to what we deal with other existing customers. Cricket has over 5 million subscribers and has been aggressive at adding new Android devices. AT&T will be implementing our Ignite 2.0 solution which includes a setup wizard. This setup wizard allows customers to preselect which applications they want at first boot. We will be launching the setup wizard with other customers earlier as well but given the complexity and unique requirements of AT&T we want to be conservative on the timing of launch given our history of forecasting. We do expect AT&T to install Ignite on other new mainstream Android devices and will provide more clarity on the specifics on this growth as we are closer to launch. And finally before I turn it over to Andrew, I want to mention a few strategic areas of investment for us. The industry is evolving rapidly. One global macro trend is the trend towards increasing BYOD or bring your own device by consumers. For us this trend means that finding additional ways to install Ignite via OEMs and via other technical means such as the SIM card become increasingly important. You will see additional news from us on how we are meeting this marketplace trend for continued Ignite growth. In addition to the specific trend the data science, the growth of mobile, the growth of devices beyond smartphones, the dynamics of Big Data and targeting and the competitive landscapes all are moving very quickly. Our mission is to get the right app to the right customer at the right time. A very simple thing to say, but a complex thing to accomplish with over 6 billion devices in the marketplace and many, many millions of apps. The key is to execute on that mission, our improved data science, the integration of our products, the integration of our content filtering technologies, ability to migrate to SIM solutions for Ignite and a slick front end engagement experience for the end user. The past 90 days has seen material progress on positioning our company to the perfect place. The groundwork that has been laid with these newly announced contracts, expansion by existing customers for additional applications and the integration of Appia DT and XYO assets into a comprehensive product suite is now real. While we all like things to happen faster, bottom line is that they are happening and our timing is so perfect. I want to conclude my remarks by conveying my enthusiasm on the progress we are making against the larger vision of the company. I know many investors are understandably focused on very near-term issues like current guidance, lockups, specific types of metrics, new customer launch dates in March versus May and so on. And while we do fully understand how important those issues are to address, I want to bring additional focus against the larger narrative of where we are going as a company. Our objective is to build a business with sustainable long-term growth for years to come and the balance of short-term execution with this long-term vision and planning are equally key. With that I will turn it over to Andrew for the numbers.