James Zelter
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thanks, Marc. In our business, there is no finish line. We set ambitious goals, deliver on them and push for more. We focus on the end, delivering today and building for what's next. We don't see those as competing priorities, we must do both. That's what separates a good quarter from an enduring franchise. We're doing all of this in a world of knowns and unknowns, which is the way we've always thought about risk at Apollo. We think about what's happening on the field or what's knowable and visible and off the field where tail risks and unknowns live. So let's start with on the field, as Marc noted. We see a strong economy, solid employment, accommodative policy and open capital markets. We're also seeing historic capital investment across infrastructure and energy, defense, manufacturing and compute. Companies are investing enormous amounts of capital, and that is creating tremendous opportunity for our broad origination businesses. Off the field, governments are levered while consumers aren't, a geopolitical reset is taking place, and we are in the middle of the largest tech investment cycle ever witnessed. In addition, inflationary pressures amid the robust funding backdrop are putting an upward bias on rates. In an environment where valuations remain high, spreads are tight and risks are rising, the logical conclusion, as Marc noted, is to take risk off, position defensively and prepare for the opportunity to play offense. And that's exactly what we're doing. In credit, this means moving up the stack, prioritizing senior secured. In equity, this means moving from levered to less levered or unlevered. You're also seeing this defensive posture with respect to the assets we're originating. Of the record $114 billion of origination activity in the quarter, $98 billion was debt, of which more than 80% was investment grade with an average rating of BBB+. And that brings volume over the last 12 months to $356 billion. And looking at the near-term pipeline, we continue to see strength over the next couple of quarters. Importantly, we're originating credit with attractive, durable spread. On investment-grade origination, we generated excess spread of 285 basis points over treasuries or approximately 200 over comparably rated corporate indexes. On sub-IG origination, we generated an excess spread of 430 basis points over treasuries or approximately 160 over comparably rated corporates. A few recent examples that demonstrate our origination leadership and the diversity of our -- across our franchise include, in energy and power, a $1.5 billion financing for Keppel's offshore fund to monetize offshore rigs, CAD 2.7 billion for Enbridge's natural gas pipeline expansion in British Columbia, and $9 billion of structured equity for ONEOK, one of the largest midstream companies. In infrastructure, a strategic partnership with Atlantic Aviation, one of the largest fixed-based operators, valuating the company at nearly $10 billion, and these are mission-critical assets with irreplaceable footprint of the nation's busiest airports. In sports, as noted, a $2.6 billion investment in credit and equity in the Yankees parent company, the team's first institutional capital partnership in more than 50 years. And in compute, we led a $40 billion GPU financing for SpaceX. And like Broadcom before it, SpaceX is a prime example of our flywheel at work: sourcing, structuring, investing and syndication. We built this platform to provide capital at scale, and we believe few, if any, in our industry can do what we do. Now for the hot topic that's on everyone's mind: AI. As students of history, we know that America has financed roughly 10 great CapEx cycles in 200 years, from canals and railroads to electricity and shale, and most have been between 2% to 3% of GDP. What's unique at this point with AI is who's spending the capital. The major players are scaled, investment-grade franchises with high gross margins and historic-high free cash flow conversion. Against this backdrop, we frequently ask ourselves, how are we approaching the AI financing opportunity? Again, this is about knowns and unknowns. So what do we know? We know that society will use dramatically more computing power in the future. The demand for energy will rise with it. The demand for chips will remain strong. And then AI capabilities are improving in an extraordinary rate. What we don't know is how pricing and economics will evolve or which parts of the ecosystem will earn an attractive return on the capital being committed. We also don't know the full spectrum of what the societal or regulatory implications of AI are going to be. And for these reasons, our origination and investment activity has been predominantly focused on the capital and balances we see in 2 sectors: power and chips, 2 areas where we see attractive risk-reward and that we have high conviction. Our goal applied to open -- to AI-related assets or otherwise is simple: beat a basket of IG public debt with better structure, better security and better spread. Let's start with power. We know that we've underinvested in energy for decades in this country and that power is a large part of the cost structure in building compute capacity. We see financing energy so long it's competitively and costed properly as compelling opportunity. With chips, we know this will require a look at the global supply chain. You can look at every chip fab across the globe that is capable of producing advanced semiconductors, and reasonably conclude that the GPUs and TPUs will be in short supply for the next several years. Therefore, financing that fully amortizes over a fixed period, assumes no residual value and is further supported by guarantees from IG counterparties, offers the best combination of safety and return that we can lend against for our capital. As we have noted previously over the last couple of years, when you think about the circa $8 trillion of through-cycle CapEx, it's clear that no single source of financing can meet the demand. Operating cash flow enough -- alone won't be enough, neither will the public debt or equity markets. It's going to what we call all precincts of capital to step up from banks to the public markets to private capital. Private capital will play a pivotal role, and we intend to participate most prominently in opportunities where we're lending on a secured basis. Our high-grade capital solutions franchise puts us in a strong position to do just that, having originated more than $150 billion across 200 transactions to date. As the world's leading companies look for new ways to finance their growth in many industries, Apollo continues to be the partner of choice. Our broad financing toolbox, scale and flexibility are making us an increasingly important part of conversations in boardrooms around the globe. While the opportunity is massive and compelling, we will remain disciplined. After 40 years in the business, my rule is simple: never take equity-like risk for debt-like returns. Touching briefly on investment performance. Our strong origination capabilities set the foundation for differentiated returns we provide to our clients. Hybrid solutions had another excellent quarter, up nearly 5%, and 18% over the last 12 months. And across credit, LTM returns were anywhere between 4% and 7%. Even where higher rates were a headwind in the corner -- quarter, opportunistic credit and multicredit beat their indices by 40 and 80 basis points, respectively, and have solid LTM returns. As Marc noted, turning to capital formation, we're on track for a record year in Asset Management. Total inflows were $53 billion for the quarter, $35 billion in Asset Management and $19 billion at Athene. And Asset Management inflows were roughly 2/3 credit and 1/3 equity and broad-based client types and geographies. Institutional also had a strong quarter from hybrid and credit to infrastructure and flagship private equity. AMAPS, which we've talked about in the past, demand remains very high. Our sixth issuance at quarter-end brings the program to $30 billion in just over a year. And on the back of strong direct lending demand from institutional clients, we launched ADL 3 ahead of schedule with the first close expected in the coming months. In Global Wealth, we raised $4 billion, a strong result against industry-wide softness with flows up sequentially in both semi-liquid and drawdown strategies. Private credit direct lending, which has faced a lot of questions about durability this past year, is doing well for us. The answer is returns. Our flagship ADS strategy, $25 billion in size, has delivered an 8% annualized return since inception, more than 400 basis points over high yield and 800 basis points over safe IG. And in 2026 has been strong as well in absolute and relative terms. At Athene, retail contributed $10 billion, with RILA setting its third straight record of over $1 billion for the quarter. And funding agreements added $6 billion and flow reinsurance, $2 billion, respectively. With more than $60 billion of inflows year-to-date, Athene is on pace for another solid year and continues to extend its leadership in Retirement Services. Taken all together, Q3 was punctuated by record origination, strong flows, strong and solid investment performance. We enter year-end with robust pipelines and confidence in our ability to carry the momentum forward. With that, over to Martin.