Earnings Labs

Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 31, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Third Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode and later we will conduct the question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions). And as a reminder, the conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host Mr. Mike Magusiak. Please go ahead sir.

Mike

Management

Magusiak

Management

Tiffany

Management

Kice

Management

Mike Magusiak

Management

Thanks, Tiffany. We believe that we have developed and are executing on a very solid strategic plan to increase comparable store sales, grow our concept with both domestic and international new locations and improve our profit margins. I believe that these strategies in combination with returning capital shareholders will enhance long term shareholder value. After posing positive same store sales of 1.6% and 2.9% in both Q1 and Q2 respectively with 5 out of 6 being positive, sales declined in Q3 by 2.1%. We attribute the decline in the third quarter primarily to a significant decrease in birthday party sales and secondarily to increase competition from kids’ movies along with overall political and economic uncertainties for our guest. To address declining birthday sales, we have modified our marketing plan to include a newly developed birthday commercial. It’s started airing two weeks ago with increased birthday media weights. In regards to kids’ movies during the third quarter, revenue from kids’ movies rated G&PG increased by approximately 65% or 320 million compared to the same period in the prior year and primarily during the first part of the third quarter. This increase in kids’ movies is significant considering that our total revenue during the quarter was 196 million. On a year-to-date basis, we believe that movies have not materially impacted sales. Comparable store sales for the third quarter declined in both absolute dollars in compared to the positive sales trend through the first half of the year; however, comparable store sales in the first three quarters of 2013, remain positive for each of our four regions. In the first four weeks of the fourth quarter, sales trends have turned positive, increasing 0.4%. Now, I would like to share with you the key enhancements to our plan to increase comparable store sales. First,…

Tiffany Kice

Management

Thank you, Mike. Through the end of October our comparable store sales are positive 0.8%. At this time, we expect comparable store sales to be relatively flat for the fourth quarter and the related diluted EPS for that period to be in a range of $0.15 to $0.19. Additionally in regards to 2013, we expect to open eight to nine net new company owned stores. We have opened eight new stores through the third quarter, including one relocation and have closed three stores and anticipate opening five to six more in the latter part of the fourth quarter and closing one additional store. Average cheese block prices to be in the range of $1.75 to $1.85 per pound for the fourth quarter; depreciation and amortization for the year remain relatively flat with the prior year; rent expense for the year to increase approximately 4% to 5% from the prior year; advertising expense for the year to increase approximately $6 million from the prior year; capital expenditures to range from approximately $75 million to $80 million; and payment of four quarterly dividends totaling approximately $17.3 million. In regards to fiscal 2014, we intend to open $12 to $15 new stores including three relocations and one franchise acquisition; capital expenditures are expected to range from approximately $70 million to $75 million and advertising expenses anticipate to increase approximately $1 million from the prior year. I will now turn the call over to Dick for some concluding remarks.

Dick Frank

Management

Thanks Tiffany. Although we are disappointed with our comparable store sales performance in the quarter, we are somewhat encouraged by the early sales results of the fourth quarter. More importantly we believe in our plan and continue to evaluate and enhance our strategies to further drive future performance. Enhancements to our plan to increase comparable store sales include; a revised strategy of capital reinvestment in which we will impact each company location every two years. The introduction of new major entertainment attractions; the continued execution and involvement of our value proposition; and a revised marketing plan for 2014 based upon our lessons learned in 2013. Highlights on a year-to-date basis for 2013 through the end of the third quarter include; total revenues increasing 2.8% or $17.5 million to $643.2 million; net new store revenue increasing $12.5 million; comparable store sales increasing $5 million or 8:10s of 1%; store level margins increasing 120 basis points; and finally earnings per share increased 11.2% to $2.78 a share. On October 29, 2013, our Board declared our fourth quarter dividend with a 13% increase to $0.27 per share. We remain committed to returning capital to our shareholders and note since beginning of fiscal 2010 we have returned through dividends and our share repurchase program approximately $230 million or 39% of the $595 million in operating cash flow generated over the same period of time. At this time, Mike, Tiffany, and I, would be glad to take any questions that you may have.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from the line of Mike Gallow. Please go ahead sir.

Mike Gallow

Analyst

Mike, can I just dig in a little bit on some of the pricing and promotional adjustments? How much is average ticket op as a result of that? And how do you know or do you have any research that indicates that those adjustments haven’t hurt your customer traffic? Thanks.

Mike

Management

Magusiak

Management

Mike Gallow

Analyst

Great. In terms of just the price increase that you’re testing, could you elaborate at all on when you think that would roll out, if it’s still preliminary what you’re see in the test et cetera? Is it simply just a reduction of the number of tokens and packages? Are there other elements to it as well?

Mike

Management

Magusiak

Management

Mike Gallow

Analyst

Great and then just can I just drill in the birthday parties, little more on what’s happened there? If I go back a couple of years ago with ticket blaster, you had a lot of momentum and it seems like you’ve really lost that momentum. So help me with that a little bit. Obviously that’s really not susceptible as much, at least the kid’s movie calendar. So help us one with what you think happened there and a two little more detail on what you’re doing to improve that side of the business?

Mike

Management

Magusiak

Management

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Will Slabow. Please go ahead.

J. R. Bisel

Analyst

Hey guys this is J. R. Bisel here on the call for Will. Digging deeper on these birthday sales, I'm wondering Tiffany mainly if you saw a deceleration in specific months or was it steady throughout the quarter, these sales trends for the birthday parties.

Tiffany Kice

Management

In third quarter, period 7 was down 11.1%, July sorry, August was down 12%, September was down 9.5%. So I'd say pretty consistent over that quarter, first half.

J. R. Bisel

Analyst

And switching gears here, you know, I know you just spoke to the additional sales, sorry the additional advertising spend in the last couple of weeks and you saw a nice acceleration in the first few weeks of 4Q, outside of those birthday, those bookings being flat did you see anything else that kind of helps you get into that positive territory?

Tiffany Kice

Management

When I look at, you're meaning in October?

J. R. Bisel

Analyst

Yes, in October, sorry.

Tiffany Kice

Management

I'm feeling pretty good about October. I mean it’s just four weeks. So you got to kind of take that in perspective and we're going into a holiday season with low volume. But when you kind of back out your birthday parties and you look at just your comparable store sales of everyday that was positive more than the 0.4. The birthdays were down about 8%.

Mike

Management

Magusiak

Management

J. R. Bisel

Analyst

And can you remind us how long this promotion is going to run in the stores?

Mike

Management

Magusiak

Management

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions), our next question in queue comes from the line of Michael Halen. Please go ahead, sir.

Michael Halen

Analyst

What percentage of customers came to play games only in the quarter?

Tiffany Kice

Management

Well if you look, basically 54.9% is entertainment and merchandise sales. Game only is typically what - around 10% - 12%.

Mike

Management

Magusiak

Management

Michael Halen

Analyst

Okay, that's a positive. I think the Freebirds promotion makes a lot of sense. You can possibly mitigate some lost business due to some of these kid movies. Do you have any additional movie tie-ins planned for 2014?

Mike

Management

Magusiak

Management

Michael Halen

Analyst

Okay, and finally can you please give us some color on how you expect the 2014 unit openings to shake out throughout the year?

Mike

Management

Magusiak

Management

Operator

Operator

And at this point we have no more questions in queue.

Mike

Management

Magusiak

Management

Operator

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T's Executive Teleconference Service. You may now disconnect.