Liz Perkins
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Thank you, Justin, and good morning. Top line performance for the fourth quarter continued to be strong with total portfolio revenue up approximately 19% to the fourth quarter 2021 and 3% to the fourth quarter 2019. Continued strength in leisure demand and recovery in business travel during the quarter enabled us to achieve RevPAR of $103, an improvement of 16% over a strong fourth quarter in 2021 and 7% as compared to fourth quarter 2019. ADR for the quarter was $147, approximately 12% ahead of both the fourth quarter 2021 and 2019, and occupancy was up 3% to the same period in 2021 and down only 4% to 2019. Preliminary results for January show continued strength in demand with occupancy of approximately 64%, just 4% shy of January 2019. With leisure and business demand seasonally lower, ADR growth was 7%, down modestly to what we saw in the fourth quarter. We have begun to see and are confident that rate growth will continue to improve as we progress through the first quarter and reach our seasonally stronger occupancy months. Relative to seasonal expectations, recent performance reflects both continued strength in leisure and a meaningful recovery in business demand. October, November and December weekend occupancies were 85%, 77% and 64%, respectively. As we entered the fourth quarter, October weekday occupancy was 75%, an improvement over September and down only 5% to October 2019. Although typical seasonality impacted weekday occupancy in November and December, December weekday occupancy was up 4% to December 2019. Weekday ADR for the quarter was $142, up nearly 4% to 2019 rate levels. As we look at demand segments and business transient trends, travel patterns continue to normalize. 61% of our portfolio produced RevPAR above pre-pandemic levels during the quarter with improvement in demand impacting nearly every market. 75 of our hotels had RevPAR improvement of 10% or more relative to the same period in 2019. Top performers included a mix of urban and suburban locations such as Tampa, Phoenix, Anchorage, Syracuse, Huntsville, San Diego, Savannah and Fort Worth. While results improved across the portfolio, we continue to see slower recovery in a number of markets, including our assets in New York, San Jose and Denver. These high quality hotels are well located within their respective markets, and we expect their performance to improve over time, providing additional upside for our portfolio. In terms of room night channel mix, brand.com bookings remained stable at 39% during the quarter. OTA bookings moved from 13% in the third quarter to 12% in the fourth. Property direct bookings increased to 27%, a testament to the continued efforts of our property and management company sales support teams. Lastly, GDS bookings continued to represent 16% for the quarter. And preliminary revenue data shows improvement early in the first quarter, indicating a continuation of the positive business travel trends. Looking at fourth quarter same-store segmentation, bar continued to be elevated to 2019 levels at 34%. Other discounts increased slightly to 29% in the quarter. Group was in line with the third quarter at 14%, still meaningfully higher than the fourth quarter of 2019, which illustrates the resiliency of small group demand. The negotiated segment remains between 17% and 18%, though the occupancy mix relative to 2019 improved from the third quarter, a positive indicator for business travel demand. And after three years without meaningful changes in corporate negotiated pricing, our hotels have just gone through successful 2023 rate negotiations with corporate and local business accounts. And we are optimistic that not only will production continue to improve, but that we’ll also see an improvement in negotiated rates. Turning to expenses, total payroll per occupied room for our same-store hotels was just under $39 for the quarter, slightly higher than the third quarter and up 12% to the fourth quarter of 2019. With occupancy seasonally lower for the quarter, the increase in a per occupied room cost wasn’t unexpected. A tight labor market continued to create operational challenges and fourth quarter results were impacted by higher wages for full and part time employees, training costs and higher utilization of contract labor. While we anticipate wages will remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, we believe a portion of the overall increase in labor costs is temporary and that year-over-year growth rates will come down as in-house staffing stabilizes, and we’re able to reduce recruiting and on-boarding costs and the reliance on contract labor. As we’ve always done, we will continue to balance productivity initiatives with our efforts to uphold a positive work environment conducive to attracting and retaining top talent. These efforts better position us to support the high levels of service and cleanliness necessary to sustain rate growth and maximize the long-term profitability of our assets. Our asset management and onsite teams were able to keep increases in same-store rooms expenses excluding payroll on a per occupied room basis to 3% relative to 2019, despite significant inflationary pressure. Strong rate growth and effective cost controls despite the challenging labor and inflationary environment enabled us to achieve fourth quarter comparable adjusted hotel EBITDA of approximately $102 million and comparable adjusted hotel EBITDA margin of approximately 34%, down only 10 basis points to the fourth quarter of 2019. Actual adjusted hotel EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter was also 34%, but up 70 basis points to 2019, highlighting the positive impact of our transactional activity since the onset of the pandemic. As we have stated on past calls, we believe that long-term margin expansion for the industry and for our portfolio will be largely conditioned on our ability to grow rate. While we expect a portion of our recent expense growth to be temporary, driven by elevated employee recruiting and on-boarding costs and short-term increases in our use of contract labor, we anticipate continued near-term pressure on wages and other operating expenses. Approximately 85% of our hotels are operated under a proprietary management agreement structure which utilizes, among other things, a variable rate management fee with payments based on performance against a balanced scorecard to better align owners and managers around optimizing performance of our hotels within their markets. Over the past three years, because of the meaningful disruption experienced by your industry, we have fixed payments under these contracts at 3%, the midpoint of the variable range. Beginning in 2023, we have reintroduced the variable fee structure. Among other things, management fees earned are based on performance against property budget, achievement of target market share and guest satisfaction scores. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDAre was $90 million, up 22% to the same period in 2021 and up 4% to 2019. MFFO for the quarter was approximately $75 million, up 27% compared to the fourth quarter 2021 and 6% compared to the fourth quarter 2019. Looking at our balance sheet, as of December 31, 2022, we had $1.4 billion in total outstanding debt, approximately 3.3 times our trailing 12-month EBITDAre with a weighted average interest rate of 3.9%. Total outstanding debt excluding unamortized debt issuance costs and fair value adjustments is comprised of approximately $329 million in property level debt secured by 19 hotels and approximately $1 billion outstanding on our unsecured credit facilities. Our weighted average debt maturities are almost five years. At the end of the quarter, we had cash on hand of approximately $4 million, availability under our revolving credit facility of approximately $650 million and term loan availability of $50 million. 84% of total debt outstanding was fixed or hedged. Subsequent to year-end, we repaid in full three secured mortgage loans for a total of approximately $24 million, increasing the number of unencumbered hotels in our portfolio to 204. Valuable swap agreements and most importantly, low overall leverage levels, mitigate the impact of the current interest rate environment. As Justin highlighted, in July, we amended and restated our existing $850 million credit facility, increasing the borrowing capacity to approximately $1.2 billion, extending maturity dates and achieving improved pricing across the facility. These updates provided for additional capacity of $150 million under the term loans and $225 million under the revolving credit facility. The agreement includes an accordion feature in which the amount of the total credit facility may be increased from approximately $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion. Through the refinance of our primary credit facility in July, the additional seven-year senior notes facility closed in June and the repayment of additional secured mortgages, we further strengthened our balance sheet. Also in December, we published our inaugural corporate responsibility report, which details our ESG performance, strategies and initiatives. We have always worked to uphold high environmental, social and governance standards, and we believe these key areas of focus are an integral part of driving long-term value for our shareholders. We will continue to enhance and expand our ESG related disclosures, as our progress deepens and industry wide standards evolve. Turning to our outlook for 2023 provided in yesterday’s press release. Given limited visibility into future performance, due to short-term booking windows and meaningful macroeconomic uncertainty, our outlook reflects a broader range of comparable hotels RevPAR change and other key metrics for 2023. Although forward booking data for our portfolio does not currently provide evidence of a slowdown, our outlook anticipates that the lodging industry recovery will be impacted by macroeconomic headwinds in the latter portion of the year. For the full year, we expect net income to be between $165 million and $209 million, comparable hotels RevPAR change to be between 3% and 7%, comparable hotels adjusted hotel EBITDA margin to be between 35.3% and 36.9% and adjusted EBITDAre to be between $420 million and $457 million. While our asset management and hotel teams are working diligently to mitigate cost pressures, margins are anticipated to be impacted relative to 2022 by increased wages and inflationary pressures on utilities, insurance and other operating costs. This outlook is based on our current view and does not take into account any unanticipated developments in our business or changes in the operating environment, nor does it take into account any unannounced hotel acquisitions or dispositions. Based on current trends, results for the first quarter 2023 are expected to benefit significantly from the easier comparison to the first quarter 2022, when the Omicron variant negatively impacted lodging demand. The high end of the full year range reflects relatively steady macroeconomic conditions throughout 2023 with RevPAR growth slowing, but continued strength in leisure demand and improvement in business transient. The low end of the range reflects a softening and lodging demand beginning in the second quarter with comparable hotels RevPAR change roughly flat compared to 2022 in the second half of the year. Over the last three years, we have demonstrated the resiliency of our differentiated strategy. And as we move into 2023, we believe we remain well positioned for any macroeconomic environment. Our balance sheet is strong, and our recent restructuring provides extended maturities and additional liquidity, which we intend to use opportunistically to pursue accretive opportunities. Our assets are in good condition, with recent dispositions and capital investments, ensuring that we maintain a competitive advantage over other products in our market. Overall, the supply picture continues to be favorable and should help to bolster the performance of our existing portfolio through the coming year. And our team has used our recent experience to enhance our internal systems and processes in ways that will enable us to further maximize the performance of our hotels. And that concludes our prepared remarks. Justin and I will now be happy to answer any questions that you may have for us.