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Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. (APLE)

Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 8, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Apple Hospitality REIT's Third Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host Ms. Kelly Clarke, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Kelly Clarke

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Apple Hospitality REIT’s third quarter 2016 earnings call on this, the 8th day of November 2016. Today’s call will be based on the third quarter 2016 earnings release, which was distributed yesterday afternoon. I would like to remind everyone that today’s call will contain forward-looking statements as defined by federal securities laws, including statements regarding future operating results. These statements involve known and unknown risks and other factors, which may cause actual results, performance or achievements of Apple Hospitality to be materially different from future results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Participants should carefully review our financial statements and the notes thereto, as well as the risk factors described in Apple Hospitality’s 2015 Form 10-K, third quarter 2016 Form 10-Q, and other filings with the SEC. Any forward-looking statement that Apple Hospitality makes speaks only as of today, and the Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. In addition, certain non-GAAP measures of performance such as EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, FFO, and modified FFO, will be discussed during this call. We encourage participants to review reconciliations of those measures to GAAP measures as included in yesterday’s earnings release and other filings with the SEC. For a copy of the earnings release or additional information about the Company, please visit applehospitalityreit.com This morning, Justin Knight, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Krissy Gathright, our Chief Operating Officer; and Bryan Peery, our Chief Financial Officer, will provide an overview of our results for the third quarter of 2016 and an outlook for the sector and for the Company. Following the overview, we will have a question-and-answer session. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Justin.

Justin Knight

Analyst

Thank you, Kelly. Good morning and welcome to Apple Hospitality REIT’s third quarter 2016 earnings call. And thank you for joining us on Election Day. There has undoubtedly been some turbulence around this year's elections and a host of other national and global events which have presented a backdrop of heightened uncertainty for the broad economy and financial markets. Despite these challenges, the economic indicators although mix that times continue to signal slow but steady growth as has been the case for a much of this extended economic recovery. That said, we continue to see strength and opportunity in our overall domestic travel and remain confident in the fundamentals of our hospitality platform. Our broad geographic diversification and choice of markets are focused on the upscale select service and extended-stay sector. Our exclusive investment in Hilton and Marriott branded hotels our ongoing reinvestment in the quality of our hotels and our strong flexible balance sheet, all contributed to a strategy design to reduce volatility and generate strong stable investor returns overtime. Turning to the quarter, July RevPAR for the combined portfolio was flat to last year; however, growth in the August and September allowed us to achieve an increase in comparable hotels RevPAR of 1.5%, and by year-to-date comparable hotels RevPAR growth through September to 3%. While we have not adjusted our 2016 RevPAR guidance, we feel most comfortable with our ability to achieve annual growth at or slightly below the midpoint of that range as a re-acceleration in business transient postelection and prior to the end of the year. Our portfolio for hotels achieved growth and adjusted EBITDA of 14.9% during the third quarter of this year, and 12.5% year-to-date through September, consistent with our expectations and in line with our previously provided guidance. We are pleased to have…

Krissy Gathright

Analyst

Thank you. As Justin mentioned, comparable hotel RevPAR for the third quarter increased 1.5% with rate growth of 1.7% and a slight decline in the occupancy of 0.2%, while maintaining a high level of 80%. As we discussed in our prior earnings call, we started off the quarter with flat RevPAR growth due to a shift in the 4th of July holiday. Comparable hotel RevPAR growth improved to 2.3% in August and similarly by 2.2% in the September. We had anticipated September to have the strongest RevPAR growth, but we did experience some negative impact from tropical storm Hermine in our Southeast hotels of Labor Day weekend, combined with transient bookings actualizing a little lower than expected. Our geographically diversified select service concentrated portfolio do not materially benefit from the shift in the Jewish holidays in September, just as we did not experienced a material negative impact in October. We finished the month with comparable hotel RevPAR growth around 2% consistent with the growth in the past few months. There continues to be wide variability in the performance of our market with 33% of our hotels growing RevPAR 5% or more compared to 37% year-to-date. 19% of our hotels had RevPAR declines greater than 5% compared to 13% year-to-date. Our more significant underperforming markets were Houston, Chicago and Austin. In Austin, we faced the tough year-over-year comparison with 15% RevPAR growth in the third quarter of 2015 boosted by flood-related FEMA recovery business. Additional headwinds based in Austin included new supply and softer corporate demand. Markets with the stronger performance included Los Angeles, Washington D.C. and Phoenix. For a little more color on segmentation in the quarter, transient room nights decreased approximately 30 basis points and group room nights increased approximately 50 basis points. Transient and group rate grew approximately…

Bryan Peery

Analyst

Thanks, Krissy, and good morning. As both Justin and Krissy highlighted although growth was not as strong as the last few quarters, we believe we continue to enhance our strategy and highlight its benefits. While increasing the geographic diversity and product focus of our portfolio of hotels, with the acquisition 57 hotels this year, we have been able to increase adjusted EBITDA to 104 million during the third quarter and 283 million year-to-date. Increases of almost 15% and over 12% respectively compared to 2015. Modified FFO per share grew to $0.49 for the quarter and $1.41 year-to-date, representing growth of 6.5% for the third quarter and almost 14% year-to-date. Although as Krissy discussed, adjusted hotel EBITDA margins were challenged during the quarter, adjusted EBITDA margins were flat and have increased 60 basis points for the year due primarily to the structure of our incentive plan. The Company senior management annual performance incentive plan is based 50% on shareholder return metrics and 50% on operational metrics. Through the September, these metrics are likely not to be met or will be at the low end of the payout range. The impact related to the incentive plan for the quarter was a reduction in general and administrative expense of approximately $3 million as compared to the third quarter of 2015. With the completion of the merger with Apple Ten on September 1st, the Company issued 49 million common shares and $94 million to the former Apple Ten shareholders and assumed approximately 257 million of debt, maintaining our leverage ratio at three times trailing adjusted EBITDA. Subsequent to the end of the third quarter, the Company reached an agreement in principal to settle the previously disclosed litigation related to the Apple Ten merger which is still subject to court approval. Included in transaction cost…

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instruction] Our first question comes from the line of Ryan Meliker with Canaccord Genuity. Please state your question.

Ryan Meliker

Analyst

Hi. Good morning guys. I just had a couple of here. First of all, I was wondering if you could give us a little bit of color on the RevPAR guidance and I guess RevPAR results in terms of any breakdown between the legacy portfolio and the Apple REIT Ten portfolio. I know that when you guys close on the acquisition you had lower guidance to plus 2% to 4% on RevPAR. I’m wondering, if that’s any deceleration in terms of your outlook for the legacy portfolio and across the business, will that just a market mix bringing the Apple REIT Ten portfolio in and overall across your business you feel the same?

Justin Knight

Analyst

Good morning, Ryan. I'll start and then Krissy can join in. We are obviously seeing significant impact in finite number market and because of the concentration within Apple Ten, there has been negative impact on the overall portfolio for RevPAR growth standpoint, specifically because of the concentration, relative concentration in Chicago and Huston primarily. As we look at the operating environment pulling those two markets out of both portfolios, the portfolios actually produced relatively close numbers in terms of growth. And what we are seeing more broadly I think it is very similar to what you've seen in the start numbers that were generally reported. That's being said, Krissy mentioned in her earlier remarks, we saw approximately 2% growth for the entire portfolio in October. We didn’t experience in the same way the holiday shift, the Jewish holiday shift that somewhat appears to have more heavily concentrated in the gateway markets experience, and we have seen dumping of the stabilization. But we anticipate those markets will continue to be a drag on our portfolio through the remainder of the year. And because we had ownership in both companies in those markets, the drag occurred in both but is more pronounced because a smaller portfolio those markets make up a bigger percentage of the Apple Ten portfolio.

Krissy Gathright

Analyst

And, Ryan, just to give you a little more color on that, if you exclude Chicago and Huston which are two of the markets that we picked up additional on properties; and with the Apple Ten transaction, we would have had 80 basis points higher RevPAR during the quarter just excluding those two markets. And then you had in Austin and that's another 30 basis points. So, those three markets equate to 110 basis points less in RevPAR. And Ryan just business and cash adjustments, we've seen pretty consistent just a softer business traveler, and so we are not seeing that decelerate any further, it's just a softer business traveler across more markets than we had previously.

Ryan Meliker

Analyst

That’s helpful. So it sounds like your outlook is somewhat slowed in general across the industry, but it also sounds like, if I look at the 2% to 4% full year guidance that you guys issued. The legacy portfolio is probably towards the higher end of that range and the Ten portfolio is probably towards the lower end. Is that safe assessment?

Justin Knight

Analyst

Yes, correct.

Ryan Meliker

Analyst

Just want to make sure I understood that. And then the second thing I was hoping, you could give us some color on was -- you announced the two full service non-core asset sales in Chesapeake and Dallas. Can you give us any color on either; A, cap rate through EBITDA multiples; and B, potentially how the sale process progress, but there is wide demand et cetera for those assets?

Justin Knight

Analyst

All right, I am going to give you less on the first and more on the second. As you know, we typically don’t report cap rates and multiple on individual transactions. I can tell you both cases, we were great comfortable with the sales price. There are two very different assets and two very different markets and so disposition for us meant different things in each case. Chesapeake is the market that’s been negatively impacted by lower government business and increase in supply. That market has historically been heavily dependent on navy and other military business, which has been less strong over the past couple of years. And that hotel is also in need of renovation, so it was coming up on a full renovation. Those were the factors that played into our disposition on that particular asset. With Dallas asset, is very different scenario, an asset where we acquired the hotel very well, and did significant renovations and changed our management and significantly enhanced the value. And we felt in that particular market that we were in a position to capitalize on our efforts and to lock in significant profit on the deal. The two together balanced out in a way that provides us a strong profit to our original investment across the two combined. And exiting those assets is consistent with the strategy which we’ve articulated in the past call to dispose overtime when appropriate of our full service hotels. And to double down on our core strategy which is to invest in our upscale select service and extended-stay hotels where we feel we can operate most efficiently and effectively.

Ryan Meliker

Analyst

All right. Thank you. That’s helpful. And then one last thing just real quickly from the color that you mentioned about Chicago, Austin and Houston, that’s helpful, obviously. As we lookout to 2017, it seems like supply is going to continue to be a challenge for Austin, and Houston has challenges that don’t seem to be dissipating anytime soon. How to Chicago look for you guys, I know the convention calendar looks better, but supply is also picking up. Does the convention calendar have that big of an impact on your portfolio in Chicago? Do you think Chicago is going to be a tailwind next year or still going to be a challenge?

Krissy Gathright

Analyst

Because most of our hotels aren’t located in the central business district has lesser than impact on our suburban hotels. The convention calendar we look at more conventions that actually compressed, and so we look at compression room night. And if you look at compression room night, you’re actually down slightly. There is Hotels of O'Hare in particular was somewhat impacted this year by the ramp of the Rosemont Hotel, the new development there. We do feel there’ll be less of an impact going forward on O'Hare and then Rosemont will continue to ramp. So, we do see net, net growth a little bit of growth in the O'Hare market. The other Mettawa markets Warrenville, Mettawa has been impacted by business that is going to neighboring office park that a large clients have moved out. We are seeing some signs that there are some new smaller companies moving in. And so we expect to be able to pick up from business there as well as we have renovation of one of the hotels and then we'll start renovation of another one. So following renovation, we feel god about those. Warrenville, we actually did have a large client Kanegra moved to Downtown. So, we have to wait and see on that one. We’re going to -- there is going to be some additional supply and we need to pick up some additional business. So, it’s a -- overall, it’s not going to be as -- I wouldn’t it's a tailwind, but I wouldn’t say either as much of the headwind as we experienced this year in that way.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of David Loeb with Robert. W. Baird. Please state your question.

David Loeb

Analyst · Robert. W. Baird. Please state your question.

Just a follow up a little bit on the RevPAR question. What impact you think the direct booking initiatives from Marriott and Hilton are having on your RevPAR? And are you seeing any sort of offset in OTA commissions and how much of that decrease you think is being offset in terms of the impacts to the bottom line?

Krissy Gathright

Analyst · Robert. W. Baird. Please state your question.

So, I'll take that one. I would say with looking at those Marriott and Hilton, I would say Hilton was probably a little bit more negatively impacted in the short-term in the quarter. And you can see that across the performance of some of the select service hotels as well. And that’s primarily because they were the first group to come out, the first brand to come out. And one of the OTAs decided to dim and de-rank their hotels, which in the summer months cost a little bit of less business for that particular brand. What we have seen there was that, I believe the OTAs have realized very smartly that those brands convertor very well and they since stop that dimming and in de-ranking. And they are also looking for more -- for better ways to partner and understanding the things are changing, and so they are looking for other ways that they can help via customer acquisition tool for the brands without necessarily your increasing commission. In terms of our overall commissions, we did see an increase in commissions and about 20 basis points increase in travel agent commissions. What we have seen is our OTAs room nights while they're up, they are up less than last year. Their OTA room nights in the quarter were up 17%. Our brand.com business was also up at strong 9%, which we believe was driven by the initiative of marketing around the direct looking strategy. And if you look at our channel shift on that our brand.com business increased from 32% to 34.1%, which is an increase of 210 basis points where OTA next increased from 8% to 9.2%, an increase of 120 basis points. So, if you actually look at the differential there, it's about 90 basis points increase our channel shifts from OTA mix to brand.com. And we definitely see that's as more of a long-term strategic play. The OTA commissions, the cost for bookings is actually going down as the brand has done a better job of working with the ownership community and bringing down as commissions cost. But the overall commissions are still going up because the volume is up.

David Loeb

Analyst · Robert. W. Baird. Please state your question.

So, Krissy, just a follow-up on that, with the growth in those two channels you talked about that shifting some of that growth between one in the other. What channels are shrinking?

Krissy Gathright

Analyst · Robert. W. Baird. Please state your question.

Voice continues to strengthen a little bit and property direct shrinking a little bit.

David Loeb

Analyst · Robert. W. Baird. Please state your question.

Okay and as we go through this transition were brand.com is really being pushed, do you think they will eventually be a tradeoff that you will see lower OTA commissions, not just because the rates are lower, but because there is just less of that? And will that essentially offset some of this RevPAR decrease or ADR decrease?

Krissy Gathright

Analyst · Robert. W. Baird. Please state your question.

I do. I think that -- and I think that as you go move into next year as well, the initial RevPAR decrease is from the initial discount that you are offering upfront. But as we move forward as part of the longer term strategy, I think the brands will continue to look at the discounts and the discount rates. But also they’ll emphasize and put greater emphasis on the other value that it’s provided by booking direct, not just on price, but the other amenities and things that you can only get from booking direct like straight to room, picking your overall room key, that type of things. So, overtime, again, we’re very supportive of the strategy. And we feel that there will be less emphasis on the actual discount. And we already are starting to see and working towards where we can, adjusting revenue management strategies to increase where we’re able, and increase the rates of the discounted less anyway.

David Loeb

Analyst · Robert. W. Baird. Please state your question.

Got it. Okay. One more sort of related topic, its sounds like the brands are doing much better wrestling with this whole hotel direct bookings phenomena, but how about cancel and rebook. You guys must see a bit of that maybe not as much as some of the urban hotels. But, do you think the brands are taking that seriously? I’m trying to figure out how to stop that or lessen that?

Krissy Gathright

Analyst · Robert. W. Baird. Please state your question.

Here, we feel we do see you’re correct, David. We do see less of that in our particular hotels primarily because we are suburban and a lot of our extended-stay hotels about third of our hotels are also extended stay, they see less of cancel rebook. But the brands are taking it seriously, what we would like to see, one of the options that we would support are may be adding tiers of pricing, a growing percentage of guests are actually booking within seven days. So, if we could transfer some of the 24-hour cancelation guest into another price tier, where you maybe offer a little bit of discount, but not as much of the discounted, but not fully nonrefundable advance purchase. That would spread out our cancellation window and essentially have a built in -- it allows us to kind of have a built in premium versus just charging a fee. So, we are looking for encouraging our brands to look at the different strategies to be more like similar to what you see in terms of the airlines, so you have to pay premium pricing for the more flexibility.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instruction] Our final question comes from Ryan Meliker with Canaccord Genuity. Please proceed with your question.

Ryan Meliker

Analyst

Hi, guys long time to talk. Just one quick one follow-up I had was related to operating cost obviously you guys talked a little bit about the quarter with margins down a 140 basis points. As we think about margins and operating cost going forward, what type of RevPAR growth do you feel like you need to maintain flat margins as we look out to 2017?

Krissy Gathright

Analyst

Somewhere north of 2% or closer to 3% or above, we are unless -- as I mentioned in my comments, Ryan, we are facing some challenges. You have the normal increase in wages that’s going through with a minimum wage increases and leaving wage increases although they have less than tact on our portfolio because there is a primarily year towards the Gateway City. In addition, you have just additional supply which is putting pressure at Downtown, San Diego, Austin and Nashville. And some of these markets that are just natural low unemployment are driving up this wage rate. So, we are clearly going to stay on top of that we’ve talked about the technology opportunity. We’re working with our managers to reduce contract labors as much as possible. There are brand programs that where you can and basically offer a small amount of frequency points in lieu of daily housekeeping. I mentioned earlier we have extended-stay hotels and then I think about extended-stay hotels is that you have lower turnover cost, you have longer term stay for that lower turnover cost. There is less exposure to those in wages. The labor is going to be the biggest challenge. Utilities have been stable for year-to-date so we will have to need to watch that. Again, I would reiterate somewhere north of mid 2% or so.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude our question and answer session. At this time, I'll turn it back to Mr. Knight for closing remarks.

Justin Knight

Analyst

Thank you for joining us this morning. Overall, we're pleased with the performance of our hotels during the first nine months of 2016. Our experience in lodging industry expands multiple economic cycles and we are confident, we are well positioned for the remainder of the year, despite our expectations from more moderate growth on a go forward basis. We hope that as you travel, you will take the opportunity to stay with us. And if you haven’t already, we would encourage you to vote. Have a great afternoon. And we will look forward to talking you soon.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.