Adam Norwitt
Analyst · Evercore. Your line is open
Well, Craig, thank you very much, and I'd like to extend my welcome to everybody here today at the time of our third quarter earnings release. And first and foremost, I hope that all of you on the call here today, together with your family, your friends and your colleagues are staying safe and healthy throughout the pandemic. As Craig mentioned, I'm going to highlight some of our achievements in the third quarter, and most importantly, discuss the trends and progress across our served markets. I'll then make a few comments on our outlook for the fourth quarter as well as for the full year of 2020. With respect to the third quarter, and amidst what has been clearly an unprecedented and volatile year, I'm truly proud that we at Amphenol achieved record sales and adjusted earnings per share in the third quarter, realizing level significantly above our guidance that we issued just 90 days ago. Sales reached $2,323 million, an increase from prior year of 11% in U.S. dollars, 10% in local currencies, and 9% organically. The strong growth was driven by increases in mobile devices, IT datacom, industrial, military, broadband and the automotive markets, and was offset partially by declines in the commercial air and mobile networks markets. We are particularly proud to have achieved a very robust 17% sequential growth from the second quarter which was significantly higher than our original expectations. As Craig mentioned, the company booked $2,275 million in orders and that represented a book-to-bill of 0.98 to 1. Now despite experiencing some continued operational challenges related to the pandemic, we generated excellent operating margins of 20.5% in the third quarter, and this was a full 250 basis point increase from our second quarter levels. Just want to say that the company's financial position remains extremely strong, with our operating cash flow of $398 million, and that was particularly notable given the stronger than expected sequential growth from the second quarter. And we continue to leverage that financial strength to return capital to our shareholders, both through our repurchase last quarter of 1.9 million shares of the company's stock, as well as the Board of Directors' approval of a 16% increase in our quarterly dividend that we are announcing today. I'm extremely proud of the Amphenol team. No question in my mind that the record results this quarter clearly demonstrate the true value of the agility, the discipline, and the drive of our entrepreneurial organization. Now turning to the trends across our served markets, I would just comment that as we've seen this year so far, Amphenol's balanced and broad end market diversification is a uniquely valuable asset, especially in times of heightened economic uncertainty. As many of our markets began to recover in the third quarter, we were able to quickly capitalize on the growth opportunities in those markets, while still retaining our broad exposure to new opportunities and new technology developments across all areas of the electronics industry. The military market represented 12% of our sales in the third quarter. Sales in this market increased by 6% from prior year, driven in particular by growth in military vehicles, naval, space, communications and airframe applications. Sequentially, our sales increased by a strong 30% as we recovered from the impact of production restrictions that hit certain of our facilities related to government measures implemented in the second quarter to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Looking into the fourth quarter, we expect sales to increase slightly from these levels, and for the full year of 2020, we expect a low single-digit increase in sales from prior year. This full year performance reflects our leading market position and strong execution, offset in part by the impact of the pandemic related production restrictions we experienced in the first half of 2020. I'm very proud of our team working in the military market around the world. They have maintained a singular focus on ensuring that our defense industry customers have uninterrupted access to our leading high technology interconnect products which are - which are critical to our customers' equipment. We are encouraged both by the accelerating adoption of electronics in these systems together with the overall favorable defense spending environment. The investments that we've made over the last several years in both new technologies and the capabilities to produce them at volume have positioned us very strongly to be able to capitalize on these trends for many years to come. The commercial aerospace market represented 2% of our sales in the third quarter. Sales were down by 40%, a very significant level, as the commercial aircraft market once again experienced unprecedented declines in demand for new aircraft due to the pandemic related disruptions to the global travel industry. Sequentially, our sales were a bit better than expected, rising 4% from the second quarter. As we look ahead though, we expect the commercial air market to continue to be negatively impacted by the significant reduction in demand for air travel, which is occurring around the world. Accordingly, we expect an approximately 20% sequential reduction in our sales to this market in the fourth quarter. And for the full year 2020, we expect a roughly 35% decline from prior year due to the unprecedented demand disruptions that our customers are experiencing. No question that these are difficult times for the entire travel industry and that that's having a serious impact on the market for commercial airplanes in the near term. Nevertheless, our team remains committed to leveraging the company's strong technology position across a wide array of aircraft platforms and next generation systems integrated into those airplanes, and we remain well positioned when this market eventually does return to growth. The industrial market represented 22% of our sales in the quarter, and our sales to the industrial market exceeded our expectations, increasing by 21% in U.S. dollars and 18% organically, a very strong performance. This robust growth was driven especially by the instrumentation, medical, industrial battery, heavy equipment, alternative energy and rail mass transit segments, really a broad base of growth that we saw in the industrial market. Although we had expected sales to be modestly lower than the second quarter, we actually realized 11% sequential growth during the third quarter, a very strong performance. Looking into the fourth quarter, we expect a modest decline from these third quarter sales levels. Nevertheless, for the full year 2020, we expect a low double-digit increase in sales from 2019 levels, an outstanding performance given the overall market environment. I'm truly proud of our team working in the industrial market, whether enabling the growth in volumes of a wide array of medical equipment, managing through significant increases in demand for semiconductor capital equipment or executing on unprecedented demand for next generation batteries, our global organization has reacted quickly to ensure that our customers around the world are fully supported regardless of the many operational challenges that have arisen throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. As we look towards the long-term, I'm confident that our performance through this crisis has positioned us very strongly for the future. And importantly, we continue to drive our leading development of next generation interconnect sensor and antenna products in support of our customers in the industrial market, who in turn are accelerating their adoption of next generation technologies. The automotive market represented 17% of our sales in the third quarter. After a truly challenging second quarter during which the global automotive industry was deeply impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, we were very pleased to have seen a very strong recovery here in the third quarter, with results much better than we had originally anticipated coming into the quarter. Our team's outstanding execution led to an increase in sales from prior year by 4% in U.S. dollars and 1% organically, well ahead of our expectations. Sequentially, our sales increased by truly significant 78% from the second quarter, as our team was able to execute quickly on a recovery in demand from automotive customers in all regions. Looking now into the fourth quarter, we expect automotive sales to further increase in the mid-single digits from these levels. For the full year 2020, we expect a low double-digit reduction in sales, which does reflect the severe and sudden pandemic-related downturn and demand from automotive OEMs that we saw in the first half. I'm extremely proud of our team working in the automotive market, who has clearly demonstrated, both agility and resiliency in realizing the strong sequential growth levels. In fact, our performance through this crisis makes me even more confident in our long-term prospects in the automotive market. We've continued to expand our range of interconnect sensor and antenna products, both organically and through acquisitions, all with the goal of enabling a wide array of onboard electronics across a diversified range of vehicles made by auto manufacturers around the world. This consistent strategy will no doubt continue to benefit us as the automotive market recovers. The mobile devices market represented 16% of our sales in the quarter and our sales to mobile device customers increased by a stronger than expected 25% from prior year, driven in particular by increased sales of products incorporated into laptops, tablets and wearables, and this was offset in part by slightly lower year-over-year sales to smartphones. Sequentially, our sales increased by a much stronger than expected 37%, and this was driven by higher sales across all the products that we serve. Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect a slight increase from these already strong third quarter levels, and for the full year, we anticipate sales to grow in the low double digits from 2019. And I would just note that this is well above our original expectations as we came into the year before we were hit with the pandemic. While mobile devices will always remain one of our most volatile markets, our outstanding agile team is poised as always to capture any opportunities for incremental sales that may arise here in the fourth quarter or beyond. Our leading array of antennas, interconnect products and mechanisms continue to enable a broad range of next generation mobile devices, and this positions us well for the long-term. The mobile networks market represented 6% of our sales in the quarter, and sales decreased as we had expected from prior year by 19% in U.S. dollars and 21% organically, driven by lower sales to wireless operators, as well as some continued impact from the U.S. government restrictions on certain Chinese entities that we have previously discussed. On a sequential basis, our sales reduced by 9% on overall lower spending by both operators and OEMs. Looking into the fourth quarter, we expect a further seasonal sales reduction of approximately 25% related to both OEMs and service providers. And for the full year, we expect a high teens reduction in sales, which reflects the impact of the U.S. government restrictions, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic. Regardless of the near-term challenges in the mobile networks market, we're confident in the company's long-term position in this important and exciting industry. Our team continues to work aggressively to expand our opportunity with next generation equipment and networks. As customers ramp up investment of these advanced systems, we look forward to benefiting from the increased potential that comes from our unique position with both equipment manufacturers and mobile service providers around the world. The information technology and data communications market represented 21% of our sales in the quarter. Sales in the third quarter once again much better than we had anticipated, rising from prior year by a very strong 24% in U.S. dollars and 21% organically. And this growth was really driven from increased demand for data traffic that continue to prompt both our OEM and service provider customers to increase their demand across virtually all segments of the IT datacom market. Sequentially, sales were down by a less than expected 10% from our extremely strong second quarter. As we look towards the fourth quarter, we expect a mid-teens sequential decline from these very strong third quarter levels, and for the full year 2020, we expect sales to increase in the low teens, reflecting the significant upside in demand we experienced in both the second and third quarters, offset in part by the pandemic-related disruptions we saw in the first quarter. Our team working in support of the IT datacom market has clearly distinguished themselves this year, reacting quickly to capitalize on unprecedented demand for our industry-leading high-speed and power products. At the same time, we've not slowed down our efforts to further develop our broad range of industry-leading interconnect products in support of data communications networks around the world. Indeed, we remain very encouraged by the company's strong technology position in the global IT datacom market. Our customers continue to drive their equipment to ever higher levels of performance in order to manage the dramatic increases in demand for bandwidth and processor power. In turn, our team remains singularly focused on enabling this continuing revolution in IT datacom. The broadband market represented 4% of our sales in the quarter. Sales increased by 5% from prior year, driven by stronger demand for home installation related equipment from broadband operators. On a sequential basis, sales increased by a stronger than expected 13%, as our customers continue to upgrade their networks in support of the increased demand for high-speed data. We expect sales in the fourth quarter to moderate from these levels on typical end of the year seasonality. And for the full year 2020, we expect sales to be roughly flat with prior year, and this reflects the pandemic-related disruptions we experienced in certain geographies, offset by increased investments by our customers in support of higher bandwidth demand. Now turning to our outlook for the future. While our performance in the third quarter was very strong, there still remain significant uncertainties in the global market related to the COVID-19 pandemic, which does appear to be worsening in some regions of the world. Assuming no new material disruptions from the pandemic, as well as constant exchange rates, for the fourth quarter, we expect sales in the range of $2,160 million to $2,200 million, and adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $0.98 to $1. This represents both sales and adjusted diluted EPS growth versus prior year of flat to up 2%. Our fourth quarter guidance also represents an expectation for full year sales of $8,333 million to $8,373 million, and full year adjusted diluted EPS of $3.59 to $3.61. This outlook represents sales growth versus prior year of 1% to 2%, and an adjusted diluted EPS decline of 3% to 4%. The expected decline in our earnings relates directly to the significant cost and disruptions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic that the company faced particularly during the first half of 2020. Now let me just say that I'm extremely pleased by Amphenol's performance in the third quarter, especially our team's achievement of these new quarterly records in both sales and earnings. Most importantly, I remain very confident in the ability of our outstanding management team to adapt to the continued challenges in the marketplace, and to capitalize on the many future opportunities to grow our market position and expand our profitability. I just want to assure you that our entire organization remains committed to fighting hard to secure the company's financial performance, all while dedicating ourselves wholeheartedly to protecting the safety and health of each of our employees around the world. And as a final note, I would just like to take this opportunity here today to thank every one of our Amphenolians around the world for their outstanding efforts here in the third quarter. And with that, operator, we'd be very happy to take any questions.