Adam Norwitt
Analyst · Stifel. Your line is now open
Well, thank you very much, Craig and it’s my pleasure to also welcome all of you to our call here and I hope it’s certainly not too late to wish each of you a Happy New Year. As Craig mentioned, I am going to highlight a little bit our fourth quarter and as well as reflect back on our full year achievements in 2015. I will then spend some time to discuss the trends and our progress in our served markets. And then finally, I will make a few comments on our outlook for the first quarter and the full year and of course we will have time at the end for questions. With respect to the fourth quarter, certainly our results in this quarter were stronger than expected as we exceeded the high end of our guidance in sales and earnings, despite what is clearly a heightened level of market uncertainty. Although we had expected some decline from prior year, our revenues ultimately were flat in U.S. dollars and increased by 3% in local currencies, reaching that level of $1.431 billion. I think Craig mentioned as well that the company booked a record $1.463 billion in orders, which represented a book to bill of 1.02 to 1. We are especially proud that in the quarter, we equaled our highest levels of profitability in the company’s history as we sustained our industry leading operating margins at the same 20.2% that we achieved in the third quarter. In fact, over the last five quarters, three of those quarters we have achieved that 20.2%. Operating cash flow was another real highlight in the quarter as we reached a new record of $322 million of operating cash flow and actually free cash flow of $281 million. These are really just great confirmations of the company’s discipline and financial strength. I am extremely proud of this Amphenol organization. Our results this quarter confirm once again the true value of our entrepreneurial culture as we once again exercised both the agility and the discipline necessary to perform well despite what are clearly significant and mounting uncertainties across the worldwide economy. Craig mentioned that we closed the FCI acquisition in – just here recently in January. And we are extremely excited to have completed that acquisition on January 8, after we finally received the last antitrust approval, which was from China at the end of December. FCI is the largest acquisition in the history of the company. It represents a significant expansion of our interconnect product offerings for customers in the IT datacom, industrial, mobile infrastructure, automotive and mobile devices markets. But most importantly, we have added a truly outstanding group of talented individuals to our organization. In fact just last week, we hosted a large group of the FCI management team here at our headquarters in Wallingford and what I can only confirm for you is that they are all truly excited to be part of the Amphenol organization. Looking into 2016, as Craig discussed we expect approximately $0.12 per share of accretion from the FCI transaction on revenues of approximately $570 million. Long-term, we look forward to capitalizing on the wide range of opportunities that will now be available to Amphenol, given our broader range of technologies and deeper penetration of customers in these many exciting markets that FCI brings us. And as we welcome this excellent new team to Amphenol, all I can say is that we remain very confident that our successful acquisition program will continue to create value for Amphenol into the future. Now with respect to the 2015, there is no question that 2015 was a very strong year for the company, in particular given the many economic and geopolitical disruptions that emerged throughout the year. First, we expanded our position in the overall market, growing our sales by 4% in U.S. dollars and 8% in local currencies, ultimately reaching that new sales record of $5.569 billion. In addition, we expanded our operating margins to the new record of 19.9% for the full year while generating EPS of $2.43, both excluding one-time items. This represented a growth of 8% in EPS from prior year. We also had as you all know a very busy year in our acquisition program as in addition to FCI, we acquired Invotec, DoCharm and ProCom earlier in the year. These acquisitions are going to create great value for the company, in fact already are creating that value as we expand our position across really most of our served markets. And in particular, we have now been joined by a great range of new talented managers thereby strengthening our already impressive management team. In 2015, it’s once again a reflection that our consistent focus on growing with the broadening array of customers across all of our diversified end markets has ultimately resulted in Amphenol strengthening our position across the many segments of the electronics industry. And in addition, our entrepreneurial organization has accelerated the development of innovative interconnect technologies in support of our simple but long-term mission to be the enabler of electronics revolution. These developments have allowed Amphenol to capitalize on exciting new markets and thereby have broadened the opportunity for our future expansion. While 2015 was not always an easy year, as we entered 2016 I can just say that our management team is highly confident that we have now built a new platform of strength from which we can drive even better long-term performance for many years to come. Now turning towards our progress across our various served markets, I just want to comment that our team remains extremely focused on maintaining a balance and diversified market position. And this is really an asset that becomes even more valuable during times of economic uncertainty. And I think we all know that we are in those times. In 2015, not one of our end markets represented more than 19% of our sales and I will just say with the acquisition of FCI, we continue to expect that no market will make up even 20% of our sales as we now see it. Turning to the markets, first the military market represented 10% of our sales in the fourth quarter and also 10% of our sales for the full year of 2015. Sales in the military market were down slightly in U.S. dollars and were flat in local currencies from prior year as growth in military airframe was offset by reductions in communications and rotorcraft. We were in fact pleased in the fourth quarter to see stronger than expected 4% sequential increase from the third quarter, with strength across most types of military equipment. For the full year 2015, our sales were down slightly in U.S. dollars and were up 2% in local currencies in the military market. While the overall market has remained basically stable in 2015, we are pleased to be seeing the early signs of some renewed growth. Our team has done an excellent job of strengthening our overall market position during these most recent more moderate years as we have continued to expand our high technology product offering across many complex new equipment platforms. Looking into 2016, while we expect sales in the first quarter to remain roughly at the levels of the fourth quarter, we now expect to achieve growth in the low single-digits for the full year as we realize the benefits of our expanded content on new military equipment and as certain new programs launch. The Commercial Aerospace market represented 6% of our sales in the fourth quarter and 6% also for the full year. Sales were down by 4% in U.S. dollars and were flat in local currencies compared to prior year as stronger sales on to new airplane platforms were offset by reductions in commercial helicopter and business jet related sales. We were actually very encouraged during the quarter to achieve a strong 12% sequential increase from our third quarter sales levels, which was driven in particular by ramp ups of new large jet programs. For the full year 2015, our sales declined by 7% in U.S. dollars and just slightly in local currency driven by reductions in commercial helicopter and business jets sales. And we believe that that was related in part to the significant declines in the purchases of such equipment by oil and gas companies. Regardless of this more challenging market environment in 2015, we are very pleased with our continued progress across the commercial end market as we have taken excellent advantage of the proliferation of new electronics on next generation jetliners, which we are enabling with our broadened range of high-technology interconnect products. Looking ahead to 2016, we expect sales to remain at or slight above these levels in the first quarter and we expect to return to solid growth for the full year as production volumes of certain new planes ramp up, creating an exciting long-term opportunity for the company. The industrial market represented 17% of our sales both in the quarter and for the full year. Sales in this market grew by actually a strong 7% in U.S. dollars and 10% in local currency and that was driven in particular by growth in the hybrid bus and truck, heavy equipment and alternative energy segments as well as by some contribution from the Goldstar acquisition we made last year. And this was offset in part by significant and continued declines in our sales to customers in the oil and gas segment. Sequentially, our sales grew by a higher than expected 6%, resulting also from strength in those same segments. For the full year of 2015, sales in the industrial market grew by 5% in U.S. dollars and 8% in local currency as the contributions from our acquisition program, together with that same strength in hybrid bus and truck, heavy equipment and alternative energy was in part offset by the significant declines in oil and gas. I can just say that we remain very proud of our diversified industrial businesses and we have continued to make progress selling an ever broader range of interconnect sensor and antenna products into the many growth segments of this market. Now with the addition of FCI, we have significantly strengthened our position across a wide array of embedded computing applications in the industrial market and we believe that this highly complementary offering is going to create an excellent long-term growth platform for the company. For the first quarter, we anticipate sales to increase from the current levels due to the benefit from the FCI acquisition and looking towards the full year of 2016, we now expect sales growth in the high-teens in the industrial market for the full year as we benefit from contributions of FCI together with moderate organic growth from the many segments of the industrial market. The automotive market represented 18% of our sales in the fourth quarter as well as in the full year of 2015. Sales in that market increased a very strong 5% in U.S. dollars and 12% in local currency. And this was driven by stronger sales of our products used in a wide array of new vehicle electronics. Sequentially, our sales were a bit stronger than expected and slightly exceeded our Q3 levels. For the full year 2015, we are very pleased to have achieved another year of excellent growth as our sales grew by 23% in U.S. dollars, 33% in local currency and 12% organically. This is an outstanding year by any industry comparison for our automotive products. Our successful strategy has included driving an expanded range of interconnect and sensor products across a more diversified range of vehicles and onboard electronics around the world, while at the same time identifying complementary high-technology acquisitions. We look forward to continuing to realize the benefits from this approach for many years to come. For the first quarter, we expect sales to increase moderately from current levels. And for the full year 2016, we expect to achieve mid to high single-digit growth as we continue to benefit from our recent acquisitions as well as our expanded range of automotive electronics into which our interconnect and sensor products are designed. The mobile devices market represented 20% of our sales in the quarter and 19% of our sales for the full year 2015. Our performance in this market was actually somewhat stronger than we had expected as sales were essentially flat to prior year and down by 14% sequentially from our very strong third quarter. Once again, our team demonstrated their incredible dynamic agility as they were able to flex their resources quickly in the face of this sequential reduction, all while staying poised to capitalize on any upside opportunities for incremental sales that became available in the market. For the full year of 2015, our sales in the mobile devices market increased a very strong 13% from prior year, driven by growth in next-generation laptops, mobile accessories as well as production-related products for customers in the mobile market. We remain very confident that our highly reactive and agile organization will continue to secure a strong position in the ever dynamic mobile devices market and are encouraged by our excellent technology positions that run across a wide range of new mobile computing platforms. In particular, mobile functionality continues to be integrated into an ever broader array of devices, expanding the growth opportunity for our interconnect and antenna products. Looking into the first quarter, we now expect a sequential reduction in sales of approximately 30% due to normal seasonality as well as the impact from strong ramp-ups that occurred during the second half of 2015. This decline is roughly similar to the seasonal decline that we experienced in the first quarter of 2015. At this point, we expect sales for the full year 2016 to be slightly down from our 2015 levels. Regardless of this more muted outlook for 2016, we remain extremely confident that our dynamic and agile team has positioned us to benefit from any increases in demand that may arise in this always exciting market. The mobile networks market represented 8% of our sales in the quarter as well as for the full year. And our sales in this market were a bit better than expected, but still declined from prior year by 7% in U.S. dollars and 2% in local currencies. Sequentially, our sales were essentially flat to the third quarter as growth in sales to wireless equipment manufacturers was offset by a normal seasonal decline in sales to service providers. No question that 2015 was a very challenging year in the mobile infrastructure market as our sales declined 18% in U.S. dollars and 13% in local currency, primarily due to a pause in spending by many wireless operators around the world. Nevertheless, we have continued to expand our position with customers around the world in the mobile infrastructure market. And in particular, we have made great strides in developing new interconnect and antenna products that are integrated into next-generation wireless systems. Looking into the first quarter as well as the full year 2016, we do expect a significant increase in our sales to the mobile infrastructure market due to the contributions from the FCI acquisition. While we do not at this time though expect overall spending environment to improve, our broadened product offering positions us better than ever before to capitalize on the opportunities that will arise when spending inevitably resumes in the future. Now, turning to the information technology and datacom market, sales in this market represented 15% of our sales in the fourth quarter and 16% of our sales for the full year 2015. As we had expected, our sales were down slightly from prior year as well as prior quarter as sales moderated in products that are integrated into servers, storage and networking equipment. For the full year of 2015, our sales grew by 2% in U.S. dollars and 3% in local currency as declines that we saw in storage and networking products were offset by increased sales into server applications, together with the strong progress that we have made selling into the new generation of web and datacenter customers. Regardless of this current moderation in growth, I could just say that we continue to make excellent progress in our development of advanced high-technology products as well as in our penetration of the many newly arising Web 2.0 and datacenter customers. Now, with the acquisition of FCI, we have truly the leading product offering for customers across all areas of the IT datacom market and this positions us very strongly as customers adapt to deal with the significant expansion of data traffic in all aspects around the world. Both our traditional as well as the new generation of customers are driving their datacenter equipment to new levels of performance in order to handle the rapid expansion of data that’s driven in particular by the proliferation of new mobile devices as well as by the continuing spread of video on the Internet and cloud computing. Looking ahead to the first quarter and the full year 2016, we expect a significant increase in our sales due to the FCI acquisition. And we continue to look forward to creating great long-term value with our many investments in this space. Finally, the broadband communication market represented 6% of our sales in the quarter as well as for the full year. And sales decreased slightly in U.S. dollars and were flat in local currencies from prior year as domestic MSO build-out activity slowed due to the traditional seasonality in that space. Sales were down slightly from the third quarter because of that seasonality. For the full year, our sales were down by 5% in U.S. dollars and 2% in local currency. And essentially, we were impacted by both the reduction in capital spending due to the many corporate consolidations that have occurred or are occurring in the broadband market together with the slowdown in spending by operators in certain regions, in particular Latin America, which as a result more due to the significant currency devaluations in that region. For the first quarter, while we expect demand to increase moderately from our current levels, we do believe that it’s still too early to expect growth for the full year of 2016. Nevertheless, as the industry eventually digests the many consolidations that are ongoing, we will be very well-positioned to capitalize with our expanded range of interconnect and cable products on the growth opportunities that will, no doubt, emerge. So, let me just say with respect to 2015, I am just extremely proud of our performance. While the global economy did weaken throughout the course of the year and the market environment remains even today very uncertain, the Amphenol organization continued and continues to execute extraordinarily well, both organically as well as through our acquisition program to expand our market position while strengthening our financial performance. The company’s superior performance is a direct reflection of our distinct competitive advantages, our leading technology, increasing position with customers in diverse markets, worldwide presence, our lean and very flexible cost structure combined all with our agile and entrepreneurial management team. Now, turning to the outlook. As I have already mentioned several times, there continues to be a great deal of market uncertainty around the world and accordingly and based on a continuation of the current economic environment as well as on constant exchange rates, we now expect for the first quarter and the full year 2016 the following results. For the first quarter, we anticipate sales in the range of $1.380 billion to $1.420 billion and EPS excluding one-time items, in the range of $0.55 to $0.57 respectively. This represents a sales increase versus prior year of 4% to 7% in U.S. dollars and 6% to 9% in local currency and an EPS change of down 4% to flat the prior year. For the full year 2016, we expect sales in the range of $6.04 billion to $6.2 billion and EPS excluding one-time items, in the range of $2.54 to $2.62, respectively. For the full year, this represents sales and EPS growth of 8% to 11% and 5% to 8% over 2015 levels. In constant currencies, this guidance represents a year-over-year growth of 9% to 12%. We are very, very encouraged by our current and strong outlook in sales and earnings, especially given the many dynamics across the global economy. And I am extremely confident that in the ability of our outstanding management team to build upon our newly established record levels of revenues and EPS and to continue to capitalize on the many opportunities to grow our market position and expand our profitability in 2016. And with that, Operator we would be very happy to take whatever questions there may be.