John Crum
Analyst · Brian Singer with Goldman Sachs
Thank you, Steve. North American production in the fourth quarter was up 26% sequentially. The main positive drivers were the consolidation of acquisitions in the Granite Wash development. The negatives were primarily associated with the ongoing permitting issues in the Gulf of Mexico. With that in mind, I will start with the Gulf of Mexico shelf. For perspective, in 2008, we drilled 62 gross wells in the Gulf of Mexico shelf. In 2009, we drilled 20 wells due to low product prices and the result in corporate capital curtailment. Consequently, we started 2010 with an especially strong 59-well inventory on Apache properties alone. That would be excluding the Devon and Mariner acquisition properties we got last year. Due to the moratorium and the permitting process delay, we were only able to drill 36, including the Devon properties. Similar restrictions affected the Mariner assets. With ongoing uncertainty around the permitting process, we cannot assume a normal year and as a result, we are planning 41 gross wells on the shelf, including Mariner and Devon properties. In spite of this, we anticipate region production to grow moderately in the 3% to 5% range in 2011 with a full year contribution of the 2010 acquisitions. The Gulf of Mexico shelf remains an attractive rate of return business and a big cash flow generator for Apache. The silver lining of two years of reduced activity is that when we get back to work at full pace, we will have a very robust pent-up inventory of drilling opportunities. With the Mariner acquisition we have formed a new deepwater region and are excited about its contribution potential to Apache's long-term growth. Mariner's deepwater team constitutes the core of the new regional organization, and we know Apache will benefit from their know-how and track record of project delivery. Our deepwater region brought on stream its first Apache project in late December. The Balboa field was developed through a 6-mile subsea tie back to the existing infrastructure with initial production of 6,500 barrels equivalent per day gross. Apache operates with a 50% working interest. During 2011, we expect four other tie back projects to come on stream at Bushwood, Wide Berth, Mandy and Ewing Bank 998. We expect 2011 deepwater production to average over 15,000 barrels per day subject to any regulatory delays. Looking beyond 2011, we have an attractive pipeline of deepwater development projects, including the world-class discoveries at Lucius and Heidelberg. We also have a broad exploration portfolio across 110 blocks. While we have moderate expectations until there is greater regulatory clarity, the potential for Apache to build a meaningful business in the deepwater is significant. We have also created a new region to focus on our Gulf Coast onshore assets where we control over 700,000 acres, including almost 300,000 acres in South Louisiana where we own the minerals. We believe the opportunities for growth onshore warrant having a dedicated organization and based on our recent experience in the Permian, since it was created as a focus region, we expect great things from our Gulf Coast onshore team. In 2011, we currently forecast strong single-digit growth for the Gulf Coast onshore region. Moving to the central region, we will keep about 12 rigs running all year long with more than 95% of those drilling horizontally. The Granite Wash play will remain a strong growth driver in 2011 where we will keep at least eight horizontal rigs busy during the year. We expect to drill 40 gross horizontal Granite Wash wells and achieve production growth of over 10% in 2011. During 2010, the central transition from vertical to horizontal well is almost completed. We control over 1 million acres primarily in Western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, which means that as new horizontal drilling plays emerge, the central region has a footprint to make those new opportunities material to Apache's growth. Moving to the Permian. We now own over 3 million gross acres with exposure to every play in the Permian basin. The BP and Mariner transactions enabled us to more than double our footprint from last year, given the excitement about the potential of the base and frankly, [indiscernible] (0:25:58.3) releasing our asset options. We are currently running 23 rigs in the Permian and plan to remain above 20 all year long, while drilling 368 wells for the year. Mariner's Deadwood assets will be the largest component of this activity. Our acreage is subject to continuous drilling process, so we are now running 11 rigs and will average 10 for the remainder of the year drilling 130 wells. We are primarily drilling vertical wells for Wolfcamp, which can enhance when we find possible strong play in the same wellbore. We are developing the acreage with vertical wells costing around $1.8 million. The typical IP is 125 barrels equivalent per day and produce EURs in the 150,000 boe's ultimate recovery with over 75% of that being liquids. These wells deliver rates of return well above 20% at plant prices, which are currently significantly [indiscernible] (0:27:04.3). We have already identified 800 locations in this asset alone, and that is before we include any horizontal prospectivity, which we are just now starting to evaluate. We hold 85,000 gross acres or 63,000 net. It's a great asset. The second largest component is our joint venture with Concho and the Empire/Yeso, where we're now running two rigs and we'll drill 55 wells this year. We have identified over 600 locations already. We expect these wells to be lower cost and generate higher rates of return than Deadwood. In 2010, we also had good results drilling horizontals in four different old water plants and continue to learn more about the potential for horizontals in the Permian basin. In 2011, we will drill 41 horizontal wells across a number of our assets. The Empire/Yeso area is the first phase of BP's 1.7 million gross acres that we acquired, where we will have a new regional project. We are currently working through an integration plan which will be completed by midyear. We are confident that we will generate numerous other project opportunities on those BP properties. As Steve noted, we're only starting to scratch the surface on our Permian opportunity set. We're in the early steps of evaluating horizontal potential in the basin and still are getting our arms around the entire BP opportunity set. We've gone from five operated rigs at this time last year to over 20 today. Half of those are operating on the Deadwood asset, which represents less than 4% of our acreage. We believe the Permian results will purely be a function of how much money we want to spend and how we pace ourselves. Outside the Mariner Deadwood position, almost all of our acreage is held by production, so we can develop at whatever pace is appropriate. We have conservatively identified over 5,000 locations and are poised to double our activity level over the next several years. With over 3 million gross acre spending every [indiscernible] (0:29:13.2) it's easy to see why we're excited about our Permian position. All in, we're currently forecasting a moderate single-digit growth in the Permian from fourth quarter 2010 to the 2011 average. But again, that will be a function of how we decide to change the pace as we integrate the BP assets. I should note that during the first half of February, we have experienced significant freeze offs in the area due to the unusual weather conditions, it's going to have a significant impact on first quarter's production somewhere in the range of 4,000 barrels per day for the quarter. Finally, in Canada during 2011, we're going to take advantage of our broad opportunity set and we will run two to three rigs each in our oil, EOR and liquid-rich West 5 and Kaybob areas and in exploration. In addition, we will have two-plus rigs running in the Horn River and Noel areas for a total of 10 rigs running during the drilling months. We expect Canada production for 2011 to grow in the strong single-digit range from fourth quarter 2010 levels. Our Noel tight gas project in the Montney area ramped up to 100 million a day by the end of the fourth quarter. 14 wells are drilled in 2010 with continued development of locations in the Cadomin & Doig formations. This activity will continue in 2011 with 11 more wells. The team's ability to optimize cost by moving to multilateral and pad development will make Noel a profitable project even at current gas prices. We have 75 additional locations identified in the Cadomin & Doig. The Horn River development will continue as wells drilled in prior years are completed. In addition, our partner in Cadomin will drill 1/2 of the pad this next year or in 2011. Kitimat LNG continues to move forward. Front-end engineering and design is underway. Last week, we, and our partner EOG announced [indiscernible] (0:31:20.2) to gain full ownership and control of the 287-mile pipeline, which will link the Canadian grid to the export facility. We are currently in OPEC discussions with several Asia-Pacific LNG buyers. We are targeting an investment decision by the end of the year and would expect to commence exports of 700 million feet of gas per day in late 2015, with significant expansion potential. Apache owns 51% of this project. We continue to advance other material lead plays in Canada, and we will comment on them at the right time over the coming quarters. I will conclude North American highlights by noting, in Canada's joint venture with PetroChina this last week, which would imply a value for our Canadian portfolio of over $20 billion based on reserve ratios. Combining the value of our Permian basin based on the Permian company valuations, this would imply that these two North American regions [indiscernible] (0:32:24.5) over 80% of Apache's entire current enterprise value. Now I'll turn it over to Rod Eichler for international.