Operator
Operator
Good morning. Thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon Plc's Second Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all parties will be in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer portion of today's call. If anyone has any objection, you may disconnect your line at this time. I would also like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded. And it is important to note that some of the comments in today's call may constitute certain statements that are forward-looking in nature as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Information concerning risk factors that could cause such differences are described in the press release covering our second quarter 2016 results as well as having been posted on our website. I would now like to hand the call over to Greg Case. Gregory C. Case - President, Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Thank you. And good morning, everyone, and welcome to our second quarter 2016 conference call. Joining me here today is our CFO, Christa Davies. I would note that there are slides available on our website for you to follow along with our commentary today. Consistent with previous quarters, I'd like to cover two areas before turning the call over to Christa for further financial review. First is our performance against key metrics we communicate to shareholders. Second is overall organic growth performance, including continued areas of strategic investment across Aon. On the first topic, our performance versus key metrics. Each quarter, we measure our performance against the key metrics we focus on achieving over the course of the year: grow organically, expand margins, increase earnings per share, and deliver free cash flow growth. Turning to slide three. In the second quarter organic revenue growth was 3%, highlighted by 4% growth in Retail Brokerage with 6% growth in the International Brokerage business. Operating margin increased 30 basis points, reflecting strong operating performance in Risk Solutions. EPS increased 6% to $1.39, reflecting operational improvement and effective capital management. And finally, free cash flow for the six months increased $224 million to $660 million, driven by a 32% increase in cash flow from operations and a decline in capital expenditures. Overall, results continue to reflect the strength of our industry-leading platform in a volatile microeconomic environment with positive performance across each of our key metrics, for both the second quarter and the first six months of 2016. Turning to slide four on the second topic of growth and investment. I want to spend the next few minutes discussing the quarter for both of our segments. In Risk Solutions, organic revenue growth was 3% compared to 2% in the prior-year quarter, driven by growth across all major businesses. As we've discussed previously, we're driving a set of initiatives and making strategic investments that are strengthening underlying performance and position our Risk Solutions segment for long-term growth and improved operating leverage with management of our renewal book portfolio through a proactive client partnership we call Aon Client Promise, which is driving retention rates of more than 90% on average across Retail Brokerage; new business generation of roughly $280 million across Retail Brokerage, including double digit growth in Asia and EMEA and another quarter of record new business in U.S. Retail; 21 consecutive quarters of positive net new business in core treaty reinsurance; and increased operating leverage from our significant investments in innovative technology and data and analytics, including Aon Inpoint, where we empower carriers to become more competitive, effective and operationally efficient by integrating our market-leading data and analytics with strategic consulting and access to Aon's unmatched expertise. This includes the Risk Insight Platform, which now captures 3.2 million trades and more than $160 billion of bound premium, and Review, our reinsurer dashboard. Another example is our Aon broking initiative to better match client need with insurer appetite for risk and to identify structured portfolio solutions. A great example of client impact in this area was the launch of Aon Client Treaty, the largest ever underwritten portfolio of risk in the history of Lloyd's, enabling our clients to access 20% of pre-secured unique co-insurance capacity. And finally, we're expanding our content and global footprint through tuck-in acquisitions that increase scale in emerging markets and expand capability. For example, in the second quarter, we completed the acquisition of Univers, an elective benefits enrollment and communications firm, strengthening our ability to serve clients as the leading provider of a comprehensive benefit solutions. Reflecting on our individual businesses within Risk Solutions. In the Americas, organic revenue growth was 2%. Exposures continued to be positive across the region, while the impact from pricing was negative, resulting in relatively stable market impact overall. We saw double digit growth in Affinity, driven by growth across all product lines. In U.S. Retail, we saw modest growth driven by record new business generation and strong retention. Results also reflect modest growth in Latin America, driven by new business generation, despite macroeconomic challenges facing the region. In international, organic revenue growth was 6% compared to 2% in the prior-year quarter. The impact from pricing remains negative on average, driven by fragile market conditions in various countries across Europe and Asia and continued pricing pressure in the Pacific region, while exposures are modestly improving. Results reflect solid growth across every major region, including EMEA, Asia, and the Pacific, driven by strength in both new business generation and management of the renewal book portfolio. In Continental Europe we delivered the highest organic revenue growth in over six years, with growth across all product lines, including Health & Benefits, Affinity, and Retail, reflecting Aon's strength in client leadership across the region despite macroeconomic environment that remains challenged in many countries. In Reinsurance, organic revenue growth was 1% compared to a negative 1% in the prior-year quarter. This marks the third consecutive quarter of positive growth in Reinsurance, further reflecting our previous guidance of an expected return to modest growth in 2016. Results in the quarter were primarily driven by growth in global facultative placements, cedent demand in Treaty, and from new business generation. Results were partially offset by an unfavorable market impact internationally. As the rate of price declines continue to moderate, capital is being deployed to new markets, including U.S. mortgage credit risk, life and annuity risk, and other emerging risks, such as cyber liability. And as highlighted in our prior discussions, new business opportunities for growth, combined with industry-leading data and analytics, has positioned our Reinsurance business for a return to modest growth in 2016. Turning to HR Solutions, organic revenue growth was 1% overall, as growth across high demand areas where we continue to invest was partially offset by a modest decline in benefits administration, and unfavorable timing. We continue to strengthen our industry-leading platform with investments in innovative solutions and client-serving capabilities that reflect Aon Hewitt's leadership and in-depth understanding of market trends, including solutions to help plan sponsors both manage pension risk and drive better retirement outcomes for their employees. A strong area of growth has been delegated investment consulting, where assets under management have grown from $10 billion to roughly $85 billion in five years. We expect continued global growth in this area as sponsors are faced with regulatory changes and increasingly complex global markets. Continued investments to strengthen our industry-leading position of health solutions, covering the full range of benefit strategies, client size, and funding choices, including our suite of private healthcare exchanges. We continue to see strong and steady growth across our entire suite of exchange solutions for companies of all sizes and industries. Starbucks recently joined a growing list of employers on our Active Healthcare Exchange. We're proud to help Starbucks introduce a new health solution that enables Starbucks' U.S. employees to have greater choice, opportunities for cost savings and personalized support to select and get the most out of their health insurance coverage. Starbucks' decision to adopt a consumer-driven approach to health benefits underscores the sustainability of our exchange model and proven results that our exchange has achieved on behalf of clients over the past several years. We also continue to invest in Software-as-a-Service models in our HR BPO business, where growth in new clients and conversion of existing clients is driving strong demand, as well as the expansion of our capabilities to include financial implementations. And finally, we're investing into data and analytics in our health and talent and rewards businesses to provide superior advice to drive better outcomes for our clients and our clients' employees. Turning to the individual businesses within HR Solutions, in Consulting Services, organic revenue growth was 1%. Results reflect growth in core pension solutions where we provide clients an in-depth approach to pension risk management and the best solutions to take advantage of the market shift from defined benefit to defined contribution. We also saw continued growth in retirement consulting, primarily driven by demand for delegated investment consulting services as an increasing number of clients find significant value in Aon's ability to provide advice and manage their retirement assets. Results in the quarter were partially offset by unfavorable timing of revenue in our compensation consulting practice. In Outsourcing, organic revenue growth was flat versus the prior-year quarter. We saw strong growth continue in HR BPO, driven by new client wins and cloud-based solutions. Results in the quarter were offset by a modest decline in benefits administration as well as a decline in project-related work around lump sum windows for pension plans that created an unfavorable comparison in the prior-year quarter. Overall, in HR Solutions, we expect to deliver improved organic growth in the second half of the year, driven primarily by growth in high demand areas where we've been investing, a modest benefit from revenue timing that impacted this quarter, and seasonal strength in the fourth quarter. In summary, for both the second quarter and the first six months, we delivered solid organic revenue growth against a volatile macroeconomic environment, improved operational performance, and generated substantial free cash flow. With that said, I'm now pleased to turn the call over to Christa for further financial review. Christa? Christa Davies - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you very much, Greg, and good morning, everyone. As Greg noted, against continued volatility in the macroeconomic environment, our industry-leading platform delivered solid progress in the first half of the year, with positive performance across each of our four key metrics. Results reflect organic growth in both segments, strong operating margin expansion in Risk Solutions and substantial free cash flow generation. Now, let me turn to the financial results for the quarter on page six of the presentation. Our core EPS performance, excluding certain items, increased 6% to $1.39 per share for the second quarter compared to $1.31 in the prior-year quarter. Certain items that were adjusted for in the core EPS performance and highlighted in the schedules on page 12 of the press release include non-cash intangible asset amortization and non-cash expenses related to certain pension settlements. There was no material impact on earnings per share related to foreign currency translation in the second quarter. If currency were to remain stable at today's rates, we would expect foreign currency translation to have no material impacts going forward. Now let me talk about each of the segments on the next slide. In our Risk Solutions segment, organic revenue growth was 3%. Operating margin increased 70 basis points to 24.9% and operating income increased 3% compared to the prior-year quarter. Operating margin improvement of 70 basis points includes a 50 basis point favorable impact from foreign currency translation. Excluding the impact from foreign currency, underlying operating margin improved 20 basis points in the quarter. Operating improvement in the second quarter reflects organic growth in each business, including Reinsurance, and improved returns on our investments in data analytics across the portfolio. For the first six months, operating margin improved 80 basis points, including a 40 basis point favorable impact from foreign currency translation. Our performance in the first half firmly positions the Risk Solutions segment for further margin expansion towards our long-term target of 26%. With normal seasonal weakness in Q3 and seasonal strength in Q4, we expect a stronger second half of the year for Risk Solutions. Included in our expectation are two underlying adjustments. We expect certain client revenue to shift from Q3 into Q4, and we expect a shift in certain underlying compensation expense from Q4 into Q3. As a result, we expect normal quarterly patterning to be more pronounced this year, with modest operating income growth in Q3, significant operating income growth in Q4 and no change to the full year expected performance. Turning to the HR Solutions segment. Organic revenue growth was 1%. Operating margin decreased 40 basis points to 12.8% and operating income decreased 8% compared to the prior-year quarter. For the first six months, the operating margin decreased 90 basis points and operating income decreased 11%. Reported results are in line with our previous guidance of flat to down in the first half. Performance was primarily driven by investments for future growth, timing of certain revenue in our compensation consulting business and an anticipated reduction in operating income reflecting the disposal of two businesses in previous quarters. While we continue to reduce certain expenses that supported those noncore businesses, the monetization of those businesses in previous quarters generated other income gains and cash proceeds that will ultimately be deployed to higher return on invested capital opportunities. Looking forward, in line with our previous guidance for HR Solutions, we expect a strong second half of the year. This expectation reflects normal seasonality in Q3 of relatively flat operating income growth and normal seasonal strength in Q4 of significant operating income growth, with full year results continuing to deliver solid organic revenue growth, further margin expansion towards our long-term operating margin target of 22% and increased operating income for the full year. Now let me discuss a few of the line items outside of the operating segments on slide nine. Unallocated expenses were $43 million compared to $41 million in the prior-year quarter. Interest income was $3 million compared to $4 million in the prior-year quarter. Interest expense increased $5 million to $73 million, due to an overlap of long-term debt placed in the first quarter with debt that matured in the second quarter. Other income was immaterial as the losses on certain long-term investments and foreign exchange hedging programs were offset by the sale of a certain business. Going forward, we expect a run rate of approximately $45 million per quarter of unallocated expense, $3 million per quarter of interest income and $71 million per quarter of interest expense. Turning to taxes, the adjusted effective tax rate on net income from continuing operations excluding the applicable tax impacts associated with non-cash pension settlements decreased to 17.4% compared to 18% in the prior-year quarter. This was driven by changes in the geographic distribution of income and certain favorable discrete tax adjustments. The prior-year quarter adjusted effective tax rate excluded the applicable tax impact associated with expenses related to legacy litigation. Lastly, average diluted shares outstanding decreased 6% to 269.8 million in the second quarter compared to 286.7 million in the prior-year quarter driven by share repurchase in previous quarters. The company did not repurchase shares in the second quarter. Strong cash flow generation was used in the near term for $500 million of debt that matured in the quarter and an attractive acquisition in the quarter in the elective benefit space. We expect to return to deploying capital to share repurchases in the second half of the year, reflecting our highest return on invested capital. The company has $3.3 billion of remaining authorization under its share repurchase program. Actual shares outstanding on June 30 was 265.8 million. And there are approximately 5 million additional dilutive equivalents. Estimated Q3 2016 beginning dilutive share count is approximately 271 million, subject to share price movement, share issuance, and share repurchase. Now let me turn to the next slide to highlight our solid balance sheet and strong cash flow growth on slide 10. At June 30, 2016, cash and short-term investments was $689 million. Total debt outstanding declined to approximately $6.2 billion and total debt to EBITDA on a GAAP basis declined 2.4 times, reflecting the extinguishment of $500 million of debt that came due in the quarter. Cash flow from operations for the first six months increased 32%, or $186 million, to $764 million, driven by an increase in net income, a decrease in cash tax payments, a decline in cash paid for pension contributions, and underlying working capital improvements. Strong progress in the first six months of the year. Free cash flow, as defined by cash flow from operations less CapEx, increased 51%, or $224 million, to $660 million, reflecting strong growth in cash flow from operations and a $38 million decrease in CapEx. Looking forward we expect to deliver double digit free cash flow growth for the full year 2016 and are firmly on track to deliver against our near-term goal of $2.4 billion of free cash flow for the full year 2017. Turning to the next slide to discuss our significant increases in free cash flow. We value the firm based on free cash flow and allocate capital to maximize free cash flow return. Free cash flow of $2.4 billion in 2017 is not our end goal, as further long-term sustainable free cash flow will be driven by continued operating income growth and additional working capital initiatives beyond 2017. There are four primary areas that are expected to contribute to our near-term goal of delivering $2.4 billion or more for the full year 2017. The first is continued operational performance driven by organic revenue growth and margin expansion. The second is working capital improvements as we focus on closing the gaps between receivables and payables. We've made substantial progress in this area over the last five years with further opportunity to increase free cash flow by over $500 million. Third is declining uses of cash for pension contributions, CapEx and restructurings, which we expect to free up more than $90 million of annual free cash flow between the end of 2015 and 2017. And fourth, lower cash tax payments, reflecting a lower effective tax rate. Turning to our pension plan. We continue to take significant steps to reduce volatility and liability. In the first half of 2016, we completed two transactions to materially de-risk our pension liabilities in the UK. The first was a buy-in completed with assets in the trust to reduce the size of our largest risk within certain UK pension schemes. And secondly, through a lump sum offering, Aon was able to reduce interest rate, investment and longevity risk associated with certain UK pension liabilities. These transactions resulted in $62 million of non-cash settlement charges and related advisory fees, which are adjusted for in our second quarter results. Both of these transactions were completed prior to the Brexit vote as a continuation of our de-risking efforts. As a result, our UK pension scheme funding status remained relatively flat through the Brexit result despite the recent fall in the UK interest rates and market volatility. Further, we expect pension contributions to decline by approximately $44 million in 2016 and expect non-cash pension income, excluding the expenses related to the described transactions, to be a modest benefit in 2016 versus 2015. In summary, we delivered solid results for the second quarter and the first six months of 2016 and continue to take certain steps to strengthen the return on invested capital and free cash flow. Against continued volatility in the macroeconomic environment, we expect improved organic revenue growth and operational performance in the second half of 2016, primarily driven by seasonal strength in Q4. Our industry-leading platform and innovative investments across data analytics continue to position the firm for long-term growth, increased operational leverage and substantial free cash flow generation towards our near-term goal of $2.4 billion for the full year 2017. With that, I'd like to turn the call back to the operator for questions.