Earnings Labs

Aon plc (AON)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call· Fri, Apr 26, 2013

$320.07

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Aon plc's First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would also like to remind all parties that this call is being recorded and that it is important to note that some of the comments in today's call may constitute certain statements that are forward-looking in nature as defined by the Private Securities Reform Act of 1995 (sic) [Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995]. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Information concerning risk factors that could cause such differences are described in the press release covering our first quarter results, as well as having been posted on our website. Now it is my pleasure to turn the call over to Greg Case, President and CEO of Aon plc.

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2013 conference call. Joining me here today is our CFO, Christa Davies. Consistent with previous quarters, I'd like to cover 3 areas before turning the call over to Christa for further financial review. And we note that there are slides available on our website for you to follow along with our commentary today. First is our performance against key metrics we communicate to shareholders; second is overall organic growth performance; and third is continued areas of strategic investment across Aon. On the first topic, our performance versus key metrics. Each quarter, we measure our performance against the 4 metrics we focus on achieving over the course of the year: grow organically, expand margins, increase earnings per share, and deliver free cash flow growth. Turning to Slide 3. In the first quarter, organic revenue growth was 2% overall, driven by strong growth in Retail Brokerage. Operating margin was essentially flat, as a significant increase in Risk Solutions margin was offset by a decline in HR Solutions and the unallocated section. EPS increased 13% to $1.11, reflecting both solid operating performance and effective capital management. And finally, free cash flow increased $80 million in our seasonally weakest quarter, driven by strong working capital performance. Overall, a solid start to the year as we strengthen our industry-leading platform for long-term growth, strong free cash flow generation and increased financial flexibility. Turning to Slide 4, on the second topic of growth. I want to spend the next few minutes discussing the quarter for both of our segments. In Risk Solutions, overall organic revenue growth was 3% compared to 4% in the prior year quarter, with growth across every major business. As we've discussed previously, we're driving a set of initiatives that…

Christa Davies

Analyst

Thanks so much, Greg, and good morning, everyone. As Greg noted, our performance reflects a solid start to the year with double-digit earnings growth. We continue to position Aon for long-term growth, strong free cash flow generation and increased financial flexibility, as highlighted by the repurchase of $300 million of ordinary shares in the quarter. Now let me turn to the financial results for the quarter, as highlighted on Page 6 of the presentation. Our core EPS performance, excluding certain items, increased 13% to $1.11 per share for the first quarter compared to $0.98 in the prior year quarter. Results reflect the strong performance in our Risk Solutions segment, a lower effective tax rate and effective capital management in the quarter. Certain items that were adjusted for in the core EPS performance and highlighted in the schedules on Page 13 of the press release include noncash intangible asset amortization, restructuring charges and redomicile costs primarily for legal and advisory fees to complete the transaction. Foreign currency translation had a $0.02 favorable impact on EPS in the quarter. If currency were to remain stable at today's rates, we would expect no material translation impact to EPS in the second quarter of 2013. Now let me talk about each of the segments on the next slide. In our Risk Solutions segment, organic growth was 3%. Operating margin increased 110 basis points to 22.5%, and operating income increased 9% versus the prior year quarter. Organic growth, restructuring savings and a 40-basis-point favorable impact from foreign currency translation more than offset a minus 20-basis-point unfavorable impact from a significant decline in investment income due to lower short-term interest rates globally. Let me spend a moment on the formal restructuring programs' key initiatives that have enabled concurrent funding of investments and long-term structural margin expansion.…

Operator

Operator

Our first question comes from Adam Klauber, William Blair. Adam Klauber - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: In the Consulting segment, it sounded like Europe was somewhat weak. What was the growth in the -- just the U.S.?

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

We don't talk overall, Adam, sort of a specific region, but as we would describe is, net-net, expectations for the year continue to be exactly where they were as we left off last year, kind of low mid-single digits across the board for the year. U.S. was stronger than Europe for obvious reasons when you think about discretionary spend and how clients are reacting under the current situations they're in. But the underlying programs we've put in place to build client retention and obtain new clients, strong in the U.S., strong in Europe, and obviously, the headwinds are a bit stronger in Europe than the U.S. Adam Klauber - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Okay. And then as far as the healthcare exchange, you mentioned that the pipeline for new potential clients is looking good. After you signed up several large clients at the end of the year, did that really raise perception, I guess, number one? And number two, as we think about the year-end 2013 enrollment season, any -- I know you can't set a number on it, but is it possible to sign up materially more clients than you did at the end of 2012?

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

Yes, if you step back and think about the exchanges overall, remember we've got a retiree exchange. Navigators has actually been in place and is working very, very well with a pipeline that's growing. You're referring to the corporate exchange, and you're exactly right. We were the first to put a multi-carrier exchange in place and actually bring it live. And we brought it live with clients in the last renewal period. And as you just described, having done that successfully, all those clients are referenceable, very positive reaction. As you might expect with a proven concept, that has tremendous benefits for companies and even for employees over time, you're getting a lot more demand in the context than we saw last year. Exactly what we expected. Let's say, from our standpoint, what we want to do is continue to grow and build out that -- the exchanges on the corporate side. The team's done a terrific job in doing that. We've got a very robust pipeline going into this renewal season, and we expect to continue to see that grow and see the return from that investment. So from our standpoint, it's going exactly as we had expected, with probably even a little more robust demand than we thought. And certainly, as you look at the competitive environment, you're seeing a lot of other folks think about this space as well. Adam Klauber - William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division: Okay. And one final question on HR Solutions margin. Clearly, first quarter is a slower seasonal quarter and you had some expenses. Without putting a number on it, do you think the margin goes up from 1Q from here?

Christa Davies

Analyst

Yes, we do. What we would say is it's going to improve sequentially each quarter during the year. And as we gave guidance, we still think we're exactly on track for mid-single-digit operating improvements for 2013, down in the first half and up in the second half. And due to the seasonality you described, you're exactly right, that Q4 will be seasonally higher than it has been historically, primarily due to healthcare exchanges.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Brian Meredith, UBS.

Brian Meredith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

A couple quick questions here for you. First, Christa, on the guidance in the HR Solutions business for income for the year, did that include the $10 million of litigation, or should we strip that out when we're thinking about growth for the year?

Christa Davies

Analyst

No, it's exactly in line with what we said at the end of Q4, Brian, so we do think we're going to get the $10 million back.

Brian Meredith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

So you'll get the $10 million back also. Okay, great. Second question, Greg, more for you. On this Berkshire deal that you all did. I guess the question I have there is, what has the Lloyd's market kind of reaction been from your perspective? And is there any risk, kind of from a revenue perspective, perhaps Reinsurance or something, where some of the Lloyd's syndicates may not be too happy about it?

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

Yes, Brian, as we've looked at this, this really is a client solution, first and foremost. It's a client solution, as we've described it, that brings AA+ rated capacity into the market in a way it's never been brought into the market before. I would also say, as I know you know, RIMS is just concluding now on the West Coast, and the client reaction from the announcement has actually been quite positive. If you think about it, if you're a client in an area of constrained capital, this is now another area of capacity that just wasn't there before. As we've described, so it's truly a focus on kind of client need and client benefit. As we've also talked with Lloyd's about is, currently is linked to Lloyd's. So it really, we think, will actually provide some positive momentum into the Lloyd's marketplace overall, and we're going to continue to discuss it with them. Lloyd's is, obviously, a very important partner, and we're going to continue to work with our partners to serve our clients. But at its coal face [ph], this is truly a client-focused effort, and it's beginning to play out exactly like that.

Operator

Operator

Next question is Meyer Shields, KBW. Meyer Shields - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: Greg, you've mentioned the client interest in the acceptance of the Berkshire deal. Is there going to be any negative impact on Reinsurance revenues from, let's say, other Lloyd's participants that feel like they're getting squeezed out?

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

Well, listen, again, back to -- here, our focus really is on the client-serving capability of this. And by the way, Lloyd's is also a very client service-focused partner as well in the context of what we do. So from our standpoint, we see this as a net positive overall. We're obviously in active conversations, as we are with Lloyd's. We're roughly 22%, 23% of Lloyd's business overall, so I think probably the single largest partner with Lloyd's. So it's a very, very important partner. But in the context of that, we think this initiative is going to be very -- it has already been extremely client-friendly and beneficial. And in that context, it really reflects the strength of our data and analytics and our approach to the overall market that we can bring to bear on behalf of clients that others haven't been able to do. So that's how we've looked at it, that's how it's playing out, and we're going to keep focused on client benefit. Meyer Shields - Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division: Okay, I understand. And Christa, you mentioned that unallocated expenses were high in the quarter because of the redomicile. Is that a run rate, or this just a set of expenses associated with the move that should wind down pretty quickly?

Christa Davies

Analyst

No, it is going to be run rate, so we've now reforecasted the unallocated expenses to be $45 million a quarter going forward.

Operator

Operator

Next question is Jay Cohen, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Jay Adam Cohen - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

A couple questions. The first is, the organic growth in the HR Solutions business really fell pretty significantly from the fourth quarter, which may have been overstated. And I'm wondering if -- what the change was between the fourth quarter and the first quarter.

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

So Jay, as we -- if you step back and think about the year overall, don't overplay in any single quarter too much, our view is exactly as we left off in the fourth quarter of last year. And really, it's true for top line and bottom line. We think it's going to be mid-single digits for the year across -- from a growth standpoint, both in the Consulting side and in the Outsourcing side. We saw a little more pressure than expected in the first quarter. There are -- there's a couple things that were timing, a couple things that were sort of client discretionary pressure in Europe, as we described before. But the takeaway we want you to have from this call is that we really expect low-single digits for the year overall, and that's fully online. And as Christa described as well, we expect the same on the operating income growth side too, low-single digits.

Jay Adam Cohen - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst

Got it. And then on the timing, so when you have a timing issue, you're losing revenue either from future quarters, so it will come in future quarters, or you earned it earlier. How does the timing work here? Is this stuff that will come in later in the year that you didn't see in the first quarter?

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

Yes, it's a little bit of stuff that will come in later, as we described before, but it's also a little bit more on the seasonality side as we've pushed on the healthcare exchanges, and those are going to be more of a fourth quarter event than they are a first quarter event. But net-net, as we look at the years, as I said, we expect low single-digit growth on the top line, both on the Consulting side and the Outsourcing side, and that hasn't changed at all.

Operator

Operator

Next question is Greg Locraft, Morgan Stanley.

Gregory Locraft - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst

Just again to sit on the European slowdown and the impact in HR. If I go back to my notes in the second quarter of last year, you all mentioned that the first quarter is seasonally the most important quarter for Europe. What I'm wondering is, is was that commentary based on the overall corporation, was it an HR Solutions comment, or was it a risk management comment?

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

No, the -- as you think about the patterning of revenue across Aon, this is really what you're describing is truly focused on Risk and not on HR Solutions. So if you think about our Risk business overall, the first quarter is very important from a European standpoint. The fourth quarter is very important from an Americas and a U.S. Retail standpoint. So that's how the Risk business plays out. So that commentary was directly focused on Risk and not HR Solutions.

Gregory Locraft - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst

Okay. Perfect. And then, I guess, just a follow-up then. The organic and the international division of Risk, actually, was fine. I'm assuming Europe is sitting in there. And so therefore, there's no slowdown there. You sort of hit it seasonally well. I'm sort of scratching my head as to why the miss out of Europe in HR Solutions, but I'm also appreciating that maybe it wasn't a miss relative to what you guys thought you were going to do this year anyway because the guidance remains the same.

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

Yes, and if -- you're exactly right. If you parse the two, stay on risk for a second, 3%, we feel good about across international, always like it to be stronger. International also includes Asia and Pacific. Those are particularly strong. I want to be clear, there is real headwind in Europe. Our colleagues are doing a great job fighting through that with very, very strong positions we have in the marketplace, managing the renewal book. So there's real pressure there. There's certainly less pricing benefit, if any, in that theater. So there's real pressure there, and our colleagues have done a good job sort of overcoming that to kind of get to the 3% outcome. And as I said before, certainly, positively impacted by Asia and Pacific. And then as we've said on HR Solutions, we are exactly as we expect to be for the year, mid-single-digit growth across the board on Consulting and Outsourcing. A little more pressure than we thought in the first quarter, but it'll play out the same over time.

Operator

Operator

Next question is Mike Nannizzi, Goldman Sachs.

Michael Nannizzi - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Greg, could you talk a little bit more about the trends that you're seeing in the domestic risk book and, in particular, kind of on the renewals side? What do you think is contributing other than some exclusive actions you're taking? What is contributing to the fact that renewals are -- the profile of the renewal book is improving? And I have just one follow-up.

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

So this really starts back to the investments we've made over a period of time, which we're rolling out globally, started in the U.S. and are now rolling out around the world. And as we have talked over the last number of quarters, we've invested heavily to put those in place. By the way, in the context of doing that, it's cost us some margin. And as those have come to fruition, we feel like we're going to get operating leverage, and that's really what you're starting to see. And that shows up in areas like Client Promise that we've rolled out, and the Revenue Engine, also areas as we've rolled out GRIP in the U.S. and now around the world. So these are fundamental investments that we believe are strengthening the business and strengthening our ability to both bring new clients in but also improve the value proposition to existing clients. And in doing so, you're going to increase retention and increase rollover. And that's really what we're seeing in the U.S. and we anticipate seeing around the world.

Michael Nannizzi - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Can you tell me just in terms of like your relationship with clients, and we've had a couple years of rate gains here, are you able to secure better rates for your clients than the market overall? And is that a factor as people become a little bit -- maybe a little bit more bristled about further rate gains? Is that a relevant dynamic?

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

Yes, what I would say is, so against -- we're not going to speak to specific competitors. But Aon is fundamentally built and has made what we believe to be unprecedented investment in content and capability that enable us to actually understand the market, measure risk and then bring the market to bear on behalf of our clients, respectfully, better than anyone else in the world. That's really the focus of the firm. You think about Aon Benfield. Aon Benfield spends in excess of $120 million a year on content and capability to help clients understand how to understand, measure risk, reduce risk, change volatility, reduce volatility. And in that regard, these are truly industry-leading investments. The purpose of these investments is to help drive better value for clients, and that shows up in multiple ways, terms, conditions, price, et cetera. And the same is true on the Retail side when you think about what we've done with the Global Risk Insight Platform. The Risk Insight platform, literally, is the single biggest database of risk information in the world. And as we mine that on behalf of our clients and better match carrier capital to client needs, we believe they benefit substantially. And if clients understand value, they'll pay for value. And that's what we're starting to see.

Michael Nannizzi - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Great. And just one follow-up, if I could, for Christa. I was trying to understand just the math on HR operating income. Let me know if this is wrong, but I think with kind of low-single-digit growth on the organic side, it would seem like you would need a couple hundred basis points of improvement year-over-year in the back half of the year to hit that mid-single-digit operating income increase year-over-year. Is that right or -- and if so, is that kind of what you're expecting?

Christa Davies

Analyst

Yes, we are. And what we would say is, as we think about the year, we originally gave guidance to say that we would be down in the first half and up in the second half. We still believe that's right. And in terms of operating income patterning, it's really essentially down in Q1, essentially flat in Q2 and 3 and up in Q4. And the up in Q4 is substantial, as you described, really driven by seasonality, healthcare exchanges and restructuring savings.

Michael Nannizzi - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

Okay. So it's further back-loaded. So it's not really not back half, it's really fourth quarter?

Christa Davies

Analyst

Yes, it's mostly fourth quarter, that's right. Really primarily driven by the seasonality, because the healthcare exchange investment and the revenue from healthcare exchange is really just showing up in Q4, makes Q4 sort of much more seasonally acute than it's previously been.

Operator

Operator

Last question is Mike Zaremski, Crédit Suisse. Michael Zaremski - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Christa, could you update us on the client invoicing issue that took place last year and whether we should still expect a $350 million benefit to free cash flow this year? And I had a follow-up.

Christa Davies

Analyst

Yes, we do expect to receive that benefit this year. We are continuing to make progress every quarter. And so we feel good about that progress. Michael Zaremski - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. And in regards to the Aon Hewitt restructuring plan, the 2012 10-K cites expected personnel reductions of 2,000. I noticed that number was up from 1,500 to 1,800 in the prior guidance or 10-K. So should the increased reduction result in eventual -- eventually, additional cost saves?

Christa Davies

Analyst

Look, as we continue to implement the plans, we continue to update the numbers. And you see the numbers move slightly, as we update the most accurate numbers in the press release, as you can see, and we'll have them in the Q this quarter. Overall, we are on track to receive the $355 million of savings. So exactly where they come from does shift slightly between workforce reduction and leases on a quarterly basis as we complete the activities.

Operator

Operator

I would now like to turn the call back over to Greg Case for closing remarks.

Gregory C. Case

Analyst

Thanks. I want to thank everybody for being part of the call this morning. We appreciate your interest in Aon and look forward to the conversation next quarter. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time.