Jeffrey Kip
Analyst · Truist
A great multipart but very smart question from you, Dan. I should expect nothing less. So yes, $700 billion TAM is residential construction, specialty construction, home services, total job value that we think is our target market for our platform and customer base. Today, we capture below 1.5%. The market is split 75% larger Pro, 10 employees or more, a 25% smaller Pro. We think we have 3% to 4% share in the smaller Pro market, and we're under 0.5% of the large Pro. We have a strong view, AI, no AI, we can replicate the share of the small Pro market in the large Pro market. We think we've underinvested and not executed well there over time. Doing just that -- and getting to that share would give us $2.5 billion of revenue with a 10% take rate, which is about our current take rate, which is Pros pay $50 a lead, they win 1 in 7, 1 in 8. The average job is about $4,000. And so we think about it that way, I'll come back to that. On our platform, 10 homeowners submit jobs. Seven of the jobs get completed, but only 2 of those are won by our PROs. If you look at our core long-standing strongest brands and businesses in Europe, which would be the U.K., Germany and the Netherlands, they win more like 3.5. So we believe that doubling that too is well within reach. And so Pros are winning twice as many, 4 out of the 7 instead of 2 out of the 7 that takes your share of the total job value in the market from 3% to 4% to 6% to 8% or 7% as a proxy. If you come back to the take rate, Pros are looking at their overall P&L and their share, they're paying to support their revenue. We think tend is a pretty good marker where you're driving good value. By improving the win rate, we would lower the take rate unless we took lead pricing, taking lead pricing is one way to keep the take rate, a fair take rate, another way is charging some for the software. So you're correct. There's 2 markets there. There's the lead market where maybe we'd like to be a little less than 10, to drive real value there. But there's also the software market and based on our research and looking at -- if you take 10% of that $700 billion job value market, it's $70 billion, that's the potential revenue. We think that there is a comparably sized market, $50 billion to $70 billion maybe, in services and software to sell the Pros that is likely growing as software transforms with AI. So on some level, there's $140 billion of revenue out there. I think our focus is on delivering against the [ 70 ] delivering for our Pros but it is a product that while we're first focused on Angi leads, our Pros should be able to use for other leads and frankly, running their overall business. So you're not wrong. And when we think about our $5 billion revenue target, one way to do it is to get 7% of the market and a 10% take rate. Another way to do it is to get a lower percent of the market and effectively have software and services revenue. And then the third leg we have is actually accelerating growth even faster in Europe, which can be a material contributor because there's another $500 billion or $600 billion of TAM in Europe which we've been less successful at penetrating. We think that's tied a bit to market structure, and that's a different conversation. But we think we have multiple ways to get to the $5 billion. And I think you've hit you've hit well on a couple of them.