Michael J. Jackson
Analyst · Stephens
Here's what we're looking at. Okay, we all know we had a bubble in housing construction '04, '05, '06, up over 2 million units a year, including multiple households. Then we had the collapse and household construction dropped to less than 500,000 a year. And basically, we've been sitting there for 4 or 5 years, clearing the inventory. And anybody who was in home construction did not buy a new pickup truck. We're now approaching 1 million units, and I agree with you, John, completely, we're not back to trend yet on household construction. It should be, let's say, a sustainable rate of 1.5 million, something like that, but it's certainly double. This year will be double what it was 3 or 4 years ago. So you have to take into effect, we had a depression in housing. We had a depression in autos. And housing has finally cleared the inventory, and we're seeing that disruption [ph]. And all these contractors are looking out in the next several years and see they're going to have work, and they're coming in and buying pickup trucks. I would also not underestimate the impact of the energy sector, particularly in Texas, Colorado. For us, this frac-ing technique is like a production technique. It's not like drilling a well. It's very labor-intensive compared to other ways to get petroleum, and they're high-paying jobs. So all of a sudden, you have these 2 industries, housing and energy, that have jobs that can't be outsourced to India or any place else in the world. These are good American workers. And they all want full size pickup trucks to drive to work, and our pickup truck sales in the first quarter are up 18%. So listen, I'm not forecasting the recovery in the economy, but I am saying, compared to 2 years ago, 3 years ago, there are bright spots in this economy in housing, energy and automotive that would say this tepid recovery is moving into a phase where it can stand on its own 2 legs. And as fiscal policy and monetary policy become less supportive over the next year or 2, we can still -- the economy can still probably support GDP growth to 2% to 3%. That's the transition phase that I feel we're in.