Carlos Garcia-Moreno
Analyst · Walter Piecyk with BTIG. Your line is open
Thank you, Daniel. Good morning everyone. In the fourth quarter and amid continued economic expansion in the U.S. and strong employment gains, renewed fears about impending interest rate increases by the fed surfaced again leading to a significant depreciation of equities and other financial assets and to the strengthening of the dollar against most currencies. Other than the Brazilian real, that recovered by nearly 5% from its election-driven lows, all other currencies in Latin America were down versus the U.S. dollar with the Colombian pesos falling on average 6.4% from the prior year quarter and in Mexican pesos 4.1%. In the fourth quarter, we saw greater commercial dynamism in Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, the Argentina block, the U.S., Dominican Republic to name a few. With prepaid additions surging quarter-over-quarter as you can see in the chart in all of these comp, say, Brazil and postpaid jumping in Brazil. So you have to look at the chart in Mexico we went from 100,000 prepaid net additions in third quarter, 550,000 in the fourth quarter. In Colombia, we went from negative 35,000 in the third to roughly 400,000 in the fourth quarter. And these figures which are quite remarkable on a sequential basis are also very strong if you compare them with the year earlier quarter. That’s for instance in the case of Mexico net adds are up roughly 65%, in the case of Colombia they were up 150%. And in the case of postpaid, the performance -- the star performance was Brazil. They added 1.2 million subs in the last quarter, which compares to about 900,000 than they had a year before. So they have very strong sequential growth of net additions, but also very important if you compare them to the results of the year before. Altogether we added 1.4 – 1.5 million postpaids in the quarter and as you can see in the chart they were mostly in Brazil and Mexico. On the fixed line platform, we gained 590,000 RGUs, principally in Mexico, Central America and Brazil. Now year-on-year, on mobile postpaid base exceeded the fastest rate of growth at 7.2%, as you see in the chart followed by fixed broadband with 5.6%. So postpaid at 7.2%, fixed broadband with 5.6%. Fixed-voice and PayTV accesses declined by approximately 0.5% each and in prepaid mobile we had a major, we had a major cleanup of our subscriber base in both Brazil and Central America leading to a 4% fall in 2018 in spite of significant prepaid growth in the countries that I mentioned earlier: Mexico, Dominican Republic, Colombia et cetera. Now we had revenues of MXN 262 billion, which were nearly flat in Mexican peso terms in the year earlier quarter. At constant exchange rates, service revenues expanded 3%, roughly the same pace observed the prior quarter as the acceleration of service revenue growth in Colombia, the U.S. and Argentina was compensated by a slight deceleration in Brazil and Mexico, stemming from aggressive holiday promotions that included large allotments of data and airtime. The EBITDA came in at MXN 70.6 billion in the quarter, and as with service revenues, it was almost flat year-on-year in Mexican peso terms, whereas at constant exchange rates, it rose 6.7%. The latter figure includes the net effect of the release of certain provisions in Brazil and some new charges in Central America. Correcting for these one-off moves, EBITDA increased by 6.1% year-on-year in constant terms. Now by region, service revenues expanded faster in South America at 3.9%, as you can see in the chart, the green line; followed by North America, which is basically, the U.S. and Mexico, growing at 3%; with stable growth in Europe at 1.2%, the yellow line; and declining rates in Central America, that's the red line, which is explained mostly on account of the situation in Nicaragua and Honduras. Mobile service revenues accelerated in the U.S. In fact, it was the best performance in at least six quarters, Argentina and the Dominican Republic. On the fixed-line platform, Colombia, Chile and Ecuador maintained a positive trend. Now if we look at service revenue by business line, service – fixed-broadband and mobile postpaid were the main drivers of revenue growth for the company as a whole increasing 9.5% and 7.9%, respectively, followed by mobile prepaid revenues up 3.2%. As you can see, again, in the chart, the red line, prepaid revenues stopped or declined and they are now surging. There has been a very sharp acceleration of prepaid revenue growth. And if we look at the operations all throughout, most of the operations expanded EBITDA margins compared to the prior year with an important exception which is Central America, which has had 4.4% decline in margins year-on-year. I think it can be explained essentially by one-off non-cash adjustments, mostly related to some tax provisions in Honduras. But as you can see on the right-hand side of the chart, the reported EBITDA for Central America decreased 15.9%. However, if we correct for one-off adjustments and they were partly in the fourth quarter of 2018, but also partly in the fourth quarter of 2017, when we had released certain provisions, the net effect is 7.3%. And then if we compare with – if we look at constant exchange rates because there were some move in the currencies in Latin America – in Central America, the actual organic reduction of EBITDA was 3.7% and not the 15.9% that was reported initially. Now in Mexico, mobile service revenue growth has remained stable, as you can see here also in the chart. We've been covering around 8% year-on-year, that's the blue line. But these revenues have trended down, okay? So they – in the fourth quarter, they were down 5.1% year-on-year. Continuing with Mexico, you can see on the chart, the prepaid revenues outpaced those from postpaid for the first time in several quarters, with ARPU stabilizing on a couple of store increase of prepaid clients and the aggressive commercial promotions. So again, very importantly, Mexico for the first time in various quarters, prepaid revenues growing faster than postpaid revenues. Now in the case of Mexico again, fixed-voice revenues accelerated their decline to minus 12.6%, which reflects continued headwinds from long distance revenues, which have been falling for quite some time, although the decline is now much less because we have much less left of revenues by the way. But we also had a substantial reduction of interconnection revenues on the fixed-line side, driven by a 15% drop in rates and a 7% decline in traffic. Fixed-broadband revenues are only slightly less than 1% as you can see on the right-hand side. So these are the business lines that are growing on the fixed-line platform. They are growing 0.8% fixed-broadband, but corporate networks revenue, which had been declining, is now recovering fast. In this quarter, reported a 3.1% growth rate from the prior year. In Brazil, fixed-broadband revenue growth over two third of mobile postpaid revenues with prepaid revenues on the right, you can see the number one business line today in the fixed-broadband, but followed very closely by mobile postpaid, and now what you can see is that the prepaid revenues, which have been declining have turned. They're effecting a very significant turnaround and they may be accelerating. So that's also very important for Brazil. On the right-hand side, you see that fixed-voice revenues are falling at probably the same rate. They have been relatively stable around 18% decline, but PayTV appears to be recovering, okay? PayTV revenues have been a significant driver on the fixed-line platform. They seem to have bottomed, as you can see on the chart. And our operating profit increased by 25.6% to MXN 36 billion. And our comprehensive financing costs was around 68% from the year earlier quarter to MXN 12 billion. A reduction that arises from the release of provisions in link to the judicial resolution of tax disputes, which our also subsidiary Embratel had claimed that PIS-COFINS taxes should not be considered as part of the base for the computation of the ICMS taxes. We obtained a net profit of MXN 0.5 billion in the quarter, bringing the total for the year to MXN 46 billion, which was 8% more than the year before. Our capital expenditures totalled MXN 152 billion throughout 2018, whereas our overall shareholder distributions, which are share buybacks and net dividend payments, totalled MXN 21 billion. We directed a significant part of our cash flow to the reduction of liabilities, directing a total of MXN 14 billion to pension obligations and MXN 42 billion to our net debt. So here I'd just like to stress whereas financial debt came down by MXN 42 billion, that's the one that we always look at when we are looking at leverage ratios, fact to remind is that we actually directed MXN 56 billion all in all to reduction of our liabilities, and this is a number that the rating agencies look at. So they're not only looking at the financial debt, but also the one that we have on the pension obligations. So total amount funneled by America Movil to the reduction of overall liabilities was MXN 56 billion in the year, which is a bit more than a third of the total CapEx that we have, just to put it in perspective. Altogether and after taking into account foreign exchange variations on the peso value of our outstanding obligations, our net debt came down by MXN 46 billion from the close of 2017 to MXN 568 billion which is equivalent to 1.80 selling times the year's EBITDA. Well, thank you for listening to the presentation. I would like to pass the floor back to Daniel so that we can begin the Q&A Session. Thanks you.