Earnings Labs

American Woodmark Corporation (AMWD)

Q3 2009 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 19, 2009

$44.01

-3.99%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-4.71%

1 Week

-7.58%

1 Month

+4.18%

vs S&P

-0.98%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day everyone and welcome to this American Woodmark Corporation conference call. Today’s call is being recorded. The company has asked us to read the following Safe Harbor statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All forward-looking statements made by the company involve material risks and uncertainties and are subject to change based on factors that maybe beyond the company’s control. Accordingly, the company’s future performance and financial results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in any such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to those described in the company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Annual Report to shareholders. The company does not undertake to publicly update or revise its forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that any projected results expressed or implied therein will not be realized. Now at this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Glenn Eanes. Please go ahead sir.

Glenn Eanes

Management

Good morning ladies and gentlemen and welcome to this American Woodmark conference call to review the results of our third fiscal quarter of our fiscal 2009. Thank you for taking time to participate. Participating on the call today from American Woodmark will be Kent Guichard, Chief Executive Officer and President and Jon Wolk, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Kent will begin with some opening comments and then Jon will review the results of the quarter and year-to-date information, concluding with a outlook on the future and after Jon’s comments, Kent and Jon will be happy to answer your questions. Kent.

Kent Guichard

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you Glenn and good morning everyone. In a moment, I’ll turn the call over to Jon as Glenn mentioned, who’ll walk us through the details on the third quarter along our standard format. Before getting into those details, I’d like to make a couple of comments to sets some concepts specifically relating to the new construction and remodeling markets and to our experience in this environment, particularly over the last quarter, our third quarter ended January. First as it relates to revenues, sales in our third quarter on a sequential basis continue to slide. Second quarter sales ending last October were 3% below first quarter sales ended in July and then third quarter was also 3% below the second quarter. If you go back and look historically, you can do something historically. I’m not sure about seasonality, I’m not sure in this environment there is such a thing as seasonality any more, but certainly our top-line on a sequential basis continues to slide up a little bit. On a year-over-year basis, sales in our third quarter were essentially flat, they are down by 1%, but essentially flat with last year. Considering the external environment, almost recent sales performance for three months is somewhat counter intuitive. So, I just wanted to open up with a couple of comments to try and set some context around that. It’s not counter intuitive in the sense that sequential sales are declining in this market with what’s going on in the world. It is however I think somewhat counter intuitive in the sense that our year-over-year performance for the quarter is different than most of the widely referenced industries for economic building and remodeling activity during that period and in other published reports that you may have picked up. On a new construction side,…

John Wolk

Management

Thanks Kent. Good morning everybody. As you know we released the results of our third quarter fiscal 2009 that ended January 31, 2009 this morning. Our release contained the following highlights; net sales for the quarter were $131.2 million down 1% below the prior year’s third quarter sales and income for the quarter was slightly above breakeven as compared with net loss of $2 million from the prior years third quarter. Diluted earnings per share was zero for the quarter as compared with the loss of $0.14 per diluted share in the prior years third quarter and the company generated $5.3 million of free cash flow during the third quarter. For the nine months ended January 31, net sales were $405.2 million, down 12% versus last years first nine months. Net income was loss of $0.3 million down from net income of $4.2 million in the prior years first nine months. Diluted earnings per share was a loss of $0.02 compared with earnings per diluted share of $0.29 in the prior years first nine months and the company generated free cash flow of $14.8 million, compared with $23.8 million in the first nine months of the prior fiscal year. Regarding our third quarter sales performance, net sales for the third quarter were 1% below of the prior fiscal year and for the nine months ended January 31 were 12% less than the prior fiscal year. In the remodeling market several factors have combined to continue the markets negative sales momentum. Existing home sales, a leading indicator for home improvement spending were $4.9 million during the calendar year of 2008, down 13% of prior year levels. Inventories of existing homes for resale which range from six to nine months in the first half of calendar 2007 consistently ranged near 10 months…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. (Operator Instructions) We’ll go first to Eric Bosshard with Cleveland Research.

Mark - Cleveland Research

Management

Good morning guys. This is Mark stepping in for Eric.

Kent Guichard

Chief Executive Officer

Good morning

Jon Wolk

Management

Hi. Mark.

Mark - Cleveland Research

Management

First question, in term of the retail promotions you guys talked about, are you seeing any sort of halo benefit in the current quarter, or maybe kitchen designers who typically didn’t sell your cabinets, but did during the promotion, are continuing to push your product here in February and then in addition to that, the competitive environment, you’re seeing anything different from pears that might cause you to start to lower your price going forward as the price gap narrows?

Kent Guichard

Chief Executive Officer

Two things and two questions there. On the first one in terms of the potential for a halo effect, I think it’s two early to tell. I mean it certainly our belief is that there will be some, that people, designers that traditionally would not have designed with us, had an opportunity to experience our quality and services levels as well as the value of that the product itself. I think its going to take while for the shares to settle down to see how much of the share gain regard during the third quarter was driven by their focus promotion versus how much is what I call core share, which is sustainable over a longer period of time. Our belief is that we will get some core share gain, but how much of that and if it’s there and how much of its there, I think we probably won’t get a read for another quarter or two as things kind of settle back down from a promotional perspective. In terms of your second question of pricing movement, in the way that the main comparative lineup is in the big box retailers and other remodeling distribution channels, but I assume your question is focused mostly on the big box retailers, is that all of the major manufactures covers a broad range of price points and so we have the top end of our prices points overlap some of the lower end ranges of our competitors and wise versus, some of the lower end ranges over lap into some of our sales, into some of our traditional prices points. So, all the manufactures have a pretty broad range. In my view, what we try to do in working with the designers in the store is get the right product at the right price point to satisfy the consumer, to work with the consumer and satisfy the consumer. So, we all try and do that no matter what condition we’re in or where the market is. So from that perspective it’s not maybe like some other businesses where the pricing changes on a week-in and week-out basis at the retail level, that you go in and you do that; it’s a little bit different on a bid basis on the new construction side. So, I think that what happens in this environment, as we all have a pretty broad product line and then you get down to working with the designer to satisfy the consumer.

Mark - Cleveland Research

Management

In terms of the promotion, I think you said it ended in January. Should we expect some of that revenue benefit to flow into the current quarter as well, just given the lead times in the business?

Kent

Management

Yes, we built a little bit of a backlog that we shipped in part of February. So February would normally be a pretty difficult month from a production standpoint, because your spring doesn’t really start until to the end of the month, your spring selling season. So, we were able to carry a little bit more backlog into February than we maybe normally would have. Again, we’ll see how that rolls through the quarter, because one could make an argument that when the promotional activity closed out at the end of the first week of January, they also pulled a lot of business forward. So, there maybe either a delayed start for the spring selling season or the first part of the spring selling season, the volumes maybe reduced just because as an industry we pulled a lot of business forward. So, again we’ll see how it balances out for the whole 90 days, but certainly for the first couple of weeks of February, we have a little bit of backlog we were able to work through.

Guichard

Management

Yes, we built a little bit of a backlog that we shipped in part of February. So February would normally be a pretty difficult month from a production standpoint, because your spring doesn’t really start until to the end of the month, your spring selling season. So, we were able to carry a little bit more backlog into February than we maybe normally would have. Again, we’ll see how that rolls through the quarter, because one could make an argument that when the promotional activity closed out at the end of the first week of January, they also pulled a lot of business forward. So, there maybe either a delayed start for the spring selling season or the first part of the spring selling season, the volumes maybe reduced just because as an industry we pulled a lot of business forward. So, again we’ll see how it balances out for the whole 90 days, but certainly for the first couple of weeks of February, we have a little bit of backlog we were able to work through.

Mark - Cleveland Research

Management

In terms of capacity utilization, can you walk us through where you stand and maybe where you expect to be once the promotional benefit ends?

Kent

Management

That’s a $64 question, right. I’ll give you two; one is the historical number we’ve given, which is from a hard capacity standpoint in terms of facilities in those types of things. We’re stilling running around 50% utilization. From a curing perspective, we accrued at the volumes we’ve been running and we’ just have to see. If we have a halfway decent spring selling season, we’ll be able to maintain that, if we don’t then we’ll have to curing down consistent with the demands in the marketplace.

Guichard

Management

That’s a $64 question, right. I’ll give you two; one is the historical number we’ve given, which is from a hard capacity standpoint in terms of facilities in those types of things. We’re stilling running around 50% utilization. From a curing perspective, we accrued at the volumes we’ve been running and we’ just have to see. If we have a halfway decent spring selling season, we’ll be able to maintain that, if we don’t then we’ll have to curing down consistent with the demands in the marketplace.

Mark - Cleveland Research

Management

Any updated thoughts on closing down any capacity at this point?

Kent

Management

No.

Guichard

Management

No.

Mark - Cleveland Research

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Peter Lisnic with Robert W. Baird.

Peter Lisnic - Robert W. Baird

Management

Good morning everyone. John I was just wondering if you could maybe help us bridge the gross margin. You gave a little bit of detail, but I’m just wondering if you could take us or maybe close that 100 basis point gap from the 14/3 adjusted for the third quarter last year to the 15/5 this year? Maybe tell us what fuel and labor efficiencies are?

John Wolk

Management

I won’t give you a precise quantification of that Pete, but fuel definitely did help versus last year’s third quarter. I’d say that certainly fuel is the biggest part of the remainder of the 1% improvement.

Peter Lisnic - Robert W. Baird

Management

Okay, that’s helpful and then when you kind of look at some of these efficiencies are getting on the labor front, I would assume if that is sort of a permanent or structural change that you’ve made and wondering if and when things do turn up, are you thinking that the business is being a higher or more profitable business than it used to be during the last cycle?

John Wolk

Management

Well, I think that you have to keep in mind that we only took out one small plant last year, about a year ago or made the decision to do that and then took it out really in the fourth quarter of last year. So, there weren’t dramatic headcount reductions that stemmed from that particular action. So, I wouldn’t say that at this point we made any kind of permanent difference in the structure of headcount or the relationship of labor cost or revenue at this point in time.

Peter Lisnic - Robert W. Baird

Management

Okay, alright and then I know you just answer this, but I want to ask it may be in a different way. In terms of capacity, what you are hearing I guess out of the big competitors at least is that they are taking pretty drastic actions I think in terms of closing down facilities and restructuring their manufacturing operations. Is that going to at some point with the market continuing to be soft, is that going to force your hand to maybe think about the foot print or just the entire manufacturing operation?

Kent

Management

I am not sure, I don’t follow your logic in your mind how that would force our hand to do anything. The two things I would say or I’ll kind of make a comment specific to us and maybe then put something else out there for everybody to kind of chew on for a while is that, we’re going to run our business based on the customers we have and our strategy and what we see coming and when we make decisions about capacity, whether its hard capacity or whether its practical capacity through curing, we don’t really do those quite frankly in light of the world out there. Again in my phrase there’s so many moving parts out there that if you try to decide what you’re going to do based on what you see or think you see other doing, you can get yourself into a lot of trouble. So, we run our business and we make our decisions within our context, within our criteria and within our structure. The point I’d probably bring up as it relates to capacity though is that one of the things that we are beginning to be concerned about, on a much broader scale is that in the entire building materials industry, we are dismantling infrastructure at what I considered to be an alarming rate and it’s not just plants, it’s not just some curing in facilities, it’s brain powers, it’s know-how, it’s capability of organizations, either because they’re disappearing or because they are downsizing so dramatically. If you believe as I do, that this is a cycle and that the demographics will drives us back to somewhere between on an average 1.5 million to 1.6 million new construction starts and a little bit over 6 million existing home sales, total real estate transactions 7.5 million to 8 million. We don’t have the capacity in my opinion to even come close to supporting that kind of market activity and one of the things that we’re working with our vendor partners pretty hard on at this point is, working with them in terms of plans to keep capacity available, because we could end up with some building materials shortages here if this thing comes back. If you get a 35% to 50% rebound in the first year back, which several prior year cycles would tell you, it take you three years to get back, but the first year is half of that. If that hits the industry six months or twelve months from now with what’s on the drawing boards to take out, we’re not going to have enough basic materials to meet demand and that is a concern that we’re starting to spend some time on.

Guichard

Management

I am not sure, I don’t follow your logic in your mind how that would force our hand to do anything. The two things I would say or I’ll kind of make a comment specific to us and maybe then put something else out there for everybody to kind of chew on for a while is that, we’re going to run our business based on the customers we have and our strategy and what we see coming and when we make decisions about capacity, whether its hard capacity or whether its practical capacity through curing, we don’t really do those quite frankly in light of the world out there. Again in my phrase there’s so many moving parts out there that if you try to decide what you’re going to do based on what you see or think you see other doing, you can get yourself into a lot of trouble. So, we run our business and we make our decisions within our context, within our criteria and within our structure. The point I’d probably bring up as it relates to capacity though is that one of the things that we are beginning to be concerned about, on a much broader scale is that in the entire building materials industry, we are dismantling infrastructure at what I considered to be an alarming rate and it’s not just plants, it’s not just some curing in facilities, it’s brain powers, it’s know-how, it’s capability of organizations, either because they’re disappearing or because they are downsizing so dramatically. If you believe as I do, that this is a cycle and that the demographics will drives us back to somewhere between on an average 1.5 million to 1.6 million new construction starts and a little bit over 6 million existing home sales, total real estate transactions 7.5 million to 8 million. We don’t have the capacity in my opinion to even come close to supporting that kind of market activity and one of the things that we’re working with our vendor partners pretty hard on at this point is, working with them in terms of plans to keep capacity available, because we could end up with some building materials shortages here if this thing comes back. If you get a 35% to 50% rebound in the first year back, which several prior year cycles would tell you, it take you three years to get back, but the first year is half of that. If that hits the industry six months or twelve months from now with what’s on the drawing boards to take out, we’re not going to have enough basic materials to meet demand and that is a concern that we’re starting to spend some time on.

Peter Lisnic - Robert W. Baird

Management

Is there any way that you could distinguish the shortages and sort of the brain slide if you will between cabinets and other building materials?

Jon Wolk

Management

I haven’t gotten that specific on it, but I mean I think that I would say in general, it’s in my opinion happing across the entire spectrum of building materials and you’re gong to have trouble building a house. There is the potential that you could have trouble building a house. Now on the remodel side, its not quite as dramatic, because you don’t need framers and you don’t need quite as much material, but these people, a lot of the people have gone and they’re finding something else to do and even if you can get them back, it’s going to take while to get them back.

Peter Lisnic - Robert W. Baird

Management

Okay, thanks on that one and last question just quickly, any margin impact from the promotional activity plus or minus outside of that the volume incremental?

Kent Guichard

Chief Executive Officer

No Pete, we didn’t fund the large promotions that went on.

Peter Lisnic - Robert W. Baird

Management

Alright, thank you.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) We’ll go next to Sam Darkatsh with Raymond James.

TJ McCondle - Raymond James

Management

Thanks guys. This is actually TJ McCondle [Ph] filling in for Sam this morning. I had a question for you on the receivables. It looks like you had a pretty significant year-over-year increase in that and essentially flat sales. Can you talk to that a little bit, about what your collections have been looking like and what your retailer partner have been sort of driving there?

Kent Guichard

Chief Executive Officer

Yes TJ, it’s a good question. They did go up both from year end and also from the year ago levels. Really, it was just the timing of the sales. Although sales were flat for the quarter, last year we had a very significant deceleration in December and January; this year that was not the case. If anything we were steady throughout the entire quarter, so just because of the timing of when the sales were made, particularly in the month of January, our receivables were up and our collections were steady. We’ve had no changes in payment terms with any of our significant customers.

TJ McCondle - Raymond James

Management

Okay, great. I appreciate that and back to some of the gross margin discussion. I know we talked about the year-over-year impacts of the lag severance and things like that, more on a sequential basis, we still saw a some nice expansion there, sales actually lower this quarter. Can you talk to whether or not we’re seeing any type of; I know we talked about raw materials inflating your rear, but any type of sequential deflation or anything you’re seeing there?

Kent Guichard

Chief Executive Officer

TJ the only thing sequentially that improved in terms of, inputs was fuel. I’ll go back to the comment I made though, in my opening remark, was a lot of that just depends on where you want to put the stake in the ground and so when you go quarter-to-quarter, you get kind of those discussions. When you take a longer perspective, which is one, two, three years or two to three years, we’re still seeing the inflationary impact from basic raw materials and that includes anything that’s petroleum based or has a high energy content into its manufacturer. We certainly for example on diesel you’ve seen a big pretty good drop from the peak, but the peak was only there for basically four weeks. They went up very quickly and came down very quickly. It didn’t go up and level out for a while, went up hit the top started to come back down. So, if you pick that point as your comparison you’re gong to get a big decrease. If you pick six or nine months before you had the big run up in fuel prices, you get a very, very different picture. So, as opposed to focusing on a particular quarter depending on what your comparison is, I think the important point is that the step balances around, but there is inflationary pressure on our inputs.

TJ McCondle - Raymond James

Management

Finally here I know we discussed the promotions at length. Can you give any color as to specifically what those promotions were? I know we said they were targeted at the lower price point, was it just individual promotions on your goods specifically or can you describe what they were?

Kent Guichard

Chief Executive Officer

Well, it’ll take a long time to get in the details, because the promotional activity and special order kitchens can get pretty complicated. There can be multiple promotions running and overlapping at various times. Basically what happened during the period was, our customers ran promotions across all their categories, all price points, all vendors, but they kind of reallocated the waiting of those promotions to target customers that were actually seriously in the shopping mode, in the buying mode, not just tire-kickers and the truth, to see if there was a way to in essence increase their capture rate from either just people walking through and grabbing them for sure or all the way to designs to actually closing the quote on the design. So they were doing some things to move those dollars around and again it’s gets pretty complicated, but the long end short of it is I kind of used my analogy was, in addition to having in the wind in our back, from just being the value price point, particularly in this economic environment, they reweighed their promotional activity, to try and target customers who are shopping, but who are very budget conscious and that had a tendency to give us a little bit stronger wind in our back.

TJ McCondle - Raymond James

Management

Okay, great guys. I appreciate you taking my questions and great job on the quarter.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Keith Johnson with Morgan, Keegan.

Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan

Management

Good morning. Just I guess two quick question, could you put a dollar amount on the promotion or the effect of the promotions for guys in the fiscal third quarter?

Jon Wolk

Management

We haven’t really put pen to paper to try to estimate that, and quite frankly we wouldn’t be sure anyway, because there is no way of really knowing how much we would have had, had they not promoted.

Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan

Management

Just because of the potential share gain and those types of things that have been helping you over time?

Jon Wolk

Management

Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan

Management

Typically you guys see I guess, I know you mentioned early it’s hard to call anything seasonal in this type of environment, but you do see kind of a bounce coming into your fourth fiscal quarter as the contraction markets open up and that sort of thing?

Kent

Management

Well yes, historically on the new construction side actually, there is historically and again it doesn’t work now, but historically you kind of get a year end, a calendar year end and a spring; and the calendar year end is the builder is trying to completing and close all the homes before their fiscal year end. So, you get a big push in November and December. Historically, from them trying to close out homes and then you get another kind of up tick when you get into the spring and they do those types of things. It’s diminished over the years with new building techniques that allow you to pour concrete in colder temperatures in the north and some of those types of things, but generally that’s it. On the re-model side, you basically get a spring and a fall season. The spring season will peak in March, go into April, and really tail off in May, you don’t get much during the summer. It will pick back up again in mid September and really run October through Thanksgiving.

Guichard

Management

Well yes, historically on the new construction side actually, there is historically and again it doesn’t work now, but historically you kind of get a year end, a calendar year end and a spring; and the calendar year end is the builder is trying to completing and close all the homes before their fiscal year end. So, you get a big push in November and December. Historically, from them trying to close out homes and then you get another kind of up tick when you get into the spring and they do those types of things. It’s diminished over the years with new building techniques that allow you to pour concrete in colder temperatures in the north and some of those types of things, but generally that’s it. On the re-model side, you basically get a spring and a fall season. The spring season will peak in March, go into April, and really tail off in May, you don’t get much during the summer. It will pick back up again in mid September and really run October through Thanksgiving.

Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan

Management

So, as we kind of look at going into this April quarter, given the underlying environment, would promotions have been strong enough for you guys. I know you suggested it could have pulled demand into the third quarter from the fourth, but it could have been strong enough to essentially put us into the flat sequential revenue?

Jon Wolk

Management

For the fourth quarter?

Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan

Management

That’s right.

Jon Wolk

Management

It remains to be seen. I mean sure it’s possible, but on the other hand, we don’t have very much visibility in this business to what the incoming order rates are going to be over the next couple of months and that’s really going to dictate how we end up.

Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan

Management

Okay. I appreciate the question.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll got next to Robert Kelly with Sidoti. Robert Kelly – Sidoti: Good morning. Sort of question on I guess the overall cabinet market. Do you guys get independent data or data from your customers indicating what the market was doing during the quarter just ended? I know you saw a growth on the remodel side, but what do the retailers say the market was doing or independent data, what does that say?

Kent

Management

It’s Kent. On the new construction side we get a very good data or we get real accurate data and the primary reason is that you got to file for starts and so there’s a place that go to which is hard public data, in each region that issues or each office that issues where you can actually get that start data. You can also correlate that with closing data and those types of things that you can get from some real estate resources. So on the new construction side; generally speaking we have a lot of hard data that we can zero in pretty quickly on activity. The remodel side is a bit more problematic and that is because it’s a lot more fragmented. You have a lot of smaller dealers out there, you’ve got a lot of distributors that book, that may serve both new construction and remodel them in and of course you got the big box retailers.

Guichard

Management

It’s Kent. On the new construction side we get a very good data or we get real accurate data and the primary reason is that you got to file for starts and so there’s a place that go to which is hard public data, in each region that issues or each office that issues where you can actually get that start data. You can also correlate that with closing data and those types of things that you can get from some real estate resources. So on the new construction side; generally speaking we have a lot of hard data that we can zero in pretty quickly on activity. The remodel side is a bit more problematic and that is because it’s a lot more fragmented. You have a lot of smaller dealers out there, you’ve got a lot of distributors that book, that may serve both new construction and remodel them in and of course you got the big box retailers. As I said in my opening comments, we believe that the special order kitchen cabinet market in the three months that were covered by our third quarter that that market contracted in its totality. By how much; I mean you got to put a range around it, but we believe that remodel market contracted during that period. Robert Kelly – Sidoti: I mean excess of double digits, closer to 20%, just like a ballpark?

Kent

Management

Well, yes.

Guichard

Management

Well, yes.

Jon Wolk

Management

Double digits are a safe bed, but beyond that it’s hard to say. Robert Kelly – Sidoti: Fair enough. Price mix trend versus volume for the last couple of quarters, is that helping you or hurting you on the revenue line?

Jon Wolk

Management

No, really it’s been volume driven Bob, because there wasn’t much pricing action in there and we have had a little bit improvement in mix. Robert Kelly – Sidoti: Okay, great and then as far as your cash position and the balance sheet. Any chance you do anything with the dividend or increase the payout to shareholders?

Jon Wolk

Management

Well first of course you have to defer to our Board and so we can’t speak definitively on that, but this environment it’s hard to imagine really a dividend increase. I think that from a cash and balance sheet management prospective we’re keeping our powder dry, we’re managing the company conservatively and improving our balance sheet everyday, generating cash and looking to just have an iron safe balance sheet no matter what comes at us. Robert Kelly – Sidoti: All right, thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

And there appear to be no further questions. At this time I’d like to turn the conference back to over to Eanes for any additional or closing comments.

Glenn Eanes

Management

I’d like to thank everybody for taking time out to participate in this conference call, but since there are no additional questions, this concludes our call. Speaking on behalf of the management of American Woodmark, we appreciate your continuing support. Thank you. Have a good say.

Operator

Operator

Again, that does conclude today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.