Eric McAfee
Analyst · UBS. Your line is life
Thank you, Todd. Before we provide details, let me summarize some key items. Number one, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard update passed last Friday, setting 20 years of increasing support for low carbon fuels in transportation in California. In anticipation of the new mandates, the price of LCFS credits has increased from $44 to $74 in the past few months, and the late 2025 LCFS credits are already at $82. Second, to simplify calculations, renewable natural gas generates about 40% of the price of LCFS credits per MMBtu. So, a $200 LCFS price equals about $80 per MMBtu of revenues to Aemetis when our pathways are in place. Exiting this year, our renewable natural gas business is scheduled to be producing more than 500,000 MMBtus per year and to increase to a run rate of about 1 million MMBtus by the end of 2025, as we construct additional dairy digesters. A $100 average LCFS price next year would generate $20 million of revenues from the sale of renewable natural gas, a significant increase from only about $3 million from the sale of LCFS credits this year. In 2026, at an average LCFS price of $150, Aemetis Biogas would generate $60 million of revenues from the sale of 1 million MMBtus of RNG. Third, in addition to LCFS revenues, the sale of RNG generates about $35 per MMBtu of D3 renewable identification numbers and about $5 per MMBtu from the sale of the gas, as well as up to $99 per MMBtu from the 45Z production tax credit. However, revenues from the sale of RNG without the 45Z production tax credit are between $70 and $120 per MMBtu, depending on the price of the LCFS credits. Fourth, the Inflation Reduction Act Section 45Z production tax credit begins on January 1, 2025 according to federal law. The realization of this tax credit is dependent on the IRS releasing the calculation of the renewable natural gas 45Z production tax credit, and we have yet to see a clear indication that the guidance will be issued by the current administration prior to January 20, 2025. Fifth, we are finalizing the sale of investment tax credits from the Aemetis Biogas projects with expected net cash proceeds of about $11.5 million this month. We expect to sell to the same buyer an additional $10 million of tax credits in Q1 2025. Sixth, the Aemetis Biogas business will be operating 16 dairies and 12 digesters at the end of next month with approximately 550,000 MMBtus per year of renewable natural gas production run rate at a negative 350 carbon intensity. We plan to grow to 26 dairies operating or in construction by the end of 2025, generating 1 million MMBtus in year 2026. Our LCFS pathways are now in the second round of requests for information. Our application is expected to be deemed complete by CARB this quarter, which begins the accrual of the higher level of LCFS credits. As a result, we expect to show significantly increased LCFS credit revenues in Q2 2025, generated by Q4 2024 shipments and a much higher LCFS credit price, which is a delay of 1 quarter from our previous expectations. Though we submitted our LCFS pathway application 18 months ago, we’re still at least 4 months away from the approval of our provisional pathway that allows us to generate LCFS revenues above the negative 150 default pathway. We expect to begin to show the increased revenues and cash receipts from LCFS pathway approval in Q2 2025. Seventh, the USDA has $75 million of Aemetis Biogas loan applications in process, and we expect a closing of $25 million this quarter and commitment letters for an additional $50 million in Q1 2025 under the Renewable Energy for America Program. Last, the $200 million of low-cost EB-5 funding is making progress, but the immigration policies of the current administration has been unfavorable for EB-5 investors. We expect that the change of administration will support our financing and potentially enable an expansion of the funding. As we have discussed on prior earnings calls, Aemetis benefits from public policy that supports renewable fuels. This past Friday, the California Air Resources Board approved an updated low carbon fuel standard that establishes 20 years of mandates for the increased use of low carbon energy in transportation. Aemetis has focused our renewable fuels project development on California assets and production in order to be in the position that we now have achieved. Aemetis was listed by a leading stock analyst as the number one stock in the world that would benefit from the adoption of the updated low carbon fuel standard. The price of LCFS credits has increased, as we said before, from $44 to $74 in the past few months, reflecting the shortage of credits that are designed into the updated LCFS mandates. The 9% decrease in carbon intensity for fuels in year 2025 and the ongoing automatic adjustment mechanism are designed by CARB to provide confidence in the higher price of LCFS credits in order to attract debt and equity investments into low emission transportation. The second milestone is the issuance of guidance by the IRS showing the calculation of the Inflation Reduction Act Section 45Z production tax credit that by law begins in January 2025. The current administration is not committed to releasing the 45Z production tax credit guidance before January 20, 2025. So, we may be delayed for an unknown amount of time before the 45Z revenue begins. The calculation of production tax credits primarily benefits our dairy biogas business. So we are pursuing multiple avenues to communicate to the IRS and political leaders the critical role of the PTC in the growth of negative carbon intensity renewable fuels such as renewable natural gas. Third, the approval of the 15% ethanol blend by the federal EPA has been scheduled for mid-2025 as a part of a legal settlement with 8 Midwestern states. But California Governor, Newsom, issued a letter to CARB 2 weeks ago instructing that the regulatory work should be completed in order to be able to approve E15 in California as soon as possible. A 15% ethanol blend in California would decrease gasoline prices by an estimated $0.20 a gallon and save about $2.7 billion per year, according to a UC Berkeley and Naval Academy study. E15 approval would increase the market for ethanol by more than 600 million gallons per year in California, and a 15% blend nationwide would enable the ethanol industry to grow revenues by 50% to more than 20 billion gallons per year. Combined, these three regulatory events significantly increase the value of our products and are expected to generate more than $50 million per year of increased positive cash flow, starting in January 2025, if the 45Z production tax credit goes into effect, as stated in the Inflation Reduction Act. Now, let’s quickly review each of our businesses. In the India biofuels business, we completed deliveries of $112 million during the 1-year period ending September 2024, driven by biodiesel sales to the three government-owned oil marketing companies, known as OMCs, under a cost-plus contract structure. We completed this contract with excellent production and delivery performance. The positive impact of cost-plus pricing that is now being used by the OMCs to purchase biodiesel is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. The India business has positive EBITDA and funds its own operations and capacity growth. Last month, we bid on the current 1-year contract and expect to announce an allocation from the OMCs within the next few weeks. This July, our new Managing Director for the India business joined the company after serving as the CEO of the GE joint venture in India to build renewable power plants. We have identified an excellent candidate for Chief Financial Officer, who has recent IPO experience. And we are expanding our Hyderabad office to support multiple plant sites and new products. We expect to have evaluation for the planned IPO after the offering has been marketed to investors. Now, Andy Foster, President of Aemetis Advanced Fuels, will review our North American businesses.