John Thero
Analyst · Ami Fadia with SVB Leerink. Please proceed with your question
Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. During this call, we’ll cover many topics including, Q2 2020 operating and financial results, past and potential future impact of COVID-19 on our revenue growth and operations, commercial priorities in the United States including our recently launched promotion of VASCEPA via television commercials and related forms of communication, commercialization plans for VASCEPA in Europe, upcoming milestones including presentation of results of the VASCEPA clinical trial in China and results of the EVAPORATE study, and patent litigation status in the United States. We will start with this last topic first, as patent litigation is typically the first topic of enquiry from investors. As a reminder, this patent litigation is in the United States only and pertains to the rights to market and sell VASCEPA for its first FDA approved indication. The indication for lowering triglyceride levels in patients with very high triglyceride levels defined by FDA approved label and by medical guidelines, as triglyceride levels greater than or equal to 500 milligrams per deciliter. In Canada for example, we and our commercial partner did not seek that triglyceride lowering indication for VASCEPA. Similarly in Europe, we are not seeking that triglyceride lowering indication. Rather, our priority in such international labeling has been on cardiovascular risk reduction based up on the landmark results of the REDUCE-IT cardiovascular outcome study. Accordingly, the U.S. litigation does not directly impact a significant VASCEPA potential in those geographies, due both to new regulatory exclusivity and different patent protection. Or in most other areas of the world where we are pursuing or we may in the future pursue a cardiovascular risk reduction indication for VASCEPA. Our ongoing appeal to the Federal Circuit in U.S. patent litigation is in response to the decision in March of this year from the Federal District Court in Nevada, which ruled that the discoveries underlying VASCEPA’s patents that protected our initial FDA approved indication for VASCEPA were obvious. Thus, in effect, the court ruled that the patents upon which Amarin has relied should not have been granted by the U.S. patent office. This decision was unexpected by everyone, including we understand the generic companies involved in the litigation. As discussed in the past, we believe that the District Court decision is flawed. Having lived and worked through the early development of VASCEPA prior to the results of the MARINE and ANCHOR clinical studies, it is clear to me that the unique effects of VASCEPA were not obvious at that time to others outside of Amarin and that it was Amarin’s scientific insights developed over years of experience, which led to the successful development of VASCEPA. It was a development path that other scientists and other drug developers had not pursued. Nonetheless, a decade later, the District Court Judge in trying to go back in time, interpreted matters differently. Unfortunately, the judicial process is such that it doesn’t matter that I, you or others conclude that the District Court’s decision was wrong. It also doesn’t seem to matter that this District Court ruling if allowed to stand is likely to leave many patients unnecessarily at high risk for major adverse cardiovascular events, and potentially at unnecessary risk for other medical risks, which VASCEPA may be able to address in which we are in various stages of investigation. The potential benefits of which are less likely to be realized if VASCEPA becomes generic. Unfortunately for patient care, it is not enough to have extraordinary clinical results in FDA drug approval. Healthcare professionals and patients need product education. They could also benefit from continued investment in further research and development to continue to better understand the exceptional VASCEPA results achieved in the REDUCE-IT study, and how VASCEPA might help other patient populations. This important work for VASCEPA is only funded by Amarin’s promotion of VASCEPA as a branded product. Usually drugs become generic after they have been well established and are well known. But VASCEPA is not yet at that stage, and thus there is a major and unnecessary risk to patients and to society, that they could become deprived of VASCEPA-related education and scientific advancement, with resulting VASCEPA usage growth and patient benefits stymied by the potential premature introduction of generics. Furthermore, given the relatively high manufacturing costs and the affordable pricing Amarin has used for VASCEPA, if VASCEPA becomes a generic drug in the United States, we anticipate that little if any money is likely to be saved by patients or by insurance companies from the availability of a generic version of VASCEPA. There are many issues with the District Court’s decision that we would like to argue and have corrected by the court system. However, in our appeal to the Federal Circuit, we are advised by experienced and historically successful legal counsel that is best not to attempt to re-litigate all the matters that were previously argued in District Court. Instead of trying to correct everything, which we believe was wrongly interpreted or not understood by the District Court, we have prioritized matters that we believe are the most impactful to the 3-judge Federal Circuit panel that will be deciding our appeal. All written legal briefs to the Federal Circuit have been submitted to the court. This includes briefs on the behalf of both Amarin and the generic companies. Copies of these briefs are available through the court’s PACER website, and are also available within the Frequently Asked Questions section of Amarin’s corporate website. In addition to and separate from the required court briefs from the litigants, 2 third-parties submitted briefs to the court, expressing their views, both of which support Amarin’s petition, albeit with different considerations. One of these briefs came from BIO, a well-regarded biopharmaceutical Trade Association, which expressed the importance of the clear and consistent application of patent law and the value to society of being able to rely on patents to support innovation. The other brief was submitted by Aimed Alliance, a not-for-profit health policy organization that works to protect and enhance the rights of healthcare consumers and providers. Their brief emphasized that VASCEPA remaining branded would lead to increased education regarding VASCEPA, and improved knowledge among patients, caregivers, and healthcare providers about VASCEPA’s clinical trial results in its newly discovered benefits. The next significant step in our Federal Circuit appeal is expected to be the oral hearing. The oral hearing is scheduled for September 2 at 10:00 AM Eastern Time. Additional information regarding the logistics for this hearing, such as listening instructions are provided in the FAQ section of Amarin’s website. Based upon the history of the Federal Circuit, we anticipate their decision to be made public late this year or early in 2021. It is possible that the decision could occur surely after oral argument or take longer than anticipated. When decided the court’s practice is to post the decision through the court’s PACER system. Amarin will learn of the court decision at the same time as the public is made aware of the decision. The Federal Circuit at our request will quickly to schedule the oral hearing and hopefully that quick pace continues to reaching a decision on this important appeal. I won’t try here to fully articulate the legal arguments in Amarin’s appeal briefs. The lawyers who drafted them use arguments that should be clear to everyone who reads them. These briefs emphasize where we believe to be errors in the district court decision regarding application of the law and errors regarding certain facts, which impacted the district court’s decision. Some investors have asked whether settlement with the generic companies is likely before the Federal Circuit decision. While anything is possible at this stage such a settlement is unlikely. As a reminder, a settlement would only be useful to Amarin, if it’s settled with both of the 2 active and the litigants on mutually acceptable terms and also gets the district court’s decision vacated. If the district court’s decision is not vacated, our settling with the 2 generic companies that are litigants in this matter won’t stop other generic companies from seeking to fill the void. And it would then be more difficult to stop them. If the current district court decision is reversed is part of the current appeal. The situation is then more clearly in Amarin’s favor. For generic companies in general, the cost of anti-litigation is low relative to the potential benefit. That is – it is certainly much lower than the quest of developing a new drug. This relatively low cost combined with high potential reward, creates a scenario whereby some generic companies are willing to take the risk and seek near-term generic product opportunities even if the magnitude of such opportunities could be larger if they elected to wait. Whereas drug development is by necessity, typically a long-term endeavor, for various generic companies, the focus appears to be comparatively shorter-term. Currently, the ANDA filers for generic versions of VASCEPA, separate from preparing for the all of hearings in the Federal Circuit appeal or likely considering how much money they want to spend build supply capacity for VASCEPA. How long will take to build such supply capacity, whether they should build such capacity themselves from scratch or try to retrofit existing facilities. How to they gain the manufacturing know-how required for success in such challenging manufacturing and how much risk they’re willing to take. Amarin respects that getting an ANDA approved by the FDA is not trivial. However, keep in mind that there is no minimum supply requirement, it required for getting an ANDA approval. How much supply capacity is currently available and qualified for use by the generic companies is not directly known by Amarin. Based upon information available to us and based upon our own experience, we believe that existing capacity for qualified supply of generic VASCEPA is relatively small compared to the overall market opportunity. That doesn’t mean that such generic capacity is trivial. It’s conceivable that generic companies in the near-term can potentially find supply capacity to support tens of millions of dollars in revenue. However, while such level might be important to the generic companies, and Amarin clearly doesn’t want to give it up such level would only be a small portion of Amarin’s total revenue, and even a smaller portion of VASCEPA’s potential. Based upon information available to us today, if generics launch in the United States, it is our expectation that they would be launching with limited supply. We do not have direct visibility into this number, but that is our current understanding. We remind you that manufacturing of VASCEPA is not easy. The unique active ingredient in VASCEPA is fragile. For Amarin, it took many years and many millions of dollars to build our reliable supply chain for VASCEPA. Early on our cost of goods sold for VASCEPA capsules was much higher, but we lowered that costs through experience and investment and volume. Along the way, we worked with many third-party suppliers, some of which have succeeded in producing VASCEPA, and remain our suppliers and other companies which fail to produce VASCEPA consistently beyond the pilot stage. The manufacturing process involves multiple steps, all of which need to be completed efficiently and cost effectively. Moreover, quality, stability and consistency of the end product is paramount. The active ingredient of VASCEPA, if not stable and pure, is unlikely to have the same clinical effect, as was demonstrated by the high-quality product sold by Amarin. The generic companies, if they intend to become large suppliers of VASCEPA will have to demonstrate that they too can produce VASCEPA consistently with high quality and cost effectively at commercial scale. As we know, creating that capacity including construction, testing and qualification is expensive and time consuming. They may get there, but we don’t expect it to be easy or inexpensive for them. For these reasons, the return on their investment from building manufacturing capacity for VASCEPA is likely to be well below that of other generic drugs, where they can leverage existing infrastructure and expertise. In the early stages of producing VASCEPA, Amarin suppliers had significant challenges which they had to overcome. For Amarin, suppliers were interested in long-term collaborations for a growing product. This long-term growth opportunity motivated them to work with us and overcome these challenges. It also motivated them to make large capital investments to be rewarded with potential long-term global growth of VASCEPA with demand created by Amarin. Alternative potential future suppliers are unlikely to look at generic companies in the same light. Various suppliers have articulated to Amarin that they worry that the intention span of generic companies to individual products can be relatively short lived, making generic companies less dependable in making capital investment by the suppliers in support of generic companies more difficult to justify. At this time, no generic version of VASCEPA has launched and no pricing has yet been publicly listed for a generic version of VASCEPA. Such public posting or product price is a step required prior to the launch of any product, whether branded or generic. While it is possible that a generic version of VASCEPA could be launched at any time, currently, we do not anticipate a launch of a generic version of VASCEPA until after the Federal Circuit appeal decision, and then only if the generic companies win the appeal, and then only to the extent that the generic companies have qualified supply capacity. If they launch before the Federal Circuit decision, they would be doing so at risk of patent infringement damages owed to Amarin, which could be quite expensive to the generic companies, if Amarin prevails on appeal. The Federal Circuit is likely to reach a decision in one of three categories. First, the court could rule in Amarin’s favor. Not surprisingly, we clearly think that this decision is the best and most appropriate decision. However, while we believe that we have good legal arguments in that our patents should be upheld, and that we have a reasonable shot at winning, there is no way for us to guarantee that the Federal Circuit will decide in Amarin’s favor. Secondly, the Federal Circuit could rule in favor of the generic companies and confirm the district court decision. Such a decision would be disappointing on many levels. However, we’ve recognized that such a decision is possible, as overturning a lower court ruling has not been easy in the industry historically. Or thirdly, the Federal Circuit could remand the matter back to the district court for reconsideration by the district court based on guidance from the Federal Circuit regarding how to properly apply the law and/or how to consider certain facts. We cannot predict which of these 3 decisions will be reached by the Federal Circuit. We believe that we have strong legal arguments and a smart and experienced legal team that will argue for us in the oral hearing. However, as we saw on the district court decision, strong arguments and a strong team do not guarantee success. If we lose at the Federal Circuit, and generic VASCEPA becomes available, we will assess at that time, the degree to which we should continue to promote VASCEPA in the United States. In such a scenario, we envision multiple potential pathways to further value creation from VASCEPA in the United States and internationally. Again, based upon information available to us today, if generics launched in the United States, it is our expectation that they would be launching with limited supply, while we could of course, counter their generic launch with our own authorized generic and leverage the manufacturing cost efficiencies, which we have developed over multiple years. We believe that is more likely that a significant portion of the market will remain branded for a considerable period of time. As a reminder, VASCEPA is not a high price drug, particularly if generic companies have limited supply capacity, it would be unusual and somewhat nonsensical for them to sell limited supply at a low price. Because of our belief that branded VASCEPA will remain important in the United States and that VASCEPA is early in its launch in the United States and has broad potential globally. For the foreseeable future, Amarin intends to continue to purchase VASCEPA supply at levels previously described, with some modest adjustment for the hopefully short-lived unfavorable market growth impact of COVID-19. Similarly, as previously discussed, because a generic version of VASCEPA is unlikely to launch soon, and because generic companies are likely to have limited supply capacity for VASCEPA, even if they do win the Federal Circuit, commencing this quarter as previously guided, Amarin is increasing promotion levels of VASCEPA in the United States. If we lose in the Federal Circuit appeal, we will assess then whether we should further expand, contract or maintain such levels of VASCEPA promotion in the United States. As our Chief Commercial Officer, Aaron Berg will discuss further the market need and opportunity for VASCEPA in the United States remains high and currently most doctors and patients are unfamiliar with VASCEPA. VASCEPA has been approved for cardiovascular risk reduction only since December. In addition, many people think that they understand VASCEPA have only superficial knowledge of this unique drug. We believe that we can help many patients and grow considerably through increased promotion and execution. Our rate of growth in the near-term is heavily impacted by COVID-19. Accordingly, I will now pivot our discussion from the Federal Circuit appeal to discussion of Amarin’s operations in this challenging and unprecedented COVID environment. As you are likely aware, some companies have expressed concerns about declining revenues due to the impact of COVID-19. Amarin is pleased that its net total revenue in Q2 2020 of $135.3 million, increased 34% over Q2 2019. Our Q2 revenue growth was heavily impacted by COVID-19. While under the circumstances, we think that our reported growth is good, such growth level is well below our goals and expectations, if there were no COVID-19 pandemic. For further discussion of our Q2 results in the United States, and our plans for reaccelerating growth, I turn the call over to Amarin’s Chief Commercial Officer, Aaron Berg.