Earnings Labs

Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 22, 2015

$475.35

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Third Quarter 2015 Earnings Call. My name is Ellen, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Alicia Charity. Ms. Charity, you may begin.

Alicia A. Charity - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to Ameriprise Financial's Third Quarter Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Jim Cracchiolo, Chairman and CEO; and Walter Berman, Chief Financial Officer. Following their remarks, we will be happy to take your questions. During the call, you will hear references to various non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide insight into the company's operations. Reconciliation of the non-GAAP numbers to the respective GAAP numbers can be found in today's materials that are available on our website. Some statements that we make on this call may be forward-looking, reflecting management's expectations about future events and operating plans and performance. These forward-looking statements speak only as of today's date and involve a number of risks and uncertainties. A sample list of factors and risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from forward-looking statements can be found in today's earnings release, our 2014 annual report to shareholders and our 2014 10-K report. We take no obligation to update publicly or revise these forward-looking statements. And with that, I will turn it over to Jim. James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Hello, everyone. Thanks for joining us for our Third Quarter Earnings Call. This morning, I will provide my perspective on the quarter and Walter will follow to discuss our financials. Ameriprise delivered solid results in what was, as you know, a tougher operating environment. Volatility spiked across global markets. Equity markets dropped in the quarter and currency translation was a headwind as well as the ongoing pressure of low interest rates. Across the firm, we focused on executing our consistent strategy and managing expenses as we invest in the business and navigate these conditions. Because of our ability to consistently generate strong free cash flow, we are able…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question is from Suneet Kamath with UBS Financial.

Suneet L. Kamath - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. I wanted to start with asset management. Jim, in your color around the flow picture, it seems to me to suggest that there's probably not going to be a turn in 4Q from some of the trends that affected you in 3Q. So my question is, do you think that 4Q flows could actually be worse than what we saw in third quarter? James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You know, I think as we look at the fourth quarter, I don't think from sort of the core businesses that that will be the case. On the other side, we know that there's a level of volatility in August and September, and we know that that may continue depending on markets. So we wanted to be clear, particularly in the institutional space, that's a little lumpy. The only area, as I highlighted in my opening remarks, was around one of the ex-parent activities and some of the low-fee as they take a bit of that portfolio back in-house. But we were planning on that and it is very low revenue to us. But that's the only thing that probably would be higher in the area that we highlighted in the ex-parent activities. But from the retail and institutional, I don't see that at this point in time but, again, I don't know how the rest of the year will go in volatility.

Suneet L. Kamath - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then Walter – sorry, go ahead. James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: No. That was it.

Suneet L. Kamath - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Sorry. So then, Walter, you had mentioned that performance fees were lower in the quarter. I think you said it was $10 million in the year ago and less than a million this quarter but that some of it was related to timing. Any sense, based on what you know today, of what that could look like next quarter? Walter S. Berman - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think we'll see – normally at fourth quarter is higher – but I think we will see that it will shift into the fourth quarter and basically on the year where it's within our targeted ranges.

Suneet L. Kamath - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

And what are those targeted ranges? Walter S. Berman - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Let me say it's tough to – but now fourth quarter is basically the $10 million that we talked about should be able to flow through. And so it will not be a variance factor except for that $10 million. And we anticipate that the normal performance fees that we have last year and this year will be in the ranges that won't be of course a variance of that like it did in this quarter.

Suneet L. Kamath - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then just lastly, on the capital, I fully acknowledge the move from $425 million buyback to $450 million, but given where the stock is, which I think is lower today than where you bought back stock in the third quarter, and the excess capital position remains at roughly $2.5 billion, why can't that quarterly run rate of buyback be in excess of $500 million on a quarterly basis? Walter S. Berman - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, it could, but as we demonstrated, as we feel the stock is undervalued, looking at our – that we have purchased 133% of our basically earnings. So we are evaluating that and looking at it, but certainly we are – we talk about our range as 90% to 100%, but we've demonstrated as we see the circumstances – the opportunity that we will buy up. I don't know if we'll go to $500 million, but certainly we have the capacity to do that and we will evaluate it. But I would imagine you should expect it would be higher than 90% if the current situation continues.

Suneet L. Kamath - UBS Securities LLC

Analyst

All right. I think – I think you should take the buyback up over $500 million, sell Auto & Home and your stock price will be higher than $111. Thanks. James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: All right. Okay. So thanks. I wrote that down.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Yaron Kinar with Deutsche Bank.

Yaron J. Kinar - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning, everybody. I wanted to start with a question on the advisor hires. It seems like the last two quarters you may be turned a corner there and we're certainly seeing some momentum. Can you maybe talk about what – has there been any shift in terms of your recruiting strategy, or the efforts or what's leading to the higher advisor recruiting levels? James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, first of all, we are bringing in what we think is a good core of new advisors to the firm, has very good productivity. And I think will fit in nicely based on the value proposition that we have and what their interests are to grow their productivity. And I think it's really over the course of the last year that we've been able to better get out there in the market and tell our story. That – it always takes time to sort of build that sort of pipeline in relationships. And I think people are more interested as they learn more about Ameriprise. And so, I think it's been a more consistent sort of ramp-up that we've had and the pipeline still looks very good. So we feel good about that. We're seeing good people. And it's all about what makes sense for them. And if it fits with what we're looking to accomplish, then it becomes a win-win.

Yaron J. Kinar - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. And then one follow-up, asset management clearly is coming under pressure, but that also means that valuations for such franchises have compressed as well. I'm just curious as you talk about capital deployment and your thoughts about the future, clearly you've been quite disciplined in terms of deals in the past. Do you see a pipeline today? Is it more robust? Do you see more opportunities or more serious opportunities from your perspective as you potentially look for deals in asset management? James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, I do believe that there is a bit more of a reconciliation of people evaluating what the alternatives are. I think there's also an understanding of what would be more of appropriate pricing as we go forward, and I do believe there'll be more opportunities that come about over the next number of quarters. So, if something interesting does fit the bill, and it strategically makes sense for us and it would be a good complementary, as I said, and Walter said, that we do have the cash on hand and the capital ability to do that and we would be very open to exploring those opportunities. But as you also said, we're also very disciplined and it has to be appropriate and make sense to get us a little further down the road than where we are.

Yaron J. Kinar - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

And could you remind us in that space what would be a good strategic fit from your perspective? James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: You know, we're continuing to look at building out some of our product set around alternatives and solutions and there may be some core product that would be complementary on the global platforms that we have. We're also looking to further expand some of our distribution capabilities – as we continue to build out our global activities. So again, I think it would – there are a number of things that would fit the bill or can increase our ability to grow even more formally in some of the channels that we're in. So I don't think it's just one thing that we're looking for per se, but there may be other – a broader set of opportunities that would work for us.

Yaron J. Kinar - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Erik Bass with Citigroup.

Erik J. Bass - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Thank you. Can you update us on your strategy to accelerate the growth in Colombia's retail channel? I mean, obviously it's a tough environment, but are you seeing progress in terms of getting on distribution platforms or establishing performance track records for new funds or maybe some other initiatives that give you confidence that flows can turn. And if and when we see a pickup in retail demand? James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. So I did mention that we are seeing some good traction. I think it's hard to see overall because you get some – we've had some additional redemptions in things like the Acorn Fund, et cetera, but overall our sales activity as we look at external benchmarks like Market Metrics, et cetera, shows that our market share and some of the major channels that we're doing business in some of the major intermediaries has actually improved. And so that does mean that we're able to expand a bit more. Now that takes time and it does take that you get more fully onto those platforms and the relationships form, but I think we now are making some good progress. We have plans. We just brought in some additional strong leadership in both the platform business over the last year. We brought in a strong leader overall for the intermediary channel. We just added a new leader to run our wholesaling activities. We have adjusted how we go to market, working between the product and the marketing groups and be able to tell our story a lot better. We're also putting out new advertising in the marketplace that we'll be launching shortly. We've been a little quiet there as we've worked on a new brand, the Colombia Threadneedle. And so, we feel pretty good that we can continue to gain traction. But again, it doesn't come overnight and it does get impacted and influenced based on what's happening in the volatility of the markets, but we have some really good products, like a strategic income fund that really suits what the client and the advisor are looking for right now. So we do believe that we can actually take more space and we have a good group of leadership and people focused on doing that. So that's really what I can say at this point.

Erik J. Bass - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. Thank you. That's helpful. And just quickly on PNC, do the emerging trends you're seeing in auto claims change your view at all as to how much rate is needed and should we anticipate that it will take longer than initially expected to get back to target margin levels? Walter S. Berman - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: This is Walter. Obviously, the collision and the impact on the – which was driven by certainly the drop in salvage voucher which was quite substantial and the frequency of people driving has and we will reflect that, but the other actions that we are taking are, I think are in place but we're going to have to supplement that.

Erik J. Bass - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Eric Berg with RBC. Please go ahead.

Eric N. Berg - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Thanks very much. First, in the asset management area, Jim, I'm hoping you can build on your comments, your prepared comments that there's been a change in strategy or outlook at U.S. Trust. This is – I believe this is your – the specifics behind your reference to the former parent company relationships. What has been the nature of the change and sort of how long will it last – how long will the effect last beyond the December quarter? James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: So what we were saying, first of all, we have a very good strong relationship with U.S. Trust, multiple dimensions, particularly strong in our fund family, et cetera. And that really hasn't changed. I think what I did mention is, you know, they go through their portfolio allocations, et cetera, they're dealing themselves and where their flow should go. They're a bit more into how they're looking at their overall lineup. But this is a really -- regarding some of their collected trust areas for some of their clients and fixed income. And they feel that some of those things they can manage in-house and they're looking to do some of that. Now again, it's a low-fee business. It's something that they think its suited for, at this stage, for them. And so you know, we probably will see a continued outflow from that area but nothing fundamental around the larger relationship has changed.

Eric N. Berg - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Next, with respect to the international institutional business where you've had clients outside the United States withdrawing funds for what you call geopolitical reasons. Can you build on what you mean by geopolitical reasons? Are we talking about the collapse in the price of oil and the effect that that has had on certain sovereign wealth funds or something else? James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think there are two things just in broad terms, okay? So as you've seen, there's a move away from some of the emerging market and Asians that we have some good portfolios in that some clients reallocate right now from. The second area is definitely around the price of commodities and other things that have occurred that may affect some of the investments from clients. You've read about that sort of more globally. But it's nothing particularly to Ameriprise. It's nothing against the performance. And in fact, people just need to raise some once in a while, some liquidity. So we think over time that will settle and actually things will come back into some of those areas because it wasn't a performance issue for where they're pulling some money right now. So – and we're probably affected less than some others out there.

Eric N. Berg - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Last question. I understand that there is no new fiduciary rule so you can't react to it. I'm not going to ask you to do that. But I would think that you would be doing preparation for the possibility, possibility, not the certainty, that the IRA rollover business could become a lot more difficult to get done in the future than it has in the past. Would that be a right conclusion to reach, or just what sort of preparation are you doing for possible changes? Thanks. James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think, Eric, as you do understand us here at Ameriprise, you know that we always do our planning and we always look at what may happen. And so, I do have my teams geared up. We look at everything that has come out from the department. We look at what – based on all the comments and what the department has already said that they need to look at, or possibly change. And we're already gearing up to see what that looks like and what it takes to make those adjustments and already have things underway. I would be very clear as I've actually even outlined in my opening remarks, whether they're millennials that people sometimes think they just want to work with a Robo or they just want to be self-administered. We clearly know that they want advice. We clearly know that the populations that we're talking to want to work with an advisor. And we have the best, one of the best advisor forces out there. Our satisfaction is very strong. They like what we have to offer. So, again, I know the department will come up with something. We know that we want to work in the best interest. There's no argument for us on that. We'll see as they make adjustments to their rule that it's more rational. You can work with people on a reasonable basis with reasonable compensation and try to satisfy their needs consistent with what FINRA and the SEC already look at and regulate. So – but yeah, we are planning for it and we are already looking at things of what may come about from whether it's disclosure or how you operate or a compensation. But again, I think Ameriprise and what we offer is really the key. And I think if people weren't satisfied today, you wouldn't have those strong personal relationships that we have. But they really want personal advisors and they really want the biggest thing they want help on is their retirement.

Eric N. Berg - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Thank you, Jim.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs. Alexander V. Blostein - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Hi, guys. Good morning. Back to the M&A discussion for a second. Jim, any sense, and I guess, when you're talking about opportunities to deploy capital and inorganic growth, any sense on which way you guys are leaning towards more in the broker side of things. So similar type of deals we saw you guys do earlier this quarter or last quarter or more on the asset management. Just kind of try to see given your kind of alluded comments on improvement pipeline and deal flow, which way does that pipeline skew? James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, I think, Alex, it doesn't have to be an either/or for us. We have the means and the ability to do both. We have the experience to do both and the operating infrastructure to do both. So, as an example, if there are things that fit in for us in the broker dealer side that would complement the good recruiting we're doing, we're open to entertain that. We have the ability to do that. We do look at things that come along. And the same thing on the asset management side. It hasn't been that we haven't kicked the tires on a number of things, but whether it's because of a combination of factors, operating factors, people factors, or just the value that people are attributing to some things, we would have passed them that might have passed on some of the things and that really explore them to that depth. But I think if those things come along again in that light, we have the ability to do both. Alexander V. Blostein - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Got it.…

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Tom Gallagher with Credit Suisse. Thomas George Gallagher - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Good morning. First question on what drove the big increase in RBC this quarter from the 560% last quarter to 625%? Was that favorable annuity hedging or what was driving that? Walter S. Berman - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. That is mostly variable annuity hedging and the value of it going up. Yes. That was exactly correct. Thomas George Gallagher - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Got it. And then just given the level of increase there, Walter, why wouldn't your excess capital have grown to north of $2.5 billion? Is it holding more RBC for VA? Walter S. Berman - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: No, it's actually – it is the continued buyback that we did in exceeding the level of our earnings. So there is an element within that, and so the net net effect is it has been in the range that we've reported last quarter. Thomas George Gallagher - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. So bigger drawdown of HoldCo cash offset by an increase in RBC. Is that the right way to think about it? Walter S. Berman - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Well, it's in it – yes – because RBC comes into our calculation. We look at the overall excess. Certain things we discount a little bit as we talk about but it is basically – we're feeling very good about the requirement. And we have used more cash, too, for buyback. Thomas George Gallagher - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. Just shifting gears to M&A. Jim, your earlier response, you mentioned, I believe, products on the asset management…

Operator

Operator

The next question is from John Nadel with Piper Jaffray. John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Hey. Good morning, everybody. I've got a couple. If I can just ask maybe a quick housekeeping one first. I think in the past, Walter, I don't know if it's been every quarter, but you have broken out the margin from the franchisee versus the employee channel for us, and I was wondering if you could do the same for third quarter? Walter S. Berman - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think, basically, the streamline has continued as we talked about it. Certainly, from that standpoint we've seen improvement within it. We're also seeing from that standpoint, we are comfortable with the development that's both taking place in the employee channel and with the franchise channel. I don't know if we've official broken it out but we just – I don't have the number in front of me but it certainly trend line wise, it's – we're feeling comfortable with it. John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Okay. So would it be fair to say that the gap between the two is still closing? Walter S. Berman - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Again, if you take quarterly the answer is certainly directionally it is closing. John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Okay. That's helpful. And then I have a question on variable annuities and their relationship to Advice & Wealth Management revenues. I mean, so really nice, nice growth in sales on a year-over-year basis. I think it was 11%. And I'm sure that had to help the revenues in Advice & Wealth Management channel. I guess the question is do you think you're seeing any advisors hold back…

Operator

Operator

And our final question comes from Ryan Krueger with KBW. Ryan J. Krueger - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Hey. Thanks. Good morning. I had a couple of follow-ups. On the U.S. Trust change in the relationship in the fourth quarter, can you just quantify the amount of assets that could be impacted by that? James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: I don't have a full thing, but we're probably talking a couple of billion, something in that neighborhood. Ryan J. Krueger - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Okay. Great. And then just going back to the AWM margin, I know you were asked about and you commented that you'd expect flattish margins if the equity market remains fairly flat. But if we get more normal equity market lift and – but interest rates remain where they are, do you still expect further margin expansion from here over the next few years? James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: Yes. Yes, I do. And again, there's a number of moving parts in there. As we said, we see productivity improvements from our advisors, but we're also adding a good number of new advisors, that we have incremental cost initially as they ramp-up. But then all the vintages ramp-up nicely in the productivity. So it's hard for me to sit here without doing the exact calculations, but if equity markets continue to improve, yeah, we would see a continuing incremental margin over time. Ryan J. Krueger - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: Okay. Great. And then just last one. Can you just remind us what percentage of Columbia retail sales are distributed through Ameriprise advisors? James M. Cracchiolo - Chairman & Chief Executive Officer: We're talking in the teens from a sales perspective. So we're a good provider in our channel. But we have other good providers, but it is not sort of an overly dominant position, but we have, for good, we have a good sales platform here. But it's one of a good number of another – we have a large number of providers. So we have good providers in the system as well. Ryan J. Krueger - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.: All right. That's it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.