Walter S. Berman
Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead
Thank you, Jim. As Jim indicated Ameriprise delivered another solid quarter financial results in the face of a fairly volatile market environment. Let me provide some additional context. Equity market volatility was elevated at the start of the year. Interest rates also moved a lot during the quarter, with the 10 year treasury rate starting the year at 2.17%, falling to 1.64% at the end of January and settling at 1.92% at the end of the quarter, and the strength of the dollar did impact AUM and earnings at Threadneedle. These environmental factors impacted revenue and earnings directly, as well as influence activity levels with retail and institutional clients. With that as context let’s look at the results in the quarter. Operating net revenue was $2.9 billion, up 3% from last year. Operating EPS was $2.18 and included a few one-time items. We increased reserves on a long-term care block by $0.11 per share. Additionally there were a variety of smaller items netting to a negative $0.02 per share that we detailed in the earnings release. Excluding these one-time items operating EPS was $2.31, up 13% from last year. And operating return on equity reached a new record level of 23.1%, which is above our target range of 19% to 23%. Turning to slide four, you will see that our business mix shift continues to evolve. Advice & Wealth Management and Asset Management represents 64% of pretax operating earnings this quarter and as we grow we expect the mix shift will continue and should reach 70%. We continue to expand margins in Advice & Wealth Management reaching 17.1% this quarter. Margins in the employee channel were over 10% in the quarter and were over 18% in franchise channel. This demonstrates the strength of our model, the success of our strategies to grow this business and the opportunity we have to drive profitability even higher. Asset management margins were a solid 39.7% in the quarter on an adjusted basis, reflecting continued good expense discipline. Let’s turn to the segments on slide five, Advice & Wealth Management business is performing quite well across key growth and activity metrics and delivered solid financial results, particularly given the market conditions. Revenue is up 7% to $1.2 billion with good client flows and market appreciation, partially offset by slower sales in a couple of product areas and the impact from volatile markets. We kept G&A expenses flat year-over-year. This resulted in earnings of $210 million, up 16% and a record margin of 17.1%, up 130 basis points from last year. It should be noted in a sequential basis results were impacted by having too fewer fee days this quarter than the fourth quarter, which equates to approximately $6 million of PTI. Overall the business continues to deliver consistent, good results demonstrating the strength of our business model. Turning to asset management on slide six, operating net revenue was flat at $807 million as the benefit of market appreciation was offset by the impact of higher fee outflows from the Acorn fund Threadneedle’s U.S. equity [indiscernible] as well as $15 million unfavorable impact from foreign exchange. Expenses were down 1% to $660 million, reflecting lower distribution expense and continued good G&A expense control, even with the additional relocation expense associated with the move to our new office space in London. This resulted in pretax operating earnings in the quarter of $191 million, up 4% from last year. Excluding the foreign exchange impact and the office relocation expense pretax operating earnings would have been up 8%. It should be noted that on sequential basis results were impacted by having two fewer fee days this quarter than the fourth quarter, which equates to approximately $8 million of PTI in the segment. Turning to flows on next slide, we had net outflows of $5.8 billion in the quarter. Retail net outflows were $3 billion, with outflows concentrated in a number of areas we have previously discussed, namely $2.3 billion in the Acorn fund and approximately $600 million from the former parent affiliated distribution and a sub advisor. Excluding these items, we are seeing some positive trends sequentially. Retail flows in the UK and Europe improved following a slow fourth quarter and we also had a large flow into our Asian Pacific fund. We are increasing awareness and beginning to see traction with our new Colombia Adaptive Risk Allocation Fund and we are optimistic that momentum will continue and we continue to make progress to improve retail distribution in the United States. The institutional business had $2.8 billion of net outflows in the quarter. Let me provide some additional detail on the two reasons we saw a higher level of institutional outflows than in recent periods. First, we had approximately $1.8 billion of outflows from low basis point insurance mandates in the UK. This includes a normal level of [indiscernible] outflows at $800 million. Additionally it includes $950 million of outflows from [indiscernible] associated with asset reallocation to funds we do not offer. However we expect to cover some of those assets later in the year into a higher fee product, so net impact of these flows should be neutral on a revenue basis for the year. Second; we had outflows in third party, mainly driven by a slowdown in the funding of new mandates. We expected several large mandates to fund in the quarter that will push back to the second quarter. Additionally we have redemptions in both high yield and short duration at the beginning of the year that we would expect to get back in the later part of the year. Turning to annuities on slide eight; Annuities pretax operating earnings were $172 million, down 2% from last year. However the prior year results include a significant benefit from clients moving to our managed volatility funds and the mean reversion benefit was similar in both periods. Without these items underlying annuities earnings were up 15%. Variable annuity pretax earnings grew 22% from a year ago to a $132 million, without the benefit of clients moving to managed volatility funds and mean reversions in both periods, these were driven by higher account values. Fixed annuity pretax operating earnings decreased 10% to $28 million as account values declined. Lapse rates on LIBOR [ph] expectations following the re-pricing of our five year guarantee block that are now coming out of surrender charge period. Given the current interest environment there are limited new sales and as a result this book is expected to gradually and earnings will decline. Let’s turn to the protection segment on slide nine. Protection pretax operating earnings were $51 million in the quarter, impacted by $32 million claim reserves strengthening for long term care. As we announced last quarter we conducted a long term care review of our claims reserve based on additional information received from Genworth, the firm that reinsures half of our long term care book and administers all of our claims. As you know this is a small closed block with no new sales since 2003. We have not seen adverse claims experience in the book and have been making appropriate premium increases since 2004. At the end of the quarter we had $2.2 billion of statutory reserves, net of reinsurance with about $400 million in claims reserve and the remainder in the active life reserves. Based on the information provided by Genworth management’s best estimate of a claim reserve resulted in a $32 million reserve increase. The most significant drivers were updates to the benefit utilization rates and claims termination rates, partially offset by a benefit from higher discount rate. After reviewing the analysis we received from Genworth we decided to engage a third party to validate their analysis. This review may result in a fine-tuning of our reserve and we anticipate that it will be completed in the second quarter. Excluding the long-term care serve increase, the life and health businesses performed in-line with expectations. We saw marginally higher claims than we have in recent quarters though still within expected ranges. The auto and home business had a modest operating loss of $4 million in the quarter. We are booking reserves for the 2015 accident year at a level consistent with the 2014 accident year loss ratio assumption we changed in the last quarter. The business was also impacted by $12 million of cat losses, of which $4 million was related to the prior year. As we discussed last quarter we are phasing in changes to our pricing to risk models, in addition to modifications to underwriting claims and operations. We are seeing early signs of improvement, specifically at targeted slowdown in sales across all product lines. For the full year we expect marginal profitability for auto and home with a more meaningful improvement to earnings in 2016. Let’s turn to the balance sheet on slide 11, our balance sheet remains strong with approximately $2.5 billion of excess capital and our risk-based capital ratio is estimated to be 630%. We continue to return over 100% of operating earnings to shareholders with $459 million distributed through dividends and share repurchase in the quarter. We remain committed to continuing to raise our dividend and announced a 16% increase yesterday. This brings our dividend payout ratio to the high 20% range. With that we will take your questions.