Walter Berman
Chief Financial Officer
I think, Eric, what we are saying is this when we -- and to be very fair for you, is when we actually gave you the idea of the margins, we were in a certain market situation with the idea that markets would appreciate, okay? And so to be very honest, as the first quarter, and you’ve even asked the questions that said, well, why are you coming off? What’s changed in your margin outlook? And so what has changed is the environment a bit more. Equity markets have come down a lot. Volatility has affected flows and client activity, and the same thing in the asset management business. I mean, we run a lot of equity assets, and so with the market depreciating a bit, it does impact that margin. It goes right to the margin and the bottom line. So yes, we have adjusted that based on those market conditions. Also, the effect that those market conditions have on equity flows, I don’t think—again, as we looked at the beginning of the year, I think the whole industry, including us, would say, hey, it looks like equity asset flows are starting to pick up again, that’s good. I think you have seen just again in the second quarter that flows have really been in fixed income. And so that exactly is the reason -- fixed income products don’t have as high margins as equity, even if you do get the flows, and the mix does cause a depreciation if the markets are down against the entire -- you know, if we look at the large base of equity assets. In the AWM business, it really is the client activity coming out and the lower interest rates, and so those are the only 2 changes. So even as I look at third quarter, I think we’ll be in similar type of margin ranges, but the fourth quarter we see, if things just continue to hold, the pickup—because as we said, some of the expenses will go away in the systems that will start to boost the margin in again. So it is very hard to put that as a finite to your point, which is very accurate, that we don’t know the market conditions for the next 2 quarters. The only thing we can say is based on what we’re seeing today, we hope they will get better; but if they don’t, we are just trying to give you a little better of what that would mean.