Jay C. Horgen - Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.
Management
Yeah, thanks, Dan. So I guess, first just starting from the press release, you can see we began the third quarter at $772 billion, and that was a record. We actually kind of had momentum all the way through to the end. Our average AUM for the quarter was only $764 billion, so we were already a spot rate up, about 1%, as we ended the quarter, which is a carryforward. And then since that time, so far in the third quarter we're up another 1.5%, so bringing our year-to-date market blend to a little over 8%. So in addition to that carryforward in the quarter and another 1.5%, and as you know, our model convention is 2% for a quarter, so we're experiencing higher market levels through July than our convention. And I think most people are tracking that. The other two main assumptions that impact 2017's economic earnings per share are performance fees and capital, capital deployment. And as you had mentioned, the majority of our performance fees crystallize in the fourth quarter, just noting that year-to-date we've had $0.31 of performance fees, but the majority is still crystallize in the fourth quarter. It's still early I think, it's still only July, but you can see from our AUM table under market changes for alternative managers that in total the combined mix of our alternative products have posted kind of more modest returns year-to-date. But when you look at it more granularly, which Nate did, it's really, most of our alternative categories are experiencing positive performance with just the systematic diversified category being down, so that's kind of a mix issue. And as you also heard from Nate, we continue to see strong performance across a number of our products, especially in the relative value and multi-strat categories. Again, just still early to predict. On capital deployment, consistent with our expectations for the first half of the year, we did repurchase $200 million. As we've told people, we are going to retire $200 million of our senior bonds, that'll be accretive $0.05 this year. It's more of a $0.14 run rate accretion for next year. We anticipate repurchasing another $100 million, as you heard me say in the prepared remarks, by year-end. Given that timing, it will only have a modest impact on 2017, but it's probably worth a couple of pennies.