Matt Blank
Analyst · Wolfe Research. Your line is open
Thanks, Nick, and good morning, everyone. With nearly two months under my belt at AMC Networks. It's great to be back in an environment with strong quality content at its core, echoing my many years leading Showtime. And a quick thank you to my friend, Josh Sapan. Josh and I have known each other for decades, and I'm grateful for his continued friendship, guidance and counsel. And I'm most grateful to be working alongside the terrific team here at AMC Networks. It's also so nice to be joined on this call by some longtime friends from the analyst community. AMC Networks had strong results in the third quarter, including revenue of $811 million, the highest quarterly revenue in the Company's history. We expect to have a strong finish to the year, so much so that we're updating our full year financial guidance, with an increase in total company revenue growth in the mid-single digits and total company AOI growth in the low single digits. And we're on track to deliver on the 9 million paid streaming subscribers that we first referenced in February of this year across our streaming portfolio of AMC+, Acorn TV, Shudder, Sundance Now and ALLBLK. Chris will expand on all of this in her remarks shortly. With our focus on targeted streaming, we're well on our way to our projected 20 million to 25 million paid streaming subscribers in 2025. With all the attention around the large streaming services that seems to dominate the news, it's clear to me that we're building a sustainable and long-term profitable business here with our unique approach to the market and how we're serving subscribers. As a new guy on the block, I thought I'd share some initial observations about the Company before turning this call over to Chris. AMC Networks is in a great position with several notable strategic advantages. First, we benefit from what I like to refer to as the beauty of small numbers and a very specific and carefully constructed approach to serving subscribers with targeted offerings that complement the larger streamers and our purchases companions to the offerings that have something for everyone. We have great IP and strong international content licensing revenue performance, which we are now transitioning to our streaming platforms revenue as we expand these efforts outside the United States. And we have an enhanced content pipeline in 2022 and beyond, unlocking untapped opportunities in both streaming and linear and driven by our strong brands. I'd like to take a few moments to expand on each of these. First, the 9 million paid streaming subscribers we expect to have by year-end and the 20 million to 25 million subscribers we project for 2025 may seem small when set against the large streamers. However, it will be absolutely transformational for us. 20 million to 25 million subscribers will make streaming potentially the biggest contributor to our business. And these goals are very attainable with our targeted strategy. We don't compete with the other streamers, and this puts us in a very solid advantageous position as we navigate a streaming future. And again, when I referenced the beauty of small numbers, I'm also referring to the content cost for our targeted portfolio. These costs vary, but, on average, are about six figures per episode across our various brands, a rational and sustainable content spend for what we are trying to achieve. Spending tens of billions of content each year is just not the business we're in today or we intend to be in the future. With our passionate superfan approach to streaming, we're focused on three important things that are core to our strategy and our success: content category depth, curation and community. Let's take our horror service Shudder, for example. No one super serves the horror fan better than Shudder. And our smart and sophisticated human curation ensures that we have the content that speaks to the true fans of the genre, most recently with titles like Creepshow and Slasher: Flesh & Blood. This is a huge strategic advantage that is not going unnoticed. Just a few weeks ago, The Wall Street Journal wrote about Shudder's non-algorithmic and personalized fan approach to curation. The idea of curation and fans discovering something new in a category that they love is something we hear about from our subscriber communities. For example, while you may not know titles like Acorn's Whitstable Pearl, The Heart Guy and Ms. Fisher's Modern Murder Mysteries or ALLBLK's Monogamy, Double Cross and The Last Fall, superfans of this programming do. And these are shows that drove subscriber growth to these services in the quarter and are among the most popular on Acorn and ALLBLK. Our current depth, curation and community are important differentiators from the mass streaming offerings, leading to lower churn and higher overall engagement. Continued investment in brands will remain key for us going forward. As a former marketing guy, brand building has always been in my blood. And I spent most of my career in the membership and subscription business. One thing I've learned is that it's a privilege to be invited into a paying customer's home. And it's critical to ensure our connection with these consumers is meaningful enough that they'll pay for us month after month, year after year. In a world where you can cancel with one -- just one click, ensuring your brand has a voice and your brand stands for something is more important than ever. AMC Networks has always pursued a strategy of targeting audiences with compelling content and powerful brands. And we've done a great job adapting this expertise to streaming. People associate Shudder with being the place for horror and suspense. They identify Acorn TV as the go-to service for British and international mysteries. The AMC brand and, by extension, our AMC+ offering is best known for two things: character-driven dramas, a legacy that started with Mad Men and Breaking Bad and now includes the likes of Kevin Can F Himself, Gangs of London and Killing Eve, and the epic world of The Walking Dead, The Discovery of Witches and the forthcoming Interview with a Vampire. I do think there is more opportunity to continue to build the voice of these brands, particularly as we expand our streaming services into the overseas markets. The Company's strong IP and franchises and deep library of TV and film properties is another big strategic advantage and, frankly, an area I think is somewhat under-recognized and undervalued. AMC Networks' wholly owned or majority controlled library includes more than 6,000 series episodes and 1,300 films as well as more than 20,000 episodes of highly localized unscripted lifestyle content from our AMC Networks International business. In addition, we have some of the biggest titles and brands known to a global audience, such as The Walking Dead, the Anne Rice catalog and the Agatha Christie library. There's great long-term value in this broad collection of IP, and we're very focused on increasing production of our proprietary content, not only as we create new hits, but importantly, as we leverage our library of titles to enrich the content mix on our targeted streaming platforms. As our current deals with Netflix and Hulu expire, we'll have hundreds of hours of high-quality shows and films coming back to us, such as critical hits like Halt and Catch Fire, Turn and Rectify as well as all 11 seasons of The Walking Dead a few years out from now, great AMC content to be discovered and rediscovered by fans, driving growth and driving value across our portfolio. We see this as a huge area of opportunity that the Company is only now beginning to fully leverage. So we're pursuing a streaming playbook that is very different from the large services that are trying to appeal to everybody. We're all about having targeted services with powerful brands, creating communities of fans around our content and services and doing so in a way that puts us in an entirely different arena when it comes to content costs and investment. One of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic over the past 18 months or so is that it accelerated what was to have been a far more orderly transition to streaming, perhaps by as much as four or five years. The massive growth of the big players during this period of time brings them much closer to some level of market saturation at an earlier point in time than we would have otherwise anticipated. As consumers become more accustomed to streaming, they're also looking to go deeper in different content areas, and targeted services like ours are well suited to provide this content depth. We're projecting to more than double our size in just a few years. So in short, there's a lot of subscriber growth runway ahead of us to take advantage of, once again, the beauty of small numbers. Our channels business remains sizable and continues to provide steady cash flow, and it's a powerful platform we're utilizing to promote streaming, subscriber acquisition, elevate content and strengthen new and continuing partnerships with distributors. We continue to be in close harmony with across both linear and streaming. Our channel business also provides us with a rich opportunity to grow our relationship with advertisers. To expand on advertising for a moment, our third quarter ad revenue benefited from a continuing robust market and strong execution by our commercial revenue team. We had a great upfront with some of the highest price increases we've seen across our linear channels and increasing demand for our digital inventory within the programming we're making available across AVOD and free ad-supported streaming platforms. And our terrific commercial revenue team continues to be aggressive in taking advantage of new advanced advertising technologies to help grow our business now and in the future. Before closing, let me touch on a few of the third quarter content highlights. AMC+ premiered the 11th and final season of The Walking Dead and expanded 24-episode season that will run through the end of next year and launched Kevin Can F Himself, which became an instant streaming hit, bringing a high volume of young female viewers to the platform and has already been renewed for a second season. Acorn TV had the biggest quarter in its history in terms of streams delivered, driven by top titles like My Life is Murder starring Lucy Lawless and Mid-summer Murders. Shudder just capped the biggest month in its history in October with its original film V/H/S/94 becoming its most watched and one of its most critically acclaimed movie premiers. ALLBLK had another successful quarter, driven by established original series as well as weekly talk show, Social Society. We continue to increase the collaboration between ALLBLK and WeTV, which has historically been the number one cable network for black women on Thursday nights and is now also the number one network with black women and adults on Friday nights. WeTV's Friday night success is largely a result of the strength of the Love After Lockup franchise, which continues to perform extremely well in both viewership and social conversation and will expand to a third series early next year. I'll also add that Sundance Now recently secured exclusive North American rights to the English language UK remake of the hit French series, Call My Agent, which has been a buzzy success for Netflix and one of my favorites. This new version will premiere on our platform next year. As I mentioned earlier, 2022 will be the biggest year for content in the Company's history. With many COVID-delayed productions debuting, including the highly anticipated returns of Better Call Saul and Killing Eve, the kickoff of the Ann Rice franchise with Interview with the Vampire, the continuing final season of The Walking Dead flagship series and the expansion of The Walking Dead universe with a new fifth series called Tales of The Walking Dead. I'll also note the upcoming original Series 61st Street, a great courtroom drama with Courtney Bevans, Dark Winds based on the Tony Hilleman best-selling novel, and Moonhaven, an incredibly timely show about a group that leaves Earth to colonize space. These are just a few of the content drivers that we believe will underpin our growth over the next year and for years to come. And throughout these remarks, I've referred several times to the beauty of small numbers. Well, the real beauty of these numbers is that they spell large long-term growth for AMC Networks going forward. With that, I'll turn the call over to my former and, thankfully, current colleague, Chris Spade.