Earnings Labs

AMC Networks Inc. (AMCX)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 6, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Christie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the AMC Networks' Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Release Conference Call. Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Seth Zaslow, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Seth Zaslow - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to the AMC Networks' second quarter 2015 earnings conference call. Joining us this morning are members of our executive team, Josh Sapan, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ed Carroll, Chief Operating Officer; and Sean Sullivan, Chief Financial Officer. Following a discussion of the company's second quarter 2015 results, we will open the call for questions. If you don't have a copy of today's earnings release, it is available on our website at amcnetworks.com. This call can also be accessed via our website. Please take note of the following. Today's discussion may contain statements that constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Investors are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future performance or results and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Please refer to the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a discussion of risks and uncertainties. The company disclaims any obligation to update the forward-looking statements that may be discussed during this call. Further, we will discuss non-GAAP financial information. We believe the presentation of non-GAAP results provides you with useful supplemental information concerning the company's ongoing operations and is appropriate in your evaluation of the company's performance. Please refer to the press release and related footnotes for GAAP information and a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP information, which we'll refer to on this call. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Josh. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning and thank you for joining us today. Our second quarter results were driven by solid performance across our business, with new ratings milestones and higher viewer engagement at our National Networks and continued expansion…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And your first question comes from Michael Morris with Guggenheim Partners.

Michael C. Morris - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, guys. Two questions. One, the first is just on advertising and the relative content spend. And so specifically what I'm asking is, it seems that the demand from advertisers for the originals is growing at a healthy pace but demand for other, the non-original content is declining. Can you just talk a little bit about the dynamic between those two? And then also, as you look at your content spend going forward, is there opportunity to reduce your content spend on the non-original side? Would you shift it into the originals, or is that an opportunity for some cost savings? And then I have one on OTT. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Hey, Michael. It's Josh. I think you've got the trends broadly right. The greatest desire and the greatest upward pressure that we're experiencing is in our originals. We think that's a good thing. That's the direction and has been the direction of our company for some time for reasons including advertising attractiveness and many others, sustainability of brands, and durability in a changing environment, and many other reasons. So, it is the case that we are seeing the greatest demand and the greatest price increase is for our originals. We take that broadly as good news. In terms of our content spend and sort of if what was is your question is a question about efficiency or ROI and whether money goes to originals versus other things, I think that we were ever mindful that we want an ROI on every dollar of content investment that we make. So, we do spread and mix the type of originals that we do both in terms of their editorial nature and in terms of their ownership qualities, which affects price. I'll give you a couple of examples. While shows like Mad Men and The Walking Dead, which, or Better Call Saul, which are scripted dramas and have higher price tags attract the highest CPMs and the highest demand. We also did a series on AMC called Making of the Mob which was, frankly, a lower-priced show. It had a little less profile. It delivered very good audience and was an excellent piece of business for AMC. So, we think that's a good indicator of an area that is smart for AMC to go into. Perhaps to state the obvious, on WE tv, our originals are relatively very efficient in terms of cost and return. We do so-called reality shows like Marriage Boot Camp, Braxton Family Values, Tamar & Vince, the new show Cutting It, and they come at a much lower price tag. So, I think if I'm answering your question, the highest prices and the best returns we get and the best brand build are for the most prestigious originals. They are the most expensive. We're populating our overall mix with some stuff that is somewhat less expensive. But we do think originals ultimately sort of win the day.

Michael C. Morris - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Analyst

I guess. Do you see an opportunity to reduce the spending on the non-originals side or do you think you're kind of at a steady state in terms of that, the amount of content you need for the rest of the slate. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: I think it really is – it's an eternal work in progress because we monitor ratings, of course, in the changing landscape daily and monthly, of course, and quarterly. And so, I think that Sean pointed out that we're sort of talking about broadly stable margins. So, in aggregate, we think we've got a balanced business, and we'll monitor and be careful about the expense out of the house. I don't think there's any immediate opportunities to eliminate content spend on some material that helps fill out the schedule, if that's what you're asking.

Michael C. Morris - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Analyst

Yeah. That's right. And then, just quickly on OTT, is there any limitation in your existing agreements either with your traditional distributors or with your third-party partners like Hulu or Netflix that would prevent you from possibly having an OTT solution of your own, not an or but kind of an and sort of like an analogy would be CBS All Access which they're still in the bundle but they also have another product. Are you prohibited from doing that, or could you do something like that? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: So, if you don't mind, Michael, I'm not going to comment on the exact things that are in all of our affiliated agreements. I'll only point out, if I may, that what we've chosen to do – we're mindful, of course, of the world. We're pretty careful, I hope, and thoughtful about these agreements which have increasingly become longer term. So, we're aware that we live with them in some cases as long as seven years. And therefore, flexibilities that we may require need to be baked into them. I'd point to our current behavior as being most important which is we are parts of packages that are offered OTT today with other services, and that is our MO for today and for the time being. We keep our eye on and are careful about what we write that has significant timeframe in front of us so that we protect our ability to go where we need to go.

Michael C. Morris - Guggenheim Securities LLC

Analyst

Thank you very much. Appreciate the answers.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Anthony DiClemente of Nomura.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. I have one for Josh and one for Sean. Josh, from time to time, we hear from other media executives who talk about providing a more extensive array of on-demand content, be it stacking rights or some people call it bankable content to the MVPDs in order to get more value from the MVPDs, whether it's higher affiliate rates per sub, value in their agreement. But some of us are just asking does that have an impact on diluting advertising dollars which are driven off of measurement of linear viewership. So, I just really wanted to get your view on that tradeoff, if you see it that way in terms of the stacking rights versus the rolling five that I think you do in most of your agreements. And I have a follow-up for Sean. Thanks.

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

Hey, Anthony. It's Ed. I think you asked a good question. And I think we have been very mindful of the ecosystem. And I think the deals we've done have preserved both the value on the MVPD side of the house and we've provided the value on the linear and the VoD side and increasingly are selling digital advertising as part of our VoD offerings. But then also enjoyed I think fairly top-of-industry deals on the SVoD side and we really view that a bit, Anthony, as our syndication window and we tend to have hold backs that are close to a year before we exploit that. So, there's not one sentence I can give you. It is a balance. We're always on the VoD side of the house with our MVPDs. There are some shows where we will grant more lucrative what you call stacking rights to encourage sampling. There are other shows that we hold back and sort of preserve more value for other windows. It's a constant balance that we work against.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. I understand. Sean, thanks. Thank you. Sean, thank you for the detailed outlook. Going forward, you mentioned that ex-BBCA advertising would improve in the 3Q off of the 2Q, which you said was low-single digit growth. Can you just give us hopefully a little bit more detail as to the drivers there? So, I think supply of new original hours you mentioned but is it more supply or more what you're seeing – what you guys are seeing in terms of ad demand in the marketplace? And then if you could just talk about the fourth quarter, should we expect a similar and a relative ad growth versus what we just saw in the 2Q and the 4Q as well? Thanks. Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure and thanks. So, I think that we'll probably have more to say about the fourth quarter on our next call. But as we look ahead to the third quarter or in the third quarter now, we're seeing a very positive scatter market with improved pricing. And I think I highlighted this in my comments, we have obviously a fairly strong original programming slate, premiering with The Walking Dead, August 23. So, obviously, the key factors are the state of the ad market today. We see very positive signs in scatter. Obviously, the delivery of the show that's launching on August will indicate how well we do in the third quarter. So, I think you understand the factors at play. I think we have a good market. We think we have a good content slate. We're optimistic about the results but certainly subject to those things.

Anthony DiClemente - Nomura Securities International, Inc.

Analyst

Cool. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Vasily Karasyov of CLSA.

Vasily D. Karasyov - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Sean, I have a question. By the way, thank you again for the guidance and for the color on the upcoming quarter. My question is about AOCF to free cash flow conversion. What do you feel the run rate of the business model should be this year and whether it's a typical year or not? And then I have a quick one for Josh. Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. I think that what you've seen in the first half of the year and what we've done, we feel very positive about the conversion. We're obviously reinvesting into original programming. We expanded the slate on an incremental basis every quarter. I think you'll see something that's consistent with last year. As you know, we are full taxpayer, and that is obviously burning the free cash flow as well. So, I don't believe that – again, I'm not going to provide necessarily an outlook over the next 6 to 12 months. But I think that what you've seen and experienced over the last 18 months is not dissimilar to what our expectations are.

Vasily D. Karasyov - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Josh, and I have a question about Humans. I know you're not 100% owner there. So, in case the show's performance diverges in the UK and in the U.S., whose decision is it to renew the show or not in future seasons? How does that work?

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

So, generally, I won't speak to any one show. But generally, in the agreement with the studio, the network has the ability to trigger a renewal. And we have – in the case of Humans, we have exercised that and we've triggered the renewal for Season 2. So, it's pre-negotiated contractually, generally.

Vasily D. Karasyov - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Have a good day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Ryan Fiftal of Morgan Stanley. Ryan Fiftal - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Great. Thank you. First, I guess, a clarification on the guidance. I think, Sean, you said strong double-digit National Networks AOCF growth in 3Q. I'm assuming that's on a reported basis, meaning that it includes the benefit of BBC? Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: That is correct. Ryan Fiftal - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. And then, I guess, trying to tie that back with the broadly stable margins guidance as well, I think there's obviously noise in assumptions you make. But I think with that kind of growth, you'd have to have margins down pretty decently in 4Q to not see some full-year expansion. So, is that consistent with your expectations, or is there some margin safety built in, or how should we be thinking about that? Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I think that I'm going to restrain myself from talking about the fourth quarter. I think that hopefully the philosophy and articulation of how we're managing the business and the margin profile is probably the best I can offer. And again, reported basis, solid double-digit and managing to a broadly stable margin. So I apologize for reiterating, but that's how we look at it. Ryan Fiftal - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. And then maybe one more on the margin side, international margins, I think they compressed some year-over-year. You mentioned the one-time favorable benefit. I don't know if that was a major driver of it or, I guess maybe more broadly, are we in a period this year where we're going to see margin compression there as you invest in content in…

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

I think strategically, we were happy with the way we were able to integrate BBCA into the upfront. Specifically, that means we were able to sell the original series together with the AMC, for example, and Sundance and IFC original series. So that's good. I will say an important strategy for us was to increase the rate card of BBCA in this upfront. And I think we made good progress in that area. Ryan Fiftal - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Todd Juenger of Sanford Bernstein. Todd Juenger - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. LLC: Oh. Hi. Good morning. I have a very quick one and then a more open-ended one for whoever wants the pleasure of answering. The very quick one would be, I'd just love to hear, especially given what's going on in the market, what your sense of your subscriber count is for your fully distributed networks this year compared to, say, last year and any trends you see going on there? The more open-ended one. I would just love to hear a little more on the renewal decisions, especially on TURN and when you think about Halt. I appreciate the prepared remarks you made on that, Josh, but is it just as simple as comparing the certainty that you feel you have when you renew an existing franchise? You sort of know what you're going to get in absolute audience and the trajectory and then comparing that to sort of the risk involved with trying something new and maybe shooting for something higher? Are there any other dynamics that we don't know about that we should think about? Anything in your sort of output deals with the SVoDs that favors returning series or just the value of re-runs in your own network, anything like that? Begging sort of the question is, is the performance that we see on TURN and Halt sort of as good as you hope for or expect to get from those types of franchises in your portfolio? Thanks. Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. So if you don't mind, Todd, I'll take the renewal question first. It's I think said at its simplest, it is ultimately economic. And so there is an…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from David Joyce of Evercore ISI.

David Carl Joyce - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Thank you. Just a little bit further to the – maybe to the content decision process as it pertains to your international networks. How much does that – the carriage outside the U.S. contribute to your decision making on the renewal and actually on the green lighting of new series? And then, secondarily on the international networks, can you talk about how your subscribers for carriage, in those – at the various markets have been trending? What sort of upside do you have in your markets? Thank you.

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

Sure. So, on the second point, David, we've converted – we've almost completely converted now what the MGM Network to AMC. We're in about a 125 countries and we are rolling now the AMC content at some of our shows onto our international channels. So, we see, as those deals come up, we then are in negotiation for higher fees. And so, you – there will be a lag obviously between the time that we're putting the content on the channels and when those deals come up and then we're able to significantly increase the affiliate fees. We also are endeavoring to grow the advertising business in all of those territories. To your first question, I would answer hopefully distinctly and say not much. The question was how – the question, if I understood it right, was how much the fact that an AMC Studio show is playing on an AMC Network globally versus any other network globally. What's first and foremost, the consideration is how the show is performing, blow the ROI considerations that Josh alluded to before. We really wouldn't – in terms of the international we really wouldn't view differently if that show was playing on our network or another network in terms of the renewal decision for that single series.

David Carl Joyce - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Alexia Quadrani of JPMorgan.

Alexia S. Quadrani - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi. Thank you. I just have a quick sort of clarification question about the quarter. You mentioned AMC Networks having softer ad revenues in the quarter. Can you just elaborate a little bit were the number of programming hours down, original programming down year-over-year or was it really just simply a ratings issue?

Edward A. Carroll - Chief Operating Officer

Analyst

Mainly a ratings issue. We saw some decline in movie ratings and we saw a slight decline in season two of returning series TURN and Halt and Catch Fire. And that mainly attributed for the decline.

Alexia S. Quadrani - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Seth Zaslow - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Operator, why don't we take one last question, please?

Operator

Operator

Sure. Your final question is coming from Ben Mogil of Stifel. Benjamin E. Mogil - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Hi. Good afternoon – good morning and thank you for taking my question. Sort of, first one for, Sean, Sean the $10 million sort of outperformance that you mentioned, I guess on distribution and licensing, is that $10 million kind of a timing issue or is that you actually got an aggregate $10 million more of licensing than you originally sort of hoping for? Sean S. Sullivan - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. It's primarily timing, Ben. We don't have perfect visibility with our partners in terms of how things are performing in the ancillary market. So, we anticipate the majority of it is timing. Benjamin E. Mogil - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay, great. Thanks. And then, sort of one for Josh, Josh, when you're looking at say something like Halt and Catch Fire and deciding on whether to go forward or not, beyond the obvious linear ratings in the C+7 and the delayed viewing, when you talk to your SVoD partners, what kind of role sort of broadly speaking, do they have – not they have – what kind of sort of input you sort of get from them in terms of that final decision-making process, if you will? Joshua W. Sapan - President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I think as I mentioned, I think the ancillaries on an owned show are a consideration. I think so we value what our partners think of the shows that we have. The true economic flows – so we do value any sort of distribution partner or buyer that we have if we are an owner. It doesn't necessarily mean that we're dependent upon their enthusiasm or decision depending upon the nature of the deal. Some of the deals are obligated deals and some are not. So, I would say that, in general, we really pretty much have control over the decision process about what to do and we've maintained that control. There are or can be provisions in different deals that could give them degrees of participation which we would need to take into account, they're occasionally there, not always there, but more broadly, we certainly are interested in their opinions. Benjamin E. Mogil - Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc.: Okay. That's great. Thank you very much.

Seth Zaslow - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call and for your interest in AMC Networks. Operator, you can now conclude the call.