Ron Delia
Analyst · Vertical Research. Your line is open
Thanks Michael. I will just take a few minutes here to talk about the longer term growth potential that we see for the company. And if I refer to Slide 12, any discussion on growth for the future needs to start with corporate strategy. And the message here on Slide 12 is that nothing has changed. I won't walk through this slide, again today it's been out there for a while. And that's really the point that the strategy has not changed at all. Our approach to capital allocation and deploying our cash flow has also not changed, that's on Slide 13. This is essentially our capital allocation framework. And it provides some perspective on how we think about allocating cash for the benefit of shareholders over the long-term. The numbers have increased a bit given when our bigger company but otherwise there's not been any changes this framework today nor has been for many years now. Through paying dividends and growing the base business organically in a defensive set of end markets, pursuing acquisitions or returning cash to shareholders. Over time value creation has been strong and consistent. And a big source of that value creation in the near-term is of course the Bemis acquisition, turning to Slide 14 just for a quick recap on the strategic rationale. The combined company is the only player now in Flexible packaging with a comprehensive global footprint and in addition to being truly global, we also have a scale and resource advantage in each key region around the world. Our customer and product portfolio now benefits from increased exposure to attract event market and product segments. And these differentiated solutions can now be transferred across regions and leveraged across that global footprint. And we’ve merged the capabilities and talent from both companies to create the industry's best team who are focused on delivering for our customers around the world. So we believe and continue to believe the strategic rationale, it's highly compelling. And we also see the potential to generate significant value for shareholders as a result. The starting point for the shareholder value that will be created with the Bemis acquisition is the cost synergy opportunity, which is recapped on Slide 15 here. And firstly, I would say we're pleased with how the integration has started. We've had the fast start that we planned for, and we can confidently reconfirm our expectations for the synergies this year, as well as the phasing of those synergy benefits over the next three years. In terms of procurement, we're taking a coordinated regional and global approach and quick wins are being actioned across both direct and indirect spend categories. G&A synergies are largely associated with reductions in headcount. And we wanted to start that exercise quickly so we can put it behind us and get people focused on moving the company forward to date, head count as been reduced by several hundred people and that number will increase further. And as it relates to footprint, those projects tend to take a little longer. So generally, the financial impact will be more towards years, two and three. But we've already gotten moving on that as well. And we've announced the closure of three sites so far with some others to follow shortly. So we feel really good about where the teams are in terms of the integration and the business, and the position of the business that we acquired. As you'll be aware, we were required to divest some plants in order to secure antitrust approval for the overall Bemis acquisition. And those divestments are now complete. And since Amcor is in a strong financial position, we’re able to fully redeploy the proceeds from those divestments to create value for shareholders now, but also into the future. Slide 16 outlines how we’re redeploying those proceeds, first, in terms of the $500 million share buyback that we've mentioned, when that's completed, we will reduce the number of shares outstanding by around 3%, enhancing future EPS for the remaining shareholders. We intend to start repurchasing shares in the coming weeks. And we will repurchase shares on both the New York Stock Exchange and the ASX in the same proportion as the number of shares, currently on issue on each exchange. And then secondly, looking more towards the future. We've also committed to make incremental investments of at least $50 million in strategic projects to accelerate our sustainability agenda. In fact, moving to Slide 17, one of the most important organic growth opportunities for Amcor comes from the increasing consumer demand for more sustainable or environmentally friendly packaging. And we see this as an opportunity because we start from the premise that there will always be a role for primary consumer packaging for food and healthcare products. That primary packaging, the packaging that touches and holds the product is what Amcor does today. And our packaging helps protect food and medicine, preserves and extend shelf life and helps brand owners promote and differentiate their products. And over the years, consumers have come to expect packaging that works first of all and is also lightweight and convenient, easy to use, cost effective, and great looking. Now all of us have an additional expectation. And that is for the packaging to have a responsible end-of-life solution that doesn't result in more waste, or doesn't end up in landfill or doesn't end up in erosion. So we believe the way to address those growing requirements, particularly around waste is through responsible packaging, and Amcor is uniquely positioned to lead the way and be part of the solution. As the industry leader, we have the scale and resources to innovate and develop new products, we’re seen as the partner of choice for collaborating with customers and other stakeholders. And we have the technical expertise to help inform the debate and educate consumers particularly around topics like recycling. This is an exciting time in our sustainability journey and looking at Slide 18, it's been a really busy year and 2018 quickly to recap, we became the first global packaging company, pledging to develop all of our packaging to be recyclable or reusable by 2025, to significantly increase our use of recycled materials and to work with others to drive greater recycling of packaging. In 2019, we signed The New Plastics Economy Global Commitment, we established a sustainability Center of Excellence in Europe, introduced several new products with more sustainable properties and used more recycled content in our products in both Rigid Packaging and Flexible packaging. And then of course, we took a significant step forward by bringing together the two R&D leaders in our industry which extends our capabilities and reach globally. Just turning for a minute to product development. Our approach includes a broad range of alternatives. In terms of our raw materials, we're using increasing amounts of recycled content and in our Rigid Packaging business, PCR content post consumer recycled content is approaching 10% and more and more products, including beverage containers are reaching 100% recycled content. In Flexibles, we've made good progress as well, and we're testing films with up to 50% recycled material. In addition, we've commercialized products, which use bio-based plastics derived from renewable sources. And each year, our products use less and less material in the first place. In Amcor’s success in light weighting has been a strong point of differentiation for a long time and this year alone, our light weighting efforts have reduced the amount of virgin resin we've used by 37 million pounds. Add to that our total use of recycled resin and our consumption of virgin material has reduced by more than 5%. And then as far as reducing waste, we're making good progress as well. We now have a broader range of recycled products and commercialization trials are underway with more than 20 customers. We're evaluating a variety of compostable materials which we've had in the market for some time, and our sales of reusable and refillable PET containers in markets where refill programs exist have doubled in the last two years. By 2025, our pledge commitments will have been met. And we will have done our part to ensure consumers and the environment benefit from responsible sustainable packaging and that Amcor is continuing to grow and thrive. Before wrapping up, let me summarize on Page 19 here our outlook for the 2020 financial year and what you can expect from Amcor in what will be a transition year as we integrate the Bemis business and move to U.S. GAAP. In terms of our outlook for fiscal 2020, we’re guiding to an adjusted EPS growth range of 5% to 10% in constant currency terms. Using 2019 financial year average exchange rates, this implies a range of $0.61 to $0.64 per share. This is inclusive of $65 million of pre-tax synergy benefits, it takes into account a marginal decline in the average shares outstanding through the buyback. Integration and transaction costs related to the Bemis acquisition and other items impacting comparability are excluded from our adjusted EPS guidance assumptions. We expect cash flow after dividends to be in a range of $200 million to $300 million. And this is after deducting cash integration costs of approximately $100 million. Consistent with most companies in our industry, we intend to provide annual EPS and cash flow guidance each year. But we recognize that during a transition year like this one, additional metrics may be helpful. So we've provided those on the slides. You'll note that our guidance is related to the full-year and not by quarter. This is aligned with how we run the business and as we progress through the year, our discussion and narrative will focus on the year-to-date performance as much as possible. Of course there will be investor communications each quarter and consistent with past practice we’ll provide a comprehensive management briefing each half year. Finally, moving to the last slide. In summary, FY 2019 was a transformative year for Amcor, the underlying business performed well delivering solid earnings growth and building momentum across multiple areas as we enter fiscal 2020, capitalizing on the value of potential that comes with the Bemis acquisition is one of our top priorities, and the integration is going well. And we're delivering incremental synergy benefits every day. At a time, when there's arguably a higher degree of uncertainty in the world, this gives us clear visibility to near-term earnings growth, and we've enhanced the value delivered to shareholders today by increasing our dividend and announcing a $500 million share buyback. We feel good about that. But we're even more excited about the opportunities we have to use our differentiated positions, to drive long-term growth and maximize shareholder value. That concludes our opening remarks and we would be happy to take your questions.