Adam Aron
Analyst · Imperial Capital. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, John. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us to review AMC's look at 2019 results. Since our most recent earnings call covering AMC's record-setting full year 2018 results, we've gotten together telephonically to take you through with as much transparency as we're able the impact of ASC 842 and the change in accounting rules surrounding our theater leases. To reiterate, and as noted in our April 24 presentation, this is purely a non-cash accounting change, with no impact on operations, or total cash flows. In our view, it does not alter the past or future performance of this business in reality. As we did this morning for clarity, we will do our best for some time into the future, to give you current and historic financials on both the actual and as-adjusted basis for ASC 842. In addition, we had the opportunity to get together in person at a well-attended Investor Day, where we showcased the strength of the AMC platform and the ongoing transformation of AMC's delivery of the quintessential 21st-century out-of-home entertainment experience. We get there by combining our size and scale with market-leading technology and world-class marketing prowess to communicate, engage, and sell to our guests on a frictionless, proactive and intentional basis. We're aided by AMCs having the largest consumer database of avid theatergoers, as a result of our AMC Stubs loyalty program, enticing recurring revenue through our now profitable subscription service A-List, along with a network of theaters richer and guest-pleasing amenities than what is offered by anyone else. At that Investor Day session, we laid out our competitive strengths and commanding market leadership position as well as our ongoing strategies to drive growth in adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow. In addition, we addressed our commitment to deleveraging to between 3.5 times and 4.5 times within 36 months and thereafter to reaching our long-term leverage target of three times net debt to adjusted EBITDA, which we believe to be prudent for AMC in terms of driving equity returns and the optimal cost of capital for the company. At the Investor Day, we also discussed in detail our view of capital expenditures for multiple years and set a marker on the ground giving you a framework to think about our medium- to long-term financial performance for AMC with targets that we believe are evidently achievable. While growth is not always a straight line linearly, we firmly believe that over a three to five year timeframe AMC can reliably generate revenue growth of 3% to 5% per year or 1% to 2% in excess of expected industry box office growth combined with delivering margin expansion after adjusting for ASC 842 of up to 200 basis points. As for CapEx having all you gone through much of the capital investment cycle domestically we believe CapEx will settle in over the next three to five years to a more normalized CapEx investment level of $250 million to $300 million annually. That's about $150 million in annual maintenance CapEx and $100 million to $150 million per growth initiatives especially those internationally. Note that this is down considerably from net CapEx investments of $500 million two years ago and $450 million anticipated for this year 2019. We encourage you to hold us to these targets. As we meet them, we should be generating meaningful free cash flow and creating attractive equity value for our shareholders. If you've not already looked through our Investor Day presentation, we encourage you to visit our Investor Relations website where you can download the full presentation and a transcript. Now let's turn to 2019. The background context for 2019 results is that for the full-year, we remained optimistic, confident, ebullient why don't you pick your favorite robust adjective that in 2019, we can drive yet another record year for AMC both in terms of revenue and adjusted EBITDA both of which we expect to beat full year 2018 results as adjusted for ASC 842. We always expected that the 2019 year would get off to a slow start and that the year will be back-end loaded and that continues to be our view. This is exactly what happened last year. Despite being the second biggest first quarter of all time, the domestic industry box office back in 2018 was actually down 2% year-over-year through mid-April. But then Avengers: Infinity War opened. When the dust settled at year-end, the 2018 domestic industry box office finished up 8% and set a new all-time record. Looking at the 2019 film slate, we many of you and other knowledgeable industry observers think that pattern will repeat again this year. For sure, 2019 this year started slowly. But that all changed with the record-shattering opening of Avengers: Endgame. Spoiler alert expect amazing title after amazing title after amazing title in the remainder of 2019. Our sense of the film slate from April to December of this year is that we could be seeing the busiest biggest 9-month period in the 106-year history of cinema and we would not be surprised in any way if 2019 becomes the first year ever in which the domestic industry box office exceeds $12 billion. You know that many consumer-appealing movie titles that will be in theaters near you throughout 2019. Among many others in May Rocketman, John Wick 3, Pokemon: Detective Pikachu and Disney's Aladdin; Secret Life of Pets 2, Men In Black: International, Annabelle Comes Home and Toy Story 4 all open in June; Spider-Man: Far From Home and Lion King what I think is going to be a huge movie to set July on fire; Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw and Angry Birds 2 highlight August; It: Chapter 2, Warner's incredible horror movie will fill red balloons in September; Joker and Gemini Man open in October; Terminator: Dark Fate another Charlie's Angels movie and Frozen 2 come in November; and of course there's December with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker along with the Jumanji sequel and Andrew Lloyd Webber's Cats, the legendary Broadway musical comes to the big screen will all please audiences just before the holidays of December. It is a stunning list of movies and the 2019 film slate has something for everyone young and old alike. Importantly, as you heard in the list I just rattled off family-friendly movies tend to perform better for both our international and non-urban domestic markets. And with the greater mix of family-friendly movies coming in the remainder of the slate this year this should be a boom for AMC both in the United States and around the world. Just as was the case during the box office record-setting years of 2015 and 2016 and 2018 the massive current success of Avengers: Endgame demonstrates just how many people could be flocking to theaters in the remainder of 2019. When Hollywood turns out quality movies moviegoers come in throngs to our theaters. Literally billions of times each year people the world over enjoy seeing movies communicatively in theaters on the big screen. You already know these mind-numbing stats for Avengers: Endgame, the highest grossing domestic opening weekend of all time bringing up more than $350 million domestically and $1.2 billion worldwide. And in just 1.5 weeks the fastest movie ever to reach $2 billion in global box office. Our hats off to Disney on its wonderful accomplishment, but we should all keep in mind with some glee that AMC, Odeon generates more box office dollars for Disney than does any other single cinema operator in the world. So when Disney wins, AMC wins. And make no mistake with its incredible skill as filmmakers and film marketers, and now combined with Fox, Disney is going to continue to win. That's very good news for AMC. Coupling, AMC's relationship with Warner Bros., Universal, Sony, Paramount, Lions Gate, FTX, Annapurna, Amazon Studios just about any filmmaker committed to theatrical exhibition is similarly tight. We can certainly say that Avengers: Endgame sure worked for AMC. In the United States alone, we wound up playing the movie 63,000 times in just the opening four weekend days. That's a full one-third more than at AMC for the previous biggest opening film. To accommodate this unprecedented demand, we had 19 AMC locations opened around the clock continuously from Thursday morning through Sunday night and about 180 AMC theaters with posted show time starting after midnight for a 3.5-hour movie comedy trailers. Beyond admissions, we also set not one, but two single day U.S. food and beverage revenue records during the Avengers opening weekend. More than $13 million was spent on food and beverage at AMC on the opening Friday. That new record lasted for all the day as was followed by an even bigger record set the next day on Saturday with $15 million spent. The Avengers: Endgame results were similarly thrilling for us for Odeon and AMC Theatres all throughout Europe and the Middle East. You'll hear us talk about operating leverage on the call in a moment. After all, cinemas are a high fixed cost, low variable cost business with shrinking revenues as we saw in Q1, profits are challenged. But when revenues are stronger, profits follow suit. Avengers: Endgame is a great example of how operating leverage works in good times to AMC's benefit. And we have many more big movies coming in 2019. Turning more directly to the first quarter of 2019. There are five shiny nuggets of information so far in 2019 that are highly encouraging to us as to what they portend for AMC in the balance of the year. In total though, the first quarter was a challenging quarter and one that we are thoroughly glad is behind us. As we had expected all along based merely on the timing of releases within the 2019 film slate the industry got off to a very slow start. At $2.4 billion, Q1 2019 was the lowest U.S. industry box office since 2013, down 16.2% in revenue year-over-year, down 14.8% on attendance. You're already aware that we had a tough comp with Black Panther opening in February 2018 and stronghold over titles from 2017 continuing into the first quarter of 2018 including Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jumanji and The Greatest Showman. In the first quarter of 2019 this year, AMC on a consolidated basis generated $1.2 billion of total revenues, which was down 13.2%, compared to last year and down 11.2% on a constant currency basis. This was driven primarily by a 12.2% decline in attendance globally. For AMC, domestic attendance was down 11.1%. Domestic admissions revenue in the United States was down 14.8%. Fortunately, however, we continue to see strong returns from our U.S. food and beverage initiatives with AMC's U.S. food and beverage revenues per patron, up 3.9% as moviegoers enjoyed our popular feature for our menu variety and our strategic price increases took hold. On the international front, we saw an attendance decline within our network of 14.5% and an admissions revenue decline of 13% year-over-year adjusted for currency, largely due to the same industry dynamics that we've noted earlier in the United States. As also was the case in the U.S., international food and beverage revenues benefited from a 9% constant currency increase in food and beverage revenue per patron as we continue to implement theater innovations, new food and beverage initiatives and take our domestic food and beverage knowhow into international markets. As I mentioned a moment ago, our business has a significant operating leverage, which benefits our profitability during strong attendance periods but adds pressure during weak attendance periods. As a result of the industry-wide attendance declines in Q1, AMC generated first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $108.2 million, down considerably from the prior year. As we stated in the press release issued earlier today, the comparability between this year and last year is complicated by; one a sizable prior year rent benefit related to a lease modification that did not recur this year; two, a reduction in cash distributions received this year related to the sale of our ownership in National CineMedia last year; and three, a meaningful non-cash impact related to the adoption of the new lease accounting standard, ASC 842. Adjusting for these three items, adjusted EBITDA was down $111 million from the prior year which is slightly below the decline in gross profit over the same period of $117 million, reflecting the operating leverage in our business. Just to spend one extra minute on ASC 842. For those of you who have not yet updated your models for ASC 842 had our Q1, 2019, adjusted EBITDA not been impacted by the new lease accounting standard, our total adjusted EBITDA of $108.2 million would have been higher by $22.7 million. Well, if that's the tough news for Q1, so what are those five bright spots so far in 2019 that I referred to earlier that we find intriguing and compelling. First, in Q1, AMC outperformed the U.S. industry across some crucial and key metrics, including that AMC outpaced the industry on attendance per screen by approximately 570 basis points. And we outpaced the industry by more than 700 basis points on attendance per screen if you compare AMC to non-AMC, meaning you exclude AMC from the U.S. industry statistics so it's not us against ourselves and the other guys, it's us against just the other guys. We also outperformed on admissions revenue per screen by approximately 340 basis points by about 450 basis points comparing AMC to non-AMC on admissions revenue per screen. Second, I mentioned earlier in the call the strength of our F&B spend for patron in the quarter, up 4% domestically and up 9% internationally currency adjusted. In the United States, we were pleased to see that F&B spend actually increased to $5.23 per patron which is higher than that realized by other major cinema operators and represents a new first quarter F&B revenue per patron record for F&B for AMC. Third, memberships in our AMC Stubs loyalty program is soaring. We will cross 20 million member households in AMC Stubs in the next few weeks, up from 2.5 million member households only three years ago. Stubs is, especially important, as it allows us to collect unique data around the viewing preferences and purchasing behavior of our customers on an individual account-by-account basis and then enables us to personalize the customer experience as they engage with us, both inside and outside the theater. Before they arrive when they are there and after they got home. Fourth, it is now formerly time for us to declare to you that AMC Stubs A-List our subscription program is a winner. As of today, we currently have more than 785,000 A-List members, 787,342 to be precise, which is light years ahead of our early projections when we launched the program less than 10 months ago. And if you're counting, that's roughly 85,000 more subscribers than when we spoke on the fourth quarter call at the end of February. And roughly 180,000 more members in A-List than we had at the beginning of the year. A-List member counts keep growing handsomely, even though we launched nationwide at double the price of competitors and more recently implemented in January of 2019 an additional 10% to 20% price increase on new members in various parts of the United States. Here's another important metric. A-List frequency of visits per member per month in the first quarter was 2.6 times, right within our desired sweet spot of 2.5 to 3.0 visits per member per month. Average week frequency per member Q1, 2.6. But that was admittedly in a slow moviegoing quarter. We can now report the average A-List frequency for April and the first eight days of May which includes the first two weeks that were heavily attended for Avengers: Endgame also was 2.6 times exactly as it was for the January to March quarter and right where we want it to be. Additionally we are also pleased to report that the A-List program was profitable and was accretive to adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2019. We continue to believe that by the end of the year A-List will be $3 accretive to adjusted EBITDA on a per member per month basis. Again that is way beyond our original expectations. We have good history now, 10 months into A-List and we think we have good visibility in the A-List going forward. And as I said, it is a winner for AMC. And the fifth point. While, we certainly saw a negative adjusted EBITDA swing in Q1 against the soft industry backdrop, we're already beginning to see the positive uplift in earnings on the heels of Avengers: Endgame in April. We expect to continue to see strong positive operating leverage throughout the rest of 2019 as the box office ramps. Accordingly, let me reiterate that we believe 2019 has the potential to be another record-breaking year for AMC. And as a result we now expect that our full year 2019 adjusted EBITDA will exceed that of 2018 adjusted for ASC 8421. One final update for you before we close, I'm pleased to point you to our announcement yesterday of our addition of a new independent Director joining the AMC Board of Directors, Adam Sussman. As part of the strategic investment from Silver Lake last September, we agreed to elect a Director with significant technology experience and knowledge and we couldn't have picked a better candidate. The Harvard MBA, Adam Sussman is currently the GM of Direct Digital and Geographies at Nike with over 20 years of digital consumer experience at major global brands including; Disney, Electronic Arts and Zynga. We look forward to his valuable ideas and contributions to AMC. In conclusion, before we turn to your questions. Looking at the totality of AMC, increasingly AMC is delivering a moviegoing experience to our customers that is frictionless and leverages data to create meaningful and personalized communication and experiences between AMC and our guests. We are marrying our global and upgraded physical footprint with a rapidly growing customer database along with modern technology interfaces, data-driven insights and innovative consumer engagement practices. Clearly, we continue to see in Q1 that this is all measurably driving attendance surges at AMC. With a strong movie slate coming and increasing consumer loyalty to our company, we look forward to the remainder of 2019 and what will hopefully be another record-breaking year for AMC. And as I said before what we might -- what we just think might be the biggest nine months in movie history. With that thank you for listening. And Craig and I are happy to take your questions.