Fermi Wang
Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open
Thank you, Louis, and good afternoon. Thank you all for joining our call today. Our third quarter revenue was above the high end of our guidance range increasing about 30% sequentially in both our auto and IoT business. Company-specific factors more than offset the overall weakness in the market, with our strength originating from our customers' new product ramps, especially those incorporating our new higher-priced AI influence processors such as CV5. We again achieved a record level of AI revenue, which in turn contributed to a higher blended average selling price. We are now forecasting fiscal 2025 revenue to increase by 22% to 24% year-over-year versus our prior estimate for revenue growth in the mid- to high teens. Last quarter, we described our new product momentum as a series of waves and the next year in fiscal 2026, we expect the first wave from CV5 to continue and be augmented with the commitment of the second wave CV7. We expect the first and second new product waves to enable us to grow revenue again in fiscal 2026 with both auto and IoT expected to grow despite the weakness in the overall market. Our CV3 AD family of SoCs for Level 2+ and high level of autonomy represents the third wave with revenue expected to commence in calendar year 2026 or our fiscal 2027. During the third quarter, we received the first silicon of our CV3-AD655 AI SoC, which targets advanced Level 2+ applications, including mass-market passenger vehicles, and we are now delivering engineering samples to customers. As you know, the global automotive industry is under significant pressure. So we are proud to forecast our automotive business is expected to grow this year and the next. I would like to remind you our automotive business is comprised of two different businesses. Our existing ADAS business and our central domain controller business, also known as the CV3 platform. Our existing automotive business, mostly ADAS with majority of now AI SoCs will represent about $80 million this year with an estimated five year compounded annual revenue growth rate in the mid-teens. Our CV3 platform targets a much larger but still emerging revenue opportunity. Level 2+ and high level of autonomy. This new opportunity has the potential to significantly accelerate our five year automotive revenue CAGR beyond the mid-teens CAGR I mentioned for our existing auto business. We remain highly focused on incremental CV3 design wins in an increasingly challenged automotive market. As you know, global vehicle production growth is slow, Level 2+ market penetration remains in the low single digits and OEM projects and the software development are delayed. In this environment, we have updated our automotive revenue funnel. As a reminder, our automotive funnel represents a probability weighted estimate of automotive revenue we could generate over the next six years, from fiscal year 2026 to fiscal year 2031. At this time, our six year funnel is approximately $2.2 billion versus $2.4 billion a year ago. with one business representing more than $800 million and a pipeline of more than $1.3 billion. Due to the challenging automotive industry dynamic described earlier, there has been significant volatility in the last years within the funnel as the customer's annual forecast was revised. Projects will delayed or canceled, new projects were added and the projects were either won or lost. Notably, we estimate there is about $2 billion not included in the funnel beyond year six, the terminal year of our methodology. We remain optimistic about our long-term secular trend for the Level 2+ and high levels of autonomy and the role that our CV3 platform can serve in this market. We are optimistic because our CV3 platform brings solution to some of the key challenges automotive OEMs are facing today, including power efficiency, scalability and open platform with the availability of optimized software IP modules and the centralized radar. We remain diligent in our efforts to get more CV3 business into the one column. I will now discuss representative customer activity in the quarter. In the automotive market, we highlight new model of new models featuring a variety of advanced safety and automation features. smart automotive -- Automobile, a joint venture between Mercedes-Benz and Geely, introduced its smart number five model in October. This electric SUV features L2 ADA system based on our CV2 with functional safety and is supplied by Tier 1 Aptiv. Xiaopeng also on us Xpeng, an electric vehicle pioneer in China, announced the P7+, a mid to full-size electric sedan that utilize our 12 video processors for the rearview electronic mirror. This e-mirror is pre-installed 100% of the P7+ vehicles and start of production commenced in October. Also in the middle market, the joint venture between Honda and Dongfeng launched its Lingxi L electric passenger vehicle, which includes a camera monitored system. These features include interior displays that replace the life and the right side exterior mirrors. This system is based on our CV28. Horizon auto, a Geely brand focused on development and the sales of commercial vehicles, launched its Xingzhi H8R light truck featuring from ADAS plus driver monitor system based on our CV22AQ. Turning to our IoT businesses. we are announcing the first customer for our CV server family, which represents the beginning of the second wave of new product revenue I described earlier. In the enterprise market, Verkada introduced its next generation of camera, including new 4K dorm, Fisheye and PTZ cameras based on Ambarella's latest CV72, the new camera feature advanced analytics, including AI-powered search. Verkada also introduced a new suite of video intercom and an indoor split mini camera all based on Ambarella CV25. Bosch announced its new FLEXIDOME 8100i, dome camera family based on CV22. They feature deep learning-based detection of persons and vehicles even in crowded or congested things. Alarm.com introduced five mega and eight mega pixel cloud IP bullet and done camera based on our CV22. The camera includes onboard recording and advanced analytics. In Japan, i-PRO, formally Panasonic Security announced the addition of 19 new models to its AeroPTZ camera list based on our CV22. We are encouraged to see better the expected adoption of our AI SoC in other IoT markets. While our products frequently target automotive and enterprise applications our AI SoCs are designed with enough programmability to drive adoption in other IoT markets. For example, in Insta360 recently introduced its Ace Pro 2 portable video camera featuring 8K video and the 50 mega pixel photos. Based on our 5-nanometer CV5, the camera includes gesture and voice control and AI-based highlight assistance. Insta360 also introduced its link and Link 2C AI 4K webcast based on our H22 video processors. Garmin announced its GC 245 and the 255 HD met marine cameras based on our CV28 and featuring on screen distance markers and the guidance line to add with boat dockings. Grad a leading technology company based in Singapore, known for its super app, providing diversified services introduced its KartaCams 2 to collect review images for mapmaking our CV5 supports 440-mega pixel image sensors to full 360-degree viewing and provides edge AI processing. From this partial list of customer engagement this quarter, you can see we continue to build upon our well-established position for AI computer vision at the age in both IoT as well as our traditional automotive ADAS market. In fact, on a cumulative basis, we have now shipped more than 25 million edge AI SoCs, and this helps set the table for the introduction of our new higher-value SoC supporting more advanced edge AI network such as VRM, Clip and the Gen AI. We believe the significant and continued build-out of AI training and inference capacity in data centers for more and more advanced AI network is a leading indicator for the secular growth opportunity we see for AI influence processing at the edge. Our strategic plan is well aligned with this and the first wave of new AI product revenue is underway. We expect the second wave to commence alongside the first wave next year with a subsequent wave starting calendar 2026 or our fiscal 2027 including the CV3 and our 2-nanometer platforms. New product success is a key factor in determining our incremental revenue growth next year. We are pleased to return to non-GAAP profitability in Q3. We are highly focused on driving revenue growth and positive operating leverage on the path to our target long-term non-GAAP operating margin of 30%. We have delivered 15 consecutive years of positive free cash flow through the year of fiscal -- through the end of fiscal 2024, and we are optimistic our new products can enable us to build upon this positive record. John will now discuss the Q3 results and the Q4 outlook in more detail. John?