Daniel Durn - Applied Materials, Inc.
Management
Thanks, Atif. This is Dan. Let me jump in. 2017 was a record year for the industry. At our Analyst Day, we said 2017, 2018 combined would be $90 billion. Gary, in his prepared comments, said several billion more than that, and we see the fundamentals into 2019 being strong as well. As we take a look at what's driving this level of activity, I'd put it into three buckets. First, demand drivers; second, capital intensity; third, our customers are very healthy. From a demand drivers standpoint, we're layering in additional layers of end-market demand, things like artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, big data, autonomous driving. We still have significant content gains to go in the handset and we're seeing significant demand for solid state drives. So, as we look across the industry, the demand drivers are multiple and broad-based. And as we take a look at how that translates to activity within our industry, each of the device types is showing strength. Capital intensity is up across the industry. In foundry, it's up 100% over the last handful of years. And in that same time period, NAND is up 60% and DRAM is up 40%. And customers, they're investing a lot, but they're making a lot of money. The level of investment, as a percentage of their profitability, EBITDA, is down over the last five years in memory, it's down 40%; in foundry and logic, it's down 50%. So, the ecosystem customers are healthy and will continue to invest and generate returns on that investment. As we look at the industry and where we're at, at the very highest level, I would say there is strong balance between foundry logic and memory, with maybe a slight weighting towards memory. And within memory, we see NAND about two-thirds of that market and DRAM about a third. In foundry logic, we see foundry about two-thirds and logic about one-third. And in 2018, we see that same or similar profile that we're seeing in 2017. So, we think that the upside is broad-based. We see NAND up, we see logic up, we see foundry strong, we see DRAM strong. So, we're pretty happy with the fundamentals through 2018 and into 2019.