Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) Q3 2014 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Welcome to the Applied Materials Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Sullivan, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Mike. Today, we'll discuss the results for our third quarter, which ended on July 27. Joining me are Gary Dickerson, our President and CEO; and Bob Halliday, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, let me remind you that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including our current view of the company's industries and our performance, products, strategies, opportunities, announced business combination with Tokyo Electron and business outlook. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied, and they should be interpreted in that light. Information concerning these risk factors is contained in our most recent Form 8-K and 10-Q filings with the SEC. Forward-looking statements speak as of August 14, 2014, and we assume no obligation to update them. Today's call also includes non-GAAP adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations to GAAP measures are contained in today's earnings press release and in our reconciliation slides, which are available on the Investor page of our website at appliedmaterials.com. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Gary Dickerson.

Thanks, Mike, and good afternoon. In our third fiscal quarter, Applied Materials delivered earnings near the high end of our guidance. We are demonstrating substantial progress toward our long-term financial model, having now improved operating margins for 7 quarters in a row. During the same period, we have stepped up our investment in research and development to create a pipeline of new product that will enable our customers' future success and drive long-term growth for Applied. We are in the middle of the biggest changes in semiconductor and display technologies in decades, and these major technology transitions are enabled by materials innovation. This plays directly to Applied's unique capability in precision materials engineering. Our strong operating and financial performance is supported by sustained investment in capacity and new technology by our customers. Across the company, we are building momentum for profitable growth. We have focused our strategy and investment in areas that have the largest impact for customers and generate the best returns for Applied. We are driving execution of our strategic plan by focusing on alignment and speed. And we are placing a significant emphasis on getting the organization ready to scale by ensuring that we have the right talent in the right areas. The actions we are taking benefit us today and pave the way for rapid integration with Tokyo Electron. The merger with TEL accelerates our existing strategy by bringing together both companies' complementary strengths to create an expanded set of capabilities. This will enable us to be a higher value partner for customers by delivering more innovative products faster and at lower cost. We are engaged in dialogues with regulators around the world, consistent with our goal of closing the merger before the end of the calendar year. During this phase, we have been advised not to provide details or answer questions about ongoing discussion. Turning to our market outlook. Mobility and connectivity trends continue to drive significant growth and accelerate technology innovation in both semiconductor and display. In foundry, the broadening of spending this year and the build-out of the 28- and 20-nanometer nodes is fueling record performance for our transistor businesses. The next major focus for foundries is FinFET, and we believe this will provide a catalyst for a new wave of investment in 2015, as customers start to ramp this technology. In memory, overall investment levels remained strong. NAND bit growth is expected to be around 40% this year. While the bulk of this incremental demand will be met by investments in advanced planar technology, customers are now publicly discussing their road map for 3D NAND to achieve cost parity with planar NAND. Based on what customers are telling us about their future investment, we believe the bit scaling advantages of 3D NAND, combined with performance improvement, will fuel 3D NAND spending in 2015 and beyond as more manufacturers move to this new technology. As we have said before, this transition to 3D materials-enabled devices is very positive for Applied, expanding our available market by 35% to 50%. In DRAM, we see supply tightening. Lower-power mobile DRAM shipments are expected to grow about 60% this year. And in parallel, there are indications that an enterprise-driven PC refresh cycle is underway. As a result, DRAM investment is increasing. We expect technology conversion to provide the 30% bit growth needed this year while seeing strong potential for new capacity additions in 2015. We anticipate overall memory spending being up approximately 30% in calendar 2014. And in addition, we believe we will grow our share with memory customers by more than 2 points this year. Looking at the market as a whole, we maintain our view that 2014 wafer fab equipment spending could be up 10% to 20% this year. We also believe that 2015 will be stronger than 2014, as the foundries ramp FinFET, more customers invest in 3D NAND and DRAM spending increases. In Display, 2014 is shaping up largely as expected, with strong investment in capacity and new technology. This is being driven by mobility, where higher resolution displays are becoming a major battleground for smartphones and tablet and TV, where average screen sizes are growing significantly faster than historic norms. In the past 2 quarters, we booked over $600 million of display orders, which is over $100 million higher than we expected at the start of Q2. In semiconductor and display, the major device technology changes that are taking place are enabled by materials innovation, and this provides a great opportunity for us. Over the past 18 months, we have aligned the company around our precision materials engineering strategy to drive growth at Applied Materials. Central to this strategy is the rapid development of enabling product, and we are very pleased with how our current portfolio and future pipeline are taking shape. This quarter, our metal deposition product business delivered its highest revenue in 14 years. Epi, one of Applied's first products, posted its highest sales for any 12-month period in our history. Epi remains a key enabler for next-generation transistors, and we believe the applications for Epi technology will grow significantly in the future. We are gaining share in both etch and CVD and expect our combined revenue in these markets to grow by approximately 40% in calendar 2014. We are also building traction with our selective material removal technology and now have tools at 5 large customers. Across the company, we are driving actions that allow us to move faster and scale the organization. We are strengthening our teams and processes in the field, product development and operation. This is enabling us to see inflections first and deliver solutions to our customers faster. We are in the process of making changes to our structure to better align the field, R&D, service and operation while getting ready for our combination with Tokyo Electron. To drive repeatable success, we have trained over 3,500 engineers and technologists across the company while investing in the development of our general managers and marketing capability. As technology transitions get harder for our customers, we are seeing strong pull for our service business. We have made significant changes in our service organization to deliver better device performance and yield, as well as more competitive cost for our customers as they ramp complex, new device technology. By building our capabilities in areas that help customers ramp new technologies faster and at lower cost, we anticipate AGS will deliver high single-digit revenue growth this year. As Bob will explain in a few minutes, we are converting our focus on alignment, speed and scaling into superior financial performance. The progress we are making towards our 2016 financial model is driven by strong demand for our most enabling products in transistor and interconnect; improving performance in our businesses that are growing the most, including etch, CVD and display; and actions we have taken to limit our exposure to the downturn in the solar market. To summarize, Applied has great opportunities, as we are uniquely positioned to apply our differentiated capabilities in precision materials engineering to enable major technology transition. We are only at the beginning of these inflections. The ramps in FinFET, 3D NAND and new display technology will be the next of multiple waves of investment by our customers. We remain highly focused on execution to ensure that we can take full advantage of these opportunities and can rapidly scale the organization when we merge with Tokyo Electron. Our teams around the company have already accomplished a great deal. The progress we are making towards our strategic and financial goals would not be possible without the hard work and passion of our global employees. Now, Bob will provide additional details on our performance and outlook.

Thanks, Gary. As Gary discussed, we have aligned the company around a growth strategy that is creating a pipeline of differentiated products to enable our customers' success as they make unprecedented technology transition. Before I get into the detail of our third quarter results, I'll spend a few minutes talking about our focus on execution and how this is translating and will continue to translate in stronger financial [indiscernible]. Let me provide some details about how we are executing better and faster in key areas [ph], how we are making sustainable improvements in our operating model and how these improvements are translating into stronger financial results. Here are a few examples of better, faster execution across the company. In SSG, market share gains are being helped by a significant reduction in our product development cycles. In AGS, we are driving profitability improvement with the introduction of new device performance and field service products and tighter alignment with SSG. In Display, we reduced our factory overhead costs and inflation cycle time. In EES, we expect to be above breakeven and cash flow-positive [indiscernible] the year. And for the company as a whole, we have been reducing our tax rates for the implementation of a more efficient tax structure [indiscernible]. Now let me give you some examples of the sustainable improvements we are making in our operating [indiscernible]. We have increased resource allocation to SSG and display, areas where we have superior opportunities to grow revenues and margin. Within SSG, we have increased our focus on the products that are most enabling to customers [ph] and where we have great opportunity to grow. These areas include Epi, CVD, etch, inspection and PVD. And we are relentlessly focused on reducing materials and overhead [indiscernible]. For the year, we're on target to achieve a 2% reduction in material [indiscernible]. Our strong execution is translating into improved financial [indiscernible]. On a non-GAAP basis, Q3 gross margin was at a 6-year high, and our full year gross margin will be up 2 points, approaching 44%. Q3 operating margin was at a 3-year high. The full year results could be up by 6 points. The fiscal year tax rate could be down by 1 point or more and is making progress towards our 22% target. And operating cash flow was at a 3-year high. Our focus on execution, alignment and speed is translating into stronger financial results today, enabling us to make solid progress toward our long-term model and getting the organization ready for our combination with Tokyo Electron. Now I will provide more color on our third quarter results as compared to the prior quarter. Orders of $2.5 billion were down 6% sequentially, driven by SSG orders, which tend to be seasonally slower this time of year [ph]. Compared to the third quarter of last year, orders were up 24%. And our book-to-bill ratio was greater than 1 for the seventh consecutive quarter. Backlog was almost $3 billion, with SSG backlog at a new 6-year high and Display backlog at a 5-year high. Net sales of $2.3 billion were near the midpoint of our guidance. Non-GAAP gross margin increased to 45.5% in Q3, which included 0.8 points in non-recurring benefits. Even excluding these benefits, gross margin improved by 1 point [ph] [indiscernible]. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.28 was near the high end of our guidance. Our operating cash flow was $584 million or 26% of revenue. Next, I'll comment on our segment results as compared to the prior quarter. SSG orders of $1.6 billion were down 6%, with decreases in DRAM and foundry, more than offsetting small increases [ph] [indiscernible]. SSG net sales of $1.5 billion were down 7%, slightly below our expectation due to some changes in the timing of customer fab. SSG's non-GAAP operating margin increased 1.4 points to 28.7%, reflecting favorable mix. SSG's operating margin performance was at the highest level in almost [indiscernible] years. AGS orders of $552 million were up 3% sequentially and up 7% year-over-year. AGS net sales of $567 million were slightly higher than expected, an increase of 14% [indiscernible]. AGS non-GAAP operating margin decreased slightly to 27.2% and remained near the highest level in 7 years [ph]. Display orders of $296 million were the second-highest in the past 6 years [ph]. Display net sales of $119 million declined, in line with our expectation. While backlog grew at very high levels, in anticipation [indiscernible]. Display non-GAAP operating margin increased by over 4 points to 22%, including a benefit from the sale of some previously reserved [indiscernible]. Display's operating margin was the highest in the past 3 years [ph]. EES orders were $66 million. Net sales increased to $103 million. EES non-GAAP operating income was $25 million, including the benefit of favorable litigation outcome. Now I will provide our fourth quarter business outlook. We expect our overall net sales to be flat, plus or minus 3%. Within this outlook, we expect SSG net sales to be down 1% to 7%. AGS net sales were flat to up 4% [ph]. We expect display net sales to be up over 60%, and EES net sales should be down approximately 35%. Non-GAAP gross margin should be approximately 44%, which would be up almost 2 points year-over-year. We expect our non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $550 million, plus or minus [indiscernible]. We expect non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of 25% to [indiscernible]. In summary, our strong financial performance and the progress we are making towards our long-term model is being supported by sustained investment by our semiconductor and display customers; our precision materials engineering strategy, which is focused on enabling major technology transitions for our customers [ph]; and our focus on improving execution, alignment and speed. With that, let me turn the call back over to Mike Sullivan for questions.

Thanks, Bob. [Operator Instructions]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Jim Covello from Goldman Sachs.

A couple of them. There's a couple of new DRAM fabs that are being built out, and, of course, there's a much discussed build-out from one of the other foundries, who's trying to play a little bit of catch-up on FinFET. Could you guys give us a little bit of perspective on the timing for new orders for those projects? I know, in particular, on the foundry project, different equipment suppliers have seen those orders at different times. So I'm wondering how much of that is still on the come versus how much of that you might have already seen, and then same thing on the DRAM side.

Sure. The big drivers of the technology transitions we talked about earlier [ph] [indiscernible] FinFET and VNAND. And if you look at FinFET, still very positive. I think it's a little more heavily weighted to early '15 and late '15 [ph]. If you look at VNAND, some of that has been slipping from [indiscernible]. DRAM was [indiscernible].

That's helpful. And then if I could follow up. You guys have done a terrific job on the gross margins. I think that you had commented at SEMICON that it was the highest gross margin -- quarterly gross margin in 6 years, then you guys did another nice bump-up this quarter. What are the biggest incremental drivers of gross margin from here? Is it just volume, mix or lower component costs? Or how would you categorize the bridge between where you are today and wherever you might be able to go? Because it's been very impressive so far.

Yes, there's 2 sets of opportunities, Jim. The one that is most disruptive and sexy and attractive is interesting new disruptive products that are really valuable for [ph] customers. And those, frankly, are starting to come, especially next year, we'll see more of that. The progress we made to date is just managing very tightly [ph]. If you look at our gross margins across virtually every segment of AGS, solar, Display and Semitool [ph]. So it's blocking and tackling, reducing operating costs, reducing the build costs, better mix -- driving better mix in terms of your revenue and sales, better mix between segments. So I think these systemic things, just grinding away at mix, cost issues, positioning and betting on the right products is going to help us quarter in, quarter out for the next several years. I think the disruptive new product is coming out more next year. So we see 2 opportunities there, one is pretty systemic and one is [indiscernible].

Yes, what I would say also, Jim, is that the -- as we've talked about, these transitions are really in the sweet spot for us, with all of the precision materials, engineering, technologies and products that we have. And, really, the customer pull is stronger than we've ever seen. Our percent of the TAM increases as some of these materials-enabled devices start to ramp. So as Bob said, that's the key strategic issue for our customers, and that's really what gives us a great opportunity to grow our business over the next few quarters and over the next few years.

Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from ISI Group.

I guess, first question, I was hoping to get an update on integration efforts with TEL. You provided some great info at SEMICON and prior to that; would love to get an update there.

Yes. On the -- thanks for the question, C.J. On the merger, we're absolutely convinced that this is the right strategy to bring more value for our customers, drive innovation with better products, faster and lower cost. And I think as we continue to work together, we're more and more convinced of that. And that really is accelerating our existing strategy in materials innovation and really focused on the key challenges, the key strategic challenges that our customers have. So that's been going very well. The integration planning has really been tremendous. We talked, as you said, last month a lot about that relative to the organizational structure. We're aligned on the culture and the mission, vision and values, the operating rhythm. And what I've seen is just a continual building of those relationships and excitement of all the key people on both sides. So really just tremendous progress ahead of where we thought we would be at this point.

I agree with Gary. I think the mechanics of the integration, which seemed to be your question, C.J., is going actually really well, better than I would have expected. The engagement by the teams has been really good. Working relationships have been strong. Sort of the rhythm of it in terms of operating organization, how we'll do business together has been pretty darn positive. I think we see line of sight to the synergies. Pretty damn good, I'd say.

That's great. And if I could ask a follow-up. It looks like revenues came to the low end of the range, and the culprit was silicon. And at the same time, your backlog actually grew there, I think, 4%. So curious, how should we think about the time frame of recognizing revenues there? And does that suggest a strong January quarter and/or does that kind of bleed into the first half of '15?

Yes, we do have a really strong backlog, actually, in SSG and Display. We've been talking about the display backlog and the orders build for a couple of quarters. We're going to start to get some significant benefit for the Display backlog in terms of the revenue line next quarter. SSG backlog will help us next quarter, but I think some of that benefit will also go into fiscal [indiscernible].

Your next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse. Farhan Rizvi - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: This is Farhan asking a question on behalf of John. My first question is regarding the breakup of orders within SSG. Did you provide a breakup between NAND, DRAM, foundry and logic? I may have missed it on your commentary.

We didn't provide.

Yes, it's in the press release, Farhan, so we can definitely point it out to you later and... Farhan Rizvi - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: No, that's fine.

Okay. Farhan Rizvi - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Okay. And then in regards to 2015 expectation, you talked about a significant ramp in 3D, and also, on DRAM side, you're persisting that there could be a pickup as the capacity additions may possibly resume. From -- in terms of your outlook for 2015, which segments do you expect to grow most? If you could just give us a sense of is there strength more in foundry or is it more in memory?

So first of all, 2015, we think will be an up year, as we talked about before. Kind of the major changes that are happening in '15, we see that the investment in FinFET technologies are going to pick up a fair amount. Should be -- our current forecast is something like 50% of the foundry business we'll be investing for those technologies in 2015. And we see foundry investment may be up slightly in 2015. The memory business for both NAND flash and DRAM, we see both of those being up. And also, as we talked about before, we see 3D NAND investment in '15 increasing significantly from where we're at in 2014. So those are the major drivers.

Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from Cowen and Company.

A couple of things. Bob, I wanted to ask about the performance of the company this calendar year versus what your financial model is. And I understand that the financial model is a 2016 model, so maybe the answer is just time. But this year, you're going to do with like -- WFE is sort of in the low-30s, maybe it's $32 billion, I think, is what you guys are now saying. You're going to do somewhere in the $1.10 range, if you assume that the January quarter is not like heroically up or down. And your financial model has you doing $1.50 at $30 billion WFE. So my question is, what is going to happen or sort of what has to happen to get from where you are this year to where the financial model says you'll be? Because there still seems to be a big gap.

I've got to check the math. I didn't know if it's $1.50 at $30 billion, frankly. This year, it's about a $31.6 billion to $31.9 billion WFE. So if you look at -- we got a gain [ph]. We said in the model we're going to get to 19.9% wafer fab equipment in SSG. We ended last year at 19.1%. We haven't forecasted it this year. But the year before, it's 17.7%; we gained [ph] 1.4% through last year in wafer fab equipment. We continue to be optimistic that we'll get to the 19.9% [indiscernible] model. The second thing is gross margins. I think at the $30 billion model, we were at like 44%, 45%. In the quarter just ended, we did 45.5%. This year, we'll probably be about 44%. So it's a little higher volume, $31.6 billion versus the $30 billion model. So we're actually getting there. OpEx, I think, in the $30 billion -- I'm doing this from memory, Tim. I think it was like a 2 2 [ph] or something like that.

2 1 [ph].

2 1 [ph]. So right now, we're trending to be about 220 [ph] on the year so we did about $100 million [ph] extra expense. Just a little 450 [ph] spend in our numbers and then we've got some managed expenses and inflation a little bit, so we're off [ph] about 100 [ph]. Tax rate, we said, would be 22% in that model. And right now, we're running a full year, I think we're going to end up around 23, 24 [indiscernible]. So -- and I feel pretty good about the 22% getting there. So if you look at -- I think we're about 70% on track. [indiscernible] we've got to get a little more share gain, a little more gross margin, manage down expenses a little bit [indiscernible]. Let me just check the math. I guess we are [indiscernible], but those are the levers, I think about 65%, 70% there. Yes, you're right, it is $1.50[ph].

Awesome. Okay. And then just a follow-up on the fourth calendar quarter. If you look at the numbers that Semi puts out, the run rate for Q1 with WFE was like $34 billion, $33 billion, $34 billion. Q2 is like $30 billion. And then most companies, including you guys, are sort of guiding Q3 down just a touch. So maybe you're sort of in the $30 billion range. So if the full year is going to be $32 billion, then the fourth quarter has to be a pretty good quarter to get you to $32 billion for the year. Is that what you see right now, that the fourth quarter is going to be up pretty sizably in SSG?

Yes, we haven't guided to a Q1 yet, but we think Q1 is probably stronger, fiscal Q1 for us, right, which is November, December. It's been that way pretty often in recent past. And if you think about -- we talked about earlier, Tim, about technology transitions, VNAND and FinFET. They slipped down [ph] a little bit on the -- in the middle of this year, but they still look very committed to those. So my guess is that the fiscal Q1 for us or the calendar Q4 for the industry is probably [indiscernible].

Your next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan. Harlan Sur - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Given the complexities, both process development and yield ramps associated with some of these next-generation technologies, it looks like your take rate and attach rates on services is growing nicely. I think you guys said you anticipate high single-digits percentage growth this year. Given what appears to be a continuation of this complexity trend, would you expect similar type of growth going forward? And at this type of growth rate, are you guys driving OpEx leverage?

Yes. So we definitely see opportunities in the service business. As customers are going through dramatic technology transitions in foundry and in memory, it really creates a great opportunity for us. We've done a lot in terms of aligning our service strategy to those opportunities. We've changed the organization structure. So there's tighter alignment between SSG and AGS. So we're really focused on those device performance and yield and cost challenges. As customers are making those transitions, we're seeing good response from customers, so strong pull for those types of capabilities. As customers are making these transitions, getting the particles to the level they need to be to get good yield, edge die yield, uniformity, all of these things are harder and harder. And we're aligning our company and our strategy and our structure to really provide more value for our customers and drive those opportunities. So we see, as we said, the single-digit revenue growth this year. So we really see this, as you talked about, as a great opportunity for us to continue to drive the service business going forward. And there -- we see a lot of leverage also as that business grows. Harlan Sur - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Great. And then on the selective removal platform, I think at SEMICON, you pegged this as about a $1 billion opportunity. You talked about tools being placed with 5 large customers. What technology nodes are your early customers looking to use this solution in high-volume manufacturing? And is it more targeted for front-end-focused or back-end-focused applications?

Yes, thanks, Harlan. So we've always seen some cases where customers are putting the selective removal technology into production, but we really see this more as you go forward to some of these future device technologies. Especially, we've seen adoption of this in memory. And there are a number of different potential opportunities in patterning. You have things like pattern collapse. As you're going vertical to the taller 3D types of structures with the tighter design rules, that's where you start seeing the current technologies running out of gas and an opportunity for us to implement the selective removal technology. So we do see some already, layers going into production with this technology. Certainly, we'll see it ramping next year, and then probably the year after that, even stronger adoption.

Your next question comes from the line of Romit Shah from Nomura.

Yes, the spending environment has been under a little bit of pressure recently, but we're seeing what I think is just a higher level of stability in your revenues compared to some of your peers. And I'd love your perspective on that. Is that just seasonal or do you guys see your businesses inherently being less cyclical?

Yes, I think, generally, the semi industry is a little less cyclical, a little more seasonal, as you go to more and more consumer products for the chip versus [indiscernible]. So I think that's true, and I think a lot of people believe that. I think the Display business, half of it or 60% of it is kind of cyclical big TV size, more TV capacity added. I think there's a little bit more systemic growth on the smaller screen sizes, phones, iPads, things like that. So net-net, between Semi and Display, I think we're trending more seasonal versus cyclical, historically. And the other thing that's going pretty well for us: the service business looks like it's going to get [ph] some growth. And also the solar business, the growth is moderate, but the profitability is [indiscernible].

And your SSG revenues were a little bit lighter, but margins were a lot better. Bob, you mentioned mix. I was hoping you could provide a little bit more color on what was it within the mix that drove the better margins there.

Yes, a couple things. One, I think -- the revenues, I was actually, in hindsight, in SSG, relatively pleased. We had strong bookings. Revenues were a little under what we thought, but there were things that transpired in the quarter that happened there that we managed it pretty well. And then if you look at our peers, our guide and our actuals sort of our second quarter, our third quarter and even our third quarter through our fiscal fourth quarter, we compare pretty well, actually. So the revenues in SSG and the company are holding up okay. If you look within SSG revenue mix model, which you're asking on the margin, we're making some progress in most of the products and some margin, cost reduction, efficiency, selling more upgrade products. It's all of the execution things you think about every day. So the gross margins are trending up a little bit. Now what we're very optimistic about is the money we've invested last year, last couple of years, really, in R&D and SSG because we put a heavy weighting of that this year on 300-millimeter products versus 450 last year. We think those are going to give us some more lift on opportunities in the revenue and gross margin line of product [ph].

Your next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from Merrill Lynch.

The first one I have was for Gary. If you look at the 3 big technology inflations next year, 3D NAND, FinFET and multi-patterning DRAM, in your WFE assumption, which do you think is -- in terms of dollars, which do you think is going to be the biggest? Do you think 3D NAND or FinFET?

In terms of dollars, the FinFET -- or the foundry spending is going to be higher than 3D NAND. And what we see in both the FinFET and 3D NAND is a real strong transition to both the FinFET as a percentage of that spending and also 3D NAND as a percentage of the NAND flash spending. So in both cases, we think that the spending for those new technologies are going to be around 50%. And as we've said before, that's very positive for us because we have great products in enabling new transistor technologies. And 3D NAND is really materials-enabled versus litho-enabled. So it's very heavy in areas where we have a very strong position. So in both cases, we see about half of the spending next year being those new technologies. Foundry is about 2x the total spending versus 3D NAND. So that would mean that the FinFET is more heavily a percentage of our revenue versus 3D NAND.

Got it, got it. That's very helpful. And just as a follow-up, you mentioned in your prepared comments about capacity additions in DRAM next year, despite just technology changes this year. So next year, when you look at capacity additions, can you try to quantify or help us quantify, in terms of wafer starts or [indiscernible], what do you expect for DRAM capacity has to be in calendar '15?

Yes, what we see in DRAM next year is up some versus 2014. But if you look at '13 to '14, the WFE spending really is going up pretty dramatically. We have it up in the 30% to 45% range in terms of total WFE spending in DRAM. And we see it up slightly, maybe less than 5% next year, is our current view. And on the capacity versus technology, we see it much heavier-weighted in capacity buys versus technology buys in 2015, but that's our current view.

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Chin from UBS.

I just wanted to follow up on the segment operating margin. Maybe to start with, if, Bob, you can maybe share some color on the rising of unallocated corporate expenses. Is that mostly due to merger with Tokyo Electron? And does that go away after the merger is completed? So maybe there's room for additional operating margin improvement from that corporate line?

So if you look at GAAP versus non-GAAP, we have a couple of points spread between our GAAP and non-GAAP PVD [ph], the tax income. It's actually -- generally, the spend just gets tighter, but there's about -- most of that is the Tokyo Electron. And then we also have this corporate sometimes under the bonus plans. I think a lot of that you're looking at is a non-GAAP related to [indiscernible] merger costs [ph].

Okay. And then maybe a follow-up question on the improving gross margin. How much are gross margins benefiting from this diversification of spending by the customer base, especially in foundry? The question is, can gross margin possibly see another tailwind as customers not named Intel or GSMC or Samsung memory become a biggest piece of your sales?

Let me go back to give you the answer I gave before and then give you more color first [ph], Stephen. What we've done to date is we've done a lot of good blocking and tackling with places like EES, where we have -- get the cost down, get -- run it back at a rate in business and raise gross margin [ph] that contribute to the company. If you look at display, it reduced their overhead costs and getting valuable products. The whole mix of things have done well. If you look at AGS, trended up a little bit with gross margins there, too. So it's all of the blocking and tackling across the company. So you can't pick a heroic thing, you just look at good blocking-and-tackling and execution and a broad range of activities. Within SSG, specifically, where you're talking about, there's things -- blocking and tackling probably helped us some. The second thing that helps and hurts periodically in the quarter is just mix of the individual products. So we're actually gaining share in etch, which we talked and we're very pleased with. But the gross margins are a little bit lower in these early etch tools. And it's not pricing, it's just etch is always a little bit lower for us the last 20 years. So the mix within quarters, once [indiscernible], the systemic thing in SSG, the blocking and tackling is getting better, new products are coming, which will help SSG, you have timing mix quarter-to-quarter, which is a plus or minus. Now the question you're asking is mix between customers. We don't typically talk about mix between customers. Configurations are different, the mix of product sales is different. But generally, we think we're in line to sell a more valuable set of product volumes.

Your next question comes from the line of Sundeep Bajikar from Jefferies.

Would you please provide your perspective on Applied's Display business in China? What's your outlook for new investments in display technology from China over the next year? And how would you characterize the competitive landscape over there for display equipment? As part of that, perhaps also help us understand if there are any major synergies between Applied's Display business and Semiconductor business in China.

Thanks, Sundeep. The business in China for display is definitely very strong. And as we've talked about before, our customers are going through transitions in amorphous silicon, to LTPS, to metal oxide and organic LED types of display technologies. Our market share performance in display is really exceeding our expectations. We have very strong products, as customers are ramping these new factories and ramping these new technologies. So we're -- China is a big percentage of our business right now. I think we recently announced an order where we had 100% market share in one of the big factories there. So overall, we're very, very optimistic about display. We talked also about the last 2 quarters having more than $600 million in orders. So the overall momentum there is very good. And as Bob talked about, the team is really outstanding. They're executing really well in terms of their new product introduction. They've cut their install cycle times down dramatically. A lot of different things they're doing there not only from an innovation standpoint but also from an execution standpoint.

Great. That's very helpful. And just to follow up, how much exposure does Applied have to flexible OLED display? If we see a product in technology ramp in flexible display, say, in the next 6 to 12 months, is there a chance we would see it impacting Applied's fundamentals?

We do have products. So OLED, with the current displays, the TAM opportunity for us goes up by about a factor of 2. And -- so that's a very good opportunity for us with existing technologies. We also have some new technologies that we are seeing traction with some of these flexible products that are being -- the early ones that are being adopted by customers. And we have opportunities there with new business. We're seeing the early indications of that, but we definitely do have opportunities there also.

I think, Gary, now when it also grows our addressable market [indiscernible].

Absolutely.

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Ho from Stifel, Nicolaus. Patrick J. Ho - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: Maybe first question, in terms of the share gains you guys have generated over the past year or so, as we look at 2014 versus 2015, as FinFET and 3D NAND ramp even higher next year, how much of the share gains will we, I guess, see realized in 2015, given that, Bob, I think you mentioned some of the new products that are out there? How much more will we see that impact hit the company's, I guess, top and bottom line in 2015?

Yes, we think a few things play for us in 2015, Patrick. One, we think we could gain share. The addressable market for those products was growing fast, and we think we'll gain share. And those markets tend to be around CVD. Etch, we think, will do well. Some CMP steps are being added, I believe, in one of those structures. So it looks pretty good for us. The second thing, so mix of customer spending should play for us for those things, number one. Number two, some of our tools that we're offering in there will play for us. And then, three, within the mix of that customer spending, it's more -- first point of mix was between customer. Second was in the type of products they're buying. 3D NAND and FinFET is more heavily weighted than where we're gaining share. So I think all of those will play first usefully [ph] on the market share opportunities in [indiscernible]. Patrick J. Ho - Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division: Great. And maybe a specific question for you, Bob. Looking at the last several quarters, you guys have done a really good job in terms of, it looks like inventory, as well as DSOs and the supply chain. If you could give some of the examples of what you've done on those fronts to improve the balance sheet metrics, as well as cash flow generation.

Yes, some of the stuff isn't glamorous. I think the whole company's done a good job. I mean, if you think of some of the stuff we pulled onetime today, whether it's the display tools we [indiscernible] the money on, the inventory we pulled in solar, EES, the -- some of the stuff in the customs audit in Korea, there's just a lot of good blocking and tackling across a wide range of people in the company, and it feels like it's building momentum. That's a good thing. In terms of higher-level principles, we are taking more strategic view of the supply chain, I think, in terms of the ramp, IP, costs and sourcing opportunities. I think we're starting to subsegment our supply base into people who have high IP versus low-cost opportunity. I think we're tackling that a little bit [indiscernible]. I think if you look at our new products, as we're going to ship new products, we're taking a deeper view of the IP opportunities in those new products. We have sustainable differentiation ourselves. And then we'll probably take a more strategic view of it. That's still developing. We get better and better. In terms of the balance sheet, [indiscernible]. I think we're doing better. I think it's a big [indiscernible] opportunity, to be honest. But I think inventory, how we manage inventory in the factory and service, we made some progress. I think we're going to continue to make [indiscernible].

Your last question comes from the line of Mahesh Sanganeria from RBC Capital.

Just wanted to follow up on the flat panel display again. You had pretty high level of orders. I think you have to go back to 2008 to get to those levels. And historically, those have been very lumpy. Can you give us a sense of what the yearly run rate are you thinking right now, this year and next year, in 600 to 700 kind of range? Or some help on that will be very good.

What we talked about in our financial model was to get to $1 billion run rate in the 2016 model. And we feel really good about the progress we're making. We also talked about, as these new technologies are introduced, the LTPS, metal oxide, organic LED, some of these flexible substrates, all of those are great for us from a TAM growth perspective. In some cases, as much as 2x larger TAM versus where we're at today. So the market, we have really good pull relative to the total available market. And also, our market share is growing pretty significantly in the Display business. So we're very optimistic. From a model standpoint, we're still on track with what we've talked about in the 2016 model. Around $1 billion is the -- is that goal.

And then one question on SSG. You talked a little bit about the memory growing 30% this year and maybe DRAM growing 5% this year. So is it fair to say that this year's growth primarily coming from memory and next year growth maybe more driven by foundry?

Well, so if you look at the wafer fab equipment spending in 2014, we're still -- we still have the view that it's up 10% to 20% versus 2013. The areas that are growing are foundry, the NAND flash and also DRAM. All of those areas are up a fair amount. In the foundry case, it's more a broadening of the customers that are spending. But all of those are up a fair amount. And our current view, based on what we're hearing from customers, is that 2015 is going to be a stronger year than 2014. We see still strong spending in the foundries in 2014 and incremental improvement in the memory business. But within that, you also have, as we talked about, major technology transitions that are happening in the foundry and in NAND flash that are very positive for us.

So, Mahesh, we're still guessing [indiscernible]. But I guess, in my opinion, as Gary said, they're all up. Probably the biggest percentage growth of those 3 is probably NAND.

All right, Mahesh, thanks for your question. And we'd like to thank everyone for joining us this afternoon. A replay of this call will be available on our website beginning at 5:00 p.m. Pacific Time today. Thank you for your continued interest in Applied Materials.

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.