Earnings Labs

Antero Midstream Corporation (AM)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 28, 2016

$21.69

-0.78%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to the Antero Midstream Partners LP First Quarter 2016 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. [Operator Instructions] After today’s presentation there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Chad Green, Vice President - Finance. Please go ahead.

Chad Green

Analyst

Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream's First Quarter 2016 investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operational highlights and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the home page of our website at www.anteromidstream.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call. Before we start our comments, I would first like to remind you that during this call, Antero Midstream management will make forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current judgments regarding factors that will impact the future performance of Antero Midstream and its sponsor, Antero Resources, and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Antero's control. Actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied, or forecast in such statements. Joining me today on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman and CEO, of Antero Resource and Antero Midstream; Glen Warren, President and CFO of Antero Resources and President of Antero Midstream; and Mike Kennedy, CFO of Antero Midstream. I will now turn the call over to Mike.

Michael Kennedy

Analyst

Thanks, Chad. And thank you everyone for listening into the call today. In my comments I'm going to highlight our first quarter results and provide additional details on AM’s increased 2016 guidance and growth opportunities. Paul will round out our comments by providing a brief update on AR's operational improvements and discuss Antero Resources outlook for 2016 all which benefits Antero Midstream. During our comments today we will periodically refer you to a handful of slides that are located in a separate conference call presentation on the home page of our website titled first quarter 2016 earnings call presentation. This is separate from our monthly investor presentation also located on our website. So please make sure you're viewing the correct slide deck during the call. Lastly during the call today we’ll commonly reference AM and AR in order to more easily make the distinction between Antero Midstream and Antero Resources respectively. First and foremost there was another strong quarter for Antero Midstream both operationally and financially. AM announced the first quarter distribution of $23.5 per unit a 31% increase year-over-year and 7% increase sequentially. The distribution marks our fifth consecutive distribution increase since the IPO in November of 2014. As detailed in our earnings release we are now guiding to the year-over-year distribution growth of 30% in 2016 the top end of the original guidance range, which equates to increases of a penny and a half during each quarter in 2016. The increase is driven by the $25 million increase in EBITDA and distributable cash flow guidance. The consistent top-tier distribution growth all while maintaining excess coverage, which came in at 1.6 times during the first quarter speaks to the stability and consistency of resulted AR and AM despite a decade low commodity price environment. As you can see on…

Paul Rady

Analyst

Thanks Mike. Today I’ll discuss the outlook for the remainder of 2016 at AR and the significant operational improvements that AR achieved during the first quarter. Looking ahead to the rest of 2016 at AR, as you can see on Slide number 7 titled continued measured growth. One of the distinguishing characteristics of the AR 2016 development plan is the ability to grow both production and cash flow in line with each other versus peers with declining cash flow profiles. As I'm sure you saw in the AR earnings release, AR increased production growth guidance to 17% in 2016 versus the prior guidance of 15%. The unique ability to grow both production and cash flow in this commodity price downturn is a direct result of AR's industry-leading hedge book and firm transportation portfolio allowing over 99% of our production in the first quarter to be directed towards favorably priced markets. As you can see on the bottom half of the page, the result is a stable leverage profile which again speaks to the strength and stability at AR which ultimately benefits AM. Now, let's move on to AR’s well cost improvements. As you can see on Slide number 8 entitled proven track record of well cost reductions, AR's current total well costs in the Marcellus has declined to $0.95 million per thousand feet of lateral or 32% decline compared to 2014. Similar to the Marcellus, AR continues to see improvements in the Utica with total well costs averaging $1.14 million per thousand feet of lateral or a 29% decline compared to 2014. The reduction in well costs is primarily driven by reduced service costs as legacy contracts continue to roll off or have been restructured and Antero has begun to realize lower spot rates as well as a number of…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We’ll now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. The first question comes from Brandon Blossman of Tudor, Pickering, Holt, & Company. Please go ahead.

Brandon Blossman

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen.

Paul Rady

Analyst

Good morning, Brandon.

Brandon Blossman

Analyst

Couple of quick ones. One is there any incremental color on kind of drivers of the Stonewall decision?

Paul Rady

Analyst

Any additional drivers.

Brandon Blossman

Analyst

Yes, what will take into account to make that decision?

Paul Rady

Analyst

Well, remember we have six-month options so we have the luxury I guess you could say of examining all the costs very thoroughly. And then we have a better picture also of projected volumes that are going through it both our own and third-party volume. So, having the six-month weight has been definitely a benefit. So those would be the things that we would consider as well as how does flow capacity look and options downstream of Stonewall but looks favorable at this point.

Brandon Blossman

Analyst

Okay. So, part of that is what projects look like six months from now in terms of getting done over the next two or three years?

Paul Rady

Analyst

Well, maybe I said that in a confusing way. So it’s not six months from now it's the project went into service on November 30 of last year. So that's - so we've been able to spend much of the last six months our option doesn't expire for another month or so. So we’d add the luxury of looking at costs and volumes for the last five plus months, that’s what I meant.

Brandon Blossman

Analyst

Okay. But downstream projects, correct?

Paul Rady

Analyst

Yes, as well as projects within, yes upstream as in what feeds into Stonewall as well as where Stonewall delivers to and how those projects look.

Brandon Blossman

Analyst

Fair enough. And then longer-dated question, any thoughts about third-party water volumes as we move kind of through the back end of this decade?

Paul Rady

Analyst

We model virtually no volumes. Our expectation at this point with us having such a dominant acreage position is that longer-term would be less than 5%. We've provided water to some of the other operators in the area and are happy to do it, but there's just not much activity at the moment and that is true both with fresh water delivery and then as our Clearwater Facility comes online before the end of next year that were open for business and would have room for a while for third-party volumes.

Brandon Blossman

Analyst

Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you very much.

Paul Rady

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Holly Stewart of Scotia Howard Weil. Please go ahead.

Paul Rady

Analyst

Hi, Holly.

Holly Stewart

Analyst

Good morning. How are you all?

Michael Kennedy

Analyst

Good morning.

Paul Rady

Analyst

Good morning, good.

Michael Kennedy

Analyst

So well, thanks.

Holly Stewart

Analyst

Great. So maybe just one quick one following up on the Stonewall option, have you said how much of that 15% would cost you?

Michael Kennedy

Analyst

Yes, we’ve talked, it’s around $45 million of capital, and it should be included in – with the additional authority stated 2016 capital budget.

Holly Stewart

Analyst

Okay, great. And then Mike maybe following up on your comments on just M&A opportunities and what's out there. We know there is a lot out there on the upstream side, just trying to get a sense for – on the midstream side as this infrastructure is a upstream company that are looking to divest the raised capital that midstream company that are just trying to right size the portfolio, and we heard console say these all the small gathering line in Monroe County a few days ago. So just trying to get a sense of what’s kind of out there in size and all that?

Michael Kennedy

Analyst

The comments we’re talking around is really around acreage around our areas in the Marcellus and Utica and just that Antero Midstream owns or it has all the acreage from Antero resources current and future acreage, so the Antero Midstream would get the opportunity to develop that and put in the low pressure, high pressure and compression associate without acreage.

Holly Stewart

Analyst

Okay, so this is sort of outside – that’s what you are looking at, okay. And then just one more on your comments on being sort of full-service midstream company, I’m assuming the processing plant construction is sort of being taken into account now. Can you remind us where you stand currently on both the Utica and Marcellus in terms of what type of processing capacity is still available for you?

Paul Rady

Analyst

Yes, so in the Marcellus there are six plants at the Sherwood site and we filled up just at five plants, so each plant is 200 million a day so we are right at about a Bcf a day and about to turn on the sixth plant it’s there and installed. So we’ve got that capacity now to be able to fill. And I think there is four plants at Seneca and so our 600 million a day can do the math and see that that is threefold plants were actually there's some people that have part of the first plant, so we are into the fourth plan, but that won’t be the constraint I think near-term that we have more than 100 million a day of ability to process more and so really it's 600 million a day lid that we have right now that that is our REX capacity both on the REX mainline as well as the so-called REX lateral that goes from the plant to the mainline. And so will be capped at 600 million a day until the Rover Pipeline comes in and then we can expand. And so that's probably a year away, energy transfer projects it to be mid-2017, and so as we get more confidence that that's the right date will start putting to together our development plan to fill it over the next year and a half or so beginning in mid-2017. And with that we will work on any more processing capacity that we might need in Seneca.

Holly Stewart

Analyst

Great, thanks guys.

Paul Rady

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Helen Ryoo of Barclays. Please go ahead.

Helen Ryoo

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. Your question regarding the you know you guys talked about using more water that's driving the guidance up curious is the – that is there any CapEx associated with more water and if so is that for by AR versus AM?

Paul Rady

Analyst

Yes, there is no additional CapEx to AM for the water is entirely borne by AR.

Helen Ryoo

Analyst

Okay. Great and then this kind of level of higher water usage is this a trend that you expect to go you know continue into the rest of the year and then potentially in 2017?

Paul Rady

Analyst

Probably it is what we're going to do through 2016 of that will give us a nice base of completed wells and so will see over time whether the upsides fracs are the perfect design or weather will go larger or downsize them a little bit, but at least through 2016 and probably first half of 17 anyway that's our plan is to go with these upsides fracs we believe it'll make a nice uptick but we always like to see the production to make sure.

Helen Ryoo

Analyst

Okay and then on the Stonewall project what's the return profile there and you know the contracting profile could you share a little bit more detail on what – are these back by long-term contract.

Paul Rady

Analyst

Yes, we have a page in the presentation outlines returns I think its 15% to 25% for regional pipelines. The contracting there is 900 million affirm sales to Antero Resources and then some additional firm from another third-party so there is a nice underpinning of firm sales and from capacity. So terrific return of 15% to 25% and some firm volumes are come with it.

Helen Ryoo

Analyst

All right. Great thank you very much.

Paul Rady

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Jeremy Tonet of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, this is [Jim] on for Jeremy. I guess I appreciate the detail for on third-party completions in the east, but can you add some detail on the volumetric outlook for the third-party dedication for the rest of 2016?

Paul Rady

Analyst

Well, right now what we due diligence we’ve done we’ve got all the $900 million obviously from Antero Resources in our valuation and what we’re working with is generally approximately 100 million a day of additional volumes for the year.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Gotcha. And I guess the Clearwater facility you will have third parties for the first two year’s. So what kind of upside is possibly there from additional volume?

Paul Rady

Analyst

While we provide a short on the presentation which is our outlook for our own produced and flow back water volume so you can see the room we have I think it goes in the third year actually there's bit of capacity for third parties and I think it will be a very attractive solution for other operators in the in the area for their produced flow backwaters to were excited about third-party opportunities which is having put that any of our projections.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

That’s helpful. Thank you.

Paul Rady

Analyst

Thank you. End of Q&A

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Green for any closing remarks.

Chad Green

Analyst

Thank you for joining us on our conference call today. Please reach out if you have any further questions. Thanks again.