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Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 28, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Allison Transmission's First Quarter 2015 Results Conference Call. My name is Melissa, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the prepared remark, the management team from Allison Transmission will conduct a question-and-answer session. Conference call participants will be given instructions at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Dave Graziosi, the company's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir. David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2015 results conference call. With me this morning is Larry Dewey, Allison Transmission's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. As a reminder, this conference call, webcast, and the presentation we're using this morning are available on our Investor Relations website, allisontransmission.com. A replay of this call will be available through May 5. As shown on page two of the presentation, many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, including those set forth in our first quarter 2015 results press release and our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014 and uncertainties and other factors, as well as general economic conditions. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we express today. In addition, as noted on page three of the presentation, some of our remarks today contain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the SEC. You can find reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Andrew Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys. David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Good morning. Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Andrew Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

So, when we look at your guide change to negative 4% to negative 8% from zero to negative 5%, trying to figure out how much of the change was your Energy business versus your non-North American On-Highway business. You guys had guided to 30% down in North American Off-Highway, and in the Putney Energy section of the Parts business. What do those numbers look like now? And then could you talk about your non-North American On-Highway business, what did you change there? David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: For the – I would say out of the guidance change midpoint, about three-quarters of it is tied to Energy, whether that be new units or aftermarket, Andy. So we're certainly focused on that, as Larry said in the prepared comments. The lack of visibility and uncertainty, given the amount of changes that we've seen in demand forecasts and, frankly, the frequency of them has led us down that path. That's the latest view that we have. The balance of the guide changes are, frankly, some refinement around a number of developments that we saw through the first quarter, including the timing of some of the Hybrid-Transit Bus system sales. And frankly, the balance of the book, the changes are relatively small, but the key focus for the guide revision is the energy space.

Andrew Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

And Dave, are you still thinking around flattish for your non-North American On-Highway business? Do you expect that 1Q would be a trough in that business? David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: I'd say overall, in terms of the guide for the year, we expect that more or less flat number, as we talked about in the original 2015 guide. I would say the timing expectation around sales as we see it develop for the balance of the year, Outside North America On-Highway, I would expect Q2 and Q3, given seasonality and a number of factors, to be the higher quarters out of the year, and a similar result, given what we see today, between Q1 and Q4.

Andrew Kaplowitz - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks, guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Good morning. David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Morning. Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Morning. Jerry David Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Dave, can you talk about how – why the pricing actions that you've taken have been, in terms of the range of products, any mix impact that we should think about of Energy coming down, is that where you had been pushing pricing more aggressively? And then, maybe more color on the North America Parts decline, is that Energy or is that Truck? David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Your questions there, the pricing moves that we certainly, frankly have been taking right along. We talked about some of this in the second half of last year and it would run rate into this year, but the majority of the selling price benefit that we saw in Q1 year-over-year is really tied to North America. A significant portion of that is in the On-Highway product portfolio and then, a number of other changes with the balance of products, but really focused around North America. In terms of aftermarket levels and thinking about what we see there, certainly the majority, if you look at the overall first quarter results, it was a little bit surprising to us, as we entered into 2015, as we got through more or less the second month of the quarter. You started thinking about some of the run rates that we were seeing in the Off-Highway business, frankly, were pretty significant in terms of drop-offs, or at least…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question. Jamie L. Cook - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi. Good morning. I guess two questions. One, you mentioned in your press release, initiatives to cut cost in programs. If you could just provide a little more color on what actions that you're taking to be proactive and what's implied in margins as it relates to cost savings? And then I guess my second question is, you mentioned Energy is a big headwind, in particular on the fracking or Off-Highway side. Are you concerned or are you seeing any Energy headwinds – I guess, indirect Energy headwinds? Are you seeing any of that, are you concerned any of that could hit your North American On-Highway business, which has been fairly resilient? Thanks. Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Let me answer the second one and then come back to the first. On the Off-Highway piece, there is some On-Highway product that goes into support activity. We think we've got a reasonable view of that through the forecast that we have coming in from the On-Highway OEMs. PACCAR, for example, says less than 10% of their business. So it becomes a net out against the overall business. I don't think we've – I think the net numbers we're looking at in the North America RDS space, it is up, as we indicated in the first quarter. Certainly, probably down for the oil field activity, but up in other spaces. So I think we feel pretty good about that. The OEMs do move their forecast around, of course. But we feel, I think, pretty good about that. I'm sorry, the first question again was? ... Jamie L.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan Chase. Please proceed with your question.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan Chase. Please proceed with your question.

Yeah. Hi. Good morning guys. David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Good morning. Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan Chase. Please proceed with your question.

Can you give us the specific revised guidance that you're giving us for Off-Highway North America and Parts? You were guiding NAFTA Off-Highway down 30%, what are you guiding now? Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: For the North America Off-Highway, we expect the 2015 net sales, midpoint reduction of about 37%; that compared to the 30% that we were talking earlier.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan Chase. Please proceed with your question.

And in Parts, you were guiding down 5%, what are you guiding now? David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Closer, with the Off-Highway change to down about, midpoint, in the 12% range. And the important point, Ann, there is, in terms of timing, when you think about it year-over-year, that's more of an impact in the second half of the year, as you know. With the aftermarket ramp last year, the way it built was much heavier in the second half of last year. So obviously, much tougher comps as we get into the second half of this year.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan Chase. Please proceed with your question.

Great. Thank you, that's very helpful. And then, just on the non-operating items, we seem to be fairly wrong on our interest expense. How should we think about some of those non-operating line items, both interest expense and cash interest expense, going forward? David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Well I guess the good news is, we continue to simplify our debt structure. So, with the refinancing of the 2019 notes, which we expect to be completed by the middle of May, we're only left with the two tranches of the terminal in the B2 and the B3. So that really comes down to taking some view on 30-day LIBOR, if you will, on the B2 tranche; the B3 has a 1% LIBOR floor, so – and it's 1% amortization annually. So I think hopefully, that's much easier for everybody to take a look at and try to model, from both an expense and cash side. As you know, with our hedge accounting, we do not apply per se hedge accounting to the LIBOR swap, so that's going to roll through on a mark-to-market basis quarter-to-quarter and, frankly, the only way to model that is to, again, take a view on LIBOR. But, I think you've seen, from a mark-to-market perspective, unless there's a much more drawn-out view of yield curves at this point, there shouldn't be that many changes, frankly, on the mark-to-market side. But again, we'll see how that rolls through the second half. But interest guide, as we think about cash interest expense this year, roughly $100 million is the way we're thinking about that for 2015.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan Chase. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, very helpful. Thank you. And just, more big picture question on the TC10. That product, to the best of our knowledge, has only been released with Navistar. How is that new product being accepted by other OEMs? Do you expect to be in the list book this year, next year, if you could just give us some color on the rollout of that product? David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Well, I don't consider a fish caught until it's filleted and cooking on the grill, so any comments on discussions we're having with OEMs is probably a bit premature. I would say we are obviously in dialogue, and you're aware, Ann, I'm sure with your knowledge in the industry, that there's actually another OEM who's not released it yet, but it's part of their demo fleet, so they're showing it to customers. We've had, I want to say, over 300 customer fleets now that have purchased, and a number of them have made repeat purchases. They're in that small numbers, that arithmetic progression. It would be fair to say, it's been a slower slog than what we have intended, but we continue to get positive reviews. The fuel economy numbers are extremely strong, that people are reporting in actual use, not just test data, and so that's a big plus in terms of the customer reaction. We've had good performance of the product relative to uptime. That's been good. In fact, I'm only aware of one situation, and we've got a couple of folks up there trying to understand why that one? They had a couple vehicles that operated a little differently, we think it's the vehicle setup and we'll get that squared around, but other than that, it's been beautiful in terms of the performance in uptime across the 300-and-some fleets. Yeah. I think it's actually 136 discrete customers are running it in terms of purchase and prior to that and continuing, of course, we've had about 130 fleet tests. So again, very positive experience with the product, both in terms of the performance as well as the fuel economy results.

Ann P. Duignan - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan Chase. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Thank you, guys. I'll get back in line.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question. Nicole DeBlase - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Yeah. Good morning, guys. David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Morning. Nicole DeBlase - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: So my first question is on the oil and gas business. You guys mentioned that you saw a significant drop-off towards the end of the quarter and into 2Q. So I'm curious, have you seen stabilization at all, or does deterioration continue so far? Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I think what we've got forecast in to our numbers, based on what we've seen here in the last month, is we think it's kind of stabilized, albeit at a fairly low level. And until they sort through the economics of the oil pricing and stabilize the overall system, we think that's where we're going to be at. So we haven't yet predicted the upturn. Nicole DeBlase - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay, okay. Got it. That makes sense. And I apologize if I missed this, it's been a busy morning. But your SG&A came in a lot lower this quarter, you guys talked about a positive warranty impact. Is that sustainable into the second quarter, or would you say that SG&A is artificially low in 1Q versus the rest of the year? David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: We had, as you mentioned, a number of things with the first quarter. Warranty expense was in fact favorable, if you adjusted for the dual power inverter module extended coverage reduction. Again, I would think about SG&A for the balance of the year in, call it, the $80 million range per quarter. Nicole DeBlase - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Okay. Perfect. David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: That's reasonably flat. And frankly, I think the other piece of the story with Engineering, if you adjust – think about the first quarter of 2014 with the technology license, I would expect, at this point, Engineering to run in the, call it, $24 million range per quarter for the balance of the year as well. Nicole DeBlase - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Thanks. That's helpful. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ian Zaffino with Oppenheimer & Company. Please proceed with your question. Ian A. Zaffino - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Hi. Good morning. David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Good morning. Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Ian A. Zaffino - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): On the defense side, the outlook, is that $100 million run rate for the year the right number to be looking at, or how do we think about the defense piece of it? David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: As you know, the largest program for the wheeled side – again, two sectors within our defense business. The wheeled side is the FMTV program with Oshkosh, that is coming to some level of an end, per se. That's certainly something we start to think about for post-2015. As you know as well, the JLTV is rumored to be up for award in the third quarter of this year if they hold to schedules and assuming no protest, et cetera. So, I think the long answer on the wheeled side is we would expect transitioning from 2015 into 2016, overall units to be down, I think, slightly, depending again on the run rate on the JLTV and if there's any adjustments in the end of the FMTV contract. The track side is still largely tied to the Abrams. There is discussion with the Abrams around the engineering change proposal timing, which originally had been set up for FY 2019, that they're, I guess, looking at now moving that to FY 2017. So I think that's on our, certainly, view of things. But I would say it's a…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Gilardi with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Yeah. Good morning. Thank you. I apologize if any of these have been asked already. Just got cut off a little bit there, but did you cut your outlook for North America On-Highway this year? David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: No, no.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

You didn't. Okay. And then, just the pricing gains that favorably impacted your gross margin. So you got some pricing in North America On-Highway, but are you having to give it back in the rest of your portfolio, particularly in oil and gas? My question, are you seeing pricing pressure in Energy-related markets or any of your other markets? Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We – certainly there's been a lot of dialogue, and I've seen some of the articles out there. What we've done is, as we've worked to enter long-term supply agreements, we've focused on growth and providing incentives for growth. So against the base volumes, no. Against incremental volumes, we would provide a level of incentive and encouragement against the higher volumes.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Got it. Thanks. And then Larry, just wanted to get your general thoughts. I mean outside of North America On-Highway, you just don't have any growth in the portfolio. I mean obviously, the end markets right now are very, very tough. But anything particular Allison is doing to stimulate growth, or just to support prior demand levels, that you'd like to talk about, or do you feel like outside of North America, it's just a matter of cost-cutting, continuing to right-size the business? Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, we're certainly not striking the colors in terms of the growth, let's be clear on that. We are being very clear-eyed relative to what we're spending the money on, to make sure that it's going to items that should yield results. The classic example is Russia, where we're in a much better position with the releases in that we had, and of course the geopolitical situation evolved as it has; that's very disappointing. And I would say that I would give our guys positive marks there. I think we're starting to see some traction in China truck, got a long way to go, but we're starting to see some – I think, some upside there. China bus is going to be challenging as we work to maintain our share, and you've seen some of the share statistics, and we've quoted them in the past. Very strong positioning there. But with the change in the euro, it's going to – if we're going to maintain that share, we're going to go head-to-head with folks, and that's going to be a little bit of price there. But we're not backing off any, in terms of the opportunity there. India is another example where, it's been some tough slogging, but now that some of that's freed up, you can start seeing some of the results that the team there is starting to generate, albeit lower volumes, but growing. So I think the fundamentals are there. We need to do a better job of executing and we need to go faster and harder. And so that, that certainly is our focus. There's – the sales leadership team is – come together, in terms of what our best practice is. I've been part of some of that review. Mike Headly, our Senior Vice President, has been leading that, along with each of the managing directors, and it's really a question of execution, faster and better.

Ross P. Gilardi - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Great. Thank you and, Dave, valiant effort there on the one question. But yeah, just on actually, Larry, on the back of that comment about Europe – or Europe competitors. Within the On-Highway business, obviously Europe being the largest, can you just update us in terms of one, I guess, being the competitive dynamics, i.e., just given ZF being a European-based competitor, how it's transitioning there in terms of the competitive landscape? But also, I guess related to that, there's been a bit more positive commentary from some of the truck and bus makers in core Western Europe. How is that – has your outlook changed within that segment overall, in terms of just Europe directly? Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I think that, overall in Europe, we've got some uptake on the truck side primarily – bus side. And that's where, really where ZF and Voith also, another German transmission supplier, automatic supplier. They operate almost exclusively on the bus side, and it's a matter of, where are the releases, where they have the releases, they sell when they sell those buses, and where we have the releases, we sell in those buses. The horse we've been riding, with some success, has been Turkey. We've had some good domestic sales there, picking up here in the first quarter, and a strong year forecast there. Those OEMs are also coming in to Western Europe, because they provide, from their perspective, a quality product at a lower price point. So that – we have seen some success in that space, but it's primarily Europe – I mean, primarily truck in Europe, that we would be seeing the opportunities. And as those prospects have improved somewhat, although, every time somebody says the word Greece, everybody gets all nervous. But, as those prospects have improved, so have our sales forecasts for the applications, where we're well accepted.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Okay, and – got it. And, Larry, just on the – you mentioned in passing earlier that, related to Energy in North America, that I guess you – the distributor working down inventory, and you wanting to go direct. I'm curious, is that related – I guess one, what's the motivation for that, and is that at all related – you had mentioned earlier that, in terms of the transition of your product line – is some of that kind of interrelated, in terms of maybe the older product line, or maybe just a little bit more background, to the extent... Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Sure. I think I've got – I got apples and oranges crossed here. So, the product line that we've described in the Off-Highway space, there has been no change in our channels relative to the Off-Highway. The situation I described with the inventory – the one-time inventory reduction at distributors, as we have established direct relationships, have been for North America On-Highway transmission rebuilders. There's a couple of large ones and it was better, from a customer perspective, including our connectivity with that market, to establish them as essentially direct dealers, which is a mechanism we have within our overall channel strategy, and we went from a dealer underneath a distributor to direct to Allison, but that was for On-Highway.

Tim W. Thein - Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Analyst · Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. Thank you for clearing that up. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vishal Shah with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Chad Dillard - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Hi. This is Chad Dillard on for Vishal. Just wanted to go back to your comments last quarter about the Off-Highway Parts business being down 30%, just given the weakened expected momentum in Energy, how do you think about that number now? Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, we've taken the North America Off-Highway aftermarket from – I think we had guided down about 28% going into the year. We've taken that down now, for that sub-segment of the aftermarket, down 39%. So clearly, we feel even less positive than we did at the beginning of the year as we watch what people are doing with the equipment. Obviously, with the reduction in activity, very logical thing on their part. If something needs repair, you pull the one that's idle out and put in place and save your money until such time as you need all of the equipment back to work. So, that will set up a situation similar to what we saw some time ago, where you start seeing the Parts business pick up just prior to the New Unit business picking up.

Chad Dillard - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

And then, just back to your comment on the Hybrid-Propulsion potentially being weaker than expected, how should we think about that segment throughout the rest of the year? Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think that's one where we talked about at the beginning of the year. We had talked about 13% net sales point reduction year-over-year, and I think we've taken that midpoint's reduction up to 29% year-over-year. And again, that's – as folks have looked at their funding, they look at the emissions, the capabilities of the new engines, and frankly, some of the things that we've done with our current products, whether it's some of the FuelSense activities we've done. We've got our first sales of our new xFE models, the variants of our current On-Highway products that offer significantly improved – it's a new gearing configuration that we've come up with that offers significant fuel economy benefits. So, as folks look at the value trade-offs, they've decided that, rather than go Hybrid, they'll go another direction, whether it's CNG or conventional diesel with the improved calibrations or the improved product configuration, the xFE. We get the sale, but it's not in the Hybrid space.

Chad Dillard - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. I'll jump back in queue.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rob Wertheimer with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Robert C. Wertheimer - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, good morning. I hope I didn't miss it, but do you quantify the currency impact on revenue and profit in both the quarter and in the outlook, and specifically also, just on outside North America On-Highway? Thanks. David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: The FX for first quarter year-over-year on sales was roughly $2 million, so really not much there, and with our assumption for the balance of the year, again, it's – I would say, relatively de minimis in the grand scheme of things. As we've talked before, we pursue a natural hedge position, so we're actually slightly short euros for the full year in the handful of millions range, and we're also short, interestingly enough, in Japanese yen. So I think we're positioned there. I think the broader issue for foreign exchange this year, relative to the euro, is as Larry mentioned, some of our European-based competition, but the full year impact from just a translation perspective, it's relatively de minimis.

Robert C. Wertheimer - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst · Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Perfect. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Larry De Maria with William Blair. Please proceed with your question. Larry T. De Maria - William Blair & Co. LLC: Okay. Thanks. Good morning. David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Good morning. Larry T. De Maria - William Blair & Co. LLC: Just – hey. First capital allocation goes – hopefully I didn't miss this, but couple quick things. The 2019 debt refi that you're working on for May, what kind of impact can that have, I guess, in the post-2015 world, positive or negative? And secondly, the share buyback, starting off relatively slow. While – where do we get more aggressive, is it a price you're looking at, $30 or lower, something like that, or should we just consider you guys starting off slow, dipping your toe in, and we should be more aggressive as the year goes on? David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: On the 2019 notes refinanced, which we expect again to complete by the middle of next month. If you assume just flat, no change in LIBOR, which happens to be a 1% floor on term-loan B3, which we use to refinance the notes, that annualizes to about a $17 million reduction in cash interest expense. So, the guide that I talked about earlier, in terms of roughly $100 million, incorporates the completion of the refinancing, again, by the middle of next month. On the share repurchase, as you know, we have a $0.5 billion authorization from the board. The board has certainly a view on valuation, and we're executing against that authorization. Larry T. De Maria - William Blair & Co. LLC: So is essentially, at a certain price, you step in more, as opposed to – if the price is at $32, $33 for example, should we consider you guys buying a lot less stock, and if it's lower, you buying a lot more? Is that the way we should interpret it? David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: I would interpret it as, that we have a $0.5 billion authorization that we have every intention of completing by the end of next year. Larry T. De Maria - William Blair & Co. LLC: You will. Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ted Grace with Susquehanna. Please proceed with your question.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, gentlemen. David S. Graziosi - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer: Good morning. Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hey.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please proceed with your question.

Larry, I was wondering if you could just take a step back, pull out your crystal ball, and give us your longer-term outlook for the markets? And you've talked – you've obviously updated 2015, you've given us some pieces of 2016. But if we were to look a little beyond that, where do you see the North America cycle? How do you think oil and gas progresses over the next few years? Do you see it coming back, do you see it staying depressed for a while? How do you think about Europe On-Highway? Just – it would be great to get a longer-term framework for you, an update on that end. Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. North America On-Highway, I think we're – there have been some folks that have predicted the peak, I think they're talking about Class 8 line-haul. Certainly, if you look at the longer-term averages in our relevant markets, end markets, the Class 8 Straight Truck, the Class 5 through 7 Medium-Duty Truck and Bus, there's clearly some runway left. Not huge spikes in terms of the year-over-year, if you look at some of the ACT numbers, but good, solid sustained growth. And when you layer on top of that some of the share gains that we have been getting, certainly in some markets – school bus, fire truck – it's going to be tough to improve share there, given where we're at, essentially the whole of those vocations. But when you look at what we've done in construction and across Medium-Duty, some of the other things we've got going, I think that gives us some good runway there. Outside North America, we really have to drive the truck piece in China. And so there is an intense focus…

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. And then the other thing I was hoping to ask, and I want to ask this very respectfully. The insider sales, it would just be helpful, I think, to a lot of investors if you could just walk through what's been driving that? I think we all appreciate the company's history as a private company, and even the last three years where they've been very restrained. But could you just give us somewhat of a framework, how to think about share sales and what the key factors there have been, just so we can appreciate those numbers? Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Yeah. I think you've touched on a couple of things. If you look at the timing and the runway of the initial grants, and they were a one-time grant that had a 10-year horizon. We are now closing in on eight years of that 10-year horizon. So, one would anticipate that rather than wait until the very end, and everyone's free to make their own choices, that folks are going to – they're going to be in a fairly – especially since it was not public until nearly five years in. And then, if you just look at the timing of the secondary's folks, we're pretty much tied up. I think most of the trades I'm aware of occurred on 10b5-1 plans that were filed some time ago. I would also say, and I know this will get a bit philosophical, but let me try it on anyway. When you think about the organization, most of the leadership – and I guess I'll just speak for myself, I won't speak for others. We started, and it's hard to know from a personal standpoint what folks motivations are, but it comes down…

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. That is super helpful. I really appreciate the elaboration. So would it be fair to say this is just, personal financial diversification is the driving factor behind your actions? Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes.

Ted Grace - Susquehanna Financial Group LLLP

Analyst · Susquehanna. Please proceed with your question.

Okay. That's great. Best of luck this quarter, guys. Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alex Potter with Piper Jaffray. Please proceed with your question. Alexander Eugene Potter - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Hi, guys. Was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the dual-clutch transmissions that are making their way into the market, into the On-Highway market recently. Just wondering if you can comment on where you see them gaining traction, if anywhere, and in those segments where they seem to be targeted, what Allison's primary pitch or response is? Lawrence E. Dewey - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, we actually have changed our style a little bit. We used to kind of sit back and let people make their claims and, as my dad used to say, let water find its own level. We have, as we've looked at it, and we've been able to get our hands on a DCT equipped vehicle and do a little testing of it for a period of time. And we've been able to identify perhaps some gaps in some of the claims, and so we had prepared – and it was available at the NTEA, and then also the Mid-America Truck Show, just kind of a summary of all of the various attributes. I think it would be fair to say, certainly, as an unproven product, there's some things. And as they go forward, they'll have some track record there. The fuel economy claims are rather interesting because, as we tested it against SAE-type cycles, we actually found that it did not achieve fuel savings. In fact, actually, it was kind of the opposite, and it would appear the only way we can figure it out, how they might have gotten their numbers, was using a 2005 Allison calibration, which of…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.