ALPKF (ALPKF) Q3 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary
AL
ALPKF (ALPKF)
Q3 2026 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 22, 2026
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ALPKF Q3 2026 Earnings Call Key Takeaways
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ALPKF Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Hello, everyone. We appreciate your participation in today's webcast and your continued interest in Alpek as we present our third quarter results. I am Juan Diego Sieler, recently appointed Investor Relations Officer. Here with me today are Jorge Young, our CEO Rodrigo Prieto, our CFO. Before we begin, please note today's discussion will include forward looking statements. Based on current expectations and assumptions. Subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially Alpek undertakes no obligation to update these statements. We express our financial results in U. S. Dollars unless otherwise specified. For your convenience, this webcast is being recorded and will be available in the Investors section of our website. Regarding today's agenda, Jorge will begin with a quarter overview, Second, Rodrigo will discuss our financial performance in greater detail. Afterwards, Jorge will delve into our revised guidance figures and expectations for the remainder of the year. And finally, we will move on to Q&A. Jorge, I will turn the call over to you.
JC
Jorge Pedro Young Cerecedo
Management
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. During the third quarter, for teams, once again delivered strong execution responding quickly, evolving customer needs, and maintaining high operating rates. Our focus on operational efficiency commercial agility, and supply chain flexibility enabled us to adapt to market conditions resulting in another exceptional quarter. As a result, we outperformed our comparable EBITDA expectations for the quarter Building on our year-to-date performance and updated outlook for the last quarter of 2026, we are again raising our full year guidance which I will discuss in more detail later in the call. For leverage ratio, improved to 1.8x. Primarily reflecting higher last 12 months EBITDA. Our local for local production strategy and constant pursuit to strengthen our competitive position continue to be fundamental pillars for Alpek's success. Our global footprint and regional approach to key markets including The United States, Mexico, Brazil, among other, has enabled us to provide reliable long term supply and service to our customers as a domestic supplier of choice. This has been particularly important amid continued global trade disruptions and raw material shortages. Mainly in Asia. As the conflict in the Middle East extends, PET resin in Asia is facing reduced availability of key feedstocks and lower operating rates. Supporting reference margins above our original expectations. In parallel, elevated ocean freight rates have made imports less competitive, further benefiting regional suppliers like Alpek. These dynamics reinforce the importance of the actions we have taken over the last several years to make our company more competitive and resilient. Our performance reflects the progress we have made in executing Alpek's long term strategy. Over the past few years, we have taken deliberate actions to reinforce our competitiveness, improve the quality of our portfolio, and reinforce our financial position. Let me highlight some of the initiatives underway across our 2 strategic pillars supported by financial flexibility. First, strengthening our core business. We have continued to optimize our global footprint. Directing production towards our most competitive and integrated facilities. While providing cost efficiency. Since 2023, we have reduced installed capacity by 15%. Including fiber's capacity. And headcount by 29%. While maintaining similar volume levels. This demonstrates the effectiveness of our linear operating model. At the same time, we continue identifying opportunities to improve performance within the organization. Earlier this month, we hosted our annual innovation awards where teams from across Alpek presented projects to our executive team. This will focus on cost reductions product improvements, business integrations, etcetera. We currently have more than 40 projects requiring minimal or no CapEx. Representing over 20 million of potential incremental EBITDA. These projects reflect a culture of continuous improvement throughout the organization. Second pillar growing and evolving our product portfolio. We are selectively investing in different. Differentiated applications and differentiated products that offer higher margins. Initiatives include expanding our thermoforming capacity in Saudi Arabia, increasing our copolymer production in the polypropylene business, and venturing into expandable polystyrene extrusion in North America. These investments among several others in our pipeline support a more resilient portfolio over the long term. We are also pursuing capital efficient growth opportunities by leveraging our assets capabilities, and customers' relationships. To unlock incremental value. As an example, in our energy commercialization business, we continue expanding into electricity in Mexico and have begun supplying natural gas in Brazil. Third, financial flexibility is a key enabler of our strategy. Even though our leverage level is now 2.0x, our focus remains on generating cash flow and further reducing debt. This includes working capital management. Disciplined CapEx, and progressing asset monetization. These actions support our objective of maintaining a strong balance sheet while preserving financial flexibility to pursue attractive growth opportunities as they arise. With that, I will turn the call over to Rodrigo to discuss our financial results in greater detail.
Rodrigo Prieto Treviño: Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Let me go into our third quarter results. Market conditions remain supportive. Although PET reference margins moderated from their second-quarter peak. Average Chinese integrated PET reference margins were $213 per ton. Down 31% sequentially yet still 59% above 2025 levels. Ocean freight rates to South America also remained elevated averaging $321 per ton. Up 43% quarter on quarter and 74% year over year. Taking a look at our earnings, comparable EBITDA totaled $276 million down 18% quarter-over-quarter, yet doubling when compared to the same period last year. Reported EBITDA also saw a significant year-over-year improvement of 161%. Totaling 303 million. This included a $27 million inventory adjustment primarily associated with higher raw material prices. Volume for the quarter remained solid at 1.17 million tons. Flat sequentially and up 4% on an annual basis. Reflecting solid demand levels and continued commercial and operating execution strength. Looking at our business segments, polyester achieved a comparable EBITDA of $205 million increasing 134% year-over-year. Plastics and Chemicals delivered comparable EBITDA of $62 million. 32% above the prior year. The remaining $9 million comes from the Others, or emerging business, segment. Primarily consisting of our energy commercialization. Turning to free cash flow. We generated $5 million in operating free cash flow. As higher reported EBITDA was offset by a larger than anticipated investment of $226 million in net working capital. Driven mainly by the higher pricing environment. Particularly paraxylene reaching multiyear highs. CapEx totaled $46 million, including $30 million in strategic CapEx. During the quarter, net debt increased 3% to $1.72 billion. Primarily reflecting the investment in net working capital and, to a lesser extent, payments to minority shareholders. At the same time, our leverage ratio improved to 1.8x from 2.2 times. Primarily driven by higher last 12 months EBITDA and now below our target range of 2.0x to 2.5x. Year to date, we have $222 million in operating free cash flow. And reduced our net debt by $123 million. Our improved leverage position reflects the progress we have made in strengthening our balance sheet and reinforces our commitment to financial discipline. Looking ahead, we expect to further reduce net debt in the fourth quarter through continued cash generation disciplined capital allocation, and debt prepayments. I also like to highlight the important milestone for Alpek. During the quarter, we rejoined the IPC index, which consists of the top 35 public companies. Based on market cap, and trading liquidity listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange. We believe this will further enhance our visibility among investors and contribute to long term shareholder value creation. I will turn the call back to Jorge to discuss our guidance and outlook.
JC
Jorge Pedro Young Cerecedo
Management
As we look to the remainder of the year, we are expecting PET reference margins and ocean freights to moderate. While remaining well above 25 levels. Based on our year to date performance and updated market assumptions, we are again raising our full year 2026 guidance Our key assumptions for the remaining months are Chinese PET reference margins, at $225 per ton Polypropylene reference margins at $0.17 per pound. And ocean freights to South America at $100 per ton. On this basis, we are raising our comparable EBITDA to $990 million. For 2026, we continue to expect operating free cash flow in the range of $300 million to $350 million and net debt reduction between $200 million to $250 million by year end. And this is considering some moderation in the raw material pricing environment. This continued focus on cash generation and deleveraging will further enhance our financial flexibility, supporting disciplined capital allocation and selective investment in future growth opportunities. The remaining guidance figures are unchanged As a reminder, our guidance does not include potential upside from non strategic asset sales. As we approach 2027, the actions we have taken to optimize our footprint improve efficiency, and to strengthen our financial position have made Alpek more competitive and better positioned to navigate changing market conditions. Our long term strategy remains focused on leveraging our global capabilities and footprint. To deliver consistent operational performance while reinforcing our position as a reliable domestic supplier. While industry conditions will continue to evolve, our priorities remain clear We will continue focusing on reliable operations, serving our customers, managing costs, and allocating capital with discipline. I am very confident in our team's ability to execute our strategy and continue creating sustainable value for our shareholders. And finally, I would like to thank our employees across Alpek for their continued dedication and commitment. Their agility and ability to find solutions, in a rapidly changing environment having instrumental to our performance this year.
OP
Operator
Operator
We will now begin the Q&A portion of today's webcast. Please use the raise hand feature. We will call on participants in the order they appear. You may also submit your questions to the Q&A function at any time. We will do our best to address as many questions as possible. Our first question comes from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank. Ben, please go ahead.
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Ben Isaacson
Analyst · Scotiabank. Ben, please go ahead
Thank you very much. Can you hear me okay? Yes. Great. So I have 2 questions. The first question is on leverage. You hit, 1.8x trailing EBITDA leverage in Q3. But on a mid cycle basis, it must be higher than that. So can you talk about where do you think your leverage is on a mid cycle basis? And if it is above your target range of 2.0x to 2.5x, how does that impact your capital allocation for Q4 and in 2027? and I will ask the second question after. Thank you.
JC
Jorge Pedro Young Cerecedo
Management
Ben, yes, thanks for your for your questions. Obviously, we will need to go into a deep discussion on what is the mid-cycle EBITDA. As we approach 2027, our goal is also to reduce our absolute level of debt. So that the company has additional flexibility. In a mid cycle EBITDA, if you put a number in between 2025, 2027 and 2026, in that ballpark. We should be in a range or below range. that is that is what we see as the first part of your question. Okay. As we Yes. As we approach 27, again, we want to see clear progress not only on the leverage, but also on the absolute production of level. And that will give us the, you know, the tools and the flexibility expedite, you know, an interesting pipeline of projects that we have and that will bring further shareholder value. Thank you for that.
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Ben Isaacson
Analyst · Scotiabank. Ben, please go ahead
And for my second, and follow-up question, I believe on. In both segments, you tend to lock in a proportion of your volume at a fixed or fairly stable margins. And given what is happening in both sides of the business right now, because of, the Middle East conflict, how. Can you give us some understanding as to how do you expect those contracted margins to look in 2027 versus 2026 or 2025 just so we can, have some magnitude.
JC
Jorge Pedro Young Cerecedo
Management
Yes. When it is a it is a it is a work that we still have in progress because as you clearly know, we are just beginning or period where we normally have those discussions and agreements with the customers. We would expect the margin certainly to be higher than 2025 compared to 2026. It depends Right? I mean, in many cases, we ended up agreeing to a price as the year began and as the conflict in The Middle East was arising. So those were very favorable to us in 2026. Some of those might moderate a little bit in 2027. Another important chunk of our volume had margins for 2026 agreed before the conflict. But for which the customers were very supportive of Alpek. And some renegotiations and adjustments to more current conditions for us to be able to, you know, do what we needed to do to find all the raw materials and deliver the product reliably. So those contracts also capture some adjustments, some increases in 2026 But those will likely keep further increasing in 2027. And at the end, it is going to be a mix that we still need to go through. Again, some will moderate, Some will have other you know, some level of increase. What we expect to see in 2027 is a very strong volume. Similar to 2020. In 2027, similar to 2026. I think the momentum and the appreciation from the customer base for the local supplier remains high. The conflict is still uncertain. You know, we are planning you know. Or planning is to assuming the conflict will resolve and condition will get challenging. But the uncertainty remains. And, again, we are making very good progress on aligning on the volumes. The margin is also an important variable to complete all those agreements. But the, you know, the progress so far indicates to us that it is it is going to be a very good year in volume, and the margin, you know, will be further refined. I would say, at good conditions for us. Much better than 2025 for sure. Compared to 2026, we are still working on that. But, again, it should be you know, a very good position for us with our with our key customers. And new customers that we brought you know, to the table in 2026. Thank you very much. that is great. More to come when we, you know, obviously present our guidance early next year. Thank you.
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Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Thiago Casqueiro with Morgan Stanley. Thiago, please go ahead.
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Thiago Casqueiro
Analyst · Morgan Stanley. Thiago, please go ahead
Hey. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. My first 1 is on working capital. I mean, we have seen quite a significant increase in working capital over the past 2 quarters, as prices moved higher. But as pricing conditions start to normalize, how much of that working capital should we expect to be released over the next few quarters? And if I may, I would like to make the second 1 now and then you guys can answer both. The second 1 is more on the asset sales. I recall that this was, initially a pretty important part of the deleveraging story. And Jorge mentioned, today in the call that asset monetization remains 1 of the key pillars. But with market conditions, improving, you have managed to bring leverage down much faster than initially expected. So given, how things have changed, are you reconsidering the sale of some of those assets? I mean, could it make more sense now to actually keep some of them? And then if I may just an additional point in this question, are you still targeting the $30 million to $50 million in asset sales for this year? Thank you.
JC
Jorge Pedro Young Cerecedo
Management
Yes, Thiago. On your first question on working capital, I think it all depends on when you look at our working capital, we look it in 2 ways. The absolute level, of course, because that goes into the cash flow. But, also, our days of working capital we have an issue with our receivables with our payables, or with our inventory days. And when you look at our numbers, inventory days. I mean, working capital days are pretty much where we expect them to be. And we are disciplinary inventories and we have, again, receivables and payables exactly as we had planned them over the year. Right? And so the only issue is unit prices. And unit prices have increased significantly because of the oil increases And in some of our feedstocks, further increases, like paraxylene. And it is a matter of when those prices moderate. Yes. We will we will recover the working capital. If they recover to a level, right, close to where they were before the conflict, which will recover a significant if not all, of that working capital investment. So it is. it is very much related to the to the unit prices. You know, we do expect, again, some moderation, right, eventually. And a recovery of that working capital. But just want to be very clear is the issue at hand for us is unit prices. Not days of working capital nor, you know, excessive issues in our collections or payments whatsoever. So that is on the working capital. So it is it is a matter of when the absolute prices fall and to what level and it. it will pretty much go in proportion to that. Asset sales that continues to be a high priority for us. We are still expecting to close this year between $30 million and $50 million. We have progress on some of those asset sales. Year to date is about 14. And the fact that we have now lower leverage does not slow down our efforts in disposing of those assets because we shall label those assets non core assets. So there is no need to keep them at all. And I think it is. We are decided to sell. You are you are talking about pieces of land. And so forth. And we will probably have, in addition to the goal this year, perhaps you know, another important objective next year to dispose of further nonstrategic assets to continue the momentum. And, again, as we have mentioned this in previous calls, we are gonna take more time to prepare a piece of land in Monterey to dispose of those assets perhaps in a couple of years but at a much higher expected value than what we could realize today at a faster pace. So that continues unchanged and with high priority. Very helpful. Thank you. You are welcome.
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Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Leonardo Marcondes with Bank of America. Leonardo, please go ahead.
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Leonardo Marcondes
Analyst · Bank of America. Leonardo, please go ahead
Hi, Jorge, Rodrigo, Juan, and Alejandra. Thank you for picking my questions. I have also 2 from my end here. The first 1 is regarding the spreads I mean, PT spreads have come down from their mid April peak. Right? But they remain above prewar levels. Right? So my question is, do you see room for further narrowing in 2027, or do you expect spreads to stay above prewar levels? And what are the main drivers behind your view on that? My second question is regarding volumes. I mean, Jorge has already discussed a bit about the strong volume this year. Right? But I mean, how much of this reflects, like, a stronger demand and how much reflects market share gains as imported products have become less competitive? Thank you very much.
JC
Jorge Pedro Young Cerecedo
Management
Yes. Thank you for your questions, Leo. I think the question of spreads, I mean, is you know, it is a very good question that we ask ourselves you know, all the time. The way we see things right now is that we expect the spreads to, you know, to moderate. That means they likely come down. On some glide path. But it is. It is our view that they will. They might remain above 25 levels. Think the, you know, the production utilization rates these years have been disrupted globally especially in China and Asia. So the inventory positions are not in the same in the same place. It might take you know, some extra time for the supplies of inputs from The Middle East and the global supply chains to normalize. You know, 1 other observation we have in Asia, Asian producers many of them had access to discounted sanction oil And the you know, to what extent that was enabling them to go to very low margins not only in PT, just in general in the. In chemicals, it is a question that we have, but there is a, you know, belief that it was a contributing factor. Access to sanction discounted oil is impaired for now, and it might not come back to the levels to where it was. So, again, we just do not have a specific number. We will obviously, we will we will share a number and an assumption in February when we share with you the guidance of 2027. But sitting here today, we would expect, again, some of the margins coming down from the current levels but still remaining with some healthy distance to the 2025. Levels. But we will. Again, we will refine that analysis as we go as we approach our next call with you guys. And you know, and also on the oil, 1 thing I forgot to mention at least for right now and in the short term, the shipping cost of oil delivered into Asian producers is higher. Right? So again, this is that supports our hypothesis that, you know, conditions might stay elevated for some time. Volume you know, for the most part, the volume gains that you saw in our numbers this year is for gaining share to imports. Yes. I think the industry in North America, I think you had a good year. With the World Cup. I think some segments in beverage also performed well Sports drinks, water, and so forth. So it was a good year on demand. But the. I would say behind the volume gains, it would be more market. Mark. It will be more market share and mostly related to imports. Got it. Thank you very much. 1 thing that you do not get to appreciate in our numbers, for example, in our polyester segments, you will see cumulative 9 month to 9 month growth of 3 to 4 maybe it is going to be 4% to 5% when the full year when we have the full year numbers. But if you could look into the mix, we have increased the mix of polymer sales and reduced the volume of the terephthalic acid exports, which are typically the lowest contributors in margins. So our mix has improved relative to the numbers. To the volumes we do report. Got it. Thank you very much.
OP
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Nicolas Barros with JPMorgan. Nicolas, please go ahead. Hi. Good morning, everyone. I have got 2 questions here. So given that you are already below your target range of leverage, right, would you be considering to bring forward any kind of discussions related to dividends? And then my second 1 on freight prices. Could you comment more on the real impact of freight prices to your pricing power capability. Right? What is the real relevance of freight to the import parity calculation, and if you could give us any kind of sensitivity to freight prices and EBITDA, right, that would be very helpful. Thank you, guys. Thank you, Nicolas, for your question.
Rodrigo Prieto Treviño: I mean, the good results and the improvement in leverage will not distract us from our focus on our strategic pillars of creating financial flexibility. So coming back, debt reduction is very important for us And before we talk about any dividends, we are very focused on reducing debt on the first hand. Then we will we will get to see how numbers are coming, right, for next year. And after that, we might start the discussion of dividends. So I will I will say first quarter of next year would start evaluating and discussing and. I mean, we do not want to discard anything, but we are gonna take a longer term view before we make any decision. On your question on freight rates, right, and I guess you are talking about container freight rates that influence the import parity of the products we sell in the regions we sell. I mean, in some of our markets, like South America, it is very typical that if freight rate is a component in the pricing structure, so you see you know, a clean you know, impact or direct impact on the pricing. So given our typical volume into that region from what we produce in South America or what we ship from North America into South America. Let's say a $10 change in freight. My correlate with $5 million change in EBITDA just for that region. Then the other region, the equation is more complex because freight rate is less you know, it influence the pricing, but it is not necessarily a component in the formulas. So a I do not know if we have provided these figures before, but our rule of thumb once you factor all Alpek is probably $1 in change of freight rates is $1 million or $10 is about $10 million. We will we will refine those calculations and get, you know, get back to you. Alright. Thank you so much.
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Operator
Operator
The following question comes from Tasso Vasconceios with UBS. Tasso, please go ahead with your question.
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Tasso Vasconcellos
Analyst · UBS. Tasso, please go ahead with your question
Hi, Jorge. Hi, Rodrigo. Thanks for taking my questions. 2 here as well. The first 1, I would like to ask again about these freight rates, but from another point of view. Because, as you just mentioned, Jorge, this for you guys that you can take a better pricing following that. And when we look globally, we are not seeing any signals of the ending of the conflict, so there might be some persistent challenge from here in terms of this great rates globally. So I would like to hear your view on how you are seeing this looking forward. Not just for the next quarter, but may. Maybe for the next 1, 2, 3 years. And how could the OPEC, take advantage for from here for the upcoming the upcoming years? And then My second question. President Trump, he has been saying that the U.S. and Mexico, they are moving closer to a potential new agreement, and there is the election in The US as well in the next month. So do you guys expect any kind of impacts on either to the positive side or to the downside? to Alpek in terms of your operations? You guys take some kind of benefits from that looking forward? I would like to hear your thoughts on that as well. Those are my 2 questions. Thank you.
JC
Jorge Pedro Young Cerecedo
Management
Yeah. Thank you, Tasso. I mean, I think the predicting the global ocean container freight market is challenging. Right? it is I think the fact that there is, you know, geopolitical tension But, you know, I think we are you know, continue to go into a world with more uncertainty I think that will continue to introduce volatility to freight rates. Sometimes it is not only the rate also is the availability. And, again, those are factors that have been supportive of our of our business. But that uncertainty. I think I think they are going to remain uncertain but it is very difficult to pinpoint what specific level you know, they will have in the next 1 or 2 years. I think there is ample capacity of ships in the world, but you know, the, again, the continued volatility and unpredictability of events and many times including weather events. Has kept the ocean global fleet you know, in a in a position where it has been very difficult to predict where it is going. I am just saying for Alpek, the-- again, the volatility will be supported because it will continue to bring certain. You know, uncertainty or disruptions to the freight environment. Again, in our February, we will take a shot at a number and share with you that assumption explicitly in our February call. And the second question on you know, the discussions, negotiations within The United States and Mexico We do not expect an impact Right now, we do have against some flow of our products PTA, terephthalic acid, or PET polymer either by ourselves or customers. And another starting EPS But we have been always in you know, what we call complying with the USMCA requirements for content. So we are you know, safely into that. And you know, obviously, we do not have all the access to all the details in the negotiations, but the way we hear things are progressing, we do not expect issues for you know, for our operations. that is clear. Thank you. Mhmm.
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Operator
Operator
The following question come from Andres Cardona with Citi. Andres, please go ahead with your question.
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Andres Cardona
Analyst · Citi. Andres, please go ahead with your question
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Jorge Rodrigo, when you evaluate these local to local supply strategy You mentioned you are seeing some benefits on volumes. And I am wondering if you are also seeing the emergence of a premium because of the reliability in terms of timing to deliver the products. Remember, when we have the COVID supply shock there was this premium As you just wanted to understand that point. And the second 1, you have partially answered it. The question is net leverage is declining You mentioned you have an objective to reduce gross leverage You may debate dividends. Next year, but you also mentioned some organic growth opportunities. I just wanted to see if you can rank what are your capital allocation, priorities, and if you may include there inorganic growth opportunities as well. Thank you.
Rodrigo Prieto Treviño: Andres, I am going to answer your first question. Yes and the local. For local supplier positioning strategy for us. Is very centric for us, very relevant This is how the businesses, you know, have been designed and for us, it is of extreme value to prove to our customers. That we can provide that extra value being very close to them and that is typically. That typically shows as a price premium compared to you know, to the import parity. And, obviously, that is, you know, that is. Those are the and negotiations that happen constantly, of course, with the customer base. We also have interest on being very competitive for them. But, you know, normally, there is a premium. The premium, which is, again, negotiated. It depends where the customer location is and so forth. But it is part of the equation. And it has been for a while. And in terms of uncertainty, there is probably more value to that than in periods where there is no uncertainty and in imports, you know, are present steadily over a long time. Those premiums tend to shrink a little bit. And right now, we are in the uncertainty phase. On your second question, Andres, in terms of ranking I would say our most important is as you mentioned, the debt reduction, right, and gaining this financial flexibility would be would be definitely number 1. Then there is couple of marginal high return CapEx projects that have been in the pipeline for some time. These are organic project that looks very good and will and will look or will we go in for them in the near term Right? And then on the third, in terms of the ranking, I would say, opportunistic M&A and dividends. Thank you. Jorge and Rodrigo. You are welcome.
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Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Alejandra Andrade with JP Morgan. Alejandra, please go ahead with your question.
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Alejandra Andrade Carrillo
Analyst · JP Morgan. Alejandra, please go ahead with your question
Hi. Thanks so much for taking my question. I just wanted to dig a little bit deeper in terms of the debt reduction that you are pursuing or seeking. Is there a specific target in terms of gross debt that you want to reach? And also in terms of debt reduction, would you be targeting more of the loans, the bonds? How are you thinking about the different parts of the cap structure? Thanks.
Rodrigo Prieto Treviño: Thank you, Alejandra. In terms of our target in debt. In net debt, I would say $1.2 billion, $1.3 billion. That will be a reasonable number to work around. Will be very, very linked to how we recoup and recover this net working capital in the next quarters as price comes lower. And on your second question, we are working on some refinancing alternatives. Right? We have some bank loans and some bonds that we are evaluating some there or prepayments and move our debt profile for a longer term. Thank you.
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Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Vanessa Quiroga with Itau. Vanessa, please go ahead with your question.
AN
Analyst
Analyst · Itau. Vanessa, please go ahead with your question
Thank you. Hi, Alpek team. I wanted to get a bit deeper into the views of what could happen with spreads going forward by segment. So between polyester and the other chemicals, Which 1 would you see normalizing, meaning going down. From current levels faster or to a bigger extent. Considering what you are seeing today in terms of freight and Asian spreads, etcetera. that is 1 of the questions that I have.
JC
Jorge Pedro Young Cerecedo
Management
So far, Vanessa, on plastics and chemicals, the spreads have come down somewhat faster than the polyester segment. A little bit faster, I would say. They are still above the prewar or the preconflict levels. But getting closer to those levels. I think we see those again, as we mentioned, polypropylene, we still see those at $0.17 for the balance of the quarter which is. Which compares to $0.40 pre-conflict And next year, again, we are still we are still, you know, defining or our view. There is less influence of ocean freights in plastics and chemicals than in polyester. In polyester, you know, the margins have also come down from the peak but remain clearly above the preconflict levels. And on top of that, the ocean freights are very important as influencing our bottom line in polyester than in other segments. You know, they remain still remain elevated. So I think into that question, and a quick answer is plastics and chemicals are on a quicker trend to normalize. The question is where do they land? Right? I mean, they might land not necessarily at the at the very low level of last year. Right? It could happen, but it is we just do not know yet. We will. Yeah. We will bring our assumptions and best view in the next conference. Excellent. The other question that I have is regarding cost pressures. I mean, given that the war has continued for longer than anybody expected, Are there any cost pressures that are starting to emerge that, in the early days, were not expected maybe just to get a better sense of any other factors to consider going forward. Well, I mean, there had been a number of cost pressures coming from the conflict. You know, for the most part, we have been able to pass through those cost pressures to the. You know, to our pricing structures across the segments of Alpek. I think the cost pressures overall remain elevated. As you know, our industry, the direct raw material increases or decreases are very automatically passed on the pricing. The secondary items, like energy and so forth, those are not necessarily part of the formulas. But, again, there has been renegotiations of the formulas to some of those inflations. But for the most significant impact is typically the raw materials than those are normally passed through complete. Okay. Excellent. Thank you very much. You are welcome.
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Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Regina Carrillo with Evercore. Regina, please go ahead with your question.
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Analyst
Analyst · Evercore. Regina, please go ahead with your question
Hi. Good morning, and congratulations on the results. My question is on CapEx. You know, CapEx has been very low for the last couple of years. What should be a normalized level of maintenance and growth CapEx for the coming years?
Rodrigo Prieto Treviño: Thank you, Regina. Yes. Definitely. that is that is a good point that you bring that we have been very diligent in managing CapEx through these low cycle years in the past. But I would say we will continue to be very strategic in how we allocate the CapEx. And what I would say, it is. It should be lower than $200 million. Right? Perfect. Yeah. Thank you.
AN
Analyst
Analyst · Evercore. Regina, please go ahead with your question
And if I may ask 1 more question, can you give us more color on why the operating free cash flow guidance remain unchanged despite the increase in non comparable EBITDA guidance. Is there a working capital assumptions?
JC
Jorge Pedro Young Cerecedo
Management
Sure, Regina. that is mainly because of the networking capital. Right? We are expecting some recovery, but not all of it. So that is the main reason. And it is all about higher prices, higher unit prices when we need our third quarter forecast, we were expecting oil and our main raw materials that by year end, they were more clearly coming down. And it is not happening yet to the contrary. They keep-- the oil is not back to the peaks we saw in April, but some of the raw materials have already passed that peak by a big chunk. Very clear. Thank you, Jorge. Thank you, Rodrigo.
OP
Operator
Operator
That was our last question. On behalf of Alpek, thank you for your participation and continued interest. Please contact us if you have any additional questions.