Earnings Labs

Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN)

Q3 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 26, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Align Technology Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ms. Shirley Stacy, Vice President of Corporate and Investor Communications. Please go ahead.

Shirley Stacy

Analyst · Robert W. Baird

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. I'm Shirley Stacy, Vice President of Corporate Communications & Investor Relations. Joining me for today's call is Joe Hogan, President and CEO; and John Morici, CFO. We issued third quarter 2017 financial results today via Marketwired, which is available on our website at investor.aligntech.com. Today's conference call is being audio webcast and will be archived on our website for approximately 12 months. A telephone replay will be available today by approximately 5:30 PM Eastern Time through 5:30 PM Eastern Time on November 9. To access the telephone replay, domestic callers should dial 877-660-6853 with conference number 13671493 followed by pound. International callers should dial 201-612-7415 with the same conference number. As a reminder, the information that the presenters discuss today will include forward-looking statements, including statements about Align's future events, product outlook, and the expected financial results for the fourth quarter of 2017. These forward-looking statements are only predictions and involve risks and uncertainties that are set forth in more detail in our most recent periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may vary significantly and Align expressly assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. We've posted historical financial statements, including the corresponding reconciliations and our third quarter conference call slides on our website under Quarterly Results. Please refer to these files for more detailed information. With that, I'll turn the call over to Align Technology's President and CEO, Joe Hogan. Joe?

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, Shirley. Good afternoon and thanks for joining us. On our call today, I'll provide some highlights on the quarter, and then briefly discuss the performance of our two operating segments, clear aligners and scanners. John will provide more detail on our financial results and discuss our outlook for the fourth quarter. Following that, I'll come back and summarize a few key points and open up the call to questions. I'm pleased to report another strong quarter and Q3 results that exceed our expectations across our key financial metrics including revenue, volumes, margins and EPS. Our Q3 revenues increased 38.3% year-over-year driven by increase Invisalign volumes across all of our geographies as well as strong growth from our scanners. Our strong Q2 results also reflect accelerate growth from teenagers in both North America and Asia Pacific with total Invisalign shipments to team up 46.3% year-over-year and up 26.5% in Q2. On sequential basis revenues increased 8.1% driven by continued strength across Asia Pacific which offset expected seasonality in Europe as well as higher than expected revenues from shipments [as record]. For North America, Q3 Invisalign case volume was down 1.1% sequentially reflecting a decrease in GP dentist channel due to less patient traffic and fewer days in the office from the summer holidays. In addition, as result of the devastation caused by hurricane Harvey and Irma, we estimate that our North American volumes are lower by approximately 1,500 cases in Q3 and mostly adults. These declines were partially offset by strong growth from the ortho channel, specially teens. On the year-over-year basis North America was up 25% reflecting strong growth from the ortho channel, driven by an increase in team patients and in Invisalign express life products. Q3 in Invisalign volume for international doctors is up 6.8% sequentially, driven primarily…

John Morici

Analyst · Jonathan Block with Stifel

Thanks, Joe. Now for our Q3 financial results. Total company revenue for the third quarter was a record $385.3 million, up 8.1% from the prior quarter and up 38.3% from the corresponding quarter a year ago. Clear aligner revenue up $341.6 million was up 6.4% sequentially, and higher than expected volume and variable foreign exchange rates as well as increased revenue from shipments to SEC. Year-over-year clear aligner revenue growth, of 40.2%, reflected strong Invisalign shipment growth across all customer channels and geographies, increased Invisalign prices and revenue from shipments to SDC. Q3 Invisalign ASPs were up sequentially approximately $25 from Q2 to $1,310 reflecting favorable foreign exchange, a favorable shift in our product mix and price increases partially offset by increased promotional discounts. On a year-over-year basis, Q3 Invisalign ASPs were also up $25, reflecting price increases, an increase in additional aligner revenue, favorable foreign exchange partially offset by increased promotional discounts. For the third quarter, total Invisalign shipments of [236.1000] cases were up 1.8% sequentially, driven primarily by our Asia Pacific doctors and North American orthodontists. Year-over-year Invisalign case volume growth was up 32.8%, driven by growth across all regions, as well as expansion of our customer base, priced predominantly from Asia Pacific. For North American orthodontists, Q3 Invisalign case volume was up 1.8% sequentially and up 31.9% year-over-year. For North American GP dentists, Invisalign case volume was down 5.2% sequentially and up 15.9% year-over-year. For international doctors, Invisalign case volume was up 6.8% sequentially and up 47.4% year-over-year. Our Scanner & Services revenue for the third quarter was $43.7 million, up 23.2% sequentially and up 25% year-over-year, primarily due to our continued investment in go-to-market activities in APAC and EMEA, as well as the initial uptick of the iTero Scanner from its first commercial availability in Japan.…

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Thanks, John. We're pleased with the performance the business and feel good about the overall momentum and strength of aligner. With that we will open up the call for any questions. Operator?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Robert Jones with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Robert Jones

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

A very big step up in ASP, John you touched on some of the factors that affect mixing and pricing increase but it does look like that you're calling for this is to be sustainable through the end of the year. So, I was may be hoping if you could just talk about the drivers and I guess may be specifically, mix and the pricing increases where I will be most interested in what's driving that why you think that looks like it will hold at least through the end of this year.

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Good question, you're right we did see some mix benefits with some volume that came through Asia, so that helps up from overall stand point we saw some FX favorability that came in this quarter. As you noted we have price increases that is in our numbers as well, partially offset by some discounting, so netted altogether we feel that for fourth quarter, flat to slightly down in Q3.

Robert Jones

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Okay I got it and then I guess just on the patient financing interesting new wrinkle, Joe was hoping maybe you could talk about the opportunity there. Any data or survey work you guys have done that might help us get ahead around how many people actually may be go to doc locator or go to see a doctor about perusing Invisalign but ultimately don’t elect to do the treatment because of cost. Might help us frame, how this might help the opportunity there.

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

About two questions, we don’t have any real statistics to tell you, how many people going doc locator and but we could tell you, from our consumer capture efforts and we talked about this concierge service, this is one of the big items that consumers have to deal with, often orthodontists also ask for a large down payment upfront too that even if a customer can avoid credit, it's still a pretty hit from a cash standpoint upfront. We think this will be a good factor for us and helping to bring more consumers into Invisalign but we don’t have any statistics right now to tell you exactly what that might be, I would say just stay with us and as we go through this we will able to give you more and more specific on it.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Steve [indiscernible] with Morgan Stanley.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Matt O'Brien with Piper Jaffray. Please proceed with your question

Two from me on the same basic concept and it's about the trajectory of investment in the business. I have to imaging you feel happy on the marketing expense trajectory and on the efforts in Asia that these have paid off, as well as they have, and you give you couple of interesting statistics on, I think it was growth and marketing spend and something like a tripling of the customer base and I believe that was a broader Asia. Could you talk about one, how you think about the growth of marketing spend and the commercial team from here and then two, a similar question, more specific to Asia, how you think about the remaining runway for customer acquisition, considering how much success you have a much you probably learned about how things are working there.

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

Steve, so on the marketing spend, I would just way we just continue to do what we can in a sense of driving volume. There is no formulating methodology we have here, we mean obviously we focused on teens in a big way. In North America to get a look that we had. That spend also has been I think really refined in the sense of how much of social media, how much goes to some other segment how much go to the team that have done, so I feel there is the lot of accuracy and sophistication in a sense of how we go about it. But we do know that we had a pretty big signal in the sense of being able to spend more of in that channel and see an increase in orders and we will keep spending where we can. I think a broader question in that and I believe then your second one is how we do this oversees too. North America a lot of our marketing dollars, our teams were focused in the third quarter in the second quarter also. But we look at translating what we are learning here in the United States oversees and we've had a pretty good response from a teen standpoint in China also and now we have some restrictions in the sense of how you can advertise in certain geographies and we have to be compliant in that sense but we will be smart in the sense of how we use as advertising dollars. From an Asia runway standpoint, I mean we talk about going wide in the business you saw we train another 1,000 docs overall in China for the quarter. There is a direct correlation in the sense of being able to train those docs and we see the increase in orders going forward. Remember our penetration rates in places like in China are still relatively thin when you think about the available population. Also, India, we are really just getting started in Korea and Taiwan. In Australia we saw terrific growth there too and that's a market that we've have had fairly good penetration rates and over the years and so there is different formulas we have to use for different geographies in the sense of adding sales people, adding docs, like in Australia it's a different deal in the sense of it is more like North America where it's advertising a specificity where you spend from a sales standpoint that helps in that way. But I know I'm not helping you a lot Steven in the sense of being able to model that, but tell you that we obviously watch as closely, we want to invest in the sense of where we get the biggest return and we do watch that part also.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Matt O'Brien with Piper Jaffray. Please proceed with your question

If I could just sneak one housekeeping item. I wonder if you have any updates on timelines in the U.S. for mandibular advancement and for iGo?

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question

On mandibular advancement we expect to hear back from the FDA in December sometime and that's all we know. It's like that when you do that, you submit your data and then basically the FDA kind of goes behind closed doors and kind of works through it but we feel we have submitted good data and we will just wait and see what happens in December. And now from an iGo standpoint remember we keep better rating on iGo and in different parts and different geographies in the sense of the product itself and how that interacts with the doc and the patient and we've had -- we continue to do well with that product line but you'll see more data on that on iGo and as iGo success as we get into -- as we report the fourth quarter next year we have more specificity on that.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question.

John Kreger

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

Joe, obviously the years split are very, very well in terms of volumes. Can you just talk about how the infrastructure is holding up? Are you starting to see any bottlenecks or choke points that could be challenges if the demand continues to be this strong?

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

Obviously when you start to grow at this rate above what we've predicted, we've been able to stay ahead from the manufacturing standpoint we always go to certain amount of buffer capacity so we cover things like this. Initially we had a little bit of trouble in the sense of clean check and our people did actually do the clean check pieces but we experienced that back actually in January or so we adjusted to give us extra capacity for the year or so. Right now, we're in good shape, it's a good thing about this business in the sense we can adjust capacity pretty quickly within a certain number of weeks and months when we have this kind of things, but we're trying to anticipate and lay resources ahead of these things, so we don’t get into a situation where we can't handle demand.

John Kreger

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

Great thank you and then, may be any early thought on 2018 and sort of key puts and takes, for example should we think about the storms here in North America as may be causing you to start more slowly or may be giving you a little bit of pent up demand as you move into next year.

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · John Kreger with William Blair. Please proceed with your question

I wouldn’t call the storms material at all, I probably wouldn’t even consider that in your accusation. And right now, we kind of talk about this, we anticipate there will 2018 questions but we have good momentum now you can see us going into fourth quarter. And I think John has given you some really strong indications of where the fourth quarter is going to be and so we try to be as specific as we could to help in that sense but we are really not ready to get into conjecture on 2018 at this point.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Jonathan Block with Stifel.

Jonathan Block

Analyst · Jonathan Block with Stifel

May just a first one, the international case volume there was tremendous, notably APAC. You mentioned the train docs and that was certainly big, but is some of that drill also due to the local treatment planning facility that just opened up or is arguably that even too soon to be yielding benefits and that so might be on the come in subsequent quarters.

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Jonathan Block with Stifel

I would say right now that I won't call any extra volume right now John associated with those, in fact we discussed that from -- we were in Germany, just last week to take a look at our [indiscernible] facility we opened up in Cologne there and honestly, it's just starting to ramp up, the initial indications, like just like in China these are really good, they interface well with customers, the teams there are very excited in sense of what they can do. Just getting closer to those customers and being in that geography from a cultural and timeframe standpoint is really critical, so that really hasn’t impacted volume yet, but we will give a report as we get into next year and this becomes a little more mature. I mean we obviously put that in there because we think, mid -term longer term, this is going to a volume driver for us.

Jonathan Block

Analyst · Jonathan Block with Stifel

Got it, actually you just answered the question with the very last statement. That’s perfect. And then just to shift gears, patient financing pilot, I want to make sure I got my arms on this correctly, so the doc gets the treatment fees, less Align's lab fee. So are you guys the one taking on the financing risk and if so, should we think about it as a potential long-term tailwind to sort of your realized ASP offset by what could be sort of the theoretical bad debt expense on the consumer, may be if you can just talk through that. Thanks guys.

John Morici

Analyst · Jonathan Block with Stifel

No, it’s a third party that would take on any of the financing sort of bad debt, or anything out that comes with this would be third party, it would not be associated with us at all.

Jonathan Block

Analyst · Jonathan Block with Stifel

Okay so zero impact to your ASP.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Matt O'Brien with Piper Jaffray. Please proceed with your question.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Matt O'Brien with Piper Jaffray. Please proceed with your question

Good afternoon team, this is Kevin on for Matt today, thanks for taking the time. I wanted to take a moment on iTero which seems to be the focus for this year and beyond and with record shipments, I'm just curious, how you're looking at the trends for case submissions and the broader strategy on the ground for iTero, seems like a bigger piece than we previously anticipated. I know you mentioned -- and the second part of the question, as I know you mentioned in the prepared remarks about the lower patient traffic in summer holidays. Just wanted to reconcile the sales effort on the scanners and the GP offices and kind how does that relate to the lower volume in the quarter. It seems a bit of a mismatch.

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Matt O'Brien with Piper Jaffray. Please proceed with your question

You remember last year Tim we were shipping a lot from backlog on the volume piece. What you are seeing this year is a pure demand signal there is nothing really coming out of backlog. So, I think if you are talking about that discrepancy that's the one I'd other point out. On your broader question on the volume of the business I think it's important for you to understand that when we talk about sales last year of iTero, its broadly an North American business. What we're seeing now we're seeing an increase uptick in Europe, we just approved in Japan, we had significant semantic shipments in Japan in the third quarter also and we'll move into Asia broadly into more next year. I say the business is just getting broader internationally and that adds to the volume also. But in the United States I hear in your comments that I think you understand that we've have a really good amount of orthodontic penetration with iTero, and more and more of our sales are moving into GPs and so that's one of the reasons we put together the Patterson dental distribution agreement because of their strong position with GPs and help us through so we have some work to do on restore the workflow in areas like that to be more viable in that channel but we've got a really good pickup and we are enthusiastic about the future in North American channel for GPs too.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Matt O'Brien with Piper Jaffray. Please proceed with your question

I mean the second question kind of comes from China. I think a few folks touched on this to just wanted to discuss just the utilization trends in that market and the strategy that's kind of done differently there that you would highlight versus the rest of the international markets. Is there anything on the grounds that I am missing driving this or is it just continued adoption training and utilization as you would expect?

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Matt O'Brien with Piper Jaffray. Please proceed with your question

Continual adoption, training and utilization just as you described it Kevin. I wish I could make it sound harder and more sophisticated but it's about getting resources in place and moving it through. Now you know we just put up a treatment planning facility in China and that's really, they are ramping up well we are getting good customers feedback and so you know we will continue to do more and more resources to enhance that position in China in the future.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.

Erin Wright

Analyst · Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question

Just as a follow-up on sort of the Scanners. I guess what sort of traction are you seeing for kind of standalone I guess versus sort of the closed architecture systems just given sort of the distribution shift that we've been seeing kind of in the U.S. and is there stocking dynamics that we should be considering here in near term? Thanks.

John Morici

Analyst · Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question

I missed that question, can you rephrase the question?

Erin Wright

Analyst · Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question

iTero.

John Morici

Analyst · Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question

Yes, I know that’s iTero, but it was underneath that.

Unidentified Company Representative

Analyst · Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question

What do you mean by closed systems?

Erin Wright

Analyst · Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question

Like closed architecture systems involving like [Indiscernible].

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question

You mean like a Scarano system. [indiscernible] But Scarano they are capable of doing a scan and sending it into us and you can bypass them and an impress them with a Scarano Scanner. You can't necessarily get stimulation and lot of visualization and things that we offer on the iTero side. Does that answer -- and then you talk about did you, you talk about capacity on iTero or…

Erin Wright

Analyst · Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question

Yes, or any sort of stocking with just your relationships there that we should be….

John Morici

Analyst · Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question

I understand what you mean. No nothing like the Patterson, Scarano thing, don’t worry about any kind of stocking things affecting our numbers in a material way.

Erin Wright

Analyst · Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question

Okay, great. And then can you give us an update on this SmileDirectClub and how's that sort of resonating with customers and how you weigh sort of that direct to consumer relationship with all those practitioners as well. Thanks.

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Erin Wright with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question

I mean, our relationship with SmileDirectClub is good, we value, I think we’re very synergistic in the sense of how we work with one another, remember those are SmileDirect customers, we don’t see them, we don’t really experience them we just do what SmileDirectClub asks us to do it. Obviously, part of your question is a lot of consternation in the orthodontic channel, about doctor directed and kind of systems that will be more of a digital dentistry, remote kinds of things where it's not involved in the doctor's office. Again, that’s not us, we’re not part of that, SmileDirectClub really controls that and holds it, so. I mean there is market for this, SmileDirectClub continues to do a great job in market and grow pretty substantially but it would be stupid to ignore that there is certain amount of consternation in the market place and a pushback but, I think SGC continues to do a great job out there.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from the line of Richard Newitter with Leerink Partners.

Richard Newitter

Analyst · Richard Newitter with Leerink Partners

I just wanted to start, your growth trajectory, it continues to accelerate, you're at a level, there is some pretty enormous year-over-year numbers here and I was just wondering if you could reflect a little bit upon, the age old question we always ask you balancing, driving future growth through the investment and dropping to the bottom line and as we kind think about, some of these marketing initiatives that are clearly being paying off, it sounds like you guys are probably at a point where it team's inflecting and you might want to dial over some of these initiatives and is that the way to think about it, you could be at a tipping point here, inflection point in adoption and you guys are going to put the gap total expense or how should we think about your growth for all the investment.

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Richard Newitter with Leerink Partners

I'll just turn your attention to how underpenetrated we're in this market place, I mean its incredible right. globally we can do 60% to 70% of the orthodontic cases out there today, we have 8%. And so, a lot of the investment and things that we make, whether it's recruiting new doctors in China or its targeting moms and teens here in Untied States, it's about really driving the penetration that there is an entitlement in this business we should have based on what patients want and based on what our technology can deliver. I know there is always questions on leverage out there, our operating profits are over 25%, obviously was held by SGC this quarter, and its significant but we shown good leverages this quarter despite exchange and despite what I call unusual from an SGC standpoint. So, I would say we're getting some leverage in this business, but I don’t expect kind of the material change in this sense of the input, output ratio of this business. We have to continue and invest aggressively in forward sales forces and marketing, especially in technology to stay ahead and to penetrate more to market place. We’ve always said that our goal is 25% to 30% operating profit in this business. We could do that tomorrow if we wanted to, you wouldn't like the growth numbers. Now we're getting close to that lower end and we keep working that piece and we feel good about the tradeoffs that we are actually administrating right now between volume and margin. Does that make sense Richard?

Richard Newitter

Analyst · Richard Newitter with Leerink Partners

It makes a lot of sense and I think a number of investors would agree to it, that are striking the right balance and the trade of there. My second question is just on teens, can you break out a little bit the, continued acceleration that we're seeing in that category, I get a lot of it was held outside the U.S. but in North America what kind of attraction you're getting with the GP channel in teen obviously your orthodontic channels are a little more dominant there but are you starting to see some inflection on the GP side with that segment?

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Richard Newitter with Leerink Partners

With the GP segment in general I would say no, honestly, I would say I go helping us understand that more and I can tell you the GP segment in the U.S. is certainly different in the segment in Germany than it is in Japan, than it is in China and so each one of these countries kind of has a different solution that we have to work through whether its workflow or what preferences re whatever so. I will not say we are in an inflection point in all the GPs I would say we have a lot of growth. Teen growth for GPs not where they are focus, and so a lot of GPs only touch a teen, they are worried about working teen so that's not a -- and when we talk about teens we are really talking about all ortho channel utilization in the end.

Operator

Operator

Yes, and that question is coming from the line of Jeff Johnson with Robert W. Baird.

Jeff Johnson

Analyst · Robert W. Baird

I'll try to be quick here as the last question so Joe I guess first question just why did we see the increase in SDC volumes in the third quarter? Was there a driver of that was there a reason behind that and why does it revert in the fourth quarter? Do we just kind of live with the little bit of volatility here going forward?

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Robert W. Baird

I'll answer your last question first, you live with the volatility going forward Jeff okay. We don’t control SmileDirectClub's decision making process. I'm not quite sure exactly why we receive that much more of SDCs volume but I don’t count on that going forward and that's basically John's comments where in his opening remark. So, I wish I could more specific about it Jeff but I can't and it's just…

Jeff Johnson

Analyst · Robert W. Baird

Should we at all bring that as a demand spike in the third quarter like all of the sudden volume came in stronger than they expected in the third quarter or do you think it was just them putting out some volume on you?

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Robert W. Baird

Well, they continue to grow but I say it's a combination of both but it's not driven discreetly by volume I would say.

Jeff Johnson

Analyst · Robert W. Baird

Yes, okay and my last question just on the fusion, the iTero fusion program you know you are locking GPs and it's some higher implied volumes there with that program just what's been the response to that program? Has that program taken off or is it taking off and how should we think about the implications for the GP numbers from that program going forward?

Joseph Hogan

Analyst · Robert W. Baird

I think again I have to move outside of North America in general, the biggest uptick in segments for fusion has been outside of North America, and it's been really received extremely well. In North America right now, we're really just getting cracked up on the fusion piece and we'll have more for you in the fourth quarter results, Jeff.

Shirley Stacy

Analyst · Robert W. Baird

Well, thank you, everyone. This concludes our conference call for today and look forward to seeing you at upcoming financial conferences and industry meetings. If you have any other questions, please contact Investor Relations. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.