Steven Udvar-Hazy
Management
That's a good question. Let me answer that in two parts. Let me answer sort of the macro picture and then talk about our policy with respect to how long we hold on to these assets which have obviously less of an impact on us because we hold these assets for shorter periods than a typical lessor. If you look at the number aircraft that have been scrapped or removed from service in the last say 24 months, probably less than 2.5% of that was consisting of aircraft like Boeing 737-600's, a few 737-700's, some early model A320's, 97.5% of the aircraft that were scrapped were 727, 737-200, DC-9, older MD-80, older DC-10, L-1011, 747-100 and 200. So, the number of aircraft that, I would say, are currently in favor that have been removed from service is very minimal. In fact, the number of aircraft part of those categories is also very minimal. There were certain circumstances in 2011 and 2012 where a run out, for example a 737-600 had more value if you breakup the airplane and take the engines, CFM56-7 engines and the associated systems, APU, landing gear. If you aggregate the values of those different components, it was worth more than the aircraft run out condition. So I would have to characterize that this is more the exception than the rule. We have seen no evidence that modern day aircrafts that are built today would have a useful life of less than 25 years or 80,000 to 100,000 flight hours. There's just no evidence pointing to that. Now, obviously if fuel prices go up, the pressure will be greater to replace the older aircraft, the non-fuel efficient airplane and less pressure on the existing generation 737NG, A320 family airplanes. So, I would not consider it as a panic condition and at the last several conferences, including ISTAT this issue was addressed by the appraisers very effectively. There are short-term aberrations because of few airplanes that sort of fall into this unique category can change people's mindset, but I think overall, we don't see really a significant change in the useful lives of these assets. Now those airplanes that are ultimately eligible for cargo conversions even have longer life spans than 25 years. Now speaking about our strategy. We generally try to enjoy the useful life and earning productivity of these airplanes for the first third of their lives. So somewhere around 8, 9, 10 years these aircraft are going to be removed from our fleet through disposition. So we are less vulnerable to these type of residual value impacts in the latter stages of an aircraft's life.