AKRYY (AKRYY) Q3 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Okay. Thank you, Preben, and welcome to everyone this morning. And first, a quick personal note. I have a stutter, so you might occasionally have some notice of stutter or pauses in my speech, but that's fine. Okay. Moving on to today's presentation. Since I started in this role in September, I've spent time listening to our customers and our teams. And those conversations have reinforced 2 clear priorities for us, deliver and transform. First, our priority is to deliver our projects safely, on time with the right quality and at the right cost. At the same time, we are transforming how we work and how we run our business. We run our projects now in a lean agile setup. We are laser-focused on standardization and simplification, and we are redesigning our processes to work with data rather than documents. Therefore, I'm confident that we have what it takes to reshape the company for the future and to continue to create value for our people, our customers and our shareholders. Okay. Let's then turn into the quarter results and the key message for today. First and foremost, I'm pleased to report that we continue to deliver solid financial results following the peak activity in 2025. The third quarter revenue was NOK 13.5 billion with an EBITDA margin of 9.6% or 7.7% when excluding the net profit from SLB OneSubsea. During the third quarter, we achieved several important milestones in our project portfolio. This includes the successful sail away of 2 topsides in the Aker BP portfolio and strong performance in our Life Cycle business. We are also maturing opportunities across a range of markets such as small modular reactors. Lastly, in our updated guidance for 2026, we now expect revenues to be between NOK 53 billion and NOK 55 billion with an EBITDA margin between 7.5% and 8%, excluding net profit from SLB OneSubsea. And at this early stage, we expect the 2027 revenues to be between NOK 35 billion and NOK 40 billion with an EBITDA margin of between 7% and 8%, excluding the net profit from SLB OneSubsea. We are taking active steps to reduce our cost base, align capacity while reshaping the business to improve our competitiveness and position ourselves for profitable growth. And then over to some operational highlights, starting with the Aker BP portfolio. During the quarter, both the Hugin B and Valhall PWP topsides left our yards. The last topside, Hugin A, is expected to sail away during the winter months. But then our engagement on this project does not end at sail away. Several of our people will support the offshore commissioning phase, preparing the start-up in 2027. In Life Cycle, we are engaged in several subsea tieback projects. One example is the Skarv Satellite Project for Aker BP, where 3 subsea fields have been tied back to the Skarv FPSO. For this project, Aker Solutions has been responsible then for the topside modification, while SLB OneSubsea has delivered the subsea equipment. In August, Aker BP announced the first production from the project, more than 10 months ahead of the original schedule. This is quite an achievement for the alliance partners. Within offshore wind, we are in the final stages of the offshore commissioning of the first-generation legacy lump sum projects. These projects continue to be both commercially and operationally challenging and commercial discussions are still ongoing. On a more positive note, we are progressing well on the 2 second-generation HVDC commercial platforms for the Norfolk project in the U.K. executed in a joint venture with Drydocks World in Dubai. And as you saw in the video, our Verdal yard is currently assembling several substructures for HVDC projects to -- then to European offshore wind developments. Moving on to the carbon capture and storage. We are progressing well on the capacity expansion of the Northern Lights storage terminal and in the Hafslund Celsio waste-to-energy project in Oslo. And during the quarter, we have also signed a collaboration agreement with Microsoft. The idea behind this collaboration agreement is simple. We combine Microsoft's capabilities with our engineering and project execution expertise to help customers mature projects then towards the final investment decision. And next, hydropower plays an important role in the energy mix. And since the acquisition of Rainpower, Aker Solutions has managed to transform the entity into a profitable growth business. And this is driven by excellent sales and by solid project execution across the portfolio of projects in Norway and abroad. And lastly, as mentioned, we continue to develop our role within the small modular reactors together with SMR -- Rolls-Royce SMR. And under the MOU, work is ongoing then to validate the module design, supported by a dedicated team from Aker Solutions. The ambition is to sign contracts for detailed engineering services during 2027. And looking further ahead, the construction activities are expected to start in time to support the ambition of the first energy by 2035. I would also like to highlight the solid performance in our Life Cycle segment. Over the past year, we have successfully renewed all long-term frame agreements in Norway and in Canada. And in the third quarter, we also secured a strategically important frame agreement with BP for some of their U.K. assets. And -- but then winning this contract is only the first step. The ambition is to radically change how we execute projects. We do this through closer collaboration, standardization and by adopting agile ways of working enabled by AI. And this is not about doing more. It's about working smarter and to create value with our customers. This improvement mindset and culture are key for winning new projects. And this takes me to our tender pipeline, which currently stands at around NOK 72 billion, adjusted then for the recent loss of the Wisting FPSO project in Norway. The tender activity continues to be centered around our hubs in Europe and Asia, Australia. And in Europe, we continue to see high tender activity for topside modifications driven by subsea tiebacks as well as opportunities within offshore wind and carbon capture. Outside Europe, we are actively then positioning for several FPSO opportunities together with strategic partners. We are also tendering for the renewal of the long-term frame agreement with BSP in Brunei. Next, moving on to SLB OneSubsea, where Aker Solutions holds a 20% stake. At the end of 2025, the company announced order intake targets of more than $9 billion for 2026 and 2027. So far this year, SLB OneSubsea has announced several important awards, positioning the company for profitable growth from 2027 and onwards. And as both an owner and delivery partner for SLB OneSubsea, Aker Solutions sees opportunities for continued strong value creation in the company going forward. And with that, I leave the word to Idar, who will take you through the financials of the quarter.

Thank you, Paal. First, let me start with the income statement. The third quarter revenue was NOK 13.5 billion, in line with -- in line with expectations following peak activity levels in 2025. The underlying EBITDA was NOK 1.3 billion with a margin of 9.6%. If we exclude the net profit from SLB OneSubsea, our underlying margin was 7.7%. The underlying EBIT was NOK 891 million with a margin of 6.6%. And the underlying net profit was NOK 704 million, representing an earnings per share of NOK 1.45 in the quarter. Moving to our segments. In the Renewable and Field Development segment, third quarter revenue was NOK 9.2 billion with an underlying EBITDA margin of 8.4%. This was negatively affected by the mentioned legacy lump sum projects, offset by solid performance in the remaining project portfolio. The order intake was NOK 3.7 billion, leading to a secured backlog of NOK 27.1 billion at the end of the quarter. For 2026, we expect revenues to be between NOK 36 billion and NOK 38 billion in this segment. For the Life Cycle segment, the third quarter revenue was NOK 3.6 billion. The drop in volume mainly relates to lower activity in the electrification portfolio compared to the same period last year. The underlying EBITDA was NOK 274 million with a margin of 7.6%. This was driven by strong operational performance across frame agreements and modification projects. Order intake was NOK 1.2 billion or 0.3x book-to-bill. The backlog continues to be robust at NOK 40 billion, providing good visibility on activity levels for several years ahead. If you also include the estimated value of the option periods, the backlog will increase to around NOK 80 billion. Based on the secured backlog and market activity, we expect revenues in Life Cycle to be between NOK 14 billion and NOK 15 billion for the full year of 2026. Moving over to the financial performance of SLB OneSubsea, here shown as 100% basis in U.S. dollars based on U.S. GAAP. In the third quarter, SLB OneSubsea reported revenues of $1.1 billion, an increase of about 12% compared to the same period last year. EBITDA in the quarter was approximately $197 million with a margin of 18.5%. This is almost 150 basis points above the margins for the first half of 2026 reflecting stronger performance across the business lines. Net profit for the entity increased to $152 million before PPA adjustments. This was positively impacted by a one-off tax provision release of around $20 million in the quarter. During the quarter, SLB OneSubsea recognized an order intake of around $1.2 billion, and the backlog grew to $5.3 billion. Lastly, the company reported strong cash generation in the quarter with a net cash increasing to $482 million. And based on its robust financial position, we continue to expect full year dividend distribution in 2026 to be in line with 2025 levels. Next, I will go through the key cash flow items in the quarter. Operational cash flow was NOK 1.6 billion. This includes an improvement in working capital of around NOK 700 million in the period. CapEx was NOK 67 million or 0.5% of revenues. The quarterly dividend received from our 20% stake in SLB OneSubsea was NOK 137 million, in line with previous quarters. Lastly, our financial position remains highly robust with a net cash of NOK 5.8 billion, including investments in liquid funds. I will now hand the presentation back to Paal to summarize the key developments of the quarter and present our updated guidance.

Thank you, Idar. I started today's presentation highlighting key priorities for Aker Solutions in the next chapter, deliver and transform. Delivering strong project execution is also key to winning new work. And we will remain disciplined in selecting the right projects with the right customers and the right scopes of work. At the same time, we need to transform our company. As the NCS activity package projects come to an end in 2027, we will reshape our business and adjust our capacity and cost base to reflect the market ahead. This is not something new to Aker Solutions. We have a scalable business model and a proven ability to adapt to a changing market condition. We are positioning Aker Solutions to be fit for the future. And our ambition is clear: to build a stronger Aker Solutions that is more competitive, more profitable and better positioned to deliver shareholder value over time. So then to summarize. The third quarter shows commitment to deliver our projects safely and efficiently. And this is also reflected in our solid financial performance. And then next, over to an updated guidance. For 2026, we expect the revenues to be in the NOK 53 billion to NOK 55 billion range, with an EBITDA margin of between 7.5% and 8%, excluding net profit from SLB OneSubsea. And as mentioned, we expect activity levels to come down in 2027 to a level between NOK 35 billion and NOK 40 billion with an EBITDA margin between 7% and 8%, excluding the net profit from SLB OneSubsea. CapEx in 2026 is expected to be around 0.5% of revenues. Working capital is expected to normalize to a level between negative NOK 4 billion and negative NOK 6 billion over time. And finally, SLB OneSubsea is an important value contributor to the value creation in Aker Solutions. And as mentioned, we expect dividends from SLB OneSubsea in 2026 to be broadly in line with 2025 levels, where the company paid $412 million to its shareholders. Thank you all for listening. That was the end of this presentation. In a few moments, we will open for questions. Preben Ørbeck: The first question today comes from Victoria McCulloch in RBC. If you can shed some light on the biggest moving parts in the tender pipeline year-to-date, which has caused it to shrink since Q1 and if you are concerned?

Yes. The -- we are targeting many engineering projects from international hubs like Mumbai and KL. So it's kind of -- there's a lot of interesting prospects there that we now are working on. And it's also linked to the FPSOs that's also in that region. So those 2 is the main drivers, I think.

And when it comes to sort of development throughout the year, there have been, of course, Wisting was a targeted project for us. That has been taken out now in the third quarter. And there was another HVDC type of project earlier in the year that was also included, but is out of the numbers. Preben Ørbeck: Maybe then moving over to the legacy -- a question on the legacy lump sum project. If you can remind us of the size of these contracts, how much is remaining? And how much drag these are on the margins in 2027 as part of the new updated guidance?

Yes. The legacy projects, as we have stated, they're still impacting our margin negatively due to the fact that there is no margins coming from those projects. And in this quarter, we have also taken some additional costs on the offshore phase because of several reasons, the offshore phase is going to be extended a bit. And we have now included in our numbers some additional costs in the -- for the extension of that offshore phase of these projects. Preben Ørbeck: Moving on to a question on the headcount. How do you expect the headcount to move in 2027 to reflect the lower activity levels?

As mentioned many times now, we are reshaping the company now, and we are moving from an era of major, large projects into more smaller like marginal subsea tiebacks. So what we're doing now is to make sure that we are ready then to be executing those projects in an excellent way. So it's important also to highlight again that this is not new to us to Aker Solutions that to be scaling up and down and understanding what is the market ahead and how can we deliver really well on those. So before year-end, we will come back with more details and numbers.

And just to add to it, as Paal mentioned, this is a normal part of our business for a business that we are running. And as a reminder, in the fourth quarter of last year, we did some adjustment to our staffing level in the Verdal yard, which was the first one with entering in with somewhat lower activity, and we took out between 200 and 300 people from that one. And you should expect similar going forward. And those costs, restructuring costs when we do it, we classify that as special items. So when we guide on our margins, our margin guidance is always ex special items. Preben Ørbeck: Then moving to a few questions about the 2027 guidance. The first from Kim Uggedal. Does the margin guidance for 2027 include contingency release related to the Aker BP portfolio? And can you quantify this?

I think what you should read into this one is that we -- in our contracts, we would like to have incentive mechanism into our contracts, and we have that more and more, including Life Cycle as an important part of it. And normally, you will see more towards the end of a contract than in the beginning. And we have those type of elements into it. That's why it's so important to perform and deliver with high quality on those contracts, and that is our clear ambition. And then we have said it before, yes, there are risk money, and we would also like to convert risk money to profit instead of spending it on the cost that it was originally intended to. Preben Ørbeck: Then a few questions or also statements from Lukas Daul in Arctic that you have underestimated the 2026 volumes. Will the same thing happen in 2027? And can you give a bit more color also on the margin guidance for 2027?

Yes. I think when it comes to the volume side, we have -- today announced that we expect revenue in the range of NOK 35 billion to NOK 40 billion for 2027. That's our best estimate for the time being. And if we have to correct that one, we will have to come back to you. But right now, that's the best estimate we can give you.

And then Preben to highlight again that what we're doing now is to scale to make sure that we are ready. And now we have been delivering major, major projects, and those will come down and that's natural. But then how do we make sure that we also continue to deliver margins going forward?

Just to add to it, of course, Paal, you mentioned it, we are used to this. And just to put it in perspective, in 2025 was the peak year of our activity where we were more -- north of NOK 60 billion in turnover. When we now guide for '27 of NOK 35 billion to NOK 40 billion, it seems to be quite dramatic. Of course, we would like to have as much revenue as possible, but the most important one is to have healthy margins and generate cash flow. And just as a reminder, when you have large EPC projects, then more than 50% of the contract value is actually a procurement that is flowing through our top line. When you combine that with a large portion of hire-ins and subcontractors, then you will see that we have a very flexible and scalable business in order to take care of that type of adjustment that is needed. Preben Ørbeck: A follow-up on the tender pipeline that it's shifted more towards the Asia Pacific region. If you can give some more color on the competitive dynamics in that region and why Asia Pacific is important for Aker Solutions?

Yes. We have, as mentioned, global hubs in Malaysia and also in India. And those have been and will continue to be bidding in the local markets, but we're also using those hubs then to be bidding kind of for larger engineering products in the whole world, meaning that also in the Middle East. So it's kind of -- we're using those hubs to make sure that we are competitive. Preben Ørbeck: Moving on to a question on OneSubsea. If you can give some -- your view on the financial performance and also on the dividend, the expected dividend levels in '26 and going forward, Idar?

Yes. I think as we have said before, we are a happy shareholder of -- 20% shareholder of OneSubsea. We -- they started off in 2023, repaid all shareholder loans and have built up a healthy net cash position of close to $500 million. They are paying out dividends every quarter. And last year, in 2025, we received NOK 841 million, roughly $80 million, and we expect similar level this year. That -- therefore, you should expect a top-up now in the fourth quarter in order to be in line with the distribution that was around $80 million in 2025. Preben Ørbeck: Okay. I think that was all the questions that have come in today. Paal, would you like to say some closing remarks before we end the presentation?

Yes, sure. Thank you. So I would just like to highlight that, as mentioned many times now, but within Aker Solutions now, we have 2 main priorities, and that is to deliver the projects really well and also be transforming how we deliver them and making that even better, but also that we can move into new markets then going forward. So I'm confident that we will see it then going forward. Preben Ørbeck: Okay. From all of us here, I think we would like to thank you all for listening. Additional questions can be sent to my e-mail, and I will reply later today. And then we'll see you all in the next quarter.