Ken Bernstein
Analyst · Citi. Your question please
Thank you, Nishant. Good morning. Over the past several quarters we discussed some of the legitimate headwinds impacting retail real estate and then try to shed some light regarding confusion between which of these headwinds are more traditional short term and cyclical and which are longer term secular changes. So today in reviewing our third quarter results, I’ll discuss how these trends are impacting the different growth drivers of our business. In general, we are seeing things play out consistent with our overall thesis with a few worthwhile observations. First observation, we see stability, not withstanding overly negative and overly simplified headlines around retailer headwinds. As we look at our core portfolio, as we look at our cash flows, they remain solid and long term growth prospects remain strong. But the fact that we see stability, the fact that we see long term embedded growth doesn’t ignore that a variety of retailers are facing real challenges. Now these challenges are having different short term and they are likely going to have different long term impact on retail real estate depending on the property type and the retailer. But to view all retailer challenges are somehow permanent or caused solely by ecommerce, it’s missing the point. My other observation is looking at our third quarter results, is that this summer new activity both in terms of new leases and new investments was quieter than we had hoped. Now while some of it might be attributable to summer holidays, and I get that patience is a virtue, it’s just not one of my strong points and its certainly doesn’t help our short term metrics. So I’m pleased that we are seeing things start to pickup. But more important, when we take a step back, we look at the different drivers of our businesses; I like how we are positioned. I like it both in terms of our core portfolio, as well as our fund platform. First in terms of our core, it’s a well diversified well leased portfolio with strong embedded long term growth. As we explained on the last call and then John will discusses further today, our portfolio NOI is poised to grow at a 4% per annum clip over the next five years with realistic, rational and achievable assumption. And while a quieter summer means incremental leasing is talking a bit longer. We also need to keep this in perspective. For instance on the street component of our portfolio as John will explain, we have less than a dozen key spaces to lease, and while the timing of these leases are very important to our short term metrics, given the quality of the location, given that the rent conversations we are having with retailers today are consistent with our expectations, I’m confident that we get there, it’s just a matter of timing. Further more in the past few weeks, we’ve begun to see important signs of retailer reemergence, especially the Live-Work-Play gateway markets and urban markets where we are focused. We are seeing this in Chicago, where in Lincoln Park the screens to stores trend is playing out nicely and recently we signed a lease with online home furnishing retailer Serena & Lily on Armitage Avenue. They are joining Bonobos and Warby Parker who are tenants of ours there as well, as well as elsewhere in our portfolio. We are seeing it in Chicago and Rush and Walton Streets, where the expansion of Lululemon is well underway and we are going to soon begin to redeveloping the building, housing the current Burton Snowboards and that will complement recent additions to that corridor of Aritzia, Versace, Dior and Tesla. We are seeing it in Washington DC, where there is continued interest from a variety of retailers, ranging from new fashion concepts coming to M Street to off price retails in our urban assets. For example, in the third quarter at Rhode Island Place, TJ Maxx relocated into a super store location and then we nicely and profitably backfilled it with a Ross Dress for Less store. Now while we are seeing increased tenant interest in both street and urban, there is no doubt that there has been a fair amount of volatility and a lot of headline noise around street and retail, so I would like spend a few months discussing that. In trying to understand some of the volatility, I think it’s worth looking at New York City which is getting more than its fair share of headline. In some corridors in New York City, rent doubled from 2010 to 2015 and thus the decline from the peak to current has been meaningful. Thankfully we were not particularly aggressive in joining the Trees Growing to the Sky Club and thus New York City street retailer is only 8% of our NOI. Nevertheless, we have a handful of spaces to lease there and I think it’s instructive to observe how things played out. In short rents grew, too far too fast. By 2015 things began to peak, foot traffic was still strong and still is strong, but whether it was a stronger dollar, merchandising misstep, shopper fatigue combined with apparel going into a broad base, nationwide funk, that resulted in retailers slowing there expansion plans, pruning their fleets and then pushing back on that. And at the same time, a host of entrepreneurial landmarks, they were trying to vacate existing below market tenants and replace them with tenants at ever increasing peak rents. This has created the standoff and visibly noticeable vacancy rates that exist today. And while it may take some time to stabilize, it feels much more cyclical than secular. In short it’s been much more about old fashion grade than about Amazon and now that rents are beginning to settle, retailers are beginning to step-up. This rollercoaster can be painful for some, that’s the nature of cyclical businesses, but it creates opportunities for others as we think will be the case for us. As it relates to our portfolio, we certainly like watching rents grows well in excess of our expectations in a handful of the markets we are activity in. But out rental growths goals for our street retail portfolio were always far more modest. As you may recall, on prior calls we laid out that our goal was to achieve about 200 basis points stronger, rental growth from our street retail portfolio than our stabilized suburban portfolio and that equates to about 4% annual growth, to the 3% contractual and then a bit more through market to markets over time. Now, if market rents grew 5% per annum or 6% per annum, that’s great, but only if retailer sales and profitability could keep up. In any event 10% per annum, or 20% per annum market rental growth was just not sustainable. So reflecting over the last five years, notwithstanding the noise, notwithstanding the rollercoaster ride, we see things playing out consistent with our original thesis, and our retailers are telling us that once they regain their sea legs, the must have locations, the properties we own, the gateway markets we are located in, that’s where they are going to return to. This retailer enthusiasm is also reflected in the progress we are making in our core redevelopments, also in live-work-play gateway markets. As John will discuss, our projects are moving ahead nicely. Then in terms of the suburban component of our core, which is about 25% of our portfolio. There we see general stability as well and while we are not immune to the trends impacting the suburban side of our business, whether its pressure on some box retailers or interesting trends impacting super markets and drug retailers, we do not feel overly exposited to any one tenant or any one product type in the suburban side, and as always location matters most. Another driver of long term growth for our core portfolios are core acquisitions. But disciplined match funding is essential and that’s in the third quarter; core acquisitions were quite. Lack of currency and limited motivation or discreet so far on the part of sellers for the highest quarter properties kept out on balance sheet core purchases sidelined. But we are beginning to see certain owners recognize that they bit off more than they can chew and it the starts aligned, we’ll be there. Then the other main driver of our business is our fund platform, and while new fund investment activity was also a big quite, we are seeing that beginning to change. Sellers are beginning to be willing to transact at where the market will clear and as Amy will discuss, our high yield opportunities continue to present themselves. The challenge there to-date has been being able to get comfortable that the NOI will remain intact. Then on the disposition side of the fund business, activity continues to be productive and profitable. Finally, in terms of interest income from on balance sheet lending as John will discuss, mezzanine capital is coming back to us faster than we are currently redeploying it. This is a high class problem and one that we suspect will reverse itself given some of the dislocations in the market. So in conclusion, while we look forward to increased activity because that’s what we are built for, we ought not to confuse activity with value creation and from that perspective we are doing the right things staying disciplined and position ourselves appropriately. Most importantly, as we look out over the next several years, we like what we see. Our core portfolio has strong embedded growth with the right assets in the right locations. Our profitable fund platform continues to provide additional value creation opportunities and our balance sheet metrics are right where we want them. With that, I’ll thank our team for their efforts and turn the call over Amy.