Ed McGowan
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Thank you, Tom. I'm pleased to report that we delivered excellent fourth quarter results with total revenue of $1.095 billion, up 7% year-over-year as reported and up 6% in constant currency. We also delivered strong bottom line results with non-GAAP EPS of $1.84, up 11% year-over-year as reported and in constant currency. Moving now to revenue. Compute revenue, which is comprised of the high-growth Cloud Infrastructure Services or CIS solutions and our Other Cloud Applications, or OCA, was $191 million, up 14% year-over-year as reported and in constant currency. For Q4, CIS revenue was $94 million, accelerating to 45% growth year-over-year as reported and 44% in constant currency, a nice jump from 39% growth last quarter. CIS now represents approximately 50% of total compute revenue. Moving to security. Revenue was $592 million, up 11% year-over-year as reported and 9% in constant currency. Revenue from API Security and Zero Trust Enterprise Security combined was $90 million, an increase of 36% year-over-year and 34% in constant currency. Notably, API Security grew by more than 100% year-over-year, exiting the year with a revenue run rate exceeding $100 million. Security revenue was driven by strength of our high-growth product suites and a favorable tailwind from term license revenue. For the fourth quarter, license revenue rose to $18 million, up from $12 million in the same period last year. As a reminder, our term license agreements are generally for one to 3 years and we continue to maintain exceptionally high renewal rates in our term license business. Moving to delivery. Revenue was $311 million, down 2% year-over-year as reported and down 3% in constant currency. These results highlight the continued steadying trends we have seen in our delivery business throughout 2025. International revenue was $542 million, up 11% year-over-year or up 8% in constant currency, representing 50% of total revenue in Q4. U.S. foreign exchange fluctuations had a negative impact on revenue of $5 million on a sequential basis and a $12 million positive impact on a year-over-year basis. Moving to profitability. In Q4, we generated non-GAAP net income of $270 million or $1.84 of earnings per diluted share, up 11% year-over-year as reported and in constant currency. This better-than-expected performance was primarily driven by higher-than-expected top line revenue in the fourth quarter. Finally, our Q4 CapEx was $154 million or 14% of revenue. Moving to cash in our capital allocation strategy. As of December 31, our cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled approximately $1.9 billion. During the fourth quarter, we did not repurchase any shares. For the full year 2025, we spent $800 million to buy back approximately 10 million shares, marking the largest annual buyback in our history. As it relates to the use of capital, our intentions remain the same, to continue buying back shares over time, to offset dilution from employee equity programs and to be opportunistic in both M&A and share repurchases. Now before I provide Q1 and full year 2026 guidance, I want to touch on some housekeeping items. First, as Tom pointed out, we recently signed our largest compute customer contract. We're very excited that this technology company has committed to a minimum 4-year spend of approximately $200 million on our Cloud Infrastructure Services with a large majority of that spend for our AI Inference Cloud. We expect to start recognizing revenue from this contract in the fourth quarter of 2026. Second, to capitalize on this transaction and with growing AI Inference Cloud pipeline, we intend to invest approximately $250 million of CapEx this year to augment our AI Inference Cloud. Third, we have recently observed significant inflationary pressure within the computer hardware market due to unprecedented industry investment in AI, specifically, we're seeing a dramatic increase in the price of memory chips, which is driving up the cost of servers. This supply constraint has necessitated an upward adjustment to our CapEx forecast of approximately $200 million for 2026. Next, I want to remind you some typical seasonality we experienced in operating expenses throughout the year. First, we recently completed a targeted reduction in our workforce to better align our talent with our long-term growth priorities. While this action streamlined certain areas and reduced our OpEx, we do not anticipate generating net savings for the full year. Instead, we are reinvesting those savings directly back into the business, specifically to scale our go-to-market efforts and to support our colocation and CIS infrastructure requirements to maximize our growth opportunities. In Q4, we took a $55 million restructuring charge that was primarily comprised of severance costs and impairments of certain intangible assets. Second, looking at the first quarter, we typically see a seasonal increase in expense. This is driven by higher payroll costs resulting from the reset of social security taxes for employees who maxed out in 2025 and stock vesting from employee equity programs, which tend to be more heavily concentrated in the first quarter. Third, as we look to the second quarter, we expect operating expenses to remain relatively flat on a sequential basis. The savings realized from our restructuring and the roll off of the higher Q1 payroll taxes will be offset by our annual merit cycle, which takes effect on April 1. Moving to FX. Foreign currency markets are expected to remain volatile throughout 2026. As a reminder, we have approximately $1.3 billion in revenue that is denominated in foreign currency. Largest currency exposure on revenue includes the euro, the yen and the Great British pound. Finally, as previously noted, Cloud Infrastructure Services now accounts for approximately 50% of our total compute revenue and is growing rapidly. Recognizing CIS is the primary growth engine and a significant focus of our investments. For the compute business, we will begin reporting it as a stand-alone revenue category effective in the first quarter of 2026. For simplicity, we will consolidate delivery and other cloud apps into a single reporting category starting in Q1. To assist with your year-over-year analysis and financial modeling, we have published 8 quarters of revenue history, for these revenue categories and supplemental schedules as part of today's reporting package on our Investor Relations website. In addition, for added transparency, we will disclose quarterly revenue for OCA independently for the remainder of 2026. Now moving on to guidance. For the first quarter of 2026, we are projecting revenue in the range of $1.06 billion to $1.085 billion, up 4% to 7% as reported or 2% to 5% in constant currency over Q1 2025. We expect Q1 revenue to be lower sequentially from Q4, driven by the following factors. First, reduced onetime license revenue in Q1 from Q4 levels; second, 2 fewer calendar days in Q1 compared to Q4, plus 2 less days of usage revenue; and finally, less seasonal traffic in Q1 compared to Q4. The current spot rates, foreign exchange fluctuations are expected to have a positive $4 million impact on Q1 revenue compared to Q4 levels and a positive $22 million impact year-over-year. At these revenue levels, we expect cash gross margins of approximately 71% to 72%. Q1 non-GAAP operating expenses are projected to be $339 million to $348 million. We anticipate Q1 EBITDA margin of approximately 39% to 41%. We expect non-GAAP depreciation expense of $145 million to $147 million and we expect non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 26% to 27%. With the overall revenue and spend configuration I just outlined, we expect Q1 non-GAAP EPS in the range of $1.50 to $1.67. This EPS guidance assumes taxes of $57 million to $60 million based on an estimated quarterly non-GAAP tax rate of approximately 19%. It also reflects a fully diluted share count of approximately 148 million shares. Moving on to CapEx. The reason I highlighted earlier, we expect to spend approximately $254 million to $264 million in the first quarter. This represents approximately 23% to 25% of revenue. Looking ahead to the full year for 2026, we expect revenue of $4.4 billion to $4.55 billion, which is up 5% to 8% as reported and 4% to 7% in constant currency. Moving on to Security. We expect Security revenue to grow in the high single digits on a constant currency basis in 2026. The Cloud Infrastructure Services or CIS, we project revenue growth to accelerate to 45% to 50% year-over-year. We expect this momentum to build throughout the second half of 2026 driven mainly by the scaling of our AI Inference Cloud business. For delivery and other cloud apps, we expect both will decline in the mid-single digits year-over-year. Specific to delivery, we expect the revenue to decline in mid-single digits for the year, with Q1 being slightly higher due to the wraparound impact of the Edgio transaction from last year. By way of comparison and for consistency with 2025, using our former compute reporting methodology, we expect the combined growth of CIS and OCA to be at least 20% year-over-year. At current spot rates, our guidance assumes foreign exchange will have a positive $36 million impact on revenue in '26 on a year-over-year basis. Moving on to operating margins for 2026. We are estimating non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 26% to 28% as measured in today's FX rates. The decline in operating margin for the full year 2026 is due mainly to increased colocation and depreciation expense associated with the continued buildup of our CIS business. We anticipate that full year capital expenditures will be approximately 23% to 26% of total revenue, driven by the investments and costs that I mentioned earlier. As a percentage of total revenue, our 2026 CapEx is expected to be roughly broken down as follows: for network-related CapEx, we expect approximately 4% for our delivery & security business, approximately 10% to 13% for compute, and for other CapEx, we expect approximately 8% for capitalized software with the remainder being for IT and facilities related spending. Excluding the impact of the increased hardware pricing, 2026 CapEx would have trended within the 18% to 22% range. The impact of increased server costs is mainly included in the compute line item above. Moving to EPS. For the full year 2026, we expect non-GAAP earnings per diluted share in the range of $6.20 to $7.20. This non-GAAP earnings guidance is based on a non-GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 19% and a fully diluted share count of approximately 147 million shares. With that, I'll wrap things up. Tom and I are happy to take your questions. Operator?