Ed McGowan
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is now open
Thank you, Tom. As Tom outlined, Akamai delivered another excellent quarter in Q4. We were very pleased to exceed the high end of our guidance range on revenue and earnings. Q4 revenue was $846 million up 10% year-over-year or 8% in constant currency, driven by another quarter of very strong security growth, higher-than-expected gaming traffic and the weaker US dollar. Revenue from our Web Division was $438 million, up 5% year-over-year or 4% in constant currency. Revenue growth for this group of customers was again, led by our Security business. And while we saw a stronger than expected seasonal traffic growth from some of our retail and commerce customers, other customers in this vertical and in our travel and hospitality vertical continue to be negatively impacted by the pandemic. Revenue from our Media and Carrier Division was $408 million, up 15% year-over-year or 14% in constant currency. As noted, we benefited from higher than expected gaming and video traffic along with continued momentum in security. Revenue from the Internet platform customers was $58 million, up 11% from the prior year and above our expectations due to higher-than-expected traffic. Security revenue for the fourth quarter was $296 million, up 24% year-over-year and 23% in constant currency driven by continued global demand across our web security product portfolio and higher-than-expected revenue from our recently closed Asavie acquisition. Asavie we contributed approximately $8 million in Q4, driven by a combination of much-better-than-expected strength in the educational vertical and a faster-than-expected revenue ramp for a recently added carrier in the U.S. Foreign exchange fluctuations had a positive impact on revenue of $6 million on a sequential basis and positive $9 million on a year-over-year basis. International revenue was $379 million, up 16% year-over-year or 13% in constant currency. Sales in our international markets represented 45% of total revenue in Q4, up 3 points from Q4 2019 and consistent with Q3 levels. Finally, revenue from our U.S. market was $467 million up 5% year-over-year. Moving now to costs; cash gross margin was 76% in line with our expectations. GAAP gross margin, which includes both depreciation and stock-based compensation was 64%, non-GAAP cash operating expenses were $280 million, slightly above our guidance in part due to higher sales commissions given the revenue outperformance we saw in Q4. Moving on to profitability. Adjusted EBITDA was $364 million, a $45 million or 14% from the same period in 2019. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 43%, up 2 points from Q4 2019. Non-GAAP operating income was $256 million, up $34 million or 15% in the same period last year. Non-GAAP operating margin came in at 30%, up 1 point from last year and in line with our guidance. Capital expenditures in Q4 excluding equity compensation and capitalized interest expense were $195 million. GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $113 million or $0.68 of earnings per diluted share. It is worth noting that our Q4 GAAP results include two one-time items, a $27 million restructuring charge primarily related to the company realignment as Tom mentioned and a $20 million additional endowment to the Akamai Foundation. Non-GAAP net income was $220 million or $1.33 of earnings per diluted share, up 8% year-over-year, up 6% in constant currency, and $0.01 above the high-end of our guidance range due to higher-than-expected revenues. Taxes included in our non-GAAP earnings were $39 million based on a Q4 effective tax rate of approximately 15%. Now, I will discuss some balance sheet items. As of December 31st, our cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled approximately $2.5 billion. After accounting for the $2.3 billion of combined principal amounts of our two convertible notes, net cash was approximately $197 million as of December 31st. Now, I'll review our use of capital. During the fourth quarter, we spent $73 million to repurchase shares, buying back approximately 700,000 shares. We ended Q4 with approximately $572 million remaining on our previously announced share repurchase authorization. Our long-term plan remains to leverage our share buyback program to offset dilution resulting from equity compensation over time. I'm very proud of all of our employees who delivered these outstanding Q4 and 2020 results, especially during a very challenging year for us all. Now before I provide guidance, I thought it would be helpful to talk about how we see the year unfolding and highlight some key items you may want to consider as you build your models. Our revenue outlook assumes that the pandemic-related impacts to areas like work-from-home and travel will last at least for the first half of 2021. As a result, we expect to see continued challenges in our retail and travel verticals. From a traffic perspective, as life returns to a more normalized pre-pandemic state, we do not expect to see our traffic on our platform decrease. We believe the pandemic has accelerated consumer usage of the Internet in areas like OTT video, gaming, and e-commerce and we believe this usage pattern will likely persist going forward. However, we expect to see traffic continue to grow in 2021, but at a rate more in line with pre-2020 historical levels. In addition to revenue, there are some other items we expect in 2021 that are worth calling out. First, in 2020, our travel and related expenses were much lower than normal. Our guidance assumes that these expenses begin to return to a more normalized level beginning in the second half of 2021. Second, in light of the recent decline in interest rates, we expect our interest income to decline on a year-over-year basis. Specifically, we expect interest income to be about $8 million lower year-over-year, which will have a negative impact of about $0.05 on our non-GAAP earnings per share compared with 2020. Third, I wanted to remind you of the typical seasonality that we experience on the top and bottom lines. In the first quarter, we usually see a revenue step-down sequentially from Q4, our strong seasonal quarter. Also in Q1, remember that our employee payroll taxes and 401(k) matching programs reset. These costs will decline throughout the year as employees begin to max out. Finally, as Tom mentioned earlier, we are reorganizing the company around a product-driven group structure and moving away from the current vertically aligned division structure. In Q1, we will report revenue results under the new edge technology and security technology groups as Tom outlined. The revenue splits will look familiar to you as they align to our current CDN on other and cloud security revenue reporting that we have historically provided. To assist with the transition, we will continue to report web and Media and Carrier Division results on our website for the balance of 2021. And finally, as a result of the reorganization, we expect to record an additional restructuring charge of approximately $7 million in Q1. Looking ahead to full-year, we expect revenue of $3.37 billion to $3.42 billion, which is up 4% to 6% year-over-year in constant currency. This outlook assumes that foreign exchange contributes about $45 million on a year-over-year basis. We expect security revenue growth in the range of 18% to 20% over 2020 levels. We also expect non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 30%, we expect non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $5.33 to $5.46. And this non-GAAP earnings guidance is based on a non-GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 15% and a fully diluted share count of approximately 165 million shares. And finally, full-year CapEx is expected to be approximately 16% of revenue. This is down 7 points year-over-year as we expect to leverage the significant network capacity investment we made in 2019 and 2020. Moving on to Q1 guidance. We are projecting Q1 revenue in the range of $822 million to $836 million, or up 5% to 7% in constant currency over Q1 2020. The current spot rates, foreign exchange fluctuations are expected to have a positive $4 million impact on Q1 revenue compared to Q4 levels and a positive $16 million impact year-over-year. At these revenue levels, we expect cash gross margins of approximately 76%. Q1 non-GAAP operating expenses are projected to be $265 million to $270 million. We anticipate Q1 EBITDA margins of approximately 44%. And now, moving on to depreciation. We expect non-GAAP depreciation expense to be between $111 million to $112 million. Factoring in this guidance, we expect non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 30% for Q1. Moving on to CapEx; we expect to spend approximately $150 million to $155 million excluding equity compensation in the first quarter. And with the overall revenue and spend configuration I just outlined, we expect Q1 non-GAAP EPS in the range of $1.28 to $1.31. This EPS guidance assumes taxes of approximately $37 million to $38 million based on an estimated quarterly non-GAAP tax rate of approximately 15%. It also reflects a fully diluted share count of approximately 165 million shares. In summary, as you heard Tom highlight, we achieved several significant milestones in 2020 including delivering 11% top-line revenue growth with total revenue exceeding $3 billion for the first time in company history. Growing security revenue 25% and surpassing $1 billion, exceeding our 30% operating margin target, and generating non-GAAP EPS of more than $5 a share. We are very pleased with our performance in 2020 and we believe we're well-positioned for 2021. We look forward to provide any of a deeper look into our business and our plans for the future at our upcoming Investor Summit on February 25th. Thank you. Tom and I would be happy to take your questions. Operator?