Edward McGowan
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, Tom. As Tom outlined, Akamai delivered another great quarter in Q4. We exceeded the high end of our guidance range on revenue and earnings. Q4 revenue was $772 million, up 8% year-over-year or 9% in constant currency, driven by continued strong security growth and higher-than-expected holiday traffic in our media and commerce verticals. As I mentioned on our last call, holiday seasonality from e-commerce and traffic from our large media customers could play a large role in our Q4 performance, and it did. Revenue from our Web Division was $420 million, up 9% year-over-year and 9% in constant currency. Revenue growth from this group of customers was again driven by our Security business as well as higher-than-expected holiday e-commerce traffic. Revenue from our Media and Carrier Division was $353 million, up 8% year-over-year and 8% in constant currency. The better-than-expected growth in Media came mainly from strong OTT video traffic. Revenue from our Internet platform customers was $52 million, up 20% from the prior year. It is worth noting that Q4 benefited from approximately $6 million of event-specific revenue that we do not expect to reoccur in Q1. Security revenue across the company continued to be very strong, and for the fourth quarter, was $238 million, up 29% year-over-year and 29% in constant currency. Moving on to revenue by geography, international revenue was $326 million in the fourth quarter, up 17% year-over-year or 18% in constant currency. Foreign exchange fluctuations had very little impact on revenue on a sequential basis, but had a negative impact of $3 million on a year-over-year basis. Sales in our international markets represented 42% of total revenue, up 3 points from Q4 2018 and consistent with Q3 levels. Finally, revenue from our U.S. market was $446 million, up 3% year-over-year. Moving now to costs. Cash gross margin was 78%, roughly flat with Q3 levels but down 1 point from the same period last year. GAAP gross margin, which includes both depreciation and stock-based compensation, was 67%, up 2 points from Q3 levels. Non-GAAP cash operating expenses were $285 million, up from Q3 levels and slightly higher than our guidance due primarily to higher commissions and employee bonus expense. Now moving on to profitability. Adjusted EBITDA was $319 million, up $18 million from Q3 and up 6% from the same period in 2018. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 41%, in line with our guidance but down 1 point from Q3 and down 1 point from Q4 in 2018. Non-GAAP operating income was $222 million, up $14 million from Q3 levels and up $21 million or 10% from the same period last year. Non-GAAP operating margin came in at 29%, consistent with Q3 levels and up 1 point from Q4 last year. Capital expenditures in Q4, excluding equity compensation and capitalized interest expense, were $173 million. This was higher than our guidance range due to increased network investment in anticipation of continued demand from our OTT and gaming customers. Moving on to earnings. It is worth noting that our Q4 GAAP results include a $10 million restructuring charge, and we expect to record an additional restructuring charge of approximately $4 million to $7 million in Q1 of 2020. These charges are primarily related to reductions of approximately 1% of our global workforce. It is important to note, these restructuring actions are being taken to enable some rebalancing of our investments, de-investing in some areas and investing in others and to position the company to meet our long-term goals of continued growth and scale. Also included in our restructuring charges are some small capitalized software impairments related to projects we no longer feel provide adequate return on our investment. Therefore, GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $119 million or $0.73 of earnings per diluted share. Non-GAAP net income was $202 million or $1.23 of earnings per diluted share, up 15% year-over-year, up 16% in constant currency and $0.08 above the high end of our guidance range. This outperformance was driven by higher-than-expected revenue and a lower non-GAAP effective tax rate due to higher-than-expected foreign earnings. Taxes included in our non-GAAP earnings were $30 million based on a Q4 effective tax rate of 13%. Now I will discuss some balance sheet items. We continue to have a very strong balance sheet. As of December 31, our cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $2.4 billion. Our total debt at the end of Q4 was $2.3 billion, unchanged from the end of Q3. Now I will review our use of capital. During the fourth quarter, we spent $43 million to repurchase shares, buying back approximately 500,000 shares. We have approximately $765 million remaining on our previously announced share repurchase authorization. Our plan for 2020 is to continue to leverage our share buyback program to fully offset dilution resulting from equity compensation. As we said in prior quarters, we plan to remain active but disciplined in pursuing additional M&A, and we believe that our strong balance sheet provides us with strategic flexibility to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. We also believe our capital allocation approach will allow us to continue to drive shareholder value through investing organically in the business, pursuing M&A and continued share repurchases. In summary, we are very pleased with our Q4 and 2019 results, and we remain confident in our ability to execute on our plans in 2020 and for the long term. I'd now like to provide guidance for full year 2020 as well as for the first quarter. Looking ahead to the full year, we expect revenue in the range of $3.055 billion to $3.105 billion, with over $1 billion of that coming from our Security business. We expect adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 43%, and we expect non-GAAP operating margin of 30%. We expect non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $4.80 to $4.95. This represents year-over-year growth of 7% to 10% and 9% to 12% on a constant currency basis. This non-GAAP earnings guidance is based on a non-GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 15.5% to 16.5% and a fully diluted share count of approximately 164 million shares. Moving on to CapEx. Full year CapEx is expected to be 18% to 20% of revenue. We again expect full year CapEx to be higher than normal due to the continued investment in our network capacity. Before I move on to Q1 guidance, I thought it would be helpful to talk about how we see the year unfolding. Now I will highlight some key items that you may want to think about as you build your models. In the first quarter, we typically see revenue step down sequentially as Q4 is our strongest seasonal quarter. Q4 2019 was a notably strong seasonal quarter. It also included some onetime event revenue, which I mentioned earlier. On the expense side, remember that Q1, our employee payroll taxes and 401(k) matching expense reset, costs that will decline throughout the year. In addition, we won't see the full benefit of the restructuring efforts mentioned earlier until Q2. So we expect operating margins to be at the lowest level in Q1 and improved throughout the year. As we look to Q2 and beyond, there are a few other factors to take into account. In addition to more global expansion of existing OTT offerings that have been announced for later this year, we are aware of several new direct-to-consumer OTT launches planned for late spring and early summer. 2020 also includes a summer Olympics in Q3 as well as the U.S. presidential election cycle, which typically drives elevated traffic levels in Q3 and Q4. Finally, we expect Q4 to once again be our strongest seasonal quarter. So with that as a guide, I will provide specific Q1 guidance. We are projecting Q1 revenue in the range of $741 million to $755 million or up 6% to 8% in constant currency over Q1 2019. At current spot rates, foreign exchange fluctuations are expected to have a negative $1 million impact on Q1 revenue compared to Q4 levels and having negative $5 million impact on a year-over-year basis. At these revenue levels, we expect cash gross margins of 77%. Q1 non-GAAP operating expenses are projected to be $258 million to $262 million. The decrease in cost over Q4 levels is due mostly to lower incentive compensation-related expenses. Factoring in the cash gross margin and operating expense expectations I just provided, we anticipate Q1 EBITDA margins of approximately 42%. Moving now to depreciation. We expect non-GAAP depreciation expense to be between $97 million to $99 million, and we expect non-GAAP operating margin of approximately 29% for Q1. Moving on to CapEx. We expect to spend approximately $139 million to $149 million, excluding equity compensation in the first quarter. This reflects the continued network investments I mentioned previously. And with the overall revenue and spend configuration I just outlined, we expect Q1 non-GAAP EPS in the range of $1.13 to $1.18 or up 5% to 9% in constant currency. This EPS guidance assumes taxes of approximately $35 million based on an estimated quarterly non-GAAP tax rate of approximately 16%. And it also reflects a fully diluted share count of approximately 164 million shares. In summary, we are very pleased with our business performance and with our positioning as we look forward to 2020. Thank you. Tom and I would be happy to take your questions. Operator?