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Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 12, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Akamai Technologies Q4 and Fiscal 2018 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following management's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session and our instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded for replay purposes. It is now my pleasure hand the conference over to Tom Barth, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Tom Barth

Analyst

Thank you, Bryan, and good afternoon, everyone, and we appreciate you joining Akamai's fourth quarter and fiscal year end 2018 earnings conference call. Speaking today will be Tom Leighton, Akamai's Chief Executive Officer; Jim Benson, Akamai's Chief Financial Officer; and Ed McGowan, Akamai's Senior Vice President of Finance. Before we get started, please note that today's comments include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding revenue and earnings guidance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and involve a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in Akamai's filings with the SEC, including our Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. The forward-looking statements included in this call represent the company's view on February 12, 2019. Akamai disclaims any obligation to update these statements to reflect future events or circumstances. As a reminder, we will be referring to some non-GAAP financial metrics during today's call. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP metrics can be found under the financial portion of the Investor Relations section of akamai.com. And with that, let me turn the call over to Tom.

Tom Leighton

Analyst

Thanks Tom. And thank you all for joining us today. Akamai delivered excellent results in the fourth quarter. Revenue was $713 million up 8% over Q4 2017 and up 10% in constant currency. Q4 non-GAAP EPS was $1.07 per diluted share up 51% year-over-year and up 52% in constant currency. These very strong results were driven by the continued rapid growth of our security business; the continued improvement in our media and carrier division; and a robust holiday commerce season in our Web Division. Our bottom-line also benefited from a lower tax rate and from our continued focus on operational excellence. EBITDA margins in Q4 expanded to 42% and non-GAAP operating margins expanded to 28%. Q4 marked our fifth consecutive quarter of increasing margins and we anticipate further margin expansion in 2019. We also have clear line of sight to achieving non-GAAP operating margins of 30% in 2020, while continuing to invest in innovation and new products to drive our future growth. For the full year, revenue was $2.7 billion up 9% over the prior year. Non-GAAP EPS for 2018 was $3.62 up a $1 or 38% over 2017. We're especially pleased to report that we generated over $1 billion in cash from operations last year. This was up 26% over 2017 and represented 37% of our revenue. In Q4, our security portfolio continued to be the fastest growing part of our business with revenue of $185 million up a very strong 38% year-over-year in constant currency. Security accounted for 26% of our total revenue last quarter and our Security business exited 2018 with a revenue run rate of $750 million per year. We now expect our security business to top the $1 billion mark in annualized revenues in 2020. That's a remarkable milestone, but we're not planning to stop…

Jim Benson

Analyst

Thank you for the kind words Tom, and good afternoon everyone. This is a great team here at Akamai and I am very proud of what we've accomplished over the last nine years. With revenues approaching $3 billion a year a rapidly growing security business with the $750 million annualized run rate, a more diversified portfolio that I believe positioned Akamai for long-term success, industry leading profitability and a consistent focus on managing the business for the long-term while delivering results in the near-term. As I approach my 10th year helping to lead and drive the business and after discussing my desire to make a change with Tom, I've decided this is the ideal time for Akamai to transition to the next CFO to lead our next phase of continued growth and expansion. The company has been demonstrating strong business results. We have a very talented finance team and bench in place and there are many exciting future growth opportunities ahead. I am very pleased to be turning the reins over to Ed McGowan, who I have worked with over the past nine years most recently as my Senior Vice President of Finance. I'm looking forward to helping Ed, Tom and the team in the near-term spending some more time with my family and considering my next professional challenge. I am confident that this transition will be seamless. With that, let me now dive into the details of our strong Q4 financial results. As Akamai -- as Tom outlined, Akamai continued to perform well and had an exceptional fourth quarter closing out a fantastic 2018. We exceeded the high-end of our guidance on revenues, operating margins and earnings and delivered substantial operating margin improvements for the fifth consecutive quarter. We continued to execute well and to demonstrate the leverage in…

Ed McGowan

Analyst

Thanks Jim. It's been a pleasure working closely with you over the past nine years. I look forward to following your example of professionalism and business leadership in years ahead. Before I move on to guidance, there are three housekeeping items that I wanted to highlight. The first relates to a change in our network server useful lives as some of you may recall, we announced on our Q4 2012 earnings call that we were required to extend the useful life of our network servers from three years to four years based on the actual server useful life trends. We carefully monitor the useful lives of all of our capital assets annually and based on the outcome of that review; we now need to extend the useful lives of our network servers from four years to five years, similar to when we made the change six years ago. This extended useful life is a direct result of the continued software and hardware initiatives that we have put in place to manage our global network more efficiently because we are now using our servers in our network for an average of five years, we have determined it is appropriate under GAAP accounting to adjust our useful life policy to five years and this change will be effective in Q1. Please keep in mind this change has no impact on cash flow, but will result in roughly a $24 million depreciation benefit in 2019 and a benefit of approximately $7 million in 2020. We have provided a supplemental table in the Investor Relations section of our Web site that details the impact of this change. Also during Q1, we closed on our recently announced acquisition of Janrain. As we previously stated, Janrain will be approximately $0.05 to $0.06 dilutive to non-GAAP EPS…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from James Breen with William Blair. Your line is now open.

James Breen

Analyst

Thanks for taking the question. Just can you talk about the security business and how you've seen the sales go between sort of the core DDoS, and then, some of the other products that you've sold. From a customer perspective what types of products taking all services from you guys? Thanks.

Tom Leighton

Analyst

Yes. We're seeing strong adoption across the board starting with DDoS, then we have Kona Site Defender, which protects applications from being corrupted or taken over or the Web site content from being corrupted, theft during transactions. Bot Manager as we've talked about before is our fastest new selling product and memory. The majority of transactions today are no longer human. There's bots and particularly the bots are trying to take over user accounts. The vast majority of log-ins today are not legitimate people but bots who are trying out stolen credentials. So very strong adoption across the board, and we're starting to get traction now with our Zero Trust Enterprise Security Solution. As I mentioned we signed up our first $1 million a year customer. And what was really nice about that is it came from an account that would never have likely bought our normal content delivery, Web acceleration products. So, the security business just across the board is doing very well.

James Breen

Analyst

From a growth perspective, is growth coming from -- or can you give a little color on where it's coming from new customers versus existing customers taking more volumes?

Tom Leighton

Analyst

It's both. The large fraction of our new customer bookings are for security today and we are getting good up sell with the new products within the existing base. For example, Bot Manager being a new product with our enterprise security offerings, early days, but there's both new customers like the one that became our $1 million customer, they weren't a customer before, but also selling that within existing accounts. So, I would say both are strong new customers and upselling the new security offerings within existing accounts.

James Breen

Analyst

Great thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from line of Brad Zelnick with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

Brad Zelnick

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much for taking my questions. Congrats on a great Q4. And Jim it's been great working with you and we look forward to working with Ed, so congrats on a great run there.

Jim Benson

Analyst

Thank you.

Brad Zelnick

Analyst

You're welcome. Just a follow on the cloud security question, cloud security remains really impressive. How should we think about the sustainability and the visibility that you have here to the growth? And can you comment on pricing trends for WAF and DDoS in the market?

Tom Leighton

Analyst

Yes. We anticipate continuing a very strong growth rate probably not in the 30s over the next couple of years, but I would say certainly in the mid-20%. We did benefit last year from the acquisition of Nominum and their security products, which are doing quite well, but with the acquisition we got a boost in 2018. In terms of pricing; the pricing is very strong. We have unique capabilities and they are very much needed by major enterprises. So, we're in a very strong position there to be able to maintain growth.

Brad Zelnick

Analyst

Thank you. And Jim, just to follow-up or add perhaps, in Tom's remarks, he had mentioned that you'd spent less on network costs in 2018 than in the prior year and Jim in your prepared remarks as well. You talked about efficiencies with bandwidth and qualification costs. Can you just remind us once again the sources of efficiencies along the entire stack? And how you're able to do that and what the limits of these are as we look out into achieving 30% and perhaps even beyond in the years to come?

Jim Benson

Analyst

That's a great question. I mean this is not new for Akamai as you know. We've made tremendous progress on network efficiencies for a long, long time. And some of the things we've talked about in the past have been, we continue to implement new software to get more throughput out of our servers. And so, you certainly saw that I think because of our breadth and the amount of traffic that we serve from a bandwidth perspective, we get very favorable bandwidth pricing and in some cases, we actually get free bandwidth for our customers. The same is true for co-location that we've been able to reduce our co-location spend by reducing the footprint and getting more throughput out of the servers as I mentioned. So, I would say it's not new. It's something we've been doing for quite some time. We continue to work on engineering innovation to continue to drive that. We continue to work on things around negotiations with providers and I expect those things will continue Brad. I do think that as I outlined at our Investor Day in June that I expected that network costs and our gross margins on a cash basis would be in the high 70s. And we're ahead of where I expected to be. So, I think we should be able to stabilize those margins from where they are. And as I outlined before that on the path of 30, we're pretty close. We'll call it -- we're at roughly 28% now. And we think we're going to be able drive more efficiency out of G&A in particular. We're building out a new procurement set of capabilities and we're going to be able to drive more procurement savings we've done some facility consolidation. We'll continue to do that and we're driving some IT enablement that will allow us to take more G&A costs out. So primarily kind of going forward mostly from G&A. I'd say we're also getting some efficiencies on the go-to-market side as we build out a more efficient go-to-market model in both our Web and our media division. And so, I mean that's not going to be the bulk of where the incremental margin is going to come from it's going to largely come from G&A, but you'll also see continued improvements within sales and marketing spend.

Brad Zelnick

Analyst

That's really helpful. But just to be clear, the tick up in CapEx in 2019, that's really just due to the $100 million one-time expenditure towards the new headquarters, correct?

Jim Benson

Analyst

Yes. Yes. And I outlined at the Analyst Day that we'd have a big uptick kind of one-time for the new Cambridge headquarters. If you -- I think Ed outlined in his prepared remarks that if you actually adjust for that, we're actually well in line with our model that we've outlined a kind of 15% to 16% of revenue. So, the uptick in CapEx is all Cambridge headquarter related.

Brad Zelnick

Analyst

Perfect. Thank you so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Tim Horan with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.

Tim Horan

Analyst

Thanks guys. Tom can you give us an update on your major hyperscale customers essentially. Where are they with do-it-yourself, do you think you're pulling ahead in terms of technology and cost capabilities versus them? And maybe the same color with some of the sort of competitors that are out there. Thank you.

Tom Leighton

Analyst

Yes. Some of the largest Internet platform companies have do-it-yourself efforts. They are used for large software downloads, some basic delivery. Our services we believe are a lot more effective at doing this offer, a lot more scalability and higher quality and that's the reason there's so few of the companies that really could think about affording to do what themselves because that's a big cost for them. I don't see any fundamental change in that landscape. In general, the competitive landscape as a whole hasn't really changed all that much. There's a lot of competitors, the folks that have been doing CDM for a long, long time, plenty of startups out there trying to get in the business. And of course, the do-it-yourself. No fundamental change. We, I think continue to gain share and we do that through superior performance, competitive pricing, the largest scale that's available on the Internet and increasingly our security solutions are very helpful for us in terms of gaining share especially with the performance solutions. We sell packages protect and perform, in the same platform that accelerates the side or delivers the content secures it and security is really important for our customers and nobody really is in a position to offer the kinds of capabilities that we do there.

Tim Horan

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Your line is now open.

Colby Synesael

Analyst

Great. Thank you. A few questions on growth. I was hoping you can give us what the organic growth was in 2018, so backing out the benefit from some of the acquisitions that occurred in parts of 2017. And then, also what the implied organic revenue growth is for 2019 and maybe as part of that just what your assumptions are for Janrain. And then, my other question just has to do with the performance segment, I know you don't break that out anymore, but when you give your guidance for 2019, what is your just broad expectations or assumptions for that that went into that. Thank you.

Ed McGowan

Analyst

Yes, sure. This is Ed. In terms of our organic growth last year, it's [4.7%] [ph]. If you look at Nominum headed about $40 million roughly last year to the growth rate. As far as our expectations around Janrain expecting it to be approximately $20 million not significant for 2019 in terms of revenue. But we do expect to get significant traction in the marketplace with our customers and expect to see significant growth going into 2020 in new Janrain products. And as far as the organic growth, now, we're expecting [cyber] [ph] security solutions to be growing in the mid 20s as Tom talked about it and if you do the math on that basically it would suggest that the CDM and other business is roughly flat and a lot of that is driven by trends that we're seeing in media. We had a very tough compare this year in terms of media, in terms of the gaming sector. We have a number of large renewals in the first half of the year. We've got some industry consolidation that's really adding to the impact of some of those renewals and a lot of these deals were put in place about 18 to 24 months. So, I'd say that's really normal things that you see in the media and entertainment place. As far as the Web Division, we are continuing to see a little bit of pressure here in the commerce space as we talked about in the past and that's really what's adding to the flattening of our CDN and other business. We do expect to see that return to growth in 2020 as we expect to see a significant uptick in our media business going to 2020.

Colby Synesael

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Charlie Erlikh with Baird. Your line is now open.

Charlie Erlikh

Analyst

Great. Thanks. I wanted to ask a question about the enterprise security products specifically. In the past, compared those enterprise -- I guess the enterprise business to what the security business was in its early days. And I just wanted to ask I guess, how the enterprise business has been doing so far relative to those expectations. So, I guess the question is, how is the adoption the bookings and the overall interest been relative to your initial expectations for that enterprise business.

Tom Leighton

Analyst

Doing very well. Obviously, early days, but we had very strong bookings this year up substantially over 2017. And so, and we're anticipating even stronger bookings next year. So, I would say we're very pleased with the progress in enterprise security. I think in the long run, it should be a bigger business than the Web security business. You think about enterprises more of them, almost all of them in fact care about enterprise security. And only really certain verticals are focused on Web security, which is our current product set. And the amount of money that enterprises spend today on firewalls and trying to prevent data breaches is much greater than what companies will spend on securing a Web site. So, I think the market's bigger and I think we're really at the cusp of a major change in how enterprises secure themselves. The notion of Zero Trust what everybody is talking about that now. Take years for enterprises really to fully make the transition, but the first customers now are embracing that and adopting Zero Trust Solutions. So, I think a very exciting future.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Sterling Auty with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Sterling Auty

Analyst

Yes. Thanks. Hi guys. First, Jim congratulations on completing a great tenure as CFO and Ed congratulations on your promotion.

Jim Benson

Analyst

Thank you, Sterling.

Sterling Auty

Analyst

And then, in terms of, you talked about the different detail around the growth dynamics into 2019. I think that's very helpful. But you did mention in the prepared remarks especially the OTT strength and with preparation some of the launches that have gone on. What are you seeing in terms of the uptick there and is the pricing in those opportunities different than what you've seen in traditional media delivery?

Tom Leighton

Analyst

Yes. So, a couple of things there. And I'll start with the back, the last part of the question around pricing. Really pricing in the media space is really driven by volume. So, there's really no difference in terms of high volume with OTT customer or high-volume software download customer. We do tend to get additional value on our OTT space from security sales and professional services et cetera. But in terms of the traffic expectations as we look at the guidance, we take a look at the customers that we have today, we've got pretty good trends and track record in terms of understanding how their businesses grow. As we look out, I talked a little bit about some of the launches that may be coming at the back half of '19 and '20. We tend to take a bit of a conservative approach there for a variety of reasons. Many of the things that go into an OTT launch that went past us really revolve around traffic growth and there's a lot to think about in terms of the exact date of the launch, sometimes launches can be moved. It is very complex technology and workflows that are involved. Sometimes customers want to launch them either in a limited fashion. It's really not until it gets to be a service that is a market that we really get a good handle in terms of what we expect in terms of volumes. Also, other things that impacted is the service of paid subscription services is ad supported, what is the user adoption, what's our share of traffic, what's the engagement time of the user, what's the bit rate? So, as we look at 2019 any of these OTT offerings that are coming in the back half of the year were very, very conservative in terms of the adoption rate, the impact on outcome.

Sterling Auty

Analyst

Okay. All right. That makes sense to me. And then, one follow-up would be, you gave the 28% operating income margin guide for 2019. I want to make sure I'm thinking about this the right way. What would that guidance have been under the old depreciation rules in terms of the four years instead of five years?

Ed McGowan

Analyst

Yes. I said it's about $24 million FX, so it's a little less than a point. Yes, keep in mind also that I mentioned that we're taking on Janrain as well, so included in the guidance was the impact of Janrain. So, you'd have to add that back-in. So, if you add those two things roughly [net each other out] [ph].

Sterling Auty

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Keith Weiss

Analyst

Thank you, guys for taking the question and a nice quarter. Two questions from me, one, just more broadly and I guess this is a question for Ed. Kind of walk us through again sign of where you guys get the confidence to sort of this for accelerating growth into 2020? And I mean forecasting is top [or saying] [ph] two years is really tough. But what are the kind of like mechanical things that you can see better growth in 2020? And then, one, this is probably for Tom. How do you enter in 2019? How do you feel about sort of your sales forces ability to sell outside of your traditional customer? I mean like the selling point within a customer of going from the guy who's traditionally in charge of the Web site to now selling directly to a [indiscernible] or just selling to other guys within the organization who hasn't traditionally been be the sweet spot for Akamai.

Ed McGowan

Analyst

Sure. I'll take the 2020, the confidence there. So, one thing to think about -- I will talk about media first and I'll get into the Web in a second. If you think about media, there is a odd year, even year phenomenon and I talked about in the prepared remarks that 2020 will have additional events for us that we won't see in '19. And one of the reasons why our growth rate is a little bit lower in the media business this year is the fact that we did have some large events in 2018. That's one thing. The other thing I mentioned was the -- some of the big renewals that are coming up and I touched a bit on the consolidation in the industry there's been some very, very big consolidation. And there you're taking, that will be a bit more of a decline in terms of your prices due to the fact that you've got no additional volume that's added when you put the two companies together. And also, there are a number of services for example, the companies might have professional services engagements and whittle that down to one et cetera. But these things are very temporary. And what we see is you see a decline in the business. And then as traffic ramps you see revenue grow again so that that's one thing. The other thing is that we've seen some significant security growth in both of our verticals. But sticking with media, we made a change back in the beginning of the year and our compensation plans and we saw a significant increase in our revenue from security and there's still a tremendous amount of wide space there to go. And then, in terms of the OTT offerings I talked about, if…

Keith Weiss

Analyst

That's super helpful.

Tom Leighton

Analyst

And on your question about selling the security solutions, we've made a lot of progress there. Pretty much all of the sales force is expected to be able to sell security solutions and they're doing that with the Kona sales, the CSO, with a security organization pretty much always involved there even though that's sold to for the Web site. With the Bot Manager product and being all about fraud prevention there that's the security organization typically heavily engaged with that. Prolexic that's a data center protection level sale really nothing to do with the Web site per se. It protects all the assets in the data center. So, there we're dealing with the data center networking security side of the house. We're putting a lot of effort in our marketing to get better known as a security company. Past year we hired a new Global Head of Web Sales, Scott Lovett who's well-known as a security expert. In fact, the large majority of our new customer bookings are led by security now. So, I would say we're doing very well and making the transition in terms of a sales force that sells CDN to a sales force that sells security. Now the Zero Trust Solutions is the next step in that direction. And we're off to a good start there.

Keith Weiss

Analyst

Thanks. That sounds great. Thanks a lot guys.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Brandon Nispel

Analyst

Great. Thank you. Thanks for taking the question. I'm going to ask a growth question again. So, you mentioned the CDN business will be flat in 2019, but return to growth in 2020 due to the big events. What do you think is sort of two-year stacked growth rate and what's sustainable in that business over a multi-year timespan? That's one. And two, just to be clear, I guess more of a housekeeping, does your guidance embed pricing declines from some of the consolidation that's going on? Thanks.

Ed McGowan

Analyst

Sure. I'll take the last question. This is Ed. I'll take the last question first. Yes, we did embed the expected pricing declines in our guidance. In terms of the core CDN business, if you look at our core CDN business excluding net giants just as the giants can sometimes skew some of the results. They grew at about 4% in '17 and above 4% and '18. We're calling for roughly a flat year here as we go through some of the items that I talked about and then a return to growth. So, I think looking at that trend low single digits is probably the right way to think about that business. I think one of things that Jim pointed out some of their cost initiatives that are going on in that business, it is a very profitable business for us and it's something that we're going to continue to optimize as we go forward. And really in terms of the next big leg up in growth OTT once that becomes a significant portion of users viewing time that's the decision to begin to accelerate.

Brandon Nispel

Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Michael Turits with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Michael Turits

Analyst

Hey, guys. Good evening. Thanks for taking my question. Jim of course congratulations to you and a privilege working with you, and Ed, welcome to the slot and congratulations as well.

Jim Benson

Analyst

Thank you.

Michael Turits

Analyst

Two questions, one on CDN, one on security. First, one on CDN, in terms that that flattish growth for 2019. Is that any different in terms of the growth expectation for the media delivery piece as opposed to the Web performance piece within the CDN segment?

Tom Leighton

Analyst

Yes. So, it's roughly the same, Michael. Give or take a percentage point or two.

Michael Turits

Analyst

Right. So, it sounds like that's maybe a slightly an improvement maybe in performance stabilizing a bit?

Tom Leighton

Analyst

I would say it's more stabilizing a bit.

Michael Turits

Analyst

All right. And then, my next question is on Security. So, security isn't great. As you pointed out it's about $750 million run rate and you're looking to get it to $1 billion by 2020. But I think it's probably been mostly WAF and DDoS up to this point. But, the combined market for those two is only about $2 billion. So, it seems as if we're going to get to $1 billion yourself. Unlikely you'd be 50% of that market, so you must be anticipating a really good contribution outside of WAF and DDoS. Can you give us some sense for how big you think the non WAF and DDoS piece of your security business could be by 2020?

Tom Leighton

Analyst

I think the vast majority of it will be WAF and DDoS in 2020. We do command a very strong share because we have really unique capabilities there in the market. Now that said, over the longer term we're looking for the non-WAF items particularly enterprise security, Zero Trust to drive a lot of growth. We also get smaller contributions would be from Nominum with their enterprise security solutions that we sell actually to carriers and they provide it as a channel. And there's smaller pieces here and there with the fast DNS, but the vast majority is WAF and DDoS. And I think it'll take a little bit of time for the other pieces really, which will be led by enterprise security and the Zero Trust solutions to be a big share of that. I would count Bot Manager as part of WAF, when I say Bot Manager that's part of WAF because that's a very fast growing product and that's a pretty good share of what we'll see in 2020.

Michael Turits

Analyst

Great Tom. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Robert Gutman with Guggenheim. Your line is now open.

Robert Gutman

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I was just wondering in the non-GAAP operating margin guidance for the year, is there anything else that's one time holding that back besides the depreciation in Janrain anything related to headquarters or is that all in CapEx?

Jim Benson

Analyst

Yes. So, as I mentioned in Q3, we'll start to see the rent expense hits in Q3 associated with the new headquarters building. Other than that there's really no onetime items in it. Obviously, as I mentioned the Limelight patent royalty going away in Q3, but other than that there's really no other onetime items. But Janrain is also something that you need to -- keep into consideration as well in margin guidance.

Robert Gutman

Analyst

Got it. Thank you

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Mark Mahaney RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Mark Mahaney

Analyst

I want to follow up on some of the -- two of the OTT questions. Could you at least ring fence the opportunity in OTT for Akamai in kind of leaving aside the timing? How much of an incremental opportunity you see this some of the launches are relatively well publicized as to who hopes to launch an OTT service, but just maybe not talking specifically about customers, but whether any of those potential launches that are clear opportunities for you or some that just aren't because you don't -- you have never with that company. Just ring fence the opportunity both on the low side and high side in 2020 and 2021? Thank you.

Tom Leighton

Analyst

Yes. Without talking about timing, we work with all the companies that have been rumored to have OTT offers. When Ed talked about before, it's really hard to predict timing and scale success, adoption and those kinds of things. So, we tend to take a pretty conservative view there in terms of our guidance. I think if you look longer term in what could be on a global basis for OTT, there's tremendous opportunity for growth. If you get to the point where the majority of TV or video watching is done online, which a lot of people think will happen and it's done at high quality say at least 10 megabits per second. There's the opportunity for orders of magnitude of increased traffic. Now timing on that is really hard to predict. As you know there's a couple of companies that either do it all themselves and so we don't participate in their revenue, but for the large majority of the OTT providers those that are setting up new services both here and globally. We have very good relationships and are in a position to benefit.

Mark Mahaney

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Tom Barth

Analyst

Operator, we have time for probably one more question.

Operator

Operator

Yes, sir. Our last question will come Sameet Sinha with B. Riley FBR. Your line is now open.

Sameet Sinha

Analyst

Yes. Thank you very much. And Jim and Ed congratulations on your next steps. A couple of questions here. Saw some nice leverage on the R&D line in the fourth quarter. Can you speak to that specifically what exactly is going on? Obviously that division has probably been impacted somewhat by the consultant recommendations and other sort of efficiency initiatives that you have. Secondly, if you can just talk about the churn rate, this is the second quarter in a row where you mentioned that churn rate has gone down. Can you specifically address what are some of the key initiatives that you've taken to make sure that this means a continued dynamic? Thank you.

Jim Benson

Analyst

On the R&D leverage. I mean as I outlined earlier the bigger source of leverage for the company for margin expansion is really going to come from G&A, sales and marketing to some extent and also some network costs. We did see a little bit of leverage in R&D. As you know, we capitalize a fair amount of our R&D spend for new innovation and you should you view that as good because that effectively means that new product innovation that's being incubated. We saw a bit of an uptick on that from Q3 to Q4 in our kind of capitalization activity, which has a benefit in your operating expenses. But I think by and large, we expect our R&D spend as a percent of revenue to be roughly flat over the next couple of years because we don't want to under invest in a critical area to drive growth for the company.

Tom Leighton

Analyst

Yes. In terms of the churn rate that's all about making the customer happy providing great performance. We have great professional services. Our people are really great and the customers like that. Innovative new products. Our customers want to see a roadmap and investment and innovation to help them stay ahead of the game. A low rate of service incidents things that go wrong and we listen to our customers and engage with them. And provide them the level of service that they're looking for. So, in general our customers are very, very happy with Akamai and that's directly reflected in a very low churn rate. And we are very pleased to see it decrease further in Q4 and 2018.

Sameet Sinha

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Tom Barth

Analyst

Well, thank you. In closing, we'll be presenting at several investor conferences throughout the remainder of the quarter. Details of these can be found in the Investor Relations section of akamai.com. And we thank you for joining us and wish you a very nice evening.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for your participation on today's conference. This does conclude our program and we may all disconnect. Everybody have a wonderful day.