Earnings Labs

Assurant, Inc. (AIZ)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, May 6, 2015

$234.74

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to Assurant's First Quarter 2015 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. At this time, all participants are placed in a listen-only mode and the floor will be opened for your questions following management's prepared remarks. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Francesca Luthi, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations, Marketing and Communications. You may begin.

Francesca Luthi - Senior Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you, Shawn, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our first quarter 2015 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Alan Colberg, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chris Pagano, our Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. Yesterday afternoon, we issued a news release, announcing our first quarter 2015 results. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available at assurant.com. We'll start today's call with brief remarks from Alan and Chris before moving to Q&A. Some of the statements on today's call may be forward-looking and actual results may differ materially from those projected in these statements. Additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected can be found in yesterday's news release as well as in our SEC reports, including our 2014 Form 10-K. Today's call also will contain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are meaningful in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the two, please refer to the news release and financial supplement posted at assurant.com. Now, I'll turn the call over to Alan. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Francesca, and good morning, everyone. While our first quarter results at Health were disappointing, we are encouraged by solid performance at our other businesses. The results also reinforce the importance of our strategic realignment going forward. This morning, I want to highlight the opportunities ahead, and then we'll elaborate on the first quarter. Following a comprehensive review of our businesses, last week, we announced our decision to concentrate on specialty housing and lifestyle protection products and services, provided by our Solutions and Specialty Property segments. We believe this sharper focus will enable us to more consistently…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your first question comes from the line of Seth Weiss from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Good morning, Seth. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Seth.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Thank you. My first question is just on the philosophy of capital deployment while you're in this disposition stage of these two businesses, could you just philosophically walk us through how you're thinking about capital deployment in the next, call it, four quarters to six quarters, while there is uncertainty about how much capital Health may need, and of course uncertainty about how much you'll generate from those businesses? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, Seth. Let me start. This is Alan, and then Chris can add a few other comments. I think, we're going to continue the same capital management approach that we've had, which is a disciplined and balanced deployment of capital between returning capital to shareholders and investing in the future of the company. And I think, you saw the first quarter is a good example of that. We ended the quarter with essentially the same amount of capital that we started. We have $320 million of deployable capital still on hand. We still expect segment dividends to approximate what we're going to earn in the segments. We returned capital. We still think the stock is attractively priced. And so I think, it's business as usual as we go through the next few quarters. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah, I think, couple more things to add. Again, we are assessing the intrinsic value of the stock relative to the share price, and we think, share repurchase is a prudent use of capital. So, we're going to continue to do that. But we also think that, again, this is combination of returning capital to shareholders and investing in profitable growth opportunities in the housing and lifestyle sectors that's going to create long term shareholder value. So as Alan said, this – or as we think we've been consistent in the last five years, six years with our capital deployment process. It's worked quite well for us and we see no reason to change it now.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. And if I could ask question also on Employee Benefits, you mentioned value proposition to the market. If we look at Employee Benefits segment ROEs over the last two years or so, they've been in this mid to upper single digit level trailing some of the pure-play group provider peers and trailing was low to mid-teen double-digit ROEs if we go back several years ago. What's been the pressure there aside from low rates which everyone seems to be dealing with? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. A couple of thoughts on that, Seth. I mean, I think, we feel very good about the Employee Benefits business and franchise. They do have really strong and unique capabilities, and we've been investing heavily over the last many years now, especially the last three years, four years to really build out the voluntary business and capabilities in the dental. We think those are very attractive assets and for a owner more focused on healthcare and employee benefits, it used to be a very positive addition to another company, but that's really been the pressure, somewhat investing, somewhat we've been in the low interest rate environment as well, which puts pressure on the earnings of that segment.

Seth M. Weiss - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes from SunTrust. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, Mark. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, Mark.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Analyst

Good morning. In the specialty housing business, how would you describe the underlying growth if you take out the lender-placed business, what should we anticipate in terms of organic expansion in coming years? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So we have several different businesses under Property. In addition to the one you mentioned, we have multifamily housing. You've seen how well we've grown that business and we've continued to have double-digit growth now for multiple years in that business, and we expect to continue to grow. There's a significant opportunity to penetrate that market further, gain share in that market. We've created a new growth engine for us over the last few years called mortgage solutions. We see very robust growth for us, as we leverage our capabilities and our distribution to expand our footprint in that business. And then finally, in flood, we are one of the market leaders in flood and we've seen good growth in flood in the last couple years. So we see pretty strong growth in all the other lines, beyond lender-placed. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah. The other thing I'd point out just in particular on mortgage solutions is that the investment thesis and our thought process around investing in that space was not about growth in market, but growth in market share, leveraging our position as a trusted advisor, expanding product offerings to the existing client base, as well as gaining new clients, and we're seeing that happening already.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Analyst

If you take those discrete businesses, is that double-digit growth within those three, high single-digit? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah, I think, well, originally when we acquired those businesses within the mortgage solutions space, it was roughly $250 million of revenue. We expect $300 million of revenue this year. The other thing we expect is expanding operating margins as we leverage scale, and then of course multifamily housing has got smaller but double-digit revenue growth, which again meets our investment criteria.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Analyst

Okay, good, thank you. And then the lower production in the bricks and mortar, could you give us a sense of the magnitude on that? Has that trend changed over the last quarter? What's driving it? Is it a macro issue, is it company specific? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, what we've seen in retail for quite a few years now has been a gradual decline in the bricks-and-mortar distribution being more than offset by growth in other channels, whether that's through other forms of retail like digital or through OEMs. It's really a macro trend that we've been expecting, and we've been investing against over the last many years, and as you heard Chris say or I think we say in the outlook, our view is Solutions is still going to be consistent with last year despite the various trends going on.

Mark Douglas Hughes - SunTrust Robinson Humphrey

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar of JPMorgan. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, good morning, Jimmy.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, Jimmy.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

So I had a couple of questions. First, on the Health business, I think there's around $440 million of capital in that business. So, assuming that you're not able to sell the Health division, then how much of the capital do you expect to be absorbed as you're winding the business down, and would you expect some of the capital to be freed? And then, secondly, on the Employee Benefits sale, assuming that you are able to sell it at some point over the next year, do you expect to use a majority of the proceeds for buybacks, and how fast would you buy back if that's the case, or would you be more balanced and wait for potential deals and not speed up buybacks immediately after the deal? Just trying to assess potential dilution from the sale of the Employee Benefits business and the wind-down of the Health business? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Sure, Jimmy. Let me start and then, Chris, you can add on this one. I start by the future for Assurant, which we're very excited about. The businesses that we have in housing and lifestyle generate very good returns. There is a leadership position, strong growth potential, both organic and again additional, very selective acquisitions. So I start with, we're very excited by the future. For Health and then for Employee Benefits, we're really running two different processes. So with Health, as we've said very clearly, we are attempting to sell the business, and absent a sale, we will move to exit that business. Employee Benefits, we are highly confident in a sale for that business. We believe that there are many attractive capabilities that buyers will value. So, we have robust, thorough processes running for both. It is too early to really speculate on what might come out of those processes. What I would say, though, is go back to where we started in the Q&A. We have a disciplined, capital management strategy, which we've been following for years. We're going to continue to follow. Chris? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Yeah, again maybe just some – couple specifics on Health in particular. Absent a sale, we will not be open for 2016 open enrollment. So what we do expect is to be substantially out of the Health business by the end of 2016. So while we enroll for 2015 and through that process we will appropriately capitalize the business, but then expect by the end of 2016 to have gotten significant, if not all the capital out.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

And then do you have an idea or could you give us some numbers on how much corporate overhead is allocated to Health and to Employee Benefits that would still stay with the company at least initially and would need to be allocated to other businesses? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Well, again it's early in the process, but as we go through the sale process of Health and Benefits, we are reassessing the corporate infrastructure and our operating efficiencies, and we'll address the issue of stranded cost during that time.

Jamminder Singh Bhullar - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Nadel from Piper Jaffray. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, John. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hey, John.

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Hey, good morning, Alan; good morning, Chris. I guess a couple of questions and – two quick ones. I'll start, two quick ones on the lender-placed business. First, as far as premium rate reductions go, can you just give us a sense for how much of those expected reductions, the ones that have already been approved state by state, how much of those are already now in the premium numbers as of first quarter? And how much more would you estimate is left to roll into the numbers as we move through the remainder of this year? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, I think in terms of what's already in the numbers, I think, you're looking at roughly a 7% rate reduction that's reflected. There's always ongoing rate reviews...

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Yeah. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: – on an annual basis, ongoing dialog with the states, which may affect the rate reductions going forward. Keep in mind, we're also making some changes around the infrastructure, operational efficiencies in response to the normalization of lender-placed, so again lots of moving parts there, but I think roughly 7% of call it virtually all of the rate reductions from last year are now in the numbers.

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

And the total you had expected would roll through it, again understanding that state-by-state these things can change, but the total that you had expected I think was 8% to 9% or something along those lines, so you're pretty close, right? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: That's right, full-year 2015, 8% to 9%.

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

And then as I think about the comment I believe that you made, Chris, about the 900 basis points or 9 percentage points increase year-over-year in the expense ratio about half of that just being the growth of the fee-based businesses and half of that being the reduction in lender-placed premiums and I guess negative operating leverage there. How much of that piece of it once the expense initiatives are completed, do you think you can recover? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, couple things, again, increased higher expense ratio associated with the fee business, it's important to remember that there's no loss ratio associated with that business. So again -

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Understood. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: – an important distinction there. We do think sort of the insurance expense ratio is going to be in the mid-40s percentage over the long-term combines in sort of 85% to 90% I think is sort of the longer term projection we've got there. A lot of that is going to be dependent upon our ability to standardize and create greater efficiencies around the lender-placed infrastructure, which we are now net investors, the first half of the year. We expect to be net savers in the second half and in the out year. So we'll keep pace with the normalization of lender-placed. And at the end we think we're still going to have a 20% ROE business which definitely meets our definition of specialty.

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Yeah. Understood. And then also one last one related to lender-placed and then I have one on Solutions. You mentioned a couple of smaller loan portfolios that came onboard that maybe is masking the placement rate underlying falling. Can you give us a sense for how much – can you do that math? Do have the data to be able to do the math on how much the placement rate would have fallen had you not had a few portfolios come on board? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Just qualitatively, John, they are small loan portfolios with high placement rate. I think, the challenge on quarter-over-quarter placement rate and premium linkage is always a challenge. I think, the longer term 17 basis point decline year-over-year is a better indication, and again this trend towards 1.8% to 2.1% over the long term is really, we still see that trend in place.

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Okay. And then last one for you is just thinking about in the international piece of Solutions, if I look at the last couple of quarters obviously particularly weak combined ratios, even the trailing 12 months the combined ratio is 102%, maybe 102.5%, something along those lines. I know from years ago the target was to ultimately get this business down to the mid-90%s. What is going wrong there? And I guess, Alan, how long should we expect it to take for this particular piece of Solutions to get to its targeted ROE, because it seems like that's the piece of Solutions that's preventing the overall segment from hitting its target? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, you know, I think we feel like there's been good progress in international. We see lots of opportunities to continue to expand our offerings there and become more integrated around the risk event and be more than just insurance. As Chris was talking about, we do have some noise sometimes in the short-term and we had a couple one-timers around integration cost in the quarter that affect the quarter, but we still feel like there's good progress and we are moving forward toward the returns that we expect in international.

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

And just like, as we think about that, you have some intangible amortization obviously running through there too... Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah.

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Over the next couple of years, how much should just the wind down assuming no incremental acquisitions, which I guess is probably a bad assumption. But assuming based on what you have today, how much should just the wind down of intangible amortization help that ratio? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, I don't have the breakdown international versus domestic. I'd tell you in general, the acquisitions we've done in 2013 and 2014 in Specialty Property and Solutions, it's roughly $40 million to $45 million of intangible amortization on a pre-tax basis. And again, you're right to point that out because what we're focused on is cash and that's going to be a non-cash drag on operating income, but doesn't affect how we think about the business and how the investment thesis and how we value the acquisitions initially.

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sean Dargan from Macquarie. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Sean. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, Sean. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Hi. Thanks and good morning. I have a question about how to think of your thought process as you either sell or exit these businesses and deploy the capital that's freed-up. Is your driving force going to be to make up for those GAAP earnings that were lost or do you want to show EPS growth or is your focus on increased cash flow generation. I'm just wondering how to think of the company and how you are thinking of the puts and takes of share repurchase versus M&A. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. So, let me start broadly on that and then answer specifically, I mean the intent of refocusing the company around housing and lifestyle is to create a more attractive company for our shareholders. That comes from a few different points. One is we have a proven track record in those areas of generating specialty returns long term. Virtually every business that is part of the future of Assurant were a market leader ,and that's something we can build off of. Almost everyone of those businesses we're doing more than just insurance. We have integrated offerings around the risk event, which allow us to have better duration with partners, better economics for us. In general, these are less capital-intensive businesses and so what we really are focused on is free cash flow generation. That gives us the power to create value for our shareholders through the capital deployment. And as we looked across our portfolio by far the highest profitable growth potential we have is in these areas of housing and lifestyle really leveraging the consumer trends, the market trends, et cetera. And one of the things that we're going to do later this year, as we refocus on the future of Assurant and we get the Health and Benefits transitions behind us. We will put out new metrics and new disclosures and we'll hold an Investor Day late this year to really help everyone understand how to think about Assurant going forward. But we're very excited about the opportunities ahead and we think we're going to generate more cash flow in the future, not less. Sean Dargan - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Okay. Thanks. That's all I had.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Schwartz from Raymond James. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, Good morning, Steven. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, Steven. Steven D. Schwartz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Good morning, everybody. A couple – just to follow-up on John's question vis-à-vis LatAm, I think, Alan, you referenced or maybe it was Chris, I don't remember, referenced a – in a county in Latin America that performed poorly during the quarter, my sense was that was on the loss side, but then you referenced integration costs. So, I was just wondering about the story on that account? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, yeah, so, there are a couple things. So the mobile client in Latin America, there were some issues with a higher repair and replacement cost, product availability. This happens from time-to-time, one of the benefits of having partnerships is that we are able to make adjustments to pricing terms and conditions in conjunction with our partner and return to profitability, which we expect to – target profitability, excuse me, which we expect to happen over the next one or two quarters. The one-time integration costs are related to the acquisition of the CWI Group. So that's Europe, again mobile, but Europe. So which is a one-time, not repeat. So you'll see the combination of the one-timer and then the return to target profitability in the Latin American mobile client will help improve the combined ratio. Steven D. Schwartz - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Has new pricing already been worked out with the client in Latin America? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah,…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Colin Devine from Jefferies. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Colin. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hi, Colin.

Colin Wayne Devine - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Good morning. Two questions. With respect to Health and Employee Benefits, are you also exploring an option of selling them as a package? Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: No. We're not. We're running separate processes. The processes are very robust and very thorough. But we fundamentally believe the buyer universe is very different for those two businesses, and so they are completely separate. We also think that approach maximizes value for our shareholders. And one of the reasons why we announced this when we did was to ensure the widest possible participation in the sale of both of those businesses, but they're completely separate processes.

Colin Wayne Devine - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then second, I didn't catch it in your comments, but I was wondering if you could just give us an update on really how CWI is proceeding according to your expectations, as well as the eMortgage Logic? If I remember on the latter, I think, you were expecting about $250 million potential fee income this year and how are we moving towards that? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, on the eMortgage Logic, so again that's part of the broader mortgage solutions initiative. The combined revenue of the acquisitions at the point of time was roughly $250 million. We expect about $300 million this year. We do expect also some margin expansion. We're having success cross-selling, leveraging our distribution as a trusted advisor and selling products on the appraisal and property preservation and broker price opinion side into the same clients, so really executing right according to plan there. CWI, we're still in the midst of integration again with – the LSG team is driving that. We do think that that's going according to plan and will give us a nice footprint in Europe around global mobile.

Colin Wayne Devine - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. Then following up, you highlighted in the press release that net earned premiums from Solutions and Specialty Property were up 3% taking out American Reliable, but if we also back out the acquisitions to really get at a same-store basis, how are the businesses you – what you've got this year doing compared to last year in terms of premiums? Thanks. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I don't have that in front of us. What we've been focused on is we do have strong organic growth in many parts of Solutions and Property, and the fee income, a lot of that in mobile is organic. But I don't have that in front of me. We do feel good though about the future growth potential of the companies and the businesses that are part of the Assurant of tomorrow.

Colin Wayne Devine - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your last question comes from the line of John Nadel from Piper Jaffray. Your line is open. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hey, John. Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: Hey, John.

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Hey, thanks for the follow-up. Two quick ones. So I guess, we've sort of danced around a little bit in international solutions loss in LatAm and the integration cost. I mean, would you at least give us a sense for the combination of what those two factors together cost the business either in combined ratio points or dollars, or something along those lines? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, I think, in terms of the one-timer we're talking about mid-single digits millions pre-tax and then probably $2 million to $3 million pre-tax in terms of the client replacement cost and re-contracting in mobile in LatAm.

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Perfect. That's helpful. Thank you. And then the second question is just, you've got these processes ongoing now around the potential sale of these two businesses. Is it fair for us – I assume it's fair for us to think about you operating your capital management program under a sort of automated program at 10b5 or whatever it's called, such that as you become aware of critical information, material information around these deals, you are still able to be in the market buying back your stock, is that fair? Christopher J. Pagano - Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer & Executive VP: So, with the way we go about share repurchase is 10b5-1. And the activity in April was all during a blackout on all part of the 10b5-1 program. So, continued again, think the stock is attractive, want to be in the market consistently, and have ample financial flexibility to do that.

John M. Nadel - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Okay, thank you. And Alan, appreciate your commentary about an Investor Day and maybe some additional disclosure and metrics around the two key businesses going forward. I think that would be very helpful. Thank you. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, certainly. Alan B. Colberg - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call. We look forward to updating you on our progress throughout the year. As always, you can reach out to our investor relations team with any follow-up questions. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.