Earnings Labs

Assurant, Inc. (AIZ)

Q3 2009 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 29, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Assurant third quarter 2009 financial results conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will take place at the conclusion of the prepared remarks. Also, today’s call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Melissa Kivett, Senior Vice President Investor Relations.

Melissa Kivett

Management

Welcome to Assurant’s 200 third quarter earnings conference call. Joining me with prepared remarks are Rob Pollack, President and Chief Executive Officer of Assurant and Mike Peninger, our Chief Financial Officer. Prepared remarks will last about 25 minutes and then we’ll open the call to questions. Chris Pagano, our Chief Investment Officer and Treasurer is also here for questions. Yesterday we issued a news release announcing our third quarter 2009 financial results. The news release as well as corresponding supplementary financial information are also available on our website at www.Assurant.com. Some of the statements that we make during today’s call may contain forward-looking information. Our actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We caution you about relying on these forward-looking statements and direct you to consider the discussions of risks and uncertainties associated with our business and results of operations contained in our 2008 Form 10K and subsequently filed forms 10Q and 8K which can be accessed from our website. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Additionally, the presentation will contain non-GAAP financial measures which we believe are meaningful in evaluating the company’s performance. For more detailed disclosures on these non-GAAP measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the two, please refer to yesterday’s earnings release and the supplementary financial information that is on our website. Now, I’d like to turn the call over to Rob Pollack.

Robert B. Pollack

Management

The third quarter of 2009 was good for Assurant on several fronts. Actions we have taken to strengthen performance, reduce expenses and improve loss ratios are paying off but clearly a benign hurricane season factored in to our results. Operating results for the quarter increased both year-over-year and sequential comparisons. We are continuing to explore other avenues to grow our business and improve operating performance in a challenging economic environment. Our financial position at Assurant remains strong and our balance sheet strengthened due to improved asset valuations. We grew our holding company capital position by $110 million in the third quarter to $360 million, our book value per share by about 3% excluding AOCI and we generated an annualized operating return on equity of 10.7%. We also returned approximately $50 million of capital to shareholders including $18 million in dividend and $32 million in share repurchases during the third quarter. At Assurant Specialty Property, results benefited from the lack of storm activity. We added a new client which increased our track loan portfolio and we also saw portfolios of some of our clients grow because of consolidation. However, over the next few years we expect property revenues will decline as the market inventory of subprime loans declines. We also expect the ongoing consolidation of loan servicers will create margin pressures. We continue to execute on the operating efficiencies to deal with these trends. Finally, we’ve already received about $250 million in dividends from this business. We are on track to dividend all of this year’s earnings. Turning to Assurant Solutions, operating results continued to show improvement both sequentially and quarter-over-quarter. We’ve added new clients and distribution channels to deal with the slowdown in consumer spending as well as the bankruptcies with several of our clients. We’re pleased that both our…

Michael J. Peninger

Management

A drill down in to the businesses affirms the strength of our financial position and that the actions we are making a difference. Let’s start with Assurance Specialty Property; after tax, net operating income increased for the quarter and first nine months of 2009. The absence of reportable catastrophe losses drove the improvement. During the third quarter and nine months of last year we had $94.8 million of reportable catastrophe losses on reinstatement premiums. Third quarter results included a $5.9 million after tax benefit from a subrogation recovery related to the 2007 California wildfires. Net earned premiums decreased 7% in the quarter and 5% for the nine months. These declines were driven by loans lost due to servicer consolidation, drops in premiums from real estate owned policies as fewer subprime loans enter foreclosure, increased sales of foreclosed homes and higher catastrophe reinsurance costs. During the next 12 to 24 months we expect premium levels to continue to decline driven by a reduction in the number of REO policies, lower policy placement rates and possible reductions in average insured values. We also expect services consolidation trends to continue which will cause some variability in our quarterly results. This quarter we added 600,000 new loans, 300,000 of these were subprime loans from a previously mentioned new client that was added for tracking in the third quarter. Another 300,000 came from portfolios that our clients added through market consolidation. These additions were partially offset by other portfolio declines including the previously disclosed 230,000 Merrill Lynch subprime loans that we will lose in the first quarter of 2010. In response to the declining revenue trends, we continue to drive expenses out of our operations through increased automation and disciplined expense management. Overall, we were pleased with another very solid quarter at Assurant Specialty Property.…

Robert B. Pollack

Management

Operator, we’re ready for questions.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Jeffrey Schuman – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Jeffrey Schuman – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: I had a question about specialty property, I was curious about the placement rate sequentially. Subprime placement rates continued to increase whereas prime sort of flattened out and I guess I was kind of thinking that maybe the reverse would be more likely. Do you think prime placement has flattened out here or was that kind of a one quarter flattening out do you think?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

I believe in any particular quarter Jeff things like that can happen. We brought, as Mike mentioned, some new loans in to the portfolio. I wouldn’t read anything in to the one quarter number. Jeffrey Schuman – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Obviously it’s extremely difficult to kind of think about scenarios for the health business but it’s also difficult to ignore the situation as well. Certainly, one of the concepts kicking out there would sort of move you off of a sort of underwritten model. If you can’t really underwrite for pre-existing conditions, potentially how dramatic is that scenario, does that mean the existing book of business would go away and you would kind of half to start over with a new product and new underwriting model or could it potentially be less dramatic than that?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

Well, a couple of different things I’ll comment on. First, Don Hammond and the team at Assurant Health have put together a variety of different scenarios including the one you talked about Jeff and said, “In that environment how would we play and win?” We believe we have strategies that could operate there. Remember that the reform that is talked about takes place and is effective 2013 so we’re looking several years out in the future before that comes in to effect. I think another important point to consider in all that is existing people will be allowed to maintain or in much of legislation keep the plans that they have meaning you’re going to kind of have a different set of risks after the 2013 compared to ones that are underwritten prior to. So, maintaining that block of business of what you have on the books prior to reform will be a consideration as well. But again, until things are finalized we’re guessing and our goal is to make sure we understand how we can effectively plan in the new environment.

Michael J. Peninger

Management

I was just going to mention to that the size of the market is a factor too because we expect the market to be a lot bigger under the scenarios particularly as we think is right there’s a coverage mandate. Jeffrey Schuman – Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Lastly, on the SEC discussion and I guess kind of the suspension again of the share repurchase, if those discussions continue are there other ways for you to manage capital other than share repurchase directly? Acquisitions? I’m just kind of trying to think how that would go if that was sort of protracted?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

Well there’s dividends. I mean, there are some other options and at the end of the day we make a judgment about whether we have material inside information. That’s what precludes from instituting a share repurchase. The fact that there’s ongoing discussion may or may not lead us to draw that conclusion Jeff.

Robert B. Pollack

Management

I’d also point out that our goal Jeff is to consistently return capital to shareholders and I think we have a track record of doing that both through dividends and regular increases to the dividends as well as repurchase. Those are two ways we look at things.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Steven Schwartz – Raymond James. Steven Schwartz – Raymond James: Just following up on the SEC investigation, I saw a piece that you guys put out about Adam Lamnin, is he back now or was he already back?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

He has been back Steven and as we recently announced he joined Assurant Health as the Chief Operating Officer. Steven Schwartz – Raymond James: Vis-à-vis the SEC investigation and the rating agencies, I guess you’ve done your tail model, you came up with what you think you need at the holding company. I guess the question is given the SEC have you bothered to show that and discuss potential share repurchases with the rating agencies?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

Yes, we’ve continued to have regular dialogs with all the rating agencies and we’ve shared a lot of detail tail event analysis with them. Chris, I don’t know if you would want to amplify on that?

Christopher J. Pagano

Analyst

Again, the decision about holding company capital was really the result of the enterprise risk management efforts we’ve undertaken during the course of the year. The enterprise risk management is a focal point for the rating agencies and we have shared both the process and the conclusions with them. They are aware of how we go about doing this and the conclusions that we’ve reached. Steven Schwartz – Raymond James: Just two more fasts ones, Mike the potential for goodwill impairment in the fourth quarter vis-à-vis which you’ve kind of done preliminary in the third quarter, what could change that could make that happen? What would have the biggest effect I guess?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

Well, you go through a process of looking at the value of each of the businesses and then you take that value and kind of subtract off other assets in each of the businesses and then your balancing item is goodwill. So, you determine a value of that. So, the things that go in to it are your projections of future earnings of the business, you also look at changes in the market values at a point in time of the tangible assets that you have on the balance sheets, your estimates of intangible values. You’re going through a lot of different assumptions. You’re looking at current events at any point in time along with future projections and so as things change in the environment that affect any of those things it can cause to reach a different conclusion.

Robert B. Pollack

Management

But I think one of the important things for investors to take away is whatever goes on with goodwill has no impact on our holding company capital, okay. That amount of money we’re talking about a year end will be there regardless of anything that happens here.

Michael J. Peninger

Management

Right. Steven Schwartz – Raymond James: Finally, Mike you mentioned that TIV might come down in specialty property. Would that just reflect a mix shift?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

I think so, yes pretty much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Edward Spehar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Edward Spehar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: I wanted to talk a little bit more about the capital and share buyback. You don’t have any authorization outstanding now, is that correct?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

No, we do have authorization outstanding Ed. I believe it’s $170 million. Edward Spehar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: What was the comment about didn’t renew share repurchase program because of the discussions.

Robert B. Pollack

Management

We had a 10B51 program in operation Ed and when this came up we believed it was prudent to not renew that program. Edward Spehar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: But then if we’re talking about the share buyback from here, I think what you’re saying is that discussions with the SEC do not necessarily preclude you from buying back stock and the fact that you have now disclosed to us that you’re having discussions that at least is not a material non-public piece of information.

Robert B. Pollack

Management

It think two things Ed, first we’re a conservative company, we don’t want to do anything that could have unintended consequences and so we’re just being prudent as we consider all the things that are going on related to the investigation. Edward Spehar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Then just on the capital numbers, if I heard you correctly Rob you said that you thought that the holding company capital was going to build from $360 to $550 to $650 by year end?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

Correct. Edward Spehar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: What is leading to the $200 to $300 million increase in one quarter?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

Just dividends. We’ve pointed out before Ed that we tend to have our dividends focused towards end of the year after cap season because we have a line of sight then on our earnings a little better particularly in property so we’ve just set things up that way. It also allows us to have that feedback and dialog with the rating agencies. It’s kind of our normal process and Chris maybe you want to amplify a little bit about ordinary versus extraordinary.

Christopher J. Pagano

Analyst

Again, just a couple of things, Rob’s point that we tend to back end load the dividend from the various operating subsidiaries, a couple of things that changed from last year again, the portfolio results are not going to be the drag that they were last year. Property, we’ve taken about $250 or $260 of property’s profit which is left in the full profitability through the three quarter and we’re going to get all of property’s profits up to the holding company. The idea is we capitalized to the AM Best ratings and to maximize financial flexibility we take every extra dollar up and put it at the holding company. You add up a variety of factors and we feel like the $550 to $650 number is a good range for year end. Edward Spehar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: I guess then if we’re thinking about free cash flow from here, it doesn’t seem like there’s any reason to think that your ability to take up 100% of specialty property earnings is going to change any time soon given top line trends, isn’t that fair?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

I think that’s a fair statement. It’s the earnings and then of course moderating and potentially declining top line growth making additional capital available. Edward Spehar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: I think you use to talk about the other segments providing you somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 million a year of dividend capacity, is that still a reasonable expectation

Robert B. Pollack

Management

Again, lots of factors that come in to play, not the least of which is how AM Best modifies their [inaudible] measures on an annual basis. When I think about it you think about earnings adjusted for any kind of additional growth to be held back and then net of portfolio affects. That’s a probably better rule of thumb rather than putting a set dollar amount on the numbers.

Michael J. Peninger

Management

At least in the near term, obviously we’ve had difficult in the health business so at least in the near term that’s affecting it too. Edward Spehar – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: I guess the point is that the free cash flow generation seems to be running at I guess even a higher level than people had been assuming. I guess the final thing that I would like to ask, you gave us I think a good comment here at least in terms of optimism on the health business of a target of getting back to a 4% after tax margin by the fourth quarter of 2010. There’s a lot of uncertainty in health and you guys are willing to give a target, a forward-looking statement at least on a margin number on that business. I’m wondering if there’s any reason you can potentially, not that I don’t want to work but just potentially give us a little bit of a helping hand on a couple of these other segments at least on a margin standpoint? I’m not sure you would argue that there’s any less uncertainty in health than there is in any of the other businesses in terms of margins?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

Sure, if we go to solutions, we’ve tried to combined ratio domestically. We think we’re operating at those Ed. We know we need to ultimately improve things internationally. We’ll have a little better line of sight on that as we get a little more clarity on the economy. We’re trying to do that. The other side of thing sis obviously just the investment portfolio and Chris and Mike both mentioned that new money yields are down. We don’t think that’s going to last forever but right now you can see the dampening impact it’s had on investment income this year versus last. We’re trying to give more qualitative color related to that and we’ll continue to work to do that as we move forward.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mark Hughes – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey. Mark Hughes – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Just to be clear, since you’re speaking with the SEC you’re going to be retrained or you’re going to be hesitant to buy back shares or are you opening to buying back shares now?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

We have to make an evaluation Mark of whether we have material inside information and if we do then we can’t institute a new 10B5 plan which is the way we buy back shares. It’s an automatic plan. Mark Hughes – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Practically speaking you could be buying back shares at any time if you make that determination?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

If a plan was put in place then we could buy under the terms of that plan. Mark Hughes – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Then in the health business have you adjusted the price yet and what do you anticipate the magnitude will be of any rate changes?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

Two things Mark, I think first that our normal trend in this business we’ve pointed out has run in the mid teens depending on where we’re talking bout in the country. Then obviously we’ve had to put in additional price or plan change to deal with the higher utilization we’ve seen. We’re doing that, we’re doing it on renewals, we’ve started it on new business as well and again, this is something, part of our history having been in this business for such a long time we believe we have good line of sight on how those changes work their way through a block of business. Mark Hughes – SunTrust Robinson Humphrey: Then this question may have been asked before but the flexibility in cutting costs in the property business, a question of fixed versus variable, if you’ve been running at expense ratios in the low 40s, with the circumstances you anticipate, how should we think about where that ratio will be a couple of years down the road?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

I think we can look back at run rates on expenses over time. We obviously prior to the increase in penetration rates we had a run rate, we know we got some benefits related to the Safeco acquisition and I think that is a good starting point. On top of that however is Gene and his team are working very hard to find additional operating efficiencies. We mentioned last quarter some of the ones we found. We’re looking to take actions to improve results. They’re looking at that, they’re trying to come up with additional ones and I’m confident over time they’ll find some.

Michael J. Peninger

Management

I guess I’d just point out too that we have a bit of a balancing act in working with our clients because the clients are struggling themselves with workloads and inundated with new work that they’ve asked us to help them with. Some of that, that greats expense for us but then enters in to part of the discussion with them about how to price and all that sort of stuff too.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from John Nadel – Sterne, Agee & Leach. John Nadel – Sterne, Agee & Leach: I know we’re all targeting this SEC issue and the buyback but maybe a couple of different questions about it for you. It appears to me based on the average price that you guys paid buying back your stock during the quarter that you were sort of mid to late August early September so is it far to say the SEC sort of reinitiated contact with you sometime in September?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

I think that’s about when it happened John. John Nadel – Sterne, Agee & Leach: My question is, if you feel like discussions with them just simply reengaging in discussions is that a material event and now we’ve disclosed it or is it a fear that there’s potential for a meaningful cost of resolution i.e. fine or penalties and you need to hold back capital for something like that?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

I guess John we’re not buying back now. At the end of the day we hope to be able to do so as soon as possible but we have to, as I said earlier, we have to make a judgment about whether we have inside information. That’s really the call that we’re making and as Rob said we’re a conservative company so we want to make that decision as thoughtfully as possible. John Nadel – Sterne, Agee & Leach: I guess the question then is and maybe you already know the answer based on what you said, when do you make that judgment? Has that judgment been made?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

I think a couple of things John, if you look at when we got out of the market, we then got in to a blackout period, okay. So, it’s something that we’re assessing on a regular basis and we’ll continue to do so. The big take away here is we see the stock as attractively priced and we want to buy back as soon as we can. John Nadel – Sterne, Agee & Leach: Let’s switch gears for a second, I know Steve touched on this with you Mike but the goodwill idea that you guys did sort of a preliminary review, can you compare the depth of that sort of review that you already did with how much additional incremental work you would do on a more formal impairment testing in the fourth quarter? How much has to really change in a two or three month period of time for an impairment to be recorded?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

Well, you have to relook at all of your assumptions John. During the interim period we did look – we go through the same process. You’re looking at external events though. One of the ways for examples that you would try to look at the value of each of the segments is by looking at values of peer companies that could move around, you’ve got market values of assets that move around, you’ve got changes in interest rates and then another one is just your internal projections which typically aren’t going to change radically in a three month period but they can change. There’s just lots of different variables John. It’s not like we didn’t use the same process. It is the same process. John Nadel – Sterne, Agee & Leach: Then just specifically on the goodwill, how much is there related to solutions versus benefits? And, is there any in any other segments?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

We have goodwill in all of our segments. It’s actually in the 10K but the solutions is about $370 million of goodwill and benefits has I think $180 or so million. John Nadel – Sterne, Agee & Leach: Last question, just on the health segment, I think in our discussion last night and then in your comments this morning it sounds like definitely the pricing actions you’ve taken are negatively impacting your lapse rates i.e. you lapse rates have definitely spiked a bit. Can you give us a sense for how much they’ve moved from a normal – if I sort of typically think historically you’re lapse rate is at about 25% annually. How much higher is it now running?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

First, I think it’s a little hard to separate John just the one variable because a lot of just what’s happened because of the economy has caused things to go up as well. We think our lapse rates are running a couple of points higher. Again, we’re certainly trying to be mindful of that. Don and his team work hard. We’ve got a retention unit trying to keep people. Little anecdotes are a lot of the lapses are occurring just because people don’t have the money to pay for the coverage. That’s a different dynamic than we’ve historically seen so it’s hard to separate that pricing action from that economic action. Again, we’re trying to be responsive and find ways and keep more of that business in a changing environment. John Nadel – Sterne, Agee & Leach: Then related, with the pricing actions that you’ve taken I know there are a lot of different product designs and a lot of different price points but can you give use a sense for as you look across the market at the typical competitors that you run up against especially in the individual market, how different are you prices right now, how much higher relative to your top competitors in the market place right now?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

That’s a really hard question to answer John because it’s so market specific and typically there is – your relative comparison can vary vastly from one competitor to the next. There’s not a single competitor in every market. And, we also think that the trends are affecting our business are affecting other carriers too. This is not like it’s stuff that’s unique to us.

Robert B. Pollack

Management

I think the one thing that is clear is our affordable healthcare which is a modified designed, more first dollar benefit coverage is resonating in the market. It’s a lower premium per member product and we’re seeing a lot of response to that product. John Nadel – Sterne, Agee & Leach: Just a quick clarification on the claims cost of $8 to $10 million after tax for the H1N1 flu shots that you’re covering. I just missed what the time frame is for that and is there anybody else picking up that cost or just you guys? Are you passing it along in any way?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

We’re paying for the cost of the vaccinations. If there’s flu, if people actually get the flu and go in and get treated that would become treated like a normal claim but we’re picking up the cost of administrating the vaccines and we were excited to have this opportunity with Walgreens to let our customers go in and get that at any of the Walgreens clinics. John Nadel – Sterne, Agee & Leach: That’s $8 to $10 million over what period?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

It was six to eight months. John Nadel – Sterne, Agee & Leach: And that begins sort of now?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Your final question comes from Adam Klauber – Fox-Pitt Kelton. Adam Klauber – Fox-Pitt Kelton: On the specialty property is the natural attrition of the subprime portfolio running around 10% this year?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

I don’t have the number off the top of my head Adam but we’ve got them in our supplement, the subprime loans. There really haven’t been any new ones coming on this year so you could kind of look at the draw down there. Adam Klauber – Fox-Pitt Kelton: Do you think that draw down will accelerate in 2010/2011 as more of the older vintages of subprime just eventually go away or pay off or do you think it stays more level next year?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

I think some of that will be dependent on if there’s any new subprime issues. Again, we look at it as an inventory Adam. Certainly there are going to be some that move out in to foreclosed and then and REO status. If there’s new subprime loans that are originated they can replace that. Obviously there just hasn’t been any of that replacement origination going on for a while. On the other hand I’d point out historically there has been a subprime market and maybe not at the levels of the last few years but certainly it’s contributed to 10% or so of the outstanding mortgage loans. Adam Klauber – Fox-Pitt Kelton: Also, in your earlier remarks you said there’s obvious risk of losing business in consolidation. Has that been heightened recently as we see more and more banks get in trouble?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

Well, there’s been lots of consolidation going on. This is where we benefit from having the market share that we do and we have two thirds of the market so we believe that when there’s consolidation we’re more likely to win than lose but certainly we have lost loans to consolidations but over the long term we believe as consolidation continues we’re going to win more of our share, win more than we lose. Adam Klauber – Fox-Pitt Kelton: Do you think consolidation will pick up over the next 12 months compared to what we’ve seen?

Robert B. Pollack

Management

If you look at the top four the growth has been enormous over the last three or four years Adam. I don’t have the numbers in front of me but I think the share of the top four is almost double in the last couple of years. They can only get 100% of the market, I don’t think they’ll get all of it. I think that maybe that will slow down a bit. Adam Klauber – Fox-Pitt Kelton: You mentioned the goodwill, which areas I guess would be under greater stress for potential goodwill write downs?

Michael J. Peninger

Management

We look at all of our segments. We did the interim review of solutions and employee benefits. Those were the ones that you’d look at a little closer to the edge I guess.

Robert B. Pollack

Management

Each of our businesses is working to improve performance through operating efficiencies while pursuing additional clients to grow their businesses. We’ve strengthened our enterprise risk management activities to better understand and plan for scenarios that could adversely impact results. We’ve remained well positioned with holding company capital to meet a variety of needs. We look forward to updating you on our continued progress.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude Assurant’s third quarter 2009 call. Please note that a replay will be available as of 11 am Eastern Time. You may now disconnect.