Ernest M. Freedman
Analyst · Citigroup
Thanks, Keith. Pro forma FFO of $0.49 per share exceeded the midpoint of our guidance by $0.02, primarily due to stronger-than-expected results in our non-same-store Conventional portfolio and lower interest expense. Turning to operations. Second quarter same-store net operating income growth exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range by 30 basis points. Our average rent per apartment home was up 4.1% over last year, while other income was up 12.7%, leading to an increase in revenue per apartment home of 5%. Total revenue was up 5.1%, as we had a year-over-year increase in average daily occupancy of 10 bps. For expenses, I'll next provide some details on results for the second quarter, results year-to-date and finally, our expectations for the full year. Implied in our updated guidance for the year is a reduction in the growth rate of expenses in the second half of 2013 compared to the first half, which was and remains our expectation. For the quarter, operating expenses increased 4.8% from prior year. About 2/3 of this increase was related to real estate taxes, insurance and utilities, which were up 6% in total. On a year-to-date basis, operating expenses have increased 5%. About 80% of this increase is attributable to real estate taxes, insurance and utilities, which were up 7.8% in total. This result is consistent with our guidance from the beginning of the year where we expected in total that these items would increase between 5% and 8%. Outside of these items, the largest year-over-year variance in operating expenses is in the area of software, technology and other administrative expenses, which is up $1.2 million. About half of this cost increase is offset by lower personnel costs, as technology improvements completed have helped to reduce labor hours at our communities. These costs have also increased year-to-date as a result of a pilot program that is designed to move additional administrative work off-site, which could lead to further reductions in labor hours in the future. The remainder of our operating expenses are up 50 basis points year-over-year. Our full year guidance for expense growth is now 3% to 3.5%, which maintains our previous midpoint of guidance of 3.25%. We expect our expense growth rate to moderate to 1% to 2% for the second half of 2013, which is consistent with our expectations from the start of the year. This moderation is based on a couple of factors. First, real estate taxes were elevated in the fourth quarter of 2012, as end of the year assessment and millage rate increases came in higher than we had anticipated. This should make for an easier comp for us this year. In addition, some expenses in 2013 were incurred earlier in the year than last year, so timing also plays a part in our ability to have a lower expense growth rate in the second half of the year. On the portfolio management front, asset sales during the quarter were on plan, with the sale of 2 Affordable Properties. As a reminder, our plan was for most of our sales to occur in the second half of the year, and we are on track. Regarding our balance sheet, we increased borrowings on our line of credit by $138 million from the first quarter. Most of this increase was due to our purchase of first mortgage notes at par in the amount of $119 million associated with the group of properties in the West Harlem neighborhood of New York City. In 2006, we entered into an agreement with the local owner and operator that provided an option to acquire 84 residential buildings with 1,600 apartment homes. As part of that agreement, we've provided second mortgage financing of about $100 million. In June, we amended our current arrangements with the borrower. In conjunction with the acquisition of the first mortgage loans, the borrower agreed to repay all loans later this year. In addition, the borrower also agreed to buy back our unexercised option to purchase the properties. In total, the first and second mortgage notes and unexercised option are valued at about $229 million on our balance sheet. Due to this transaction, our debt and preferred equity to EBITDA coverage has increased from prior quarter to 8x, as noted in our supplemental schedule 4. We still expect to reach our target of 7x coverage by the first quarter of 2014. During the second quarter, Fitch initiated coverage of Aimco at BB+ with a positive outlook. We were pleased by Fitch's positive review of our business and balance sheet. We are also pleased that Fitch provided a road map of what it would take for Aimco to be rated by Fitch as investment grade. We meet or are near each of their requirements with the exception of the size of our unencumbered pool. Today, our unencumbered pool includes 4 properties with a growth asset value of $190 million. Fitch suggested an unencumbered pool of $500 million would be consistent with an investment-grade rating, using a stressed cap rate of 8%. This equates to a pool of a bit less than $700 million at today's market cap rates or roughly 7% of our gross asset value. Though our normal course of refinancing activity as property debt matures, on a leverage neutral basis, we have the opportunity to grow that pool by about $150 million to $200 million a year. Finally, regarding guidance. On Page 6 of our earnings release, you can find updates to our 2013 outlook. We are increasing full year pro forma FFO by $1 -- or excuse me, $0.01 at the midpoint and narrowing our guidance range. We are decreasing full year AFFO by $0.02 at the midpoint and narrowing our guidance range. This decrease considered the $0.01 increase in FFO, offset by an increase in capital replacement spending of $0.03, as we are ahead of schedule on one of our multi-phased projects, allowing us to move previously planned 2014 spend into 2013. For the third quarter, pro forma FFO is projected to be $0.48 to $0.52 per share, with year-over-year Conventional same-store NOI growth projected to be 5.5% to 6.5%. Third quarter Conventional same-store NOI is projected to be up 1.25% to 2.25% compared to the second quarter. Fourth quarter FFO is expected to reflect a significant improvement over the third quarter, as we anticipate further and larger gains in sequential operating results. Also, as we noted in our initial guidance, we will have some benefit from nonrecurring revenues occurring in the fourth quarter. With that, we will now open up the call for questions. [Operator Instructions] Operator, I'll turn it over to you for our first question, please.