Olivier Jarrault
Analyst · Sidoti & Company
Well, I mean, let me -- and Stephen will jump into it as well, but let me go back to the fundamentals. You know, we had a very good quarter in MC, very good first quarter as I pointed out. You noted the increase in revenue year-over-year. But just Q1 which was remember very well. We did discuss Q1 was relatively weak, right. Q1 '18 was relatively weak quarter, right? So we had a 5% increase [indiscernible] in volume year-over-year that, of course, rolled, increased, fixed cost leverage. We had some normal, good very strong labor productivity improvements. We also did benefit from the restructuring. Remember, we restructured the Sélestat, France in front of the French plant. And we also saw some nice -- some favorable, I would say, year-over-year, favorable pricing, favorable mix, right, year-over-year, right -- in Q1 '19. So -- we saw as an example, we saw some nice increases in packaging grades PMC sales, across North America, South America, even Europe or the flat in Asia Pacific. All that was driven by some good quarterly, some good seasonal orders. We saw, from a mixed standpoint, a pretty nice increase in our tissue grade PMC sales in North America, in South America, in Asia Pacific, all driven by consumptions. And you can revert to publication grades. You know, our first quarter from a mixed standpoint was not that bad either, because we saw in North America and in Europe a slight increase in our publication grades PMC sale, driven by some very specific, if you will some specific orders, that may or may not duplicate -- replicate in the next quarters. And any way, that would all offset on the net business, more than offset by a decrease in Asia Pacific and South America. So you know that would explain weak Q1 last year relatively, some nice labor productivity improvements and a good mix of, a good favorable mix in price. So now, excellent performance. We did deliver $50 million, about $50 million of EBITDA versus $45 million last year same quarter. And our guidance is about, like I already said, $195 million to $205 million, much high for the full year, much higher than the historical range of $180 million to $195 million. Now, look, there is absolutely no increase in cost is coming at all. We're just looking, we're continuing basically to execute and to drive productivity quarter after quarter. If you look at the, if you look at the year '19, like I said last, couple of months ago, you look at the year '19 versus '18 from a macroeconomic standpoint, it's clear. As you know, the world growth is projected to be slightly less in '19 than it was in '18. I think it's 3.3% versus 3.6%. In '18, will come back right in '20. But you look at China, you look at environmental pressure in China, you look at the trade tension between U.S. and China, you look at the political uncertainties. In France [indiscernible], you look at, you know, you look at what's going to happen in Germany. You look at Brexit, all that makes us think, and not only us, but all of us in the industry that the overall, the production of paper and paperboard in '19 will be less than what it was in '18, for the full year. However, looking at the long-term, 2018, 23 we still has, we see just published recently, we continue to think that we can expect CAGR rate of about 1, 1%, say 1% to 1.5%, even 1.5%, right, year-over-year, each year until 2020, right? So we have little bit of a GDP, right, world growth impact on the demand. Now if you look at the '19 PMC market, right, how does it translate? It's always good to take a good look at the market globally, right? But not for PMC, I'm switching from paper, to PMC market. So the U.S. PMC market, which is our largest market, seems to be more or less stable, continued growth in packaging and tissue growth. We've seen some machines and packaging machines slowing down in Q1 on, purpose slowing down. And but still offset by a continuing decline. However, slowing down somewhat in the publication grade consumption. Pushing to the Canadian PMC market, same story that shared with you earlier. We continue to see the market shrinking, mainly due to a continued publication grades consumption decline, especially newsprint. Resident PMC market, even though economy is good there, we think it will decline over to year, due to the fact that we don't foresee any, no, any new significant machine start ups, as we saw last year. And with a slowdown of export of pulp grade into China because of the ban on import, I think you have heard of. So we think the Boeing market will be declining, PMC market, will be declining for the full year when compared to '18. And now if you switch to the European PMC market, same, if you will, same story, it will continue to drive. As a result, as I explained already and that you know very well, a slight growth in the packaging great consumptions with a lot of machine conversions from printing and writing to packaging. And also no new tissue grade machine start-ups. And the Chinese market, more or less stable. I mean, South Asia market more or less stable, Chinese market shrinking and due to the environmental issues. However, good thing going forward we think that they are with, as you certainly read, we read and we know that they might be some -- there are some plans to install new packaging machines in '21 through '22 in Southeast Asia, in Malaysia, Indonesia. So we understand the PMC market, while we all -- just share with you all. So what I'm going to do about it. It's our plan for the balance of the year, tool technology approach that we have already deployed in the past, to basically again share -- again share in the growing -- packaging issues, in order to somewhat offset this weaker demand on the PMC side. So therefore, I continue to reiterate our guidance, $195 to $205, as a result of the combined effect of reduced volume versus for the balance of the year versus last year. We have labor inflation peeping at us, you know, and -- but all that will be offset as much as we can by net productivity gain -- manufacturing gains. We have some raw material inflation as well that we are fighting. And maybe some product mix year-over-year. So that's what I think that the performance of MC in '19 I reiterate would be very full -- $185 - $205, once again much higher than the historical range-- of $180 to $195. Stephen, would you like to add anything?