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Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 14, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro's Third Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. Today with us, we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO; Mr. Emilio Gnecco, CFO; Mr. Renato Junqueira Pereira, Sugar, Ethanol and Energy VP; and Mrs. Victoria Cabello, Investor Relations Officer. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in a listen-only mode during the Company's presentation. After the Company's remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer section. At that time, further instructions will be given. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro's management and on information currently available to the Company. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions, and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO. Mr. Bosch, you may begin your conference.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Good morning, and thank you for joining Adecoagro's 2024 third quarter results conference. We have already committed $96 million to shareholder distribution. This includes $35 million in cash dividends, on top of the $61 million that we have already invested in share repurchases year-to-date. As we distribute cash to shareholders, we also continue investing in attractive growth projects such as growing the size of our sugarcane plantation in Brazil, and strengthening our rice operations. Moreover, during the quarter, we repurchased $84 million of our global notes. Thus reinforcing our balance sheet structure. Moving on to the results, consolidated adjusted EBITDA during the quarter reached $111 million, whereas year-to-date amounted to $341 million. Starting with our rice operations, all the investments done through the years, such as the acquisitions of the assets in Uruguay, seed genetics, machinery, all these have materialized into record results. We have become a relevant player within the sector with a quick speed of reaction to respond to market opportunities. In Dairy, our continuous focus on enhancing efficiencies across the whole value chain, together with the development of higher value-added products are the main drivers toward the growth in results. Now we are in the middle of the planting activities for our 2024-'25 campaign, which are being conducted with good soil moisture conditions, and at a good pace for both crops and rice businesses. We have our teams fully focused on this and we are in an excellent situation to maximize yields in all our productions for the next harvest season. Now, let's move into our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business. Despite the challenging weather conditions, our crushing volume remains ahead versus the previous year. And more relevant, we accomplished a 55% sugar mix during the quarter, thanks to our industrial efficiencies. We continue to expect a slight year-over-year increase in crushing and consequently, a new record in sugar production. Furthermore, we were able to secure new areas at attractive terms and even plant cane during the optimal window. Thus enhancing its productivity potential for next harvest seasons. Before passing the word to Emilio, a quick update on the ESG. In line with our energy transition strategy, we secured an attractive financing from FINEP to construct two biodigestors that will enable us to increase our biomethane production five times by 2027. This in turn will enable us to cut down carbon emissions, while reducing costs. To conclude, I would like to thank our teams. Despite these challenging events, we continue generating good returns and value for our shareholders. Thanks to their hard work and dedication. Now, I will let Emilio walk you through the numbers of the quarter.

Emilio Gnecco

Management

Thank you, Mariano. Good morning, everyone. Let's start on Page 4 with a summary of our consolidated financial results. Gross sales increased to $457 million during the third quarter, while on an accumulated basis, were up to over $1.1 billion. This was mostly explained by higher volumes sold of most of our products, which in turn fully offset the lower prices for some of the commodities that we produce. However, adjusted EBITDA reached $111 million during the quarter, making a 29% decline versus the prior year, mostly due to an uneven year-over-year comparison. During the third quarter of 2023, we completed a farm sale which booked $30 million in adjusted EBITDA, whereas no farm sales were conducted during the current period. Excluding this, our quarterly performance was down by 12% versus the same period of last year, explained by lower results in our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business. On a year-to-date basis, adjusted EBITDA stood at $341 million. Despite an outperformance of our rice and dairy businesses, lower results were driven by the aforementioned decline in our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy operations. Now, please turn to Slide 5. Regarding our production figures, in the bottom right chart, we can see that crushing volumes in our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business were up 6% versus the same period of last year. Higher crushing translates into higher volume and better dilution of fixed costs. In our farming division, the increase in the production of grains was explained by a significant recovery in yields, after having experienced better weather conditions throughout our latest harvest season. Let's move to Slide 7, with the operational performance of our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business. Crushing volumes during the quarter amounted to 4 million tons, making a 10% year-over-year decline. This is fully explained by the dry…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Bruno Tomazetto with Itau BBA.

Bruno Tomazetto

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the presentation. I would like to discuss with you guys the parity of ethanol to gasoline prices. We see most of the industry now focused on the buildup of inventories to better capitalize on higher prices during the intercrop period. But at the same time, we also see higher than expected supply of ethanol related to sugar and ethanol operators in the Central South region, not being able to achieve sugar max production, right? So our question is, how to think about these two different dynamics impacting the parity to gasoline and what's Adecoagro's most updated view on the timing intensity for this, not only for Q4 but also for early 2025? And also, if I may a second one on the sugar prices. We understand that impacts on the sugar -- on the Brazilian sugar production was mostly limited to those regions impacted by fires, which is obviously not in your case, but you could benefit from higher sugar prices if we see further impacts on the industry struggling to produce sugar in the next harvest as well, right? So we would like to understand what Adecoagro is expecting in terms of potential impacts from these fires for sugar production in the upcoming year? And also how much do you guys think that's already pricing at current sugar prices? That's it. Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Thank you, Bruno for your question. Renato will take the answer. Renato?

Renato Pereira

Analyst

Thank you for your question, Bruno. So starting with the ethanol. We think that the demand of ethanol is still very high. Hydrous demand is close to 2 billion liters of ethanol per month. If you add then hydrous demand, you will reach 3 billion liters per month. The parity rate at the pump is still very low at 65%, favoring ethanol consumption. So if you take the stocks of ethanol and compare to the same period of last year, the stocks are very similar which have much higher demand today. So the start to use relation is much tighter now. And also you have to consider that the intercrop period of this year is going to be longer due to the weather problems that the Center South of Brazil is having. So we expect that the price of ethanol is going to react -- actually is already reacting and we think that it should reach the 70% or surpass the 70% parity at some point during the last part of this year and first quarter of next year. We are holding our inventories to sell ethanol during this period, capturing higher prices. And regarding the second question of sugar impact of the fire, we think that the fire is going to have an impact for next year as well. The fire occurred in August and September, most August and September. So the sugar cane that was already harvested at that point, and lost all that growth. So the sugar cane is going to be very delayed for next year. So we think that the first half of the year, the Brazilian meals in general, especially the regions that the fire occurred, they're going to vary -- they're going to have a very low yields or much lower yields than usual. So we think that the market will be still dependent on Brazil in the first half of the year, and the market is going to be still -- is going to continue very tight. That's why we think that the future curve should be more flat and you take the opportunity to hedge the remaining part of our production.

Bruno Tomazetto

Analyst

Thank you. Very clear, guys. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Next question is from Isabella Simonato with Bank of America.

Isabella Simonato

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. So my question is about yields. First of all, in Argentina, right, you guys mentioned that the planting has started and the expectation of course, is for a more relatively normal weather on next season. So I wanted to understand if we can start thinking right that yields will improve year-over-year. And also if you can elaborate a little bit on the mix of various -- it's clear that you guys reduced the exposure to corn, right? And I would say this is related to the plague you guys faced this year. But just to give a little bit more context on the mix of crops would be helpful. Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Thank you, Isabella. I am going to take your question. Regarding yields in general, last year was a challenging year, and we are starting this season with excellent conditions. So in general, we are starting at a much better conditions than what we started at previous season. So assuming weather going normal from now onwards, we can clearly expect better yields than what we have last year in general as a whole. Then getting into the details of our distribution within the crops, this year, we are increasing solving compared with -- comparing with the corn but even more relevant than that and thinking on how prices we expect they will be moving for the future. Peanuts is the one we are growing more and we are starting in even better leased land. So we expect better yields for next year. And peanuts is becoming a very relevant crop. And in the peanut side, as Europe is the main buyer of peanuts for Argentina, we expect a lower decrease in terms of prices because the quality that the Argentinian peanuts have will be sold all to this market that is not reducing the price. Then we also have an increase in sunflower, that sunflower is playing a different role than the other commodities and that's why because of the oils and the increase in the price of oils, sunflower is at a better price than the previous year. That's why we are also increasing that one. And then the most relevant crop that we are having today, as you can see in our reports is the rice. And in terms of rice, although we expect that the average of the rice in general worldwide is going down. We do produce special varieties because of our seed genetics. So our model…

Isabella Simonato

Analyst

That's very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Matheus Enfeldt with UBS.

Matheus Enfeldt

Analyst · UBS.

Hi, good morning, Mariano, Emilio, Renato, Victoria. First, happy to be here and congrats on the results. My first question is on CapEx. Adecoagro has been running at slightly higher rate for this year, particularly in expansion CapEx in sugar and ethanol. So I wanted to get a sense from you on how this advances your time. I assume that 2024, 2025 and 2026 are likely to be years of higher CapEx when we compare to the past couple of years. But my question is, how you're seeing this advance and in general, what's the appropriate level that the Company can perform if there is a potential to climb closer to $300 million in order to accelerate a few of the growth opportunities. So that's my first question. And then my second question, I think a follow-up to the previous one, which is -- I think the message on prices and productivity is clear, but how you're seeing cost develop as well? Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Okay. Thank you, Matheus, for your question. Number one, and a more quick answer in terms of cost development. I think this is a very important question because we've been always developing these sustainable production models in the four business lines or business segments that we have, thinking on being the lowest-cost producer. So for us, the cost is very relevant here and this approach of being the lowest-cost producer is always helping in these scenarios where prices or commodity prices are going down. So this is an important approach. And as you can or maybe you don't see it yet in these reports because we are comparing '24 to '23 campaign. But when we are planning our next campaign and when we are planting today, we are reducing costs and if we assume yields being in line with the history and what we are projecting according to what we are planning today, we do expect a reduction in cost of production in general going forward. That's something that we can expect and we are working to be there in the near future. So, making the quick clarification in terms of cost. Now I'm going to get your question on CapEx. And in order to answer the CapEx question, I would like to refresh what Emilio has just said about the capital allocation. When we think in CapEx, we are always thinking within the overall concept of capital allocation. So as you can see, the first thing that we are going to maintain and we are being very strict is on compliance, our policy of distributing at least 40% of the net cash from operation of the previous year. So as you can see in 2024, we are distributing more than that and we are returning almost 10% of the…

Matheus Enfeldt

Analyst · UBS.

That's clear. Super. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Just a heads-up that we received a question from Larissa Perez from JP Morgan, but it was already addressed during Isabella Simonato's question. [Operator Instructions] This concludes the question-and-answer section. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Bosch for any closing remarks.

Mariano Bosch

Management

We would like to thank you all for joining the call and for the support we've been receiving and hope to see you in our upcoming events.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect at this time and have a nice day.