Charlie Boero Hughes
Analyst · BTG. Please go ahead
Good morning everyone. Let's jump to page four of the presentation. Rains in our class in Mato Grosso do Sul in November 2016 through March 2017; we are 25% below the 10-year average. Therefore, we decided to fine-tune our harvest schedule in order to maximize share competitive throughout the year. As a result, we decided to slow down the pace of crushing during the first quarter and only crushed our own sugarcane that has grown between 15 to 18 months and sugarcane purchased from third-parties. This strategy will allow our traditional 12-month sugarcane to grow an additional two or three months and benefit from normalized rains during March and April. At the same time, any spare time was used to accelerate offseason maintenance of industrial equipment, agricultural machinery, and most importantly, sugarcane replanting. As you may see in the bottom right chart, sugarcane replanting increased by 59% in the quarter and we used a total of 20 days for maintenance compared to three days in the same period of last year. This means we are better prepared to operate at full capacity during the rest of the year. Despite our decision to decelerate the milling pace, we were able to crush a total of 1.5 million tons during the first quarter of 2017, essentially in line year-over-year. In terms of third-party sugarcane, we were able to find attractive opportunities to purchase sugarcane from neighboring mills on farmers at very competitive prices. Purchases of third-party sugarcane reached 221,000.9 tons, 306.5% higher year-over-year. Let's turn to slide five, where I would like to comment on sugarcane productivity. Despite dry weather during summer months, sugarcane yields during the quarter reached 94.1 tons per hectare, significantly above the five-year average yield for Brazil's Center South region as you can see on the bottom right chart. This is explained by our focus on enhancing the sugarcane quality and treatment. Yields fell 8% compared to our yields in the first quarter of 2016 as a result of above average rainfalls during November 2015 through February 2016. In terms of sugar content, TRS during the quarter increased to 110 kilotons, 3% higher than the first quarter of 2016. Let's move to slide six, sugar production decreased by 3% as a result of slightly less sugarcane yield and by the fact that production mix was slanted towards ethanol production. As a matter of fact, 62% of our total TRS production was destined to ethanol production. This despite being part of our commercial strategy to capture high ethanol prices during the harvest season, response to the fact that the cane crushed during the first quarter is more suitable for ethanol production. All-in-all, TRS production remained virtually flat when compared to the first quarter of 2016. In the case of energy, production increased by 54%, reaching 105,000 megawatt-hour. As for our coal generation efficiency, it reached 72 kilowatt-hour per ton, an all-time record and 59% higher year-over-year. This was primarily achieved by burning a stockpile of the gas that was carried over from last year as we expected energy prices to increase as a result of the low levels of rains registered during the last quarter of 2016. Let's now turn to page seven, where I would like to comment on sugar and ethanol sales. As shown on the top left chart, sugar net sales grew by 66% year-over-year. The increase is mainly explained by a 58% increase in average selling prices, coupled with a 5% growth in selling volumes. Regarding ethanol, sales increased by 34% from the first quarter of 2016 through the first quarter of 2017. This is primarily explained by the 18% increase in average selling prices, coupled with a 13% increase in selling volumes. The increase in selling volumes was mainly driven by higher production volumes throughout the quarter. Now, let's please turn to slide eight, where I would like to discuss energy sales. As you may see in the top right chart, energy prices have begun to rally since mid-February. Currently, spot prices are trading above BRL350 per megawatt-hour. This is mainly explained by a low rain levels recorded in the south of Brazil. As a result, as it can be seen on the upper left chart, order levels stored in the reservoirs are well below the seven-year average. Thus, reducing the energy supply from hydropower. As a result, net sales grew 140%, higher prices or coupled with an 89% increase in selling volumes. Growth in coal generation sales, despite lower sugarcane crushing, is explained by our decision to carry stockpile of the gas from the fourth quarter into the first quarter, seeking to capture higher prices and commercialization of energy volumes from third-parties. I would like to remind you that 70% of our energy exports in 2017 are hedged in long and short-term contracts at BRL205 per megawatt. As for 2018, 52% is already hedged at BRL243 per megawatt. Finally, to conclude with the sugar, ethanol and energy business, I would like to focus on slide nine. Here we can see the overall financial performance of the sugar, ethanol and energy business. Total net sales during the quarter reached $104 million, 51% or $35 million higher than the same period of 2016. As explained during the previous slide, the growth is mainly explained by the increase in selling volumes, coupled with higher selling prices. Adjusted EBITDA increased significantly during the quarter, from $22.1 million in the first quarter of 2016 to $30.3 million in the first quarter of 2017. In addition to volumes and prices, adjusted EBITDA was positively affected by a $14 million gain from the mark-to-market of sugar hedge position. Nonetheless, EBITDA margins fell from 37% to 33%. Lower margins are explained by a 49% increase in production costs. I'd like to highlight that costs are highly seasonal and very difficult to compare quarter-by-quarter. Costs should be analyzed on a full year basis. The increase in costs was driven by a 370% increase in third-party cane purchases, driven by our strategy to postpone harvest of own cane and maximize milling of cane from suppliers, coupled with the higher CONSECANA prices and the appreciation of the Brazilian real in the quarter. We expect unitary production cost to decrease as the pace of the harvest accelerates, and we begin crushing the higher portion of owned sugarcane. I would like to shift your attention to page 11, where I would like to comment on the status of our 2016 and 2017 crop. The harvest of our summer crops is currently underway. The crops are in excellent conditions due to the good weather during the growth season. We expect above average yields. However, abundant rains over the last month have generated logistics complications. Regarding our winter wheat crop, as of March 2016, the harvest was already completed. Harvested area increased by 17% compared to the previous harvest year. U.S. were at 32.8% higher than the previous harvest year, reaching three tons per hectare. In the case of rice, the harvest is almost fully completed. Over 39,000 hectares were successfully harvested, yielding 5.9 tons per hectare, 16.5% higher than the previous harvest. Let's move to page 12, where I would like to walk you through the financial performance of our farming business. Consolidated EBIT was $18.1 million, 28% lower than the first quarter of 2016. In the case of the crops business, adjusted EBIT had decreased by 27% to $12.2 million. This fall is primarily explained by the delay in planting and harvest operations as a result of the excess rains during the beginning of the year. This naturally implied the postponement of margin recognition and an increasing cost measured in dollar terms as a result of the real appreciation of the Argentinian peso throughout the year. It is important to highlight that this decrease is primarily temporary in nature. Therefore, we expect stronger performance in the crops and rice businesses in the upcoming quarters once this seasonality issues are reversed. Regarding the rice crop, despite a 16.5% increase in yields, margins were negatively impacted by a higher harvesting expenses due to setbacks caused by the rains and a 21.1% decrease in white rice sales due to schedule of shipments, but partially offset by a 14.6% increase in white rice prices. Consequently, as we ramp up sales volumes during the upcoming quarters, we expect to offset the reduction in margins reporting in the coming quarter. In terms of foreign exchange, our costs of production in Argentina have been slightly increasing in dollar terms as a result of the appreciation of the Argentinian peso in real terms. In the case of the dairy business, average selling prices surged as a result of a lack of supply in the domestic market. This, in turn, was caused by the floods registered during the beginning of the year, which compromised productivity and production at a country level. Our operational performance during the quarter was very good and we continue to see improvements as we consolidate the free-stall facility. Mill production volumes reached 21.6 million liters, marking a 0.8% increase year-over-year, driven by a 1.5% increase in productivity and a 0.4% growth in our dairy cow herd. The gains from productivity were offset by lower selling prices resulting in a decrease in adjusted EBIT. Let's now turn to page 14, which shows the evolution of Adecoagro's consolidated operational and financial performance. On a consolidated basis, net sales increased year-over-year from $117 million in the first quarter of 2016 to $160 million in the first quarter of 2017. The 36% increase is explained primarily by higher selling volumes, coupled with higher average selling prices. Adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2017 totaled $45 million, representing a 4% increase compared to the first quarter of 2016. The improvement in financial performance was primarily driven by higher sales volumes, higher prices, coupled with mark-to-market of our commodity hedged positions. This positive effects were partially offset by an increase in production costs, mainly as a result of the currency appreciation. We expect our required production volumes and financial performance to continue growing in line with historical growth, mainly driven by the consolidation of our sugarcane investor and an increase in operational and financial efficiencies in each of our businesses. Please turn to page 15, as you may see on the top left chart, our gross and debt as of March 31st of 2017 stands at $796 million, our net debt stands at $565 million, slightly lower compared to March of 2016. I'd like to highlight that 71% of our debt is in the long-term, composed mainly of loans from multilevel banks at very competitive rates. To conclude, please turn to page 16, where I would like to share our current growth strategy. Regarding the sugar, ethanol and energy business, we are currently undergoing the expansion of our trust in Mato Grosso do Sul as announced in the fourth quarter of 2016 earnings release. The expansion of the Angelica mill is already complete. We have installed larger mill rollers and expanded the sugarcane centrifuge and ethanol filtration processes. Nominal crushing capacity has increased by 0.9 million from 4.7 million tons per year to 5.6 million tons per year. As for the Ivinhema Mill, we have begun building the foundations for the new mill tandem. Regarding the expansion of our sugarcane plantation to supply the new milling capacity, we have already leased the necessary land schedule to be planted in 2017 at prices according to budget. Planting activities are being executed as planned. We have successfully planted 7,000 hectares or 28% of the targeted area for 2017. Moving to the farming business, we have identified several accretive investment opportunities throughout our current operations. These investments will allow us to increase operational efficiency with these costs and enhanced returns across our dairy, rice, and crops segment. In the dairy business, we plan to invest $50 million over the next four years to build our third and fourth free-stall facilities. This project will allow us to double production capacity, reaching over 185 million liters of milk production per year and over 14,000 milking cows. Regarding our rice business, during the second half of 2017, we will invest $6 million in various equipment and machines to improve our rice processing and distribution and increase the value of main byproducts. These projects include a rice parboiling plant, a new packaging machine for branded white rice, expansion of finished goods storage capacity, our rice husk bailing press, and our rice bran oil deactivation system. This will allow us to strengthen our brand in the local market and increase margins. Finally, as for the crops business, we consider that in order to continue managing our production capacity efficiently, we will build two new storage and conditioning facilities located near the Rosario and Bahia Blanca ports. These assets will allow us to reduce our conditioning logistic costs and enhance our commercial flexibility. Total investment is expected to reach $11 million over the next 12 months. These investments are expected to generate returns well in excess of our cost of capital. Thank you very much for your time. We are now open to questions.