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Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, May 13, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and thank you for waiting. At this time we would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro's First Quarter 2016 Results Conference Call. Today, with us we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO; Mr. Charlie Boero Hughes, CFO; and Mr. Hernan Walker, Investor Relations Manager. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in a listen-only mode during the Company's presentation. After the Company's remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer section. At that time, further instructions will be given. [Operator Instructions]. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro's management and on information currently available to the Company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, because they relate to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO. Mr. Bosch, you may begin your conference.

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining Adecoagros 2016 first quarter results conference. As you may have seen in our report we have a very good quarter in all our businesses. In the Farming and Land Transformation business, we have important things happening such as the change in Argentina’s agriculture public policies in particular the elimination of export taxes for the corn, wheat and rice and the reduction in soybeans. The de-valuation of the Argentine currency, which made us more competitive and improved our cost structure. In the operational side as you have heard in several locations before we are very disciplined to continue improving our efficiencies year-after-year, and as an example our milking cows are delivering 36 liters a day and we have been able to harvest 100% of our rice production with better use compared to last year just before heavy rains started in the Northern areas of Argentina. And we are taking advantage of the coordinated work between harvest logistics and commercial teams to maximize the sale of our production of corn and soybean after the heavy rains. All this will continue to enhance our financial results for this business. On the sugar ethanol and energy business as anticipated we have implemented the non-stop or continuous harvest. This new development will substantially increase our production and dilute our fixed cost making a significant contribution with our obsession of becoming the low cost producers for sugar ethanol and energy. As of the end of the first quarter we had already milled 1.5 million tons of sugarcane that’s three times more when compared to last year. In addition we have finalized the investment cycle and become cash flow positive by the end of 2015 and on top of that sugar prices are recovering. All of the above makes us very optimistic on our near future. And at the same time we continue looking for growing opportunities in all our business lines that brings additional value to the company and attractive returns to our shack holders. Now I'll let Charlie walk you through the number of the quarter.

Charlie Boero Hughes

Analyst

Thank you Mariano and good morning everyone. I’d like to start on Page 3 by briefly explaining the amendments to the biological asset accounting and walk you through the main implications regarding our financial statements. In June 2014 International Accounting Standards Board amended IAS 41 which relates to the accounting treatment of biological assets. A new standard determines that bearer plants should be accounted for in the same was as property plant and equipment. They will therefore now be accounted for under IAS 16. The produce growing on bearer plants will continued to measured at fair value less cost to sale. Adecoagro's sugarcane plantations qualify us both bearer plants and agriculture produce in the following way. The sugarcane roots which will grow produce our multiple harvests will be classified as property plant and equipment and measured at amortized cost and depreciated over six years. The sugarcane currently growing on the field which will be cut during the next harvest, we will treated as agricultural produce and measured at fair value less selling costs. These new standard will have two main impacts on our income statement, first the depreciation of sugarcane, calculated as 1/6 of the capitalized cost of planting will form part of the our cost to production reflected in the line item cost of manufactured products and impact our net income. Second, instead of measuring the fair value of sugarcane by calculating the net percent value of all future harvest as we’re doing until now, going forward, we will only calculate the net present value of the next harvest, in other words, the unharvested sugarcane growing on the fields. Any difference between the fair value at the end of the period and the fair value at the beginning of the period, net off sugarcane maintenance cost related to each…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The floor is open for questions and answer session [Operator Instructions]. And our first question will come from Rafael Macedo of BTG.

Rafael Macedo

Analyst

I have just one quick question. Given that you are seeing better margins in the sugar and ethanol division and better price prospects for grain, you should have strong free cash flow generation, as you mentioned, for this year. So with this deleveraging process in place, my question is when do you expect to enter into new growth cycle and what kind of projects you would be willing to look at?

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

We’ve been always very disciplined on how we allocate capital and we’re always focusing on the returns of our invested capital. So taking that into account, the first thing that will continue to happen is this, the leveraging that you’ve been just a mentioning. And then regarding the growth project we continued to see a interest, we continue to have a very interesting pipeline mainly in the current business that we’re having and when we think on the marginal returns that is a project within the current business that we have is potentially were we see more attractive returns, especially taking into account that we already have matured teams in this sugar and ethanol Mato Grosso do Sul cluster in our rice operations in our soy, corn and wheat operation and even in the dairy. So we foresee growth mainly in our existing business lines. But we will continue to make a focus on the return on invested capital so, you will only see that the growth when we consider this is really accretive to our current shareholders.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, the next question will come from Antonio Barreto of Itau. Please go ahead.

Antonio Barreto

Analyst

I have two questions about the sugar and ethanol business. And the first one is, we are seeing a little bit of a softer ethanol price at the beginning of this harvest. And I would like to understand how is your carry strategy going to play out for the ethanol products. So are you going to carry a lot of ethanol like you did in the last year? And how do you see the ethanol prices evolving in Brazil throughout this season?

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

Hi Antonio. I will ask Marcelo Sanchez, our Commercial Director to answer your question, Marcelo?

Marcelo Sanchez

Analyst

Good morning Antonio, what we’re seeing is that prices have been decreasing within the last three weeks and our carry strategy has already started and we think in terms of the volume that, we’re going to be carrying as much as possible into our tanks for the season, and regarding the price scenario that we’re forcing for the next coming months, we’re constructive for ethanol prices 2016 but several reasons to assure that as our consumption is being positively reacting lower prices at gas stations. Piloting in Sao Paulo is reaching 66%. Also higher sugar prices are incentivizing mills to increase the mix of sugar production and then that is positive on the ethanol side and I think that prices -- that level of prices that we’re seen last year around BRL1.3 per cubic meter are not expected to be seen this year then that’s basically our view on the ethanol side.

Antonio Barreto

Analyst

Thank you, that was very clear. My second question is, how do you see the impact of the weather this year in your sugar cane crops? We have been hearing reports of some frosting in Brazil and we know that with the slowdown of El Nino that you are going to have drier weather. So, can you give us an overview of how do you see the impact of the weather there in Mato Grosso? And how do you see the impact of this weather in your TRS and tons per hectare productivity yields for 2016?

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

Today the impact on the weather on our existing sugarcane plantation, I would say is excellent. Our sugarcane plantation as you’ve see in our latest yields, is yielding excellent tons per hectare and if you have our potential La Nina, so if this El Nino is softening and we have a drier climate that would be excellent for our sugar and ethanol business because that will mean, that we would be able to have a good period, a good drier period to harvest and collect all our sugarcane. So drier season from now onwards will be very well come on our existing sugarcane in Mato Grosso do Sul. That’s basically what we see in the sugar and ethanol business, if La Nina is coming. And off-course a frost is never welcome, but we haven't heard or we don’t force anything like that.

Antonio Barreto

Analyst

Anything that you could share with us in terms of estimates for TRS when you compare it to the last year? If this dry weather actually materializes that improves your TRS content, what kind of upside are we talking about here? Any kind of estimate?

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

A drier weather is always welcome for the TRS so we have it that’s why whether we can improve the TRS in 2 or 3 points, but we always look at the TRS per hector that’s the multiples important measure that we are otherwise looking at.

Antonio Barreto

Analyst

Okay. And any idea of what kind of TRS per hectare you are looking at?

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

No, what we’ve been obtaining until now that is this 12 tons of TRS per hectare is something that we can continue to foresee.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Ravi Jain of HSBC. Please go ahead.

Ravi Jain

Analyst

So I had a question on the Argentina land business. Since the end of last year, have you seen any material increases in land transactions or valuation? And a related question on that is, do you expect the new administration in Argentina to remove the restriction on foreign ownership of land in the foreseeable future?

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

Regarding land prices we strongly believe that land prices are always associated to the cash flow generation of that land. And in Argentina you’ve seen the cash flow generated by each piece of land because of all this new government policies have improved and thus we believe that prices of land should continue to increase in Argentina. We’ve seen that, we’ve sold some farms according to this in latest of the year at 50% above our independent valuation. So, we continue to see that the trend going on, that is and the first part of your question. And then regarding the land ownership law, we are hearing from government officials that they are working on that and they will work to have different thing to what we have and we’ve also heard from the opposition coming from governors like the governor of the Salta province also mentioning this and talking specifically that he will also be working to get rid of this existing land ownership law.

Ravi Jain

Analyst

That's very helpful, Mariano. And one last question from my end, can you give us your thoughts on a potential dividend or the share buyback policy, given that the shares have come down to $11, and plus your thoughts on a potential when you want to start your dividend policy for Adecoagro? Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

And this is in line with Rafael’s question at the beginning. We always are focused on this return on invested capital and so the three things are always in our head, the de-leveraging, the growth projects and the share buyback or dividend that is the three things are part of our discussion, our permanent discussion on what to do with the excess cash. We’ll do whatever is best or we consider is best for being accretive to our existing shareholders.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from Victor Sargiato of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Victor Sargiato

Analyst

I just want to understand how you see the agricultural yields going forward. I know that you are going to harvest the Southern farms, which has higher yields. But just wanted to understand if it will be sufficient to offset this decrease in soybean, corn and sunflower yields that you realize. The second question is, there was a rumor in the market that you are considering to sell the sugar and ethanol business. Just want to understand if you have any kind of discussion in this way. Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

I will address the last part of your question. I think that don’t make sense at all. We’ve heard this several times from Relatorio Reservado that it's a place that I don’t know where do they take those type of news and why they release that type of news that doesn’t make sense at all, and doesn’t make sense to all what we’ve been talking about on the enthusiasm that we have and how excited we are on our sugar and ethanol cluster [ph] Mato Grosso, so there is no way we’ve been thinking or talking about it. So that’s -- I wanted to be extremely clear because of the bad information they have from Relatorio Reservado that they’re talking about. Then going to the farming yields, regarding rice that is where we finished, we are 16% about last year and regarding soy, corn and -- that are still in the middle of the harvest where we see a better yields or excellent yields in all our Southern farms and we are -- we had excellent yields and excellent soybean in all our Northern farms but because of the flooding there are losses happening on those Northern farms. The final figures of course we don't know and there is some viability. We are going to be above our budgeted yields that comparing to last year, last year we had excellent yields in soy and corn specifically, so compared to last year we still don’t know, we're certainly aware we're going to be finishing but we are pretty sure we would end up with a very good yield compared to historical pattern. And for sure we will be above our historical pattern.

Operator

Operator

And our next question will come from Fernando Suarez of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Fernando Suarez

Analyst

Good news from these results. But I was wondering what would be the impact on a quarterly basis on the second, third and fourth quarter of last year, and if you can give some guidance on what will be the impact on previous years in nominal terms.

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

Sorry Fernando I didn't understand the first part, what is your question?

Fernando Suarez

Analyst

I meant, related to the 41 amendment.

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

Yes, the biological asset assumption. I'm going to ask Charlie to take that question. Charlie?

Charlie Boero Hughes

Analyst

Obviously, it would depend on the variables that we may -- we're assuming to calculate the DCF from the different biological assets and that's relating more to projected yields and then prices, so that will determine basically which would be the results, but as we explained we should see an increase in EBITDA conceptually speaking, as we are considering the impact of the fair value of the next 12 months of the sugarcane. And a slightly reduction on that income.

Fernando Suarez

Analyst

And regarding historical figures?

Charlie Boero Hughes

Analyst

We shouldn't be expecting a big difference to many changes.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] At this time we have no additional questions. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Bosch for his closing remarks.

Mariano Bosch

Analyst

As you have seen during the call, we had a very promising first quarter. We believe we are in the right direction to finish the year delivering very good yields. We have developed one of the most efficient sugar-ethanol energy cluster which is already delivering results. And our Farming and Land Transformation business have performed and we are taking advantage of the new policies in Argentina. Our teams have done a great job in reaching levels of efficiencies and continue to explore more opportunities of improvements to enhance the returns of each business. So, look forward to seeing you in the upcoming Investor Relation event. Thank you for joining the call today.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen the conference has concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.