Charlie Hughes
Analyst · BTG. Please go ahead
Good morning, everyone. I would like to walk you through a few slides the reflect the main operational and financial highlights of the quarter. Let's start on page 4, where I would like to comment on the weather conditions in our cluster in Mato Grosso Do Sul. As you may see in the chart, during May we suffered some excessive rains which caused logistics and operational disruptions which were later compensated by a very dry June which allowed us to accelerate the pace of harvest. Overall, weather during the quarter was well aligned with the historical average. Moving on to the next Slide. I would like to focus on sugarcane milling. During the second quarter of 2015, our mills crushed 2.9 million tons of sugarcane compared to 2.1 million tons in the second quarter of 2014. This 36% increase is explained by two main factors. Firstly, milling per day increased by 22%, as a result of the ramp up of capacity at the Ivinhema mill together higher milling efficiencies in all of our mills. And secondly, the effective milling days increased by 11% primarily by the timely commissioning of the Ivinhema mill. On a year-to-date basis, sugarcane crushing reached 3.24 million tons, 54% higher year-over-year. In addition to the drivers I just explained for the second quarter, the commodity growth reflects our strategy of accelerating the start of the 2015 harvest in each of our mills in order to extend the season and increase annual sugarcane crushing. This will allow us to enhance our margins and dilute our costs. This strategy was made possible by our focus on minimizing the inter-harvest maintenance but most importantly, by the increase in sugar availability. Please now shift your attention to page six, where I would like to highlight a few agricultural productivity metrics. Over the last couple of years, we have focused on training and strengthening our agricultural team and improving our agricultural efficiency. Some specific areas we focused on had very good results include, effective implementation of pest control, selecting the best sugarcane variety for the region in terms of yields and TRS potential, allowing sugarcane to reach its optimum growth before harvest and re-planting sugarcane each year to renew and maintain the productivity of our plantation. These operational improvements are starting to show on our productivity leverage. As you may see in this chart, our sugarcane yields in the quarter have increased 26% while TRS increased by 7%. These two factors combined have resulted in a 34% increase in TRS per hectare. The same trend can be seen in commodity productivity for the first six months of the year, where TRS per hectare has increased 31%. Let's move to Slide 7. Sugar and ethanol output boosted during the quarter driven by the increase in sugarcane milling and the higher TRS. As you may see in the top chart, sugar production increased to 174,000 tons, making a 56% increase over the second quarter of 2014. Regarding ethanol, production stood at 113.5 thousand cubic meters, representing a 35% increase compared to same period of last year. Overall, this represents an increase of 44% in total production measured in terms TRS equivalent. Turning to Slide 8. I would like to comment on cogeneration. In the top chart, you may see that exported energy or in other words the energy which is sold to the grid, increased by 79% year-over-year and by 71% on a year-to-date basis. The growth in co-generation is explained by two main factors. First of all, the consolidation of a cluster has resulted in higher co-generation efficiencies. As you may see in the bottom chart, exported energy per ton of cane crushed reached 65 KWh/ton in the second quarter of 2015, 32% higher than the same period of the previous year. It is one of the highest co-generation ratios in the industry and we believe there is still upside for improvement. And secondly, the ramp up of the Ivinhema mill has expanded our milling capacity and boiler capacity. If you can please turn to Slide 9, I will proceed to comment on ethanol sales. As you may see in the chart in the middle, ethanol sales during the second quarter of 2015 were affected by weak price. Ethanol prices were affected by the seasonality of the harvest as mills in the Center-South of Brazil starting crushing and increasing supply of ethanol in the market. In addition, most mills have been maximizing ethanol production given shorter cash conversion cycle. Average hydrous prices in the second quarter of 2015 denominated in local currency decreased 1.3% compared to the previous year and 6.2% compared to the first quarter of 2015. In dollar terms, prices were also affected by the devaluation of the Brazilian real. The result of these two factors, or realized prices in dollar terms were 30% lower year-over-year. It's worth mentioning that during 2015, there has been a strong demand of hydrous ethanol mainly driven by the increase in gasoline prices. Hydrous ethanol consumption in Brazil year-to-date has increased by 43% but production has only increased by 16%. So [indiscernible] of the scenario in early June, we decided to minimize ethanol sales and begun storing ethanol in our tanks in order to capture more attractive prices in the inter-harvest season. This explains why our annual sales volumes increased only 24% compared to the production goal of 35%. On the chart on the right hand side, you can see how our inventory level had increased as a result of increase in [indiscernible]. Ethanol inventories grew by 68% reaching a total of 66.4 thousand cubic meters, which represents 59% of accumulated production compared to 47% in the second quarter of 2014. Now let's please turn to Slide 10, where I would like to discuss our sugar sales. If you take a look at the graph on the left, you may see that our sugar sales volumes during the second quarter of 2015 totaled 122.4 thousand tons, marking a 53% increase compared to the second quarter of 2014. The increase in volumes is the result of three main factors. One, our 36% increase in sugarcane milling, second a 7% increase in TRS, and third, a slight decrease in sugar inventories measured as a percentage of accumulated production, shown on the chart to the far right. As you may see on the chart in the middle, the increase in volumes was partially offset by lower sugar prices. A result of the global sugar surplus and weak sugar cycle, our realized sugar prices during the second quarter of 2015 were in average 19% lower than the prices in the second quarter of 2014. Nonetheless, total sales in the second quarter of 2015 reached 39 million, 32% higher year-over-year. Now let's please turn to Slide 11, where I would like to discuss energy sales. As you may see in the top chart, hydroelectric power in Brazil continued to suffer from the lack of water. Water levels at reservoirs remain at 5 years low. Despite this situation, on November 25, 2014, the Brazilian national energy agency decided to lower the ceiling price of energy from 822 reals to 388 reals per megawatt hour. Spot energy prices during the quarter traded at the price, half, as you can clearly see in the top right chart. Therefore, as you may see in the chart below, despite a 79% growth in volumes, our net sales grew by 31%. Our realized prices in dollars were also affected by the devaluation of the Brazilian real. Year-over-year prices decreased from $126 per megawatt hour to $92. Let's move to Slide 12, where we can see the overall financial performance of the sugar, ethanol and energy business. Total net sales during the quarter reached $86 million, 12% higher than same period of 2014. As explained during the previous Slides, the growth is mainly explained by the increasing sugar and ethanol sales volumes and partially offset by lower sugar, ethanol and energy prices. Adjusted EBITDA during the period increased from $36 million in the second quarter of 2014 to $41 million in the second quarter of 2015. Adjusted EBITDA margins in the same period expanded from 46% to 47%. This growth which has been primarily by higher sales, higher agricultural productivity which resulted in fixed cost dilution and partially offset by low prices. Now let's turn to Slide 13 to get an overview of our sugar hedge position. As part of our risk and commercial strategy, we mitigate price volatility by forward hedging across the forward and derivative markets. Despite the weak commodity prices environment, our commercial teams have been able to hedge prices above current market prices, protecting the company's cash flows. As of June 30, 3015, we had 390,000 tons of sugar from the 2015 and '16 harvest hedged at 15.5 cents per pound of sugar equivalent. Futures contracts at that time were trading at 12.7 cents per pound. Therefore, the mark-to-market of the position generated a gain of $12 million which is mostly realized. Related to the 2016 and '17 harvest season, as of June 30 we had 115,000 tons of sugar hedged at 14.6 cents per pound of sugar equivalent. Futures contracts at the time were trading at 13.9 cents per pound, thus generating an unrealized gain on that position of $1.8 million. Before moving on to other businesses, I would like to comment on our sugarcane planting activities on Slide 14. As you can see on the left hand chart, our sugarcane plantation has been consistently growing year after year at an average growth rate above 10%. We currently have 127.7 thousand hectares of sugarcane planted. In addition, considering the consistent increase in agricultural years over the last three years, we are very close to reaching a stabilized plantation size, which would allow us to supply our 10 million tens of nominal crushing capacity. This explains why sugarcane planting has slowed down in the second quarter of 2015 compared to the previous year, as you may see on the chart to the right. Let's now move on the farming business. We will now turn to Slide 16 of the presentation where I would like to given an update on the harvest of our most relevant crops. Implementation of a sustainable production model, together with the best practices such as crop rotation and no till among others, coupled with excellence in execution, have allowed us to achieve high yields despite average weather in the year. As you can see on the top left chart, as on July 2015, the harvest of soybean first crop was fully completed. Average yields achieved were 10% higher than the previous harvest season. These allowed us to produce over 200,000 tons of soybeans. The harvest of soybean second crop was also completed. Average yields reached 2.4 times per hectare, 26% above the 2013 and '14 harvest year. High productivity was driven by executing and efficient planting schedule. In the case of the corn crop, as of the end of July, total harvested area for early and late corn totaled 23,000 hectares or 74% of the total planted area. The average yields obtained so far were 6.2 tons per hectare, in line with the previous season. As you may see in this pie chart, in order to diversify our coverage and water requirements, approximately 29% of the corn was planted early in September whereas the remaining 71% was planting during November and December. The harvest is expected to be completed during the third quarter of 2015 and we expect corn yields to remain in line with current levels. Lastly, in the bottom right graph, you can observe that as of the end of July, the harvest of sunflower was completed producing over 20,000 tons. The average yield was 1.8 tons per hectare, in line with the previous harvest year. Let's move to page 17 where I would like to walk you through the financial performance of our farming business. In the case of crops, adjusted EBIT has decreased by 53% to $0.2 million. The reduction is primarily explained by $7.9 million, mostly in realized loss generated by the mark-to-market of our commodity hedge position. The year-over-year fall in commodities and the rising inflation in Argentina that has more than offset the nominal depreciation of the Argentine Peso, resulting in an appreciation of the currency in real terms, which increases our costs measured in dollars and putting pressure on our margins. These effects were partially offset by higher yields in most of our crops. Regarding the rice business, that 67% fall in adjusted EBIT is mainly explained by the combination of lower yields due to adverse weather and higher costs in dollar terms driven by the appreciation of the Argentine Peso in real terms. In the dairy business, we delivered solid operational performance in the quarter. We were able to capitalize the benefits of the consolidation of our free stall facilities, reaching our target level of 35 liters per cow per day. Consequently, milk production volumes increased 14% year-over-year driven by a 9% increase in productivity and a 5% growth in our dairy cohort. The gains from productivity were offset by lower milk prices and higher costs measured in dollar terms, resulting in an 8% decrease in adjusted EBIT. On an aggregate basis, despite higher productivity in our crops and dairy segments, consolidated EBIT decreased by 94% in the second quarter of 2015 and by 54% in the first six months of 2015 for the reasons I have just explained. Let's turn to page 18. As previously noted, we generated $7.9 million on realized loss related to the mark-to-market of our soybean and corn hedge position. This will [indiscernible] of the rally experienced by soybean and corn prices during the end of June. The increase in prices was bonded to lower than expected grain stocks in the United States coupled with excess rainfalls that created uncertainty regarding planted areas and yields. As you can see in the top chart, as of June 30, 165,000 tons of soybeans related to the 2015 and '16 harvest were hedged at 1,006 cents per bushel. The price of soybean in July futures contract as of June 30 was 1,014 cents per bushel, generating a mark-to-market loss. In the case of corn, 141,000 tons of corn were hedged at 436 cent per bushel compared to the contract future price of 446 cent per bushel as of June 30, also generating a mark-to-market loss. I would like to highlight that since mid-July, soybean and corn future prices have reversed and are now [called] [ph] at the same levels as before the rising commenced. As per the chart, the mark-to-market loss we booked in the second quarter has been fully reversed. Let's now turn to page 20, which shows the evolution of Adecoagro's consolidated operational and financial performance. On a consolidated basis, net sales decreased year-over-year from $197.5 million in the second quarter of 2014 to $164.6 million in the second quarter of 2015. The 17% decrease is primarily the result of lower price coupled with lower selling volumes in the crop segment explained by a late corn harvest. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2015 totaled $39.5 million compared to the $72.8 million in the second quarter of 2014. The $33.3 million gap in the financial performance is fully explained by the absence of a [farm] [ph] sales in the current quarter compared to the $25.6 million gain last year and the $7.9 million unrealized loss booked in the second quarter of 2015, related to the mark-to-market of our commodity hedge position compared to the $7.2 million gain in the second quarter of 2014. Let's move on to page 21. As you may see on the top left chart, our gross indebtness as of June 30, 2015, stands at $785 million while net debt stands at $622 million. I would like to highlight that 71% of our debt is in the long-term composed mainly of loans from multilateral banks such as the BNDES at very competitive rates as you can see on the bottom left chart. Finally, let's move to page 22 where I would like to comment on CapEx. As anticipated in our first quarter 2015 conference call, total CapEx is expected to slow down during 2015, driven by the completion of the Ivinhema mill and the consolidation of our sugarcane cluster in Mato Grosso Do Sul. We can already see the downward trend reflected in the current quarter. Capital expenditures during the six month period ending June 30, 2015, reached $96 million, 49% lower than the same period of 2014. As of today, no major growth project has been committed for 2016 and forward, therefore we expect CapEx to consist primarily of maintenance related to the sugar and ethanol business. This includes a financing of sugarcane to renew our plantations and the inter-harvest maintenance of milling and agricultural equipment. We expect CapEx to range between $140 million and $160 million in 2015 and between $70 million to $80 million in 2016. Combination of decrease in CapEx and increasing cash generation will allow Adecoagro to become cash flow positive by year-end and start generating attractive levels of free cash flows starting in 2016. Thank you very much for your time. We are now open to questions.