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Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO)

Q2 2014 Earnings Call· Sun, Aug 17, 2014

$13.67

+4.71%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro’s 2Q '14 Results Conference Call. Today with us, we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO; Mr. Charlie Boero Hughes, CFO; and Mr. Hernan Walker, Investor Relations Manager. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded and all participants will be in listen-only mode during the Company’s presentation. After the Company’s remarks are completed, there will be a question-and-answer section. At that time, further instructions will be given. (Operator instructions) Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro’s management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events, and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions; industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now, I’ll turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO. Mr. Bosch, you may begin the conference.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining our call. The company had shown excellent results for the second quarter in all our business segments. Now, let me highlight some of the more realigned achievements during the quarter before I pass the word to Charlie. We are in the beginning of the crushing season in the sugar ethanol and energy business. The business has shown a very good performance when compared to the same period of last year. Despite having the same nominal crushing capacity, we have crushed 20% more cane than last year. You can see us saying that the efficiency enhancements and improvements generating in our cluster in Mato Grosso do Sul are paying off. In terms of energy, we have already $40 and 120,000 megawatt hours, 40% more than last year and soy at very effective price. All this improvements are a direct consequence of the successful development of our operational teams we see without the drought, one of our primary focus. Regarding the expansion project, in the Ivinhema mill, which will have 3 million tons of nominal crushing capacity and consolidate our 10 million ton cluster in Mato Grosso do Sul construction is on time and on budget. As regards to our sugarcane plantation, our planting phase have doubled compared to the last three years. We’ve already planted over 19,000 hectares this year and expect to continue planting at this pace which will allow us to crush at almost full capacity by 2015. In our Farming and Land Transformation business, we are closing the 2013, 2014 season with - effect compared to last year. This is explained by higher operational efficiencies in our segments coupled with improved – with high return to their historical average. We are now fully focused on the new 2014, 2015 campaign working on new planting, the performance in our operations and we are getting prices with contractors and our structural input suppliers. Today, more than ever it’s highly important to be the lowest cost producer. Regarding our Land Transformation business, we continue to monetize part of our already transformed farms. During the quarter, we closed the transaction that represents a 28% premium to the Cushman & Wakefield independent appraisal. This sales reflects the execution of our strategy of monetizing our fully developed portfolio to reallocate our capital efficiency and generate attractive returns from the invested capital for our shareholders. I believe that our businesses are set on a good path. We are placing a lot of focus on continuing to improve efficiency in each one of our value chain allowing us to become the lowest cost per user in each one of our segments. Now, I would like to ask Charlie to walk you through the main operational and the financial highlights of the quarter. Charlie, please go ahead.

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Good morning, everyone. I would like to walk you through a few slides that reflects the main operational and financial highlights for the quarter. On Page 3, I would like to start by explaining an important change regarding our adjusted EBITDA metric. Under IFRS accounting, the sale of our non-controlling interest in our subsidiary accounted for us an equity transaction with no gain or loss recognized in the consolidated statement of income. Differences between the selling price and the book value are recognized in shareholder’s equity. This type of transaction had not been contemplated when the company originally defined its adjusted EBITDA in 2010. Management believes that the sale of a controlling or non-controlling interest in a subsidiary, whose main underlying asset is farmland, is a key element in its Land Transformation business. These sales will allow the company to monetize the capital gains generated by the transformation of undeveloped or underutilized farmland, thereby enhancing return on invested capital. Accordingly, we have decided to include the gains or losses from sales of non-controlling interests in subsidiaries in our adjusted EBITDA definition. I would now like to move on to the Farming business. Please direct your attention to Slide 5, where we compare the rainfall of the ten harvest seasons with some of the previous harvests. That shows the monthly rainfall evolution for our farms in Pampas region. The orange bar represents rain during the 2012 and 2013 crops and the green bar represents the 2013 and 2014 fall which has been recently added. Section 1 of the graph is an observed as the mean productive regions of Argentina, suffered lack of rain together with high temperatures from December 2013 to mid-January 2014. Accordingly, some of our crops such as sunflower and early corn which were either a critical flowering or…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Isabella Simonato with Bank from America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Isabella Simonato - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hello, good morning everyone. Thank you for taking questions. I would like to know more of the - what’s your view on the 2015? Are you considering the more challenging scenario for great margins – but at the same time, the expectation of a weaker peso and also the output for crops for the next season? Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Hi, Isabella, this is Mariano. As you mentioned, a weaker peso is a positive thing for our business. So that is the good part of our expectation for our next term. And then, of course, prices of commodities are more challenging. As you’ve seen in our reports, 80% of our corn is already hedged, that has already been fixed at a much higher price and generated prices and more than 50% of our soybeans that are our main crop. In rice, we are not seeing that decrease is prices, so, in rice because our important crop, we will continue to see similar prices to what we’ve been having. So we don’t so see a reduction there and we do see all the benefits of a weaker peso as we just discussed. And against here, the most thing that Charlie was mentioning and as I was also mentioning is the negotiations and all the discussions we are having today with our suppliers, contractors and all that part of the game. And within that discussion, it is not also important the agronomic part and the sustained financial model and to continue to have this operational efficiencies that year-by-year we continue to improve. Today, it is also important all this financial aspects of the negotiation. So today, we are focusing in examples like buying inputs, today, that we are going to be paying in 270 days, 16 pesos. So that’s part of the strategies we are using to reduce our general costs. In general, I think we are feeling we are being competitive in the cost that we will be achieving for our next crops and we feel comfortable with the hedges of our main crop.

Isabella Simonato - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Great, thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you and the next question comes from Ravi Jain with HSBC. Ravi Jain – HSBC: Hi. A little more on the strategy side and you continue to sell land in Argentina. What is your plan to reallocate this capital? And my second question is, how do you see farm land prices in the next 12 to 18 months, both in Argentina and in Brazil, given the softer commodity prices that we should expect? Do you expect to buy more land in Brazil or other parts of the region? Thank you.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Hi, Ravi. Yes, sure. On the first part of your question, we are allocating this capital of the sale of the farm paying back dollar-denominated debt that’s most of what we’ve done with the capital that we are receiving from the sale of the farm. And on the second part of your question, regarding farm land prices in general, I would say that there are two main sources. The lower commodity prices make farm land in general moved that one. And then, a weaker peso or a weakened currency for the local currencies in the country makes the farm land – the yields of the farm land better. So, that plays against making farmland prices going higher. So, in Argentina in particular with higher devaluation that made prices tend to move higher because of a higher returns that we are making on your part. But, regarding what we are doing, we are very specific on each particular deal. So, it always depends on the returns we are expecting for each particular farm when we are negotiating for buying and selling. So, there we see in most of the deals that we are negotiating and we always have open negotiations in terms of farms all over the region. We are not reaching the prices or the expectations on the returns on investment that we are or the IRRs that we are looking for the allocation of our capital. So, it will depend on every specific transaction. As you know, we are looking transactions in Brazil, Argentina, and also some other countries where we are not where we currently are not present there that product-wise. Bolivia and Columbia. So those are countries we are often visiting and trying to make this. Ravi Jain – HSBC: Thank you. That’s helpful.

Operator

Operator

Thank you and the next question comes from (Inaudible)

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, good morning everyone. My question is regarding the sugar and ethanol business. We know that the company had the strategy to carry ethanol into the next quarter and in fact if we look at the crushing in the quarter and in the first half of the year, it increased 20% compared to a year ago and when you look at sugar and ethanol volumes, it do not increase at the same pace. And my question is, at what price premium you would expect to sell this ethanol inventory compared to the selling prices that you have during the second quarter? Thanks.

Mariano Bosch

Management

Hi, Rodrigo. I am going to ask Marcelo Sanchez our Commercial Director to answer your question. Marcelo?

Walter Marcelo Sanchez

Analyst

Hi, Rodrigo, yes, even though the pace of the crushing at the first quarter was higher compared year-on-year we still think that the crushing volume will be lower and then the increase in the ethanol price is expected and we are currently foreseeing a possible range between 100 Reais and 160 Reais per cubic meter above cumulative.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

That was helpful. Thank you Mr. Mariano.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) And the next question comes from (Inaudible)

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes, hi, thank you for taking my question. Just wanted to know if you could please give us – again you saw an updated guidance in terms of your cane crushing and sugar and ethanol volume capacity over the next two three years given the updates in your new Ivinhema mill and other updates across the company.

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Sure. On the end of the season of 2014, our nominal crushing capacity for 2014 is 7.2 million tons in total and we feel or we have the cane to be very close to the full capacity. So, it will depend on how many rainy days or not rainy days we will end up having this 2014 year, but we feel very comfortable to reach the full crushing capacity. And for next year, we will be increasing the 3 million tons our crushing capacity. So, 2015 is where we see the 11.2 million tons of crushing capacity. But we don’t foresee being full crushing capacity at that time, that is why we’re pointing out in the presentation than the planting is doing great. So we will be closer that we probably won’t reach full capacity of the 3 million of the three additional million tons of crushing capacity will be reached in 2016. So that – our expected projection or guidance with regard to the real milling that we will be having in the future.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Understood. So as you say, 7.2 plus 3?

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Yes, exactly.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay, that’s lovely. Okay, okay and do you think you would remain with the mix along that 45% 55% ethanol sugar or how dynamic is that mix?

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Yes, that dynamic for the 2015 year – for 2014, I see that we will continue within more or less within the same. For 2015, we can change 60%, 40% is the maximum flexibility that we can have either side. So we see much higher prices of sugar, we will maximize sugar if we see higher prices of ethanol, we will maximize ethanol. Today, we are maximizing ethanol according to the current prices.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Excellent. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you and the next question comes from Santiago Ruiz with Raymond James.

Santiago Ruiz - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James.

Hi, Mariano, hi, Charlie, thanks for the questions. My question is regarding your share repurchase program. How aggressive do you expect it will be and then next month where are you with this?

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Sorry, Ruiz, what’s the question on the share buyback?

Santiago Ruiz - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James.

Yes, how far do you expect to be in the sense progress – in the next month regarding the share buyback?

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Okay, Santiago, as we mentioned in the earnings release, we will expand the program. But it will depend on – depending on our expected returns we will be deciding whether to buy or not in a monthly basis.

Santiago Ruiz - Raymond James

Analyst · Raymond James.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question comes from Thiago Duarte with BTG.

Thiago Duarte - BTG Pactual

Analyst · BTG.

Hi, thanks for taking the question and good morning everybody. A question on the land transformation and the sale that you announced for the quarter and I assume that you sold the 49% minority stake in the two subsidiaries that control the farms, the farming in Argentina. Just want to clarify why did you sell minority stake and not the totality of the farms and if there is a plan for any impediment for that to happen based on your land transformation strategies that we have seen in the past? Thank you. Hello.

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Yes, Thiago. There is no impediment to sell 100% or 49%. This was a particular case where there was an investor willing to buy 49% and he was willing to – have us being the operator of the farm and continue farming this farm. So we thought that was an interesting deal for us and we will continue to operate that farm.

Thiago Duarte - BTG Pactual

Analyst · BTG.

Perfect, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) And the next question comes from Vincenzo Paternostro from Credit Suisse. Vincenzo Paternostro – Credit Suisse: Hi, everyone. Thank you for the question. My first question is, on sugar price, when do you expect sugar prices recover? What’s your view on sugar price for this season and for the next season? And my second question is, I’d like to understand whether you plan to publish a new land portfolio appraisal in the short-term and if so, what’s the appreciation of land you are expecting to have?

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Hi, Vincenzo. I am going to answer your second question and then I want to pass a word to Marcelo Sanchez to answer your first question. So regarding the new land appraisal, yes, we will – during every September, Cushman & Wakefield makes independent appraisal and that will be released in our November earnings release. So, that is how we always do it and we will continue doing the same way this year. What do we expect on that evaluation with normal contribution in that evaluation, but as I mentioned before regarding prices of land in general, there are forces flowing in different ways. So, let’s see what we can see from them. And then, on your first question regarding the sugar prices and what we will expect there, Marcelo, can you answer this question?

Walter Marcelo Sanchez

Analyst

Yes, Vincenzo, good morning. Regarding the expectation for this year, for prices, as you may know – prices are really under pressure and last rainy day was – it was a very strong support at the 16 level and below that level for October. We are seeing that as the crushing in Brazil will be developing, crushing will be ending up before expectation due to the damage that drought affected – set this now for action and I think that the prices are still reacting under the lack of the month within this 12 months. And we could see prices pressure until November, December this year. But certainly, we are expecting a recovery in prices for March, July next year and it has to say the impact on that, but certainly we see better prices for 2015.

Charlie Boero Hughes

Management

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes the question and answer section. And at this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Bosch for any closing remarks.

Mariano Bosch

Management

So what you have noticed, we have a year full of challenges in all of our business segments. We are determined to continue in our growth path, but at the same time be very disciplined in maintaining our low cost of production. So this is our commitment creating value and generating attractive returns for our shareholders through the development and operation of a sustainable production model. Thank you very much for joining the call and look forward to speaking with all of you soon.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today’s presentation. You may now disconnect at this time and have a nice day.