Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) Q1 2013 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Adecoagro's First Quarter 2013 Results Conference Call. Today with us, we have Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO; Mr. Charlie Boero Hughes, CFO; and Mr. Hernan Walker, Investor Relations Manager. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded.[Operator Instructions] Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Adecoagro's management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and, therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Adecoagro and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements. Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Mariano Bosch, CEO. Mr. Bosch, you may begin your conference.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending our earnings call for the first quarter of 2013. We are really happy to announce that on April 26, we inaugurated the Ivinhema mill. The opening ceremony was held with the presence of representatives of government authorities and the majority of our stakeholders, whose support constituted a very important element of this success. The Ivinhema and Angelica mills will form a cluster that is expected to reach a milling capacity of 10.3 million tons, which we believe means will become one of the most efficient and low-cost producers of sugar, ethanol and electricity in Brazil and generates positive return on invested capital. In Angelica and UMA mills, we began the crushing season earlier than usual in order to benefit from attractive internal prices. Our commercial team has also done a very good job in hedging almost our entire sugar production at about $0.20 per pound. We are prepared for an excellent year for our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business. Moving on to our Farming business, we are well advanced with the harvest of our crops. As you know, our business is naturally exposed to weather risks, and we have gone through some tough weather conditions in the current year. Despite the lower production yield for the soybean crop, we expect to have better result for our rice and corn crops which were not so affected by the current drought. This is a clear example of how our product diversification allows us to mitigate risks associated to our business. Finally and continuing with our focus on return on invested capital, at the beginning of May, we sold our coffee farms in Brazil at a premium. We will confirm and wait for our appraisal. Now Charlie will explain the results of the quarter. Charlie, please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone. I would like to walk you through a few slides. Let me start with the main operational and financial highlights of the quarter. 2013 has been a challenging year for our crops business in terms of weather. The main productive regions of Argentina have been impacted by an abnormal lack of rain. The chart on the screen shows the rain distribution in the humid pampas and the Northwest region of Argentina compared to their historic levels. As you may see on the chart to the left, the humid pampas, or Argentine corn belt, was impacted by a severe drought during January and until mid-February. Rains during this period are critical for the soybean crop since the plant undergoes their first forming and grain seedlings [ph] at which point weather and climate peak. Therefore, the dry weather caused irreversible damage on the crop. Soybean second crop was also impacted in this region since the crop began its initial growth with very low humidity. In the chart to the right of the page, you will see that the Northwest region also suffered from drought, which began in January and was extended until April. As a result, soybean first and second crops were negatively affected. In the case of corn, which is traditionally planted in September and undergoes a critical development during December, the impact on yield was less significant in rain levels during this month were good, as you may see in the chart. As you may see on Page 3 of the presentation, the harvest of our crop is well advanced. As of the end of April, the harvest of wheat and sunflower was fully complete and rice was presently completed. [indiscernible] the previous crop season. Wheat yields were 30% below the previous year and below our expectation. This is explained by the following reasons. First, yields during the previous crop year had been exceptionally good due to very good weather. And second, in the current season, above-average humidity conditions entailed the outbreak of a grain disease known as fussarium across Argentina and Uruguay. In the case of rice, harvested yields were 5.7 tons per hectare, almost 5% higher than the previous harvest year. This yield increase is primarily a result of better rain distribution and temperatures for the crop. We believe there is a significant upside potential to our rice yields. We expect rice yields to gradually increase over the next 2 years as we continue with the transformation and zero-leveling process of our farms. Regarding soybeans crop, as of the end of April, we harvested 48% of the crop. The harvest began in our highest quality farms, and as a result, partial yields were higher than last year. We expect final yields to be slightly below the previous harvest year as a result of the drought experienced during January and mid-February of 2013. Moving to the right, you may see that 20% of the second soybean crop was harvested as of the end of April. We do not consider the yields observed over this small harvested area as a representative sample for the entire crop. Due to the drought mentioned in the previous slide, the lack of moisture prevented the normal development of the crop. Accordingly, we expect final yields to be slightly below the previous harvest year. Lastly, 28% of the corn area has been harvested. Early corn planted in September grew under good conditions since the flowering period of this crop is in mid-December, where rainfall and soil humidity were adequate. Seeking to diversify crop risk and weather requirements, approximately 1/3 of our corn was planted during the end of November and beginning of December 2012. These late planted corn areas had good humidity conditions during their initial growth stage. However, plant flowering took place between early and mid-February and was negatively impacted by lack of rain. In aggregate, we expect final yields to be approximately 15% above the previous harvest year. Let's move to Slide 4 to analyze the financial performance of the Farming business. Particularly in the crop segment, the decrease in sales was primarily driven by lower physical sales volume of wheat, as a result of a lower planted area and lower yields, as explained on the previous slide. On the other hand, rice sales increased by 36% as a result of the combination of 2 factors: first, a 5% increase in yields; and second, an 11.9% increase in planted areas compared to the previous harvest year. On a consolidated basis, total farming sales in the first quarter of 2013: wheat, $63 million, in line with those of the first quarter of 2012. Moving to the bottom chart of the slide, you will see that despite the decrease in sales, adjusted EBITDA for our crops segment increased from $12 million in the first quarter 2012 to $14.7 million in the first quarter of 2013. The improved performance is mainly explained by a $6.8 million increase in the results generated by the mark-to-market of our hedge facility, which was partially offset by lower gains on changes in fair value, primarily as a result of an 8.8% decrease in planted area and lower volume yields and prices expected. Moving to the right, you will notice that the adjusted EBITDA of our rice segment increased from $0.8 million in the first quarter of 2012. We have $4.6 million in the first quarter of 2013. This improvement is driven by the extension in planted area and higher rice yields. As a result, consolidated adjusted EBITDA for our Farming business reached to $18.8 million, obviously higher year-over-year. Let's move to Page 5. During early May, we sold the Mimoso and Lagoa do Oeste farms located in Western Bahia, Brazil. The farms have a total of 3,834 hectares, of which 904 hectares are planted with coffee trees. Adecoagro will collect a total of $20.8 million for Mimoso and Lagoa including the coffee plantation. The selling price represents a 7% premium to the combination of the Cushman & Wakefield independent appraisal dated September 2012 plus the fair value of the coffee plantation in our balance sheet. In addition, the buyer will also operate 728 hectares of coffee in our Rio de Janeiro farm during an 8-year period for which Adecoagro will collect a total of $3.8 million. This transaction evidences Adecoagro's focus on return on invested capital. Now let's move on to the Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business on Slide 6. The first 3 months of the year are commonly known as the inter-harvest season. During these summer months, due to favorable weather conditions, sugarcane plant growth is stimulated and less energy is stored in the form of sugar. As a result, mills suspend their crushing activities while their equipment undergoes maintenance in preparation for the upcoming harvest year. During the first quarter, mills also focus on the renewal and expansion of their sugarcane plantations. During the first quarter of 2013, we planted a total of 6,321 hectares of sugarcane, slightly below the hectares planted in the first quarter of 2012. From this total area, 2,400 hectares consisted of new planted areas to supply sugarcane to the Ivinhema mill, which began its crushing activities in April of 2013. Additionally, 3,900 hectares consisted of sugarcane replanting to replace old sugarcane with new high-yielding sugarcane to maintain the productivity of our plantation. As of March 31, 2013, our sugarcane plantation consisted of 87,900 hectares, representing 24% growth year-over-year. In Slide 7, you can see the financial performance of our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business. As a result of the inter-harvest season, adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter only reflects the sales of sugar and ethanol inventory, the expenses incurred in sugarcane maintenance and preparation for the next harvest season, hedging results and overhead expenses. As shown in the upper left chart, net sales for the first quarter of 2013 were in line with the net sales of 2012. And in the right, gross profit increased from $8.7 million to $16.6 million. The improvement in gross profit is primarily the result of a lower cost for the sugarcane use as raw material to produce the sugar and ethanol inventory sold during the first quarter of 2013 compared to the first quarter of 2012. The cost of sugarcane transferred to the mill for processing is directly related to the price of sugar. The sugar prices during 2011 were considerably higher than in 2012. Inventories sold in the first quarter of 2013 were produced with lower cost sugarcane compared to inventories sold in the first quarter of 2012. In addition, our operating margins were enhanced by the mark-to-market of our sugar hedge position. We have hedged 247,000 tons of sugar at an average price of $0.208 cents per pound of sugar [indiscernible] equivalent. Since current prices are below $0.18 per pound, our hedge generated a $9.6 million gain in the first quarter of 2013 compared to a $5.3 million loss in the first quarter of 2012. Overall, adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2013 was $15 million, $19.7 million higher than the first quarter of 2012. Page 8 shows the evolution of Adecoagro's consolidated financial performance during the last 3 years. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA for the company increased from $1.8 million in the first quarter of 2012 to $29 million in the first quarter of 2013. Adjusted EBITDA margin in between period has increased from 1% to 28%. We expect our earnings and return on invested capital to continue increasing as our business continues achieving operational and cost efficiencies and our $10 million [indiscernible] is consolidated. Moving to Page 9. Our debt outstanding at March 31, 2013 has increased by $54 million since the previous quarters for a total of $593 million. Long-term debt increased by $38 million, driven by the capital expenditures related to the construction of the Ivinhema mill. Short-term debt increased by $16 million. The first quarter of the year [indiscernible] working capital cycle since only a small portion of our crops are harvested and sold. And our Sugar, Ethanol and Energy business is getting ready to begin a new season. As we accelerate the harvest and selling phase in the second and third quarter, debt outstanding will be reduced. I would like to highlight that our debt structure is 66% in the long term. Our debt plan has decreased for the same reason from $218 million in the last quarter to $210 million as of March 2013. In aggregate, prior net debt stand at $383 million. Let's move to the last slide. On April 26, 2013, Adecoagro celebrated the inauguration of the Ivinhema mill located in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Ivinhema is a milestone event in our consolidation as a leading producer of food and renewable energy. The construction of the first phase of Ivinhema was completed on schedule and on budget. The Ivinhema mill currently has 2 million tons of crushing capacity and will expand to 4 million tons in 2015 and 6.3 million tons in 2017. Together with the Angelica mill, our first mill completed in 2010, it will form a 10.3 million ton cluster surrounded by over 120,000 hectares of sugarcane plantation, which we believe will allow us to become one of the most efficient and low-cost producers of sugar, ethanol and electricity in Brazil. Ivinhema has successfully commenced the 2013 and '14 sugarcane harvest, and we expect to crush approximately 1.5 million tons of sugarcane, producing sugar, ethanol and electricity for the local and international markets. Thank you very much for your time. We are now open to questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question we have comes from Fernando Ferreira of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

I had just a more strategic question. We're still seeing the stock traded meaningful discounts to its NAV. So I just wanted to ask you if this strategy could be to accelerate Farming sales in Argentina this year or not -- it's not something that's part of your plan.

It's Mariano. Yes, Fernando, our strategy is to sell farms in Argentina, and that has always been the strategy of the company. As you've seen last year, last year, we sold more than the previous one, and this year we are in line to continue executing the same strategy. And we think this should help. And again, always this is in line with our return on invested capital policy, so all the farms we are selling are because we think we can generate more attractive returns in new farms or in new businesses.

And how easy or how difficult has it been to sell farms in Argentina lately?

As we always mention, selling farms is not a super liquid market, and we all know this market, and it's not super liquid. But as I previously mentioned, last year, we sold more than the previous one and we improved sales, I think, by double. And we're still comfortable that we will continue with the same strategy this year in Argentina.

And next we have Rodrigo Mugaburu of Morgan Stanley.

I have 2 questions. One, can you give some guidance on what you're going to do with the proceeds from the coffee farm sales that you announced in the release. And the second, on the ethanol, can you give me some idea as to how much of the stocks, kind of the BRL 120, have you actually seen pass-through of an increase for [indiscernible] in that?

This is Mariano. Regarding your first question. The season of the sale of the coffee farm is in line with our return on invested capital policy, so we are going to invest these proceeds into businesses that are going to yield in line with our expected [indiscernible] and not what the coffee farms were yielding at this level of prices. And regarding your second question on the ethanol, I will ask Marcelo Sanchez to take that question. So Marcelo, please.

The positive asset [ph] on the measure is a given that we're going to be achieving part of the BRL 120 per cubic meter. It's a little bit early today to say how much will be achieved by the mill. But of course, a positive -- a maximum positive asset will be the BRL 120 per cubic meter. But besides that, we strongly believe that, that will be improving the parity of the ethanol at the farms. And that, of course, will be bringing an increase in consumption in the ethanol. Then we could have a doubled [indiscernible], one coming from the price and the other coming from volume.

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Federico Rey of Raymond James.

I also have a question regarding the sale of the Lagoa and Mimoso farms. You mentioned that the expected EBITDA adjusted to be coming from this sale is $8 million. I would like to ask if you have any estimate regarding, for example, pretax or after-tax gains and also if you expect a reversal of the hedging gains or hedging losses that are not included necessarily in the one that you have mentioned.

The EBITDA generated by the sale of the coffee is $8 million that we are mentioning, and the tax implication of that is only $0.5 million. So that's the total cash. It's the total tax implication on this sale. And we don't expect any reversals to the hedging that you were asking about.

And the next question we have comes from Thiago Duarte of BTG.

A couple of questions on the sugar and ethanol business. First, why is that you are not expecting to crush all the 2 million tons in the new Ivinhema mill? You mentioned in the release that you expect to be crushing 1.5 million tons this year. So I'm just wondering if it's related with weather or availability of sugarcane for some other reason. And the second question is a more generic one. I mean, you guys are one of the few companies investing in greenfield and brownfield capacity in the industry in Brazil. So I think the right question here would be why -- what would make you change your mind or make you project and in this case the extension on the Ivinhema mill?

I want to ask Marcelo Vieira, our Sugar and Ethanol Director, to take the first part of your question, and I will take the second one. So Marcelo, please?

Yes, the milling at Ivinhema mill this year will be 1.5 million tons, and that is according to plan. You have to have continuous growth and development of the plantation. So it has been planned from the start to have 1.5 million tons around the first season. That's also because it's the first season and we're still commissioning the equipment and adjusting the team. And next year we'll be at full capacity for first phase [indiscernible], and we'll keep growing for the second phase. It is already our plan to reach 4 million tons in 3 years. Mariano?

Yes, Thiago, regarding your question on why are we doing the greenfields and what's the reason behind our greenfield project and this Ivinhema mill that we've just inaugurated. It's important to understand that the Ivinhema mill is part of the growth of a cluster, so this is a marginal growth. And marginal growth in Ivinhema that we secured, where we have very low leases, we have availability of farms to plant the sugarcane and with excellent conditions to grow the sugarcane. Without very little competition, we'd rather different crops. So that's why we specifically grow this. We are seeing very attractive returns on investment. When we analyze the return on investment. And we think that we are getting through this marginal investment or marginal growth in order to complete a cluster. We are getting IRR well above what we are seeing in the market. It would to be a totally different story if we need to start a greenfield in a new area, where you have to develop from scratch everything. So that's why we are growing here in this cluster. We are completing Ivinhema, and we are very comfortable with the results we are achieving with this marginal growth of the cluster that we are developing.

[Operator Instructions] Next we have Giovana Araujo of Itaú BBA.

My first question is about Sugar and Ethanol. I would like to know what's going to be your strategy for ethanol commercialization this year. If you intend to hold inventories to sell at a better a moment, avoiding the peak of the crop. And what amount do you expect to export and what's the execution [ph] of ethanol export versus domestic allocation? That would be my first question.

I'm going to ask Marcelo Sanchez, our Commercial Director, to take your question.

We accelerated our sales at the very beginning of the crop, and now we are delaying them for the second half of May but not really -- not really because it was having an impact in our commercialization strategy. We are aware that there have been an opening in the extra window, and then we are really watching closely that alternative. And that is in line with our company to execute on the flexibility of arbitrage the best chance for getting the revenue return for the ethanol in our mill.

Okay. And my second question is about the risk for the yields. I would like to know what level of yields do we expect by the end of the crop in Argentina, the second crop?

We have the soybean mills in Argentina, and so we are expecting 48 million tons in total. That is roughly 3 million tons less year-over-year [indiscernible]. Argentina has had a good first soybean crop harvest. The soybean we've already harvested was 3.4 tons per hectare. It's really early to know what the final second crop on soybean [indiscernible] will be. But as I tell you, we are working with the 48 million tons of production.

Okay. But how about Adecoagro's yields? What level do you expect by the end of the crop?

As we mentioned, Giovana, we are expecting a slightly below 2012, so the previous year in our reach for soybean first crop and second crop. Probably soybean first crop is very slightly below, and second crop, a little bit more than slightly below.

The next question we have is from [indiscernible] of Crédit Suisse.

My question is on sugar price. What's your view on the sugar price for this season since the sugar price has been under pressure the last 6 months due to the expectation of a strong harvest season will do? So in your view, are we close to the bottom of the sugar price or do you expect price to continue to be under pressure in the next month?

I'm going to ask Marcelo Sanchez to take the question.

As you might have been following our performance in the hedging strategy, we have been focused regarding [ph] pricing within the last 6 or 7 months, and that's the reason we are today at well volume hedge from our current harvest. We do have 82% of the projected harvest already hedged at the level of $20.82. Then it's really early to say what the development will be for next year's price. You are witnessing in the charts for next year, we have $18.32. That is a positive price compared as today's price of $16.90. As we've said, I mean, there are many things to evolve until we see the next harvest price.

Well, it appears that we have no further questions at this time. We'll go ahead and conclude the question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Bosch for any closing remarks. Sir?

Okay. Thank you. And this is a year full of challenges in all our businesses, and we have excellent plans to execute our strategy while at the same time provide attractive results for our shareholders. The company today is in a very good condition, and all our operational teams are highly motivated to deliver during this campaign. Finally, I would like to invite you to participate at our [indiscernible] program. And thank you all for joining our call.

And we thank you, sir, and the rest of management for your time. We thank you all for attending. This does conclude today's presentation. At this time, you may disconnect your lines. Thank you, and have a great day, everyone.